Quote:
Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere
That’s a peak in ICE sales - I’m looking for # of vehicles on the road including existing vehicles.
I imagine it’s peaked as well, especially in western markets, but it would depend if the # of EVs getting sold every year exceeds the overall growth rate of the vehicle fleet.
|
From what I've read, the developed world has reached peak car. Ownership rates in many countries are actually flat or even starting to decline.
The Global South, however, has a ways to go. Those Bloomberg figures, however, are for global auto sales. Globally we're about 7-10 years away from the point where new ICEV sales fall under the number of ICEV cars scrapped annually (27-30M).
It's going to be an interesting decade for sure. There's already financiers trying to model when to cut off financing for ICEVs because the tail end of the adoption curve crushes their residuals making them bagholders. Nice little dance going on between the financial markets and legacy automakers who need financing for current sales to continue unhindered so they can transition.