Heavy Rail, Commuter Rail, & Intercity Transportation

[logan5]

Originally Posted by MistyMountain

Without debating hypotheticals we can estimate the costs; assuming the line is already going to downtown Surrey you can calculate the cost for an electrified line to Pacific Central pretty easily and then figure out if its worthwhile compared to other projects. You can break it up into 3 sections:

Surrey -> New West: Likely bored tunnel under the Fraser. Assuming the stop is somewhere close to downtown it'd probably be about 5km. Current costs for railway tunnels alone (no stations etc.) seem to run somewhere between $200M-$300m/km. So this portion would be about $1.25B.

New West -> Start of Grandview Cut: This portion is about 16km. The cost to build just the rail is about $10m/km, but there will be significant land acquisition costs and some bridges over roads etc. so we can estimate $100M/km conservatively. About $1.5B for this section.

Grandview Cut -> Pacific Central: About 3km. Same costs roughly as the Fraser River, but in a bit more built up area so ~$1B.

A few stations with pass through for HSR could allow the development of a regional rail type service to take the load off of SkyTrain and run to South Surrey and Whiterock. These usually run about $100M each so maybe another $300M.

Add in another $200M for renovations/upgrades to Pacific Central.

The whole project would come in somewhere around $4.5B. It's expensive, but given the significantly increased ridership and the dual purpose of being able to also have it double as regional rail backbone I think it makes sense. It'll ultimately boil down to how much the ridership projections/economic benefit compare against other projects.

Getting a 500km HSR line into downtown Vancouver for 4.5 billion is like winning the lottery. You absolutely say yes to that. Getting a high speed commuter service on top of that is the deluxe gravy.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Rather, you build all the other $4.5 billion projects that're more important, and then you say yes.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Rather, you build all the other $4.5 billion projects that're more important, and then you say yes.

...and lo and behold, it'll take a long time before you run out other 4.5 billion projects that are more important.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

...and lo and behold, it'll take a long time before you run out other 4.5 billion projects that are more important.

I mean, TransLink should be getting diminishing returns for SkyTrains after 2055...

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I mean, TransLink should be getting diminishing returns for SkyTrains after 2055...

Do you think by then they will have covered enough of the Lower Mainland?

[mcj]

Originally Posted by logan5

Getting a 500km HSR line into downtown Vancouver for 4.5 billion is like winning the lottery. You absolutely say yes to that. Getting a high speed commuter service on top of that is the deluxe gravy.

Absolutely, if the Americans are going to fund everything on their side of the border and we only need to fund the infrastructure on our side this is an incredible ROI. 500 km of high speed rail and high speed commuter service which acts as Expo Line relief. Throw in a stop at Lougheed and South Surrey/Cloverdale or North Langley/Aldergrove depending on the chosen route.

In the distant future we could eventually build a connecting spur line out to Chilliwack like so many on this forum have been asking for, follow the Japanese model and build a single station at a time with high density development around it to pay for it.

[casper]

Originally Posted by logan5

Getting a 500km HSR line into downtown Vancouver for 4.5 billion is like winning the lottery. You absolutely say yes to that. Getting a high speed commuter service on top of that is the deluxe gravy.

If this provides overflow capacity for the Expo line.

That allows upgrade project to accommodate longer Expo trains to be pushed out a few more decades into the future.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Those are some pretty big "ifs" - there's a good chance that 100% of service will be between Vancouver and Portland, in which case Surrey service would be filled by local-service trains coming and going from Bellingham. No-go on the Valley.

Also, the 2055 ridership estimate is 3.3 million riders a year: a pretty bad ridership-cost ratio when you realize the Canada Line does that every three weeks. A tunnel should get the green light, but not ahead of all the other projects we've got.

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Do you think by then they will have covered enough of the Lower Mainland?

Hard to tell. Depends on what's left by then; without billions of federal or private sector funding, a downtown HSR tunnel should be somewhere between a West End and a Canada Line extension.

[wabooba]

Originally Posted by mcj

Absolutely, if the Americans are going to fund everything on their side of the border and we only need to fund the infrastructure on our side this is an incredible ROI. 500 km of high-speed rail and high-speed commuter service which acts as Expo Line relief. Throw in a stop at Lougheed and South Surrey/Cloverdale or North Langley/Aldergrove depending on the chosen route.

Yes, I think you're right. A stop in South Surrey might be the genesis for an associated Valley commuter rail system. And yes, the way things are, build a station and the development will soon follow.
I would want a downtown terminus though, in any scenario. Although Pacific Central is the more practical station for several reasons, getting access for it to Waterfront would be a transit nexus tying in West Coast Express, Skytrain, Seabus, and Canada Line to YVR. And, if plans to make a transport hub are already being considered, the Waterfront Station terminus for HSR is all the more relevant, I think.

[Unregistered User]

Originally Posted by Sheba

Ah but how many people would use that route vs how many people would use a route that has a few stops in-between. Translink's busiest skytrain stations are:

1) Waterfront (combines Expo and Canada line numbers)
2) Metrotown
3) Commercial-Broadway (combines Expo and Millennium line numbers)
4) Burrard
5) Granville
6) Joyce-Collingwood
7) New Westminster
8) Vancouver City Centre
9) Surrey Central
10) King George

So depending on where this new rail would be, you'd be connecting the two Surrey stations (at 9 and 10) with one or more of the downtown Van stations (1, 4, 5 and 8) or alternately with Commercial-Broadway (3).

Meanwhile you're completely skipping out on Metrotown (2), Joyce-Collingwood (6) and New Westminster (7).

This also ignores that the crush loads of rush hour haven't picked up as much as the rest of the day, or that the downtown Vancouver stations will be less busy once the Millennium Line extension along Broadway connects with the Canada Line.

...or that we'll be allowed to run local rail on this HSR line

Add a stop at Brentwood. Then hop on the future North Shore SkyTrain Line and take it 2-3 stops to Metrotown.

[Unregistered User]

Originally Posted by mcj

Absolutely, if the Americans are going to fund everything on their side of the border and we only need to fund the infrastructure on our side this is an incredible ROI. 500 km of high speed rail and high speed commuter service which acts as Expo Line relief. Throw in a stop at Lougheed and South Surrey/Cloverdale or North Langley/Aldergrove depending on the chosen route.

In the distant future we could eventually build a connecting spur line out to Chilliwack like so many on this forum have been asking for, follow the Japanese model and build a single station at a time with high density development around it to pay for it.

I can't imagine them wanting to pay for much of the route north of Bellingham.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by wabooba

Yes, I think you're right. A stop in South Surrey might be the genesis for an associated Valley commuter rail system. And yes, the way things are, build a station and the development will soon follow.
I would want a downtown terminus though, in any scenario. Although Pacific Central is the more practical station for several reasons, getting access for it to Waterfront would be a transit nexus tying in West Coast Express, Skytrain, Seabus, and Canada Line to YVR. And, if plans to make a transport hub are already being considered, the Waterfront Station terminus for HSR is all the more relevant, I think.

Originally Posted by Unregistered User

Add a stop at Brentwood. Then hop on the future North Shore SkyTrain Line and take it 2-3 stops to Metrotown.

That's assuming the HSR owners are willing to share their railway with other train lines. It's probably going to be Vancouver, Surrey, Bellingham, the end.

[wabooba]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

That's assuming the HSR owners are willing to share their railway with other train lines. It's probably going to be Vancouver, Surrey, Bellingham, the end.

no Seattle???

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by wabooba

no Seattle???

I'm talking about our part of the line. No Metrotown, no Brentwood, definitely no Abbotsford.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Hard to tell. Depends on what's left by then; without billions of federal or private sector funding, a downtown HSR tunnel should be somewhere between a West End and a Canada Line extension.

What I meant was that there are enough new lines and extensions that I feel Translink will be building into the 2050s. I am expecting that UBC will open early 2030s, and then a decade for Surrey and Langley extensions. Then comes the North Shore line. I feel that the Federal government will fund it to either Waterfront, or Pacific Central.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

...I am expecting that UBC will open early 2030s, and then a decade for Surrey and Langley extensions...

According to the BC Government's website, the SLS project is projected to open in late 2028. Are you thinking it might be significantly delayed in favour of UBC, or are you referring to other possible extensions in the Surrey-Langley area?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

What I meant was that there are enough new lines and extensions that I feel Translink will be building into the 2050s. I am expecting that UBC will open early 2030s, and then a decade for Surrey and Langley extensions. Then comes the North Shore line. I feel that the Federal government will fund it to either Waterfront, or Pacific Central.

You forgot the Hastings and Willingdon Lines (whichever's left over), the 41st Line and the Newton extension. Not sure how useful the Port Coq extension will be, but it's also part of Network A. All of those are ahead in the queue.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

According to the BC Government's website, the SLS project is projected to open in late 2028. Are you thinking it might be significantly delayed in favour of UBC, or are you referring to other possible extensions in the Surrey-Langley area?

Sorry, I wasn't sure of the order of the 2.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

You forgot the Hastings and Willingdon Lines (whichever's left over), the 41st Line and the Newton extension. Not sure how useful the Port Coq extension will be, but it's also part of Network A. All of those are ahead of the queue.

Lets say each of those take 5 years. There are about 6 more lines/extensions to be done. If each take 5 years, and this current one is on time, that easily takes us to the 2050s or later.


Regardless, I feel this will fall under Via and will see federal funding. Translink won't be spending anything on it.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Regardless, I feel this will fall under Via and will see federal funding. Translink won't be spending anything on it.

If this idea ever progressed, it would probably be a new entity that runs it - neither Amtrak nor VIA. (The model we have is the California High Speed Rail currently being built).

The point about funding is that there's a finite transportation budget, and if federal dollars fund HSR, then they won't be available to be allocated to TransLink expansion. Especially as the rest of Canada will view it as 'Vancouver transportation funding'.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Changing City

If this idea ever progressed, it would probably be a new entity that runs it - neither Amtrak nor VIA. (The model we have is the California High Speed Rail currently being built).

The point about funding is that there's a finite transportation budget, and if federal dollars fund HSR, then they won't be available to be allocated to TransLink expansion. Especially as the rest of Canada will view it as 'Vancouver transportation funding'.

I would assume this would fall under Via and Amtrak because:
1) it crosses international borders
2) it crosses more than 1 state line (potentially)

This project could stir massive funding elsewhere in Canada for HSR. It could be the kick this country needs for real passenger service funding.