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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV
Well remember that the estimates were consistently undercounting major metros compared to the census as well. Unless the methodology changed, we might be seeing that to some extent in addition to people moving out (and also...dying from COVID).
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People never learn. It's insane. There's many different population studies that the Census does and the only one that is somewhat accurate is the 10 year Census. The estimates were way off in 2010 and they were way off in 2020 for most places too.
The methodology didn't change because then you couldn't compare those estimates from year to year. They'd probably end up calling it something different if they changed it. I've had conversations with the Census before about this. Even if the 10 year comes out and shows the estimates were way off, they still produce the estimates with no changes to methodology or even considering the 10 year data. It makes total sense, but the media and people keep buying into these estimates even mere months after it was shown they're inaccurate.
Anytime an estimate comes out, especially one that's not ACS (still not accurate sometimes) I'd take it with a major cup of salt right now.