CHICAGO | General Discussions

[VKChaz]

For context, article on both the under and over-counts.

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/19/10998...ennessee-texas

A follow-up survey the bureau conducted to measure the national tally's accuracy found significant net undercount rates in six states: Arkansas (5.04%), Florida (3.48%), Illinois (1.97%), Mississippi (4.11%), Tennessee (4.78%) and Texas (1.92%).

It also uncovered significant net overcount rates in eight states — Delaware (5.45%), Hawaii (6.79%), Massachusetts (2.24%), Minnesota (3.84%), New York (3.44%), Ohio (1.49%), Rhode Island (5.05%) and Utah (2.59%).

Not a huge suprise. Some numbers seemed off

[Kngkyle]

I wouldn't be surprised if almost all of the undercount was actually in Chicago proper.

[VKChaz]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

I wouldn't be surprised if almost all of the undercount was actually in Chicago proper.

Much of the likely dynamic behind the discrepany - e.g., immigrant populations - would have played out in other areas. Satellite cities like Rockford, the Quad Cities, central IL like Peoria.... Sheer scale would suggest Chicago proper was a big part, but some may have to do with which areas got people counted.

[sentinel]

Can any state take legal action for undercounting, especially when congressional representation is affected within that state?

[the urban politician]

The bottom line is that a lot of the undercount probably happened in Chicago

Which means Chicago’s population increased by a pretty decent amount.

Is it back over 2.8 million residents again?

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

The bottom line is that a lot of the undercount probably happened in Chicago

Which means Chicago’s population increased by a pretty decent amount.

Is it back over 2.8 million residents again?

If their estimate of undercounting is pretty accurate, then I'd bet money that it's over 2.8 million people currently. Obviously what I'm about to say is anecdotal but Chicago feels more crowded than when I moved away a handful of years ago. Some of the areas outside of downtown have more people on the streets and traffic is a much worse (way more cars on the road).

I have been "fighting" with people about this for years - all the data I had seen was showing a growing city overall. No, not everywhere is growing and everyone knows that - but there's some major growth in a large part of the city. I brought up many times how the number of persons in the labor force and were employed were pretty much the same or over the year 2000. If we remember, the official population of Chicago was nearly 2.9 million people. Even a net drop in 75K kids/teens in the city in that time period would give you 2.8M+ people.


I just found this from CMAP in 2020 saying how Illinois is at risk for an undercount. How right they were.
https://www.cmap.illinois.gov/update...ities-of-color

Fewer people in northeastern Illinois are filling out the census, putting the region at risk of a costly undercount. A new analysis of 2020 census data by the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning found that the region’s reduction in self-responses, compared to 2010, is concentrated in communities with large Hispanic and Black populations. The COVID-19 pandemic has made achieving a complete count more difficult at a time when maintaining government support is more important than ever.

Each of metropolitan Chicago’s seven counties has communities — urban, suburban, and rural — with below average response rates, including some areas with rates lower than 40 percent.

Honestly, after seeing the data, maps, and graphs on here - you have to wonder what the real population of cities including Chicago is. I mean, entirely possible the real population is over 3 million people here, close to 9 million in NYC, etc.

Originally Posted by sentinel

Can any state take legal action for undercounting, especially when congressional representation is affected within that state?

I'm not sure if it has to do with congressional representation, but Rahm tried to sue the Census Dept upon seeing the 2010 results. Rumor has it that the city was undercounted by a bit. He lost and no recount happened. I think the mayor of Aurora tried the same thing this time around.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by marothisu

I mean, entirely possible the real population is over 3 million people here.

2,746,388 + 252,406 = 2,998,794

Close, but no cigar


But seriously, if this undercount has any legs, it's a very safe bet that the city is back over 2.8M, surpassing 1990.

1980, we're coming for ya!

Is it possible that I might actually one day live in a Chicago that is more populous than it was when I was born (1976)?

Who woulda thunk it?

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

2,746,388 + 252,406 = 2,998,794

Close, but no cigar


But seriously, if this undercount has any legs, it's a very safe bet that the city is back over 2.8M, surpassing 1990.

Pretty sure it's over 2.8M. My comment about 3M is based on the CMap study. TONS of tracts just a few weeks before the deadline had less than 50% response rates. You just have to wonder how many people truly didn't fill it out. As they noted in the study, some tracts had 20 percentage points less response rate than 2010. That could be hundreds of people not counted per tract where that was true versus what was counted in 2010.

[bnk]

Not sure if this is true but this article stated we passed up PA and is the 5th largest state in population again. Anyone able to confirm this?

https://chicago.suntimes.com/columni...mn-rich-miller


If true someone is going to have to edit wiki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._by_population

[thegoatman]

Chicago has the second largest Mexican population behind LA. Y'all might call this a stretch, but I guarantee (along with the undercount) with many undocumented immigrants, Chicago population either touches or exceeds 3 million plus. This city has been losing population for decades yet we've been building apartments and condos like crazy? Even previously underserved areas like the south lakefront and parts of the west side are now filling up with population. I'm seeing tear downs and new builds in ENGLEWOOD! Just wanted to give my two cents...

And Pritzker released a tweet saying Illinois population is over 13 million for the first time which is nice. Fox News is probably pissed at this news

https://twitter.com/JBPritzker/statu...17252517228544

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by thegoatman

Chicago has the second largest Mexican population behind LA. Y'all might call this a stretch, but I guarantee (along with the undercount) with many undocumented immigrants, Chicago population either touches or exceeds 3 million plus. This city has been losing population for decades yet we've been building apartments and condos like crazy? Even previously underserved areas like the south lakefront and parts of the west side are now filling up with population. I'm seeing tear downs and new builds in ENGLEWOOD! Just wanted to give my two cents...

And Pritzker released a tweet saying Illinois population is over 13 million for the first time which is nice. Fox News is probably pissed at this news

https://twitter.com/JBPritzker/statu...17252517228544

Seeing that study with the massive swath of red on the map for sub 50% response rates really has me wondering about that. It's entirely possible. It makes you wonder about other cities too like LA, NYC, Houston, Dallas, Miami, SF, etc with large immigrant populations, especially ones with a large working class population. They all have to be undercounted right?

I was on Twitter and some people just genuinely wouldn't believe it even if you handed them directly the Census report. They'd call it propaganda first. Then you mention that red states like Texas, Arkansas, etc were also very undercounted. Then the smarter ones would be like "well, it says estimates!"


Also Englewood - I have not seen anything there with new construction. Canaryville yes. Washington Park, Woodlawn, Bronzeville yes. Englewood..? Only seen a few things like gas stations permitted before.

[thegoatman]

And along with Illinois being a top 5 population state, there is something I have mentioned here that I don't hear people talk about. Illinois economy is certain to cross the $1 trillion GDP mark this year, becoming the 5th trillion dollar state along with California, Texas, New York, and Florida.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...itories_by_GDP

According to the chart, Illinois has a higher annual GDP change than New York which is crazy to think about

[the urban politician]

Am I to assume that this “correction” will at some point put out some numbers for Chicago or Cook County?

I also can’t help but wonder what Steely Dan would do if it turned out that the entire undercount came from downstate. He would probably need to have at list 3 strong pints of IPA to numb the misery

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I also can’t help but wonder what Steely Dan would do if it turned out that the entire undercount came from downstate. He would probably need to have at list 3 strong pints of IPA to numb the misery

I'll gladly drink the 3 IPAs regardless....

But there is zero chance that the entire undercount occurred downstate.

Zero.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

I'll gladly drink the 3 IPAs regardless....

But there is zero chance that the entire undercount occurred downstate.

Zero.

In hindsight, that crazy decline in household size was probably the red flag of an undercount. It really should not be that different from Milwaukee or Philadelphia at worst.

The units are probably close to the accurate. There’s only so many legal units that can fit in most Chicago structures.

As for downstate, the local postman probably knows every single resident by name in those small towns. So Metro East is the only other location that could shift the statewide numbers.

[ardecila]

I don't think they have enough information to do an adjustment to the city or county-level numbers. The Census is what it is, we just have to accept that the numbers are not as accurate as they should have been.

[Randomguy34]

Hmm, a larger population than expected might help explain why the city's 2023 deficit is dropping faster than expected. Lightfoot last month suggested there might even be a $200 million surplus.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

Hmm, a larger population than expected might help explain why the city's 2023 deficit is dropping faster than expected. Lightfoot last month suggested there might even be a $200 million surplus.

Illinois income tax revenue is growing very strongly and we did not increase taxes (thanks be to God) so either people are earning more, there are more people or a combo.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

Hmm, a larger population than expected might help explain why the city's 2023 deficit is dropping faster than expected. Lightfoot last month suggested there might even be a $200 million surplus.

Part of the reason they stated is due to higher than anticipated real estate transactions. As we know there is a transfer tax like most places.

[marothisu]

Lol IPI response is so weak. It's basically

"Illinois estimated loss was over 230K from 2010 to 2020 but Decennial Census was 18K loss. The most recent estimate shows 100K+ loss. You should trust those estimates despite the same ones being shown to be very far off after the real count was done"

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/pritz...pulation-boom/

Also, it's funny how everyone cites UHaul data. Theres so many companies that perform moves anywhere. The first time I moved into Illinois, it was my parents van. When I moved out, it was a national company who does everything for you. When we moved back last fall it was a national company who does everything for you. When we moved recently from our apartment in the city to our new condo, it was a local company who does everything for you. Pretty sure UHaul data is not the only to consider.