Especially striking when you consider that the capacity of a Flexity Freedom LRV is
251 passengers and the goal is a headway of
4 to 6 minutes.
If A-Line LRT runs only in the
six rush hours that correspond with West Harbour GO rail service, that’s 60 to 90 circuits a day — on seated capacity alone, enough space for upwards of 3,000-5,000 passengers. Run the service for 12 hours, like the 20 A Line bus, and you have even more legroom: up to 10,000 seated passengers a day. (Perspective: In Nov-Dec 2015,
UPX was operating at around 12% capacity.)
There is also the matter of where the ridership is coming from. Unlike the B-Line, which will retire 18 buses and replace routes like the 1 & 10, there is no indication that A-Line LRT will supplant any HSR routes (in fact, it will be sharing the lane with them), so it cannot be presumed to capture any existing ridership. They're effectively starting with empty LRVs.
Plus, convenience is relative when you’re considering the dynamics at play on a coffeehouse-abundant street that has already established its bona fides as a pedestrian- and cycling-friendly neighbourhood.
And
again, if you live south of York/Wilson you’re technically closer to the Hunter GO. If you live north of York/Wilson, you can walk to a stop at Cannon and wait for LRT (or the 4 bus, or the 20 bus) to show up every 4-6 minutes, then travel 3 minutes north to the West Harbour GO. Or you can just walk for 7 minutes from Cannon to the station.
Via Metrolinx:
"Employed early in the project planning process, and subsequently updated as projects evolve, the BCA examines several different high-level transit options within the context of a spectrum of considerations: transportation user benefits compared to the financial impact; good value for tax-payer dollars; environmental, economic and social benefits of the various alternatives; the impacts that a project has on communities; and alignment with the current policy objectives.
This type of standardized project analysis is not meant to be a replacement tool for decision-making, but rather a point of reference for decision-makers, providing an informed view of the project and possible alternatives. It is imbedded and part of the guiding principles of The Big Move, goals, objectives and policies we have in place."
Any guesses as to the ETA on James North LRT BCA?