The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread - Page 150

Truenorth00 · #**2981** Posted **Nov 5, 2023, 4:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Pepsi and Walmart made the biggest Tesla Semi pre-orders. We'll see who gets the most access to them as they ramp up production in 2024.

Tesla isn't the only OEM making electric semis. It's average more interesting to see what the traditional OEMs are doing.

Truenorth00 · #**2982** Posted **Nov 5, 2023, 4:11 PM**

Just some charts for our resident Hydrogen stan.

And here's why hydrogen is even losing the fight for heavier applications like transit buses:

lio45 · #**2983** Posted **Nov 5, 2023, 4:16 PM**

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2023/11...ts-in-q3-2023/

Record EV sales in the U.S. -- on track to be in the seven figures this year.

Tesla marketshare falling quickly.

lio45 · #**2984** Posted **Nov 5, 2023, 4:17 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Tesla isn't the only OEM making electric semis. It's average more interesting to see what the traditional OEMs are doing.

I'm neutral wrt Tesla (not a fanboi nor hater) and I'm not paying THAT much attention to the field, so I'm a good "sample", and if you asked me to name an EV semi, it would be the Freightliner one (it made the news last year, IIRC).

lio45 · #**2985** Posted **Nov 5, 2023, 4:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yeah if only they invented a liquid fuel that would let you work a full day.

Sure, I'd indeed be burning dead dinos for logging in 2023 if I ever needed to "work a full day", which I don't. Long-term forest management is a hobby for me. In fact I've cut pretty big trees in the past using a (very sharp, high quality) hand saw. I file that in the "time spent doing gym" category, except I'm not paying to access a gym

Truenorth00 · #**2986** Posted **Nov 5, 2023, 4:41 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2023/11...ts-in-q3-2023/

Record EV sales in the U.S. -- on track to be in the seven figures this year.

Tesla marketshare falling quickly.

The total number is less important than the relevant number. This part:

Quote:

....EV sales climbed to 7.9 percent of all vehicle purchases during Q3 2023 compared to 6.1 percent in Q3 2022, Cox revealed.

Generally, it's been found that once the 5% threshold is crossed (the tipping point), EV marketshare grows more steadily and quickly. Norway's experience shows their sales reaching about 80% in 7-8 years. Assuming less aggressive policy than Norway, but more favourable technology trends than they had, I think 80% in 10 years is likely.

lio45 · #**2987** Posted **Nov 5, 2023, 4:44 PM**

Yeah, I didn't bother to quote too much of the article (I knew anyone interested would simply read it!) but I also found that data point to be the biggest story:

tl;dr version of the entire article: last year at this time EVs were 6% of total sales, this year they're up to 8% (and climbing).

Innsertnamehere · #**2988** Posted **Nov 5, 2023, 4:55 PM**

Do we know if the number of ICE vehicles on the roads has peaked or not? I.e. does the EV market share in new vehicles offset the overall growth rate of total vehicles on the road.

Truenorth00 · #**2989** Posted **Nov 5, 2023, 5:03 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Do we know if the number of ICE vehicles on the roads has peaked or not? I.e. does the EV market share in new vehicles offset the overall growth rate of total vehicles on the road.

Bloomberg said in March that looking back at data, ICEV sales peaked in 2017 and are now in structural decline.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-sales-goodbye

Nice little preview from the UK (about 2-3 yrs ahead of us):

https://carbontracker.org/one-in-thr...sforms-market/

Innsertnamehere · #**2990** Posted **Nov 5, 2023, 5:09 PM**

That’s a peak in ICE sales - I’m looking for # of vehicles on the road including existing vehicles.

I imagine it’s peaked as well, especially in western markets, but it would depend if the # of EVs getting sold every year exceeds the overall growth rate of the vehicle fleet.

lio45 · #**2991** Posted **Nov 5, 2023, 5:11 PM**

That wasn't exactly his question: he was wondering whether the volume of ICEVs sold new currently exceeds the yearly scrapping of older ICEVs, or not.

i.e. is the number of ICEVs on the roads still growing every year (the total number of vehicles is growing, but 8% of the growth is EVs) or has it started to go down?

For pollution purposes, it's a relevant number -- how much ICEVs we have operating on our roads. It's going to be a nice milestone when the pool of ICEVs out there starts to go down rather than up.

(edit -- Innsertnamehere beat me to it

)

Truenorth00 · #**2992** Posted **Nov 5, 2023, 5:34 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

That’s a peak in ICE sales - I’m looking for # of vehicles on the road including existing vehicles.

I imagine it’s peaked as well, especially in western markets, but it would depend if the # of EVs getting sold every year exceeds the overall growth rate of the vehicle fleet.

From what I've read, the developed world has reached peak car. Ownership rates in many countries are actually flat or even starting to decline.
The Global South, however, has a ways to go. Those Bloomberg figures, however, are for global auto sales. Globally we're about 7-10 years away from the point where new ICEV sales fall under the number of ICEV cars scrapped annually (27-30M).

It's going to be an interesting decade for sure. There's already financiers trying to model when to cut off financing for ICEVs because the tail end of the adoption curve crushes their residuals making them bagholders. Nice little dance going on between the financial markets and legacy automakers who need financing for current sales to continue unhindered so they can transition.

Truenorth00 · #**2993** Posted **Nov 5, 2023, 5:44 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

For pollution purposes, it's a relevant number -- how much ICEVs we have operating on our roads. It's going to be a nice milestone when the pool of ICEVs out there starts to go down rather than up.

Actual retail gasoline consumption has peaked in most developed countries. It's not just EVs. New ICEVs are more efficient too. Working patterns have changed (more WFH and hybrid). More public transit investment too. In general, it's a lot easier to get by with fewer cars and drive the ones you own less.

There's actually some debate about whether this has made Saudi Arabia far more cautious about jacking up global oil prices, despite the Russians really wanting to hike. A run up to $150/bbl would massively accelerate all these trends in the long term, while actually causing a recession that reduces near term oil consumption.

Truenorth00 · #**2994** Posted **Nov 6, 2023, 12:10 PM**

Toyota is looking to imitate Tesla's manufacturing methods, particularly the gigacastings. Turns out that Tesla really is better at making EVs than the legacy automakers.

https://www.ft.com/content/08048b42-...e-d15fbc98a9da

urbandreamer · #**2995** Posted **Nov 6, 2023, 1:58 PM**

Year's ago when I applied at Toyota, they bragged about the fact their doors are put on last. Iirc, the doors & associated subs are made in Elmira before being shipped to Cambridge and Woodstock.

Anyway, go hang out at a car dealership for a day or two: many customers for ICE vehicles, very few for electric!

Black Star · #**2996** Posted **Nov 6, 2023, 4:14 PM**

Honda CEO just announced the IMMEDIATE SHUTDOWN of their entire EV company, leaving all carmakers in disbelief! Why? Because CEO Toshihiro Mibe is AGAINST EVs and doesn’t want to rush into electrification. He believes that there is still a long way to go for internal combustion engines, and political leaders shouldn't force expensive EVs on the middle class! In a shocking turn of events, automakers like Ford, and General Motors have also followed Honda, and are now going to STOP producing electric vehicles!

https://youtu.be/sXT9adtcCRw?si=WOkXTF5u-4CHjKyC

https://youtu.be/L6w1Ms1VWxM?si=uJikdSHGfOBTSwl5

lio45 · #**2997** Posted **Nov 6, 2023, 4:21 PM**

At first sight this looks like fakish news on the truth-nugget-basis of this:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...ws-2023-10-25/

Note that Honda (and BMW) are among the automakers who stand to lose the most from the EV transition as they have traditionally had an edge on ICE engineering; if all automakers equally throw their ICE experience into the trash, then that's worse for the ones who had that as a particular strength.

Truenorth00 · #**2998** Posted **Nov 6, 2023, 4:30 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

Year's ago when I applied at Toyota, they bragged about the fact their doors are put on last. Iirc, the doors & associated subs are made in Elmira before being shipped to Cambridge and Woodstock.

Toyota set the standard for production for decades.

One of the biggest surprises was that they didn't catch on sooner to some of the fabrication techniques Tesla is using, which are honestly not uncommon in the aerospace world.

Quote:

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

Anyway, go hang out at a car dealership for a day or two: many customers for ICE vehicles, very few for electric!

People having trouble buying expensive vehicles because of high rates? You don't say. The BMW dealership near me is always empty in the visitor lot. And I don't think it's because they are pushing EVs.

This is exactly why the Chinese EV makers are going to crush legacy automakers in any market without protection.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Star

Honda CEO just announced the IMMEDIATE SHUTDOWN of their entire EV company, leaving all carmakers in disbelief! Why? Because CEO Toshihiro Mibe is AGAINST EVs and doesn’t want to rush into electrification. He believes that there is still a long way to go for internal combustion engines, and political leaders shouldn't force expensive EVs on the middle class! In a shocking turn of events, automakers like Ford, and General Motors have also followed Honda, and are now going to STOP producing electric vehicles!

https://youtu.be/sXT9adtcCRw?si=WOkXTF5u-4CHjKyC

https://youtu.be/L6w1Ms1VWxM?si=uJikdSHGfOBTSwl5

I don't know where people come up with this stuff but the only thing Honda cancelled was their deal with GM to coproduce EVs.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/honda-ce...89152.amp.html

They are just about to launch their first major EV in Canada? The Prologue.

Innsertnamehere · #**2999** Posted **Nov 6, 2023, 5:30 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Toyota set the standard for production for decades.

One of the biggest surprises was that they didn't catch on sooner to some of the fabrication techniques Tesla is using, which are honestly not uncommon in the aerospace world.

People having trouble buying expensive vehicles because of high rates? You don't say. The BMW dealership near me is always empty in the visitor lot. And I don't think it's because they are pushing EVs.

This is exactly why the Chinese EV makers are going to crush legacy automakers in any market without protection.

I don't know where people come up with this stuff but the only thing Honda cancelled was their deal with GM to coproduce EVs.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/honda-ce...89152.amp.html

They are just about to launch their first major EV in Canada? The Prologue.

Ironically the Prologue is a rebadged Chevy.

Interest rates are murdering the Canadian economy in general right now - EVs are no different.

Truenorth00 · #**3000** Posted **Nov 6, 2023, 5:36 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Ironically the Prologue is a rebadged Chevy.

Interest rates are murdering the Canadian economy in general right now - EVs are no different.

Yeah. There's a lot of ink spilled about how EVs are failing. Ask those sales folks how their $60k pickups and luxury SUVs are doing.