The US Census Bureau thread

[Acajack]

Yes, that's exactly what is happening. Even people from high fertility countries and cultures see their birth rates drop precipitously after only a generation or two in Canada. There may be a few exceptions but they are quite rare.

[Doc_Love]

The Canadian conundrum so much space so few people in such a rich land. I’m not very knowledgeable about Canadian immigration policy except there’s the Big Canada plan or whatever it’s called to have a respectable population for a G7 nation by the time many European and East Asian nations hit that demographic crisis.

Immigration is a good thing it’s been tried and tested from Rome to America and when done well the best ideas are adapted in and it was non Italians that pulled Rome out of the 2nd century crisis. The kind of migration caused by climate change (we don’t know for sure but Roman agricultural production dropped all across the Empire on a couple different occasions. Of course there were a few hordes of steppe horsemen driving immigration into Rome to its benefit when done well. Valintinian is one of the worst emperors by playing politics with Goth lives while dividing them between in and out to encourage his favor. Backfired with him killed at the Battle of Adrianople and his legion scattered. Broke the frontier lines in a huge way for the first time since the worst days of the second century.

We’re not even in the same game let along league or ballpark as Rome of the late 4th century (300’s ad).

I’m very much pro-immigration I’d like more immigration here in Michigan. Yet companies do take advantage of non-citizens and visia holders asylum seekers and straight up border crossers. It pushes wages down strong population growth needs to match up with strong economic growth, there is a bit of chicken or the egg. Even a with a speedy citizenship process too much immigration from less developed and culturally linked countries has its potential issues.

Generally getting highly skilled immigrants has very little downside maybe stirs up a bit of nationalism but the results tend to speak for themselves. Another country’s tax dollars have paid to make this person or family valuable with no input of the country’s own tax payers. People are people but poorly educated people tend to pay off in generations the parents work exceptionally hard to get their kids a good education and a shot at college. That’s a long term investment and like all needs to be handled well.

Americas broken system just provides cheap labor with deportation threats keeping wages down and take kids out of schools paid by taxpayers. Exploitation is a word for it as well as political theater like Roe V Wade was supposed to be for those who got the memo. So I’ve heard suggested. As to why the GOP like pissing off 51% of the population as Don Porfiro said now they let the tiger lose let’s see if they can control it, (the Mexican Revolution yet highly tragic yet very interesting, shout out to Mike Duncan Podcast) they can’t control it. By creating cultural wars by hijacking the response to the hippy movement and civil rights movement, promoting the evangelical movement as stoking its fear and dangling hope if we can just win enough. Knowing the consequences of actually overturning Roe in this day and age would be bad for women and their partner at least and nuclear family unit probably does as well. Not all women are upset some are happy but they were locked in die hard voters it was a political mistake that’s still unfolding.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Doc_Love

Another country’s tax dollars have paid to make this person or family valuable with no input of the country’s own tax payers.

This has been the economic development strategy in the southern US since reconstruction.

The Northeast, Upper Midwest, and more recently, West Coast provide societal goods like strong public education and health care...and large company owners say...tHe TaXeS aRe ToO HiGh...then they take millions if not billions of dollars in subsidies to move to (insert southern state here....Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, Texas, etc etc). Only, they import their workers who were educated in higher tax states with them. And Americans (and our fascist press) are too stupid to recognize why it's happening and buy into the same old economic tropes.

Rinse repeat ad nauseum for the past 150+ years.

[C.]

When will State population estimates be released?

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Originally Posted by C.

When will State population estimates be released?

Likely someday this week. They've been released in the 19th~22nd range of December in the past three years.

[C.]

Originally Posted by IcedCowboyCoffee

Likely someday this week. They've been released in the 19th~22nd range of December in the past three years.

Thanks!

I know the estimates are taken with a grain of salt, but any predictions?

My guess is NY’s population has stabilized. Also, FL’s growth might slow due to the hurricanes and the resulting property insurance crisis. PR will also see population loss.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by C.

Thanks!

I know the estimates are taken with a grain of salt, but any predictions?

My guess is NY’s population has stabilized. Also, FL’s growth might slow due to the hurricanes and the resulting property insurance crisis. PR will also see population loss.

Can't wait to see the latest results. Hopefully things aren't as undercounted as they've been the last 2-3 years. The 2022 results were disastrous for a lot of places. Same with the July 2023 estimates. Utter garbage.

There's no way the New York–Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA lost almost 3 percent of the population. Utter rubbish. Maybe that's what the drones are for... to accurately count folks.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by chris08876

There's no way the New York–Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA lost almost 3 percent of the population. Utter rubbish. Maybe that's what the drones are for... to accurately count folks.

Yeah, seems absurd. That would put NY metro back into 1970s territory, when the region saw rapid abandonment in many urban neighborhoods. We're not seeing anything like that on the ground now. If anything, the urban development machine is as strong as it has been since the 1950s

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Can't wait to see the latest results. Hopefully things aren't as undercounted as they've been the last 2-3 years. The 2022 results were disastrous for a lot of places. Same with the July 2023 estimates. Utter garbage.

There's no way the New York–Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA lost almost 3 percent of the population. Utter rubbish. Maybe that's what the drones are for... to accurately count folks.

I have no idea one way or the other what numbers to expect for that, but a place can have building cranes sprouting like weeds and still be experiencing a population shrinkage even if it doesn't feel like it.

I don't have the numbers on hand but I would not be surprised to find out that the median age for the NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA is higher than the national median age. As the massive boomer generation begins reaching the u.s. life expectancy (which its oldest members just did since it has been 78 years since the end of the war) older population areas will feel the effect of their gradual passing more acutely and sooner than other areas. It's sad to consider, but that seems to be the incoming demographic shift.
I do see that these states which make up the CSA have some of the highest median ages in the country.

Florida is a huge outlier for the obvious reason that it is Florida and its migration has been massive in recent history.

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by chris08876

There's no way the New York–Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA lost almost 3 percent of the population. Utter rubbish. Maybe that's what the drones are for... to accurately count folks.

Those drones are collecting the worst and complainiest of that region and dropping them off down here to Florida!

[mhays]

The estimates have their flaws and the counts have their flaws. It's not clear to me that the estimates are any worse.

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

And just to illustrate the point a little bit with an overly simplified scenario:

Imagine a neighborhood. In every unit of housing in the neighborhood there lives an elderly couple, either together on their own or they are sharing a home with other family members.
One member from every elderly couple in the neighborhood could tragically pass away, and, while the population has shrunk as a result, every single unit of housing in the neighborhood still remains occupied. So, even though the population has shrunk considerably, new housing still needs to be built for whoever wants to move into the neighborhood.

I hope that didn't come across as callous in any way, I don't mean for it to, but I just wanted to illustrate the dynamic that could be at play when a population is shrinking but a building boom is still occurring. It's the difference between the deathrate being the driving factor behind a population shrinkage versus the outward migration rate being the driving factor, which it was in the 1970s.

Of course this dynamic is occurring everywhere at all times, but its effects would be more pronounced where populations are older than others.

[mhays]

There's undoubtedly some effect from all that. However a large percentage of older people live alone. That would suggest significant opportunity for younger people to move in when the old people die.

Shrinking households are often the culprit when places show surprising population decreases. Sometimes it's a local reflection of people having fewer kids at the societal level. Sometimes it's neighborhoods gentrifying and replacing a lot of six-person households with two-person households.

[ChiSoxRox]

Looks like estimates drop tomorrow morning:

News Release: Total Population and Components of Change Estimates for the Nation, States, and Puerto Rico; Voting-age Population Estimates for the Nation, States, and Puerto Rico Commonwealth

Thu Dec 19 2024 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM | US/Eastern

There's usually a 48 hour news embargo to let media write articles, but perhaps this close to the holidays they're just being posted.

[mhays]

In the internet age, it's asinine that the public wouldn't get the data immediately. The media can still release it (usually badly) to the non-obsessed people.

[chris08876]

Census data is like Narcan for the folks on SSP. They should prioritize the release of the data to the urbanism community first, otherwise we just vomit in suspense.

But I think we are all eager. Hopefully the accuracy improves this time around.

And we need it much more than Rolling Stone, CNN or the Daily Bongo!

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Here we are:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...migration.html

https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...ta/tables.html

[ChiSoxRox]

(Typical grain of salt but)

Nice growth! California almost got back to its 2020 number, DC breaks 700k, New York state adds 130k

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

(Typical grain of salt but)

Nice growth! California almost got back to its 2020 number, DC breaks 700k, New York state adds 130k

Probably alot of those people who moved during covid and are coming back.

I told people last year on here the social media "noise" of that happening was going to reflect in real numbers soon. And it has.
The noise of people being unhappy in Texas and Florida or Arizona has gotten really loud- tons of people saying they want to move back to CA.

I expect more this this trend the next few years. Covid trends are dead.

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Probably alot of those people who moved during covid and are coming back.

I told people last year on here the social media "noise" of that happening was going to reflect in real numbers soon. And it has.
The noise of people being unhappy in Texas and Florida or Arizona has gotten really loud- tons of people saying they want to move back to CA.

I expect more this this trend the next few years. Covid trends are dead.

For those states their growth is driven entirely by international migration and births, not people moving back. According to these numbers, net domestic migration for California was -239,575 and for New York it was -120,917. That gives them among the worst domestic migration rates in the country.

Texas, Florida, and Arizona still have strong positive net domestic migration numbers with +85,267 and +64,017 and +34,092 respectively.

So more existing U.S. residents are still moving out of California and New York than are moving in, and more people are moving in to Texas, Florida and Arizona than are moving out.
But international migration has helped ensure Cali and NY has experienced positive growth.