The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Japanese Automakers are moving towards true mass-production hybrids, unlike other major manufacturers.

I'd buy this if they were fully hybridizing their lineup and making hybrids the base option in at least all the developed economy markets. They aren't doing that. And they routinely fight and lobby against increased fuel economy and increased electrification standards. They've realized they are behind and need a Hail Mary to catch up. So now they are just playing spoiler hoping the upstarts (especially out of China) don't bury them.

The real irony is that they had a huge lead in electrification with their hybrids and Japan has some of the best battery makers in the world (Panasonic for example). Truly another Kodak in the making.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I know you were a big Hydrogen guy and you seem to have finally realized the truth on that. It seems like nobody can get through to you on the value of EVs over ICE vehicles so there's no point in trying.

Toyota, Honda, and anybody else not taking EVs seriously will get their comeuppance via market forces sooner or later. I'm betting on sooner.

The real of irony of being an H2 fan (and I personally don't understand people who cheer on Beta over VHS) is that even Toyota and Honda are spending more on electrification R&D than developing and commercializing HFCEVs. Let alone the capital that is needed to build H2 distribution, which virtually nobody is investing in developing for the consumer market.

I was listening to a BNEF podcast and they pointed out that if the number of hydrogen vehicles in the world doubled every single year for another decade, it still wouldn't make up 1% of vehicles on the road. There's probably more energy spent talking about HFCEVs on the internet than actually spent building them.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'd buy this if they were fully hybridizing their lineup and making hybrids the base option in at least all the developed economy markets. They aren't doing that. And they routinely fight and lobby against increased fuel economy and increased electrification standards. They've realized they are behind and need a Hail Mary to catch up. So now they are just playing spoiler hoping the upstarts (especially out of China) don't bury them.

The real irony is that they had a huge lead in electrification with their hybrids and Japan has some of the best battery makers in the world (Panasonic for example). Truly another Kodak in the making.

56% of CR-V and Accord sales are Hybrids. the new Civic is expected to be 40% of sales. It's significant. I wouldn't be surprised if close to 50% of Honda's sales are hybrids in 2-3 years.

Their lack of complete EV options, even at high price tags, is of course hilarious and a problem for their long term. Honda's Prologue SUV is a rebadged Chevy Blazer, and not a real effort.

My point is that their model right now of offering a middle ground product in high volumes, far higher than what other manufacturers are offering in EVs and at far more affordable price points, is a winning formula right now, and is an important component of de-carbonization in the transition period. ICEs ultimately are still 80-90% of the auto market in Canada - it's important to acknowledge that in addition to ramping to full EVs as fast as possible, you can cut emissions from regular ICEs as well on your way.

Will it be a winning formula in 5-10 years? that's a good question, and I think the answer will be no. But it works, for now.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The real of irony of being an H2 fan (and I personally don't understand people who cheer on Beta over VHS) is that even Toyota and Honda are spending more on electrification R&D than developing and commercializing HFCEVs. Let alone the capital that is needed to build H2 distribution, which virtually nobody is investing in developing for the consumer market.

Heh, Beta was the better technology! Sony screwed it up. They learned their lesson with Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD. But that's another topic...

Yeah if you think EV charging infrastructure is going to be tough to build, H2 will blow your mind. You can't even use pipelines.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I was listening to a BNEF podcast and they pointed out that if the number of hydrogen vehicles in the world doubled every single year for another decade, it still wouldn't make up 1% of vehicles on the road. There's probably more energy spent talking about HFCEVs on the internet than actually spent building them.

I have seen a few in Vancouver. They are interesting feats of engineering, and this area is home to Ballard, so it would be amazing if they were more feasible. Alas, they aren't.

I remember the hype in the 90s around HFC... literally 30 years ago. We went from the GM EV1 to the Tesla Plaid in the same time period.

[Changing City]

There are no BP gas stations in Canada any more, but the 7,000+ in the US will start getting Tesla fast chargers next year (branded as BP Pulse). That's the first time Tesla have sold chargers to another company.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Changing City

There are no BP gas stations in Canada any more, but the 7,000+ in the US will start getting Tesla fast chargers next year (branded as BP Pulse). That's the first time Tesla have sold chargers to another company.

Chevron has deployed a lot of fast chargers at their stations, Shell is doing the same. I think Petro Canada rolled out a limited amount a few years ago.

EV chargers are inobtrusive and installed in a lot of random places. If you aren't looking for them, it's likely you won't find them.

plugshare.com is a great resource.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Agreed. Tesla is the only one making any money right now because they profit off their cars, and they actually offer options that (with rebates) come in around 30K (US) which isn't that unaffordable.

Tesla is indeed the only car maker making money off their EVs but much of the reason for that is that it is a new car company. In other words it doesn't have the huge costs of being a legacy automaker ie pensions etc for its retired workers.

Also CDN$40k may not be much for you but for many it is completely unaffordable especially with today's interest rates. Many may want an EV but can't afford it and it is FAR better for the environment if one buys a hybrid, which has infinitely lower emissions than a car of a regular ICE vehicle of even a decade ago, than have to wait to they can afford an EV and hence having to drive their old polluting gas guzzler for many more years.

I just don't see the logic behind why some people {not necessarily meaning you} think that the whole point of the exercise is to have everyone go EV but rather to lower emissions. If we can do that by using ICE vehicles then who cares as long as we meet our targets?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Tesla is indeed the only car maker making money off their EVs but much of the reason for that is that it is a new car company. In other words it doesn't have the huge costs of being a legacy automaker ie pensions etc for its retired workers.

Tesla's profits doesn't just come from not having legacy automaker pension obligations. They are the most vertically integrated automaker on the planet. They have one tenth the supplier base that legacy automakers do. Tesla's manufacturing process is literally closer to how Henry Ford made cars than how Ford makes cars today. They also have the direct sales model which means they keep the profit that dealerships usually make. Their profits on EVs are a result of business model and process innovation that their competitors failed to pursue.

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Also CDN$40k may not be much for you but for many it is completely unaffordable especially with today's interest rates.

Except that the average new car sold is over CDN$40K. Many carmakers don't even bother selling basic sedans anymore. I don't see how you can look at the hoardes of trucks and large SUVs on the road and think that people have a tough time buying $40k vehicles. That might change with today's rates. But I doubt it. So many people are just habituated to having $1000 monthly care payments or simply buying $50-60k vehicles with their HELOC. So really, if they are going to spend that much on a vehicle anyway, probably best to strongly encourage them to go electric so that at least the second hand EV market gets better in 5-10 years, for those who want a $40k EV.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I just don't see the logic behind why some people {not necessarily meaning you} think that the whole point of the exercise is to have everyone go EV but rather to lower emissions. If we can do that by using ICE vehicles then who cares as long as we meet our targets?

Have you ever owned a hybrid? They don't save nearly as much money as you think. Gas consumption isn't low enough unless it's a plug in. And maintenance costs can actually be higher. Because you now have two systems to maintain.

This is why even in markets where EV sales are growing, hybrids with have static marketshare or get slight growth.

Having owned a hybrid for a decade, I am hoping to go straight to EV. If not, I'd actually consider a non-hybrid.

[SFUVancouver]

US EV segment market report for Q1-Q3 2023 illustrates just how stark Tesla's market dominance remains, despite sales headwinds and the legacy automakers making proportionally substantial gains.

Tesla’s Grip Loosens as EV Market Faces Speed Bumps
Henry Hoenig
Updated on Oct 30, 2023

• U.S. EV sales totaled 873,000 through the first three quarters of 2023, putting them on pace to top 1 million annually for the first time. Still, the year-on-year sales growth of 49% registered during the first nine months of the year marked a slowdown from the 55% growth recorded for all of 2022.
• In California, the U.S.’s biggest EV market, sales are on pace to rise 30% this year, roughly half the increase seen in 2022 and the smallest since 2020. This indicates a possible plateau ahead in the U.S. state with the highest level of EV adoption and perhaps a deeper slowdown in EV adoption nationwide.
• Tesla’s sales during the first three quarters grew 26%, the third-slowest rate among the 10 best-selling brands this year. Tesla’s share of the EV market fell to a new low of 50% in the third quarter, when its sales rose 20% from the same quarter last year.
• Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3 remained the two best-selling EV models. The Model Y, now the world’s best-selling car, has sold six times as many units as any other non-Tesla vehicle this year, with sales rising 55% year-on-year during the first three quarters of the year. The Model Y accounted for 34% of all EV sales during the period.
• Sales of the Model 3 rose at a more modest pace of 6.2%, but the total of 53,000 units was good enough to account for 19% of all EV sales in the U.S.
• The more affordable Chevrolet Bolt ranked third in EV sales through September, with 16,000 units, which perhaps played a role in the company’s reversal of its decision to scrap the model entirely.
• Sales of five of this year’s 10 best-selling brands — Chevrolet, Rivian, BMW, Mercedes and VW — more than doubled from the same period last year. Mercedes’ EV sales more than tripled and BMW’s nearly tripled.
• Luxury brands dominate the list of car makers with the most EV sales as a percentage of overall vehicle sales. In the third quarter of 2023, BMW ranked first, with EVs accounting for 15.6% of its sales. Audi (12.7%) and Volvo (12.6%) ranked second and third, respectively. (Tesla, Rivian, Fisker, and Vinfast make only EVs, so aren't on the list.)

Source


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Source

[ssiguy]

Good news for Ford, EV sales are up 44% from the same quarter last year according to a new report by EV World just a couple of days ago. Bad news for Ford, if this trend continues Ford will be filing for bankruptcy.

How can this happen? Because Ford is losing a whopping $39k on every single EV it sells and this year Ford is expected to lose $4.1 billion in it's EV division. What's worse is that the loses are HIGHER than last year so the hopes of higher production leading to lower prices isn't materializing. They didn't have the stats for GM, Stellantis, the Japanese and S.Korean producers but the projection are the same.

This is why many producers are scaling back EV production and expansion........the more they expand, the closer they get to insolvency. This why much maligned {due to its hesitancy of not going 100% EV} Toyota is looking at alternatives such as hybrids, fuel cells, and especially ICE hydrogen/ammonia because the difference of installing hydrogen/ammonia to ICE cars is relatively simply and far most cost effective.

[ssiguy]

^^^^ Just to add to my above comment........

Of course, the biggest impediment to going hydrogen {far less so for ammonia as the technology is still in its infancy}, is the lack of infrastructure but this is going to be changing VERY fast and especially now as the automakers are starting to realize that going EV is financially unsustainable.

Already many of automakers are staring to put their own money into hydrogen pipelines like they are in Germany and hydrogen gas stations like they are in Japan & S.Korea. As they collectively put up their own money for hydrogen stations along with private hydrogen companies and gov't subsidies, their financially viability increases.

Added to this is another major sector that is starting to invest in hydrogen infrastructure, wait for it, oil companies. Think about it. If everyone started going EV {assuming the automakers can eventually make money off them before going bankrupt}, the oil companies are going to find themselves in the position of trying to sell a product that few actually want and if they shift to battery recharging they are in competition with people who can recharge at home or go to their nearest bank or mall. This would be akin to a gas station today trying to make a living off of only selling diesel........good luck with that.

Oil companies are not going to gleefully standby as their industry heads for oblivion. They need something to sell to stop the carnage and the automakers need something they can sell that doesn't lead to bankruptcy and by combining their sizeable resources into hydrogen infrastructure, they greatly lessen the chances of death in their respective industries.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

^^^^ Just to add to my above comment........

Of course, the biggest impediment to going hydrogen {far less so for ammonia as the technology is still in its infancy}, is the lack of infrastructure but this is going to be changing VERY fast and especially now as the automakers are starting to realize that going EV is financially unsustainable.

Always just 5 years away.....

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

^^^^ Just to add to my above comment........

Of course, the biggest impediment to going hydrogen {far less so for ammonia as the technology is still in its infancy}, is the lack of infrastructure but this is going to be changing VERY fast and especially now as the automakers are starting to realize that going EV is financially unsustainable.

Already many of automakers are staring to put their own money into hydrogen pipelines like they are in Germany and hydrogen gas stations like they are in Japan & S.Korea. As they collectively put up their own money for hydrogen stations along with private hydrogen companies and gov't subsidies, their financially viability increases.

Added to this is another major sector that is starting to invest in hydrogen infrastructure is, wait for it, oil companies. Think about it. If everyone started going EV {assuming the automakers can eventually make money off them before going bankrupt}, the oil companies are going to find themselves in the position of trying to sell a product that few actually want and if they shift to battery recharging they are in competition with people who can recharge at home or go to their nearest bank or mall. This would be akin to a gas station today trying to make a living off of only selling diesel........good luck with that.

Oil companies are not going to gleefully look at how their industry is heading for oblivion. They need something to sell to stop the carnage and the automakers need something they can sell that doesn't lead to bankruptcy and by combining their sizeable resources into hydrogen infrastructure, they greatly lessening the chances of death in their respective industries.

A Toyota Mirai hydrogen car costs about the same to buy as a Tesla Model Y Long Range. It costs Toyota much more to build it - Ford's loss on their EVs is nothing compared to Toyota's subsidy of the Mirai, (with its expensive carbon fibre pressurized fuel tank, a fuel cell stack, a lithium ion battery and electric motor).

In BC, it costs exactly four times the price per km to buy hydrogen for a Toyota Mirai, compared to the cost of electricity to charge a Tesla per km. (It's slightly cheaper to drive a Mirai per km than an equivalent priced Toyota Venza hybrid).

As you note, infrastructure is 'limited' - there are three filling stations in Vancouver (except the one in North Vancouver is broken), one in Victoria and one in Kelowna. There are over 40 in California, but none in Washington, or Oregon, so forget the road trip.

Tesla sold $23.9bn of electric vehicles in the US in 2021, and $40.6bn in 2022.

Toyota sold $1.5m of hydrogen vehicles in the US in 2021, and $1.2m in 2022. (Sales dropped from 2,629 to 2,094).

Looks like Hydrogen for cars has a bit of a steep hill to climb...

[Jaws]

Originally Posted by Changing City

A Toyota Mirai hydrogen car costs about the same to buy as a Tesla Model Y Long Range. It costs Toyota much more to build it - Ford's loss on their EVs is nothing compared to Toyota's subsidy of the Mirai, (with its expensive carbon fibre pressurized fuel tank, a fuel cell stack, a lithium ion battery and electric motor).

In BC, it costs exactly four times the price per km to buy hydrogen for a Toyota Mirai, compared to the cost of electricity to charge a Tesla per km. (It's slightly cheaper to drive a Mirai per km than an equivalent priced Toyota Venza hybrid).

As you note, infrastructure is 'limited' - there are three filling stations in Vancouver (except the one in North Vancouver is broken), one in Victoria and one in Kelowna. There are over 40 in California, but none in Washington, or Oregon, so forget the road trip.

Tesla sold $23.9bn of electric vehicles in the US in 2021, and $40.6bn in 2022.

Toyota sold $1.5m of hydrogen vehicles in the US in 2021, and $1.2m in 2022. (Sales dropped from 2,629 to 2,094).

Looks like Hydrogen for cars has a bit of a steep hill to climb...

I see a hydrogen future in heavy fleet vehicles and aviation, but yes, BEVs will dominate the passenger car/light truck market due to cost and infrastructure.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Their lack of complete EV options, even at high price tags, is of course hilarious and a problem for their long term. Honda's Prologue SUV is a rebadged Chevy Blazer, and not a real effort.

They are truly behind in the game, but surely you don’t believe that they aren’t developing their own EVs in the meantime, while unfortunately using the GM vehicles as a stopgap to get something into the showroom.

I’m still not sure that the government should be picking winners and losers by forcing a hard deadline rather than softening it by allowing hybrids in the mix. Forcing established carmakers who know how to build quality vehicles into bankruptcy in favour of companies like Tesla, Rivian, the various Chinese startups, etc. is not doing favours for the buying public, IMHO.

Oh well, we’ll see what happens, but I know who I won’t be buying from.

[harls]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

They are truly behind in the game, but surely you don’t believe that they aren’t developing their own EVs in the meantime, while unfortunately using the GM vehicles as a stopgap to get something into the showroom.

I’m still not sure that the government should be picking winners and losers by forcing a hard deadline rather than softening it by allowing hybrids in the mix. Forcing established carmakers who know how to build quality vehicles into bankruptcy in favour of companies like Tesla, Rivian, the various Chinese startups, etc. is not doing favours for the buying public, IMHO.

Oh well, we’ll see what happens, but I know who I won’t be buying from.

It will be interesting to come back to this thread in 10 years (assuming this site survives) to see where we are at.

[ssiguy]

The oil companies will not gleefully die off for the good of the planet. They need something to sell and EV recharging at their stations isn't going to cut the mustard. Remember, much of the EV usage at different locations is due to people not having the ability to recharge at home and obviously this basically means people in apts/condos and, to a lesser extent, townhomes. This housing sector will continue to upgrade their parking garages with EV infrastructure sending the demand for EV recharging at gas stations plunging.

We also have to remember that gasoline sales are a complete cash-cow for gov'ts. They will have to replace that income somehow and this puts them in a real quandary. They can't just raise electricity bills overnight to make up the windfall because that ends up taxing people who may not even have a vehicle. If they tax at different recharging stations, then no one will use them. If they tax overall consumption that will hurt people who again may not even have a car or use it very little and most of their electricity is used for heat pumps which the gov't is shoving down everyone's throat at great expense to the average taxpayer ie Atlantic Canada. If they go EV then the only way to raise the revenue will be thru tolls and to make up such huge revenue loses expect to pay a toll for the tiniest bridge traversing a creek.

As for infrastructure, yes that is a big hurdle but one that can be easily overcome. The first car was electric after that they were gasoline and this is why in the 1900 many thought the car was a novelty that would soon fad away. Why?.......because there was not such thing as a gas station. People actually had to go to the pharmacy to get gas. Of course, that changed very quickly and by 1931 there were 25,000 gas stations in the US in every little outpost in the country with a population one-third of what it is today.

[Truenorth00]

^ Blah blah

2020: Hydrogen will take off in another 5 years. Just you wait!

2021: Hydrogen will take off in another 5 years. Just you wait!

2022: Hydrogen will take off in another 5 years. Just you wait!

2023: Hydrogen will take off in another 5 years. Just you wait!

2024: Hydrogen will take off in another 5 years. Just you wait!

2025: Hydrogen will take off in another 5 years. Just you wait!
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There's more mopeds in Canada than Hydrogen cars.

[ssiguy]

^^^ So you honestly think that oil companies are just going to stand by and watch their industry implode? You honestly think gov'ts are going to let the oil sector die with all the hundreds of thousands of high paying jobs and billions in revenue are going to stand by and watch their unemployment soar and revenues collapse? You honestly think that the big automakers are going to stand by while their industry sheds tens of billions just to sell EVs? This is what you are effectively saying.

I think, respectfully, that you are very naive.