Quote:
Originally Posted by Novacek
I don't see why that would be the case. I think every factor is currently indicating that Austin would be larger.
1. Overall we've been growing faster for a long time. It's just that San Antonio had a 150-year head start on us.
2. Austin's traditional strengths point to further growth (UT, technology, etc.) while San Antonio may see slowdown here (further military contraction).
3. I think Austin has a greater chance for geographical growth of its metro area (possible additions of Milam and Burnet counties), while all the counties that surround Bexar are already included in the San Antonio metro.
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Milam will never be added and even if it is, it's a very small county that has negative population growth. I'd prefer that it not add it's horrible economic indicators to the metro area calculations.
I do see Burnet (Marble Falls, Burnet, Granite Shoals) and Llano Counties (Kingsland, Horseshoe Bay, not so much Llano itself, but that's a small share of the county going forward) being added long-term as the highland lakes communities grow and further integrate with our area. Blanco is a possibility as well, but we've got some heavy competition with San Antonio for that county. The northern areas are definitely in our orbit (Johnson City), but the southern areas are in San Antonio's (Blanco). San Antonio could also easily add Kerrville sometime within the next decade. Even if we each add the areas that I just outlined (with Blanco going to San Antonio, as the commuter stats iirc are tilted in their favor), that's a wash for Austin.
So, isn't as clear cut and dry as you think it might be.