The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Ya, actually there is a lot more to say here.

Toyota & Honda sales have greatly increased in the last year and it's not their EVs that are leading the way but rather their hybrids. EV growth in sales have started to stall in the US.

Toyota is absolutely right in it's argument that EVs are not some kind of nirvana. The whole point is not to go battery but rather to reduce GHG emissions and if it can be done more cost effectively by ICE than that's what we should use.

Mother Nature doesn't give a damn how we get to net zero as long as we get there, and governments and companies should feel the same.

I know you were a big Hydrogen guy and you seem to have finally realized the truth on that. It seems like nobody can get through to you on the value of EVs over ICE vehicles so there's no point in trying.

Toyota, Honda, and anybody else not taking EVs seriously will get their comeuppance via market forces sooner or later. I'm betting on sooner.

[Innsertnamehere]

EVs are taking a beating right now because they are still more expensive than ICEs even including operations costs.

People were willing to ignore that in a cheap credit, lots of cash environment, but with car loans often above 7% interest now, people are less interested in buying $70,000 cars when they can get a similar quality vehicle with an ICE for $50k.

[thurmas]

Toyota has taken the wise approach in my opinion understanding very large portion of market still wants ice or can only afford hybrid not full ev. Easing consumers into evs gradually through hybrids makes a lot of sense.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Ya, actually there is a lot more to say here.

Toyota & Honda sales have greatly increased in the last year and it's not their EVs that are leading the way but rather their hybrids. EV growth in sales have started to stall in the US.

Total bullshit in terms of sales, (and not particularly relevant to the Canadian Electric Vehicle thread). Here's EV sales in the US between 1st quarter 2020 and 1st quarter 2023, by quarter. "In the first quarter of 2023, just under 258,900 battery electric vehicles were sold in the United States. This was a year-over-year increase of around 44.9 percent compared to the sales recorded in the first quarter of 2022."



[Statista]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Even with taxpayer subsidies they are still MUCH more expensive than their comparable ICE vehicles and with inflation and housing costs soaring, people are increasingly price sensitive................they can't afford them. Zero emissions cars are great but mean nothing if you can't afford to buy them. EVs don't have the higher operational costs but remember EVs are relatively new and after a decades worth of usage, the batteries will start to faulter and replacing them is going to be a whopping expense. Their poor performance in cold weather and reports of them blowing up isn't helping.

In Sweden, with a significant fleet of EVs, they catch fire 20 times less often than ICE vehicles. In the US EVs hardly ever catch fire, but hybrids are far more prone to catching fire - worse than gas vehicles. [source]

And already in Europe, EV manufacturers are profitable and anticipate very soon having the same profit margins from making EVs as ICE.
"Volvo Cars executives said at an investor presentation last week that the company is expecting a 15 to 20 percent gross profit margin on the EX30, despite the fact the subcompact crossover will be the most affordable model in the carmaker's lineup."

The Chinese-built Volvo EX30 will be on sale in the US next year, with a starting MSRP of $36,415 (including shipping). That's less than the gas powered EX40. [source]. In Europe again, Stallantis have just launched a $24,500 Citroen EV to counter the flood of Chinese built EVs.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

EVs are taking a beating right now because they are still more expensive than ICEs even including operations costs.

I disagree with this. ICE vehicles are getting expensive quickly. Gas is around $2/L out here in BC.

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

People were willing to ignore that in a cheap credit, lots of cash environment, but with car loans often above 7% interest now, people are less interested in buying $70,000 cars when they can get a similar quality vehicle with an ICE for $50k.

Tesla 3 starts at $53k before rebates. Chevy Bolt at $41.5k.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by thurmas

Toyota has taken the wise approach in my opinion understanding very large portion of market still wants ice or can only afford hybrid not full ev. Easing consumers into evs gradually through hybrids makes a lot of sense.

Their declining marketshare and cratering profits in China say otherwise. A big market of why they are whining and lobbying so hard now, is because they are hooped if what happens in China, happens anywhere else. And China has been reducing subsidies to EVs and still seeing EV marketshare grow. That's what happens after the tipping point.

Imagine, if somebody had said "RIM is taking a sound approach. They are easing people into smartphone ownership."

Yes. EVs have 4 tires and a steering wheel. The similarities end there. And companies that aren't developing the tech now will never catch up. Just like Nokia and RIM/Blackberry couldn't catch Apple and Google/Android despite having literally decades of experience in making phones.

Lastly, I will say that Canadians' perception of EVs is ridiculously skewed by global and particularly developed world standards. Can the average Canadian even comprehend China having 200+ million electric two wheelers or EV adoption in major European markets over 25% this year? With that in mind, I wouldn't consider the opinion of Canadians on auto trends relevant or valuable at all. Besides which, we get whatever the automakers want to sell in the US anyway. So that makes our opinions even less relevant.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Lastly, I will say that Canadians' perception of EVs is ridiculously skewed by global and particularly developed world standards. Can the average Canadian even comprehend China having 200+ million electric two wheelers or EV adoption in major European markets over 25% this year? With that in mind, I wouldn't consider the opinion of Canadians on auto trends relevant or valuable at all. Besides which, we get whatever the automakers want to sell in the US anyway. So that makes our opinions even less relevant.

BC is currently at 21% and I expect that is being pulled up by where I live in Central Vancouver. We are probably in the high 20s. EVs are everywhere.

[Wigs]

Canadians definitely seem to be troglodyte laggards compared to many parts of the world in relation to EVs.

Hopefully when prices of electric vehicles get reduced the paradigm shift in attitudes will follow suit.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by thurmas

Toyota has taken the wise approach in my opinion understanding very large portion of market still wants ice or can only afford hybrid not full ev. Easing consumers into evs gradually through hybrids makes a lot of sense.

I don't see how what Toyota is doing is easing consumers gradually. Easing people into it would mean giving people a gentle push rather than rushing them, while Toyota doesn't seem to be pushing at all. They were the hybrid pioneer with the Prius well over a decade ago and have barely progressed beyond that stage. A company like Tesla is pushing consumers hard toward electrification while legacy OEMs like Hyundai and Volkswagen are easing consumers into it. Toyota almost seems like it's trying to discourage EV adoption rather than giving a gentle push toward it. And there's certainly nothing wise about ceding the first mover advantage to the competition. All the other legacy OEMs are still selling ICE models and still capitalizing on remaining demand for them but that hasn't stopped several of them from planning for an electrified future. Now that's actual wisdom.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

BC is currently at 21% and I expect that is being pulled up by where I live in Central Vancouver. We are probably in the high 20s. EVs are everywhere.

BC is about as representative on EV adoption as Manitoba is.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

I don't see how what Toyota is doing is easing consumers gradually. Easing people into it would mean giving people a gentle push rather than rushing them, while Toyota doesn't seem to be pushing at all. They were the hybrid pioneer with the Prius well over a decade ago and have barely progressed beyond that stage. A company like Tesla is pushing consumers hard toward electrification while legacy OEMs like Hyundai and Volkswagen are easing consumers into it. Toyota almost seems like it's trying to discourage EV adoption rather than giving a gentle push toward it. And there's certainly nothing wise about ceding the first mover advantage to the competition. All the other legacy OEMs are still selling ICE models and still capitalizing on remaining demand for them but that hasn't stopped several of them from planning for an electrified future. Now that's actual wisdom.

Toyota is literally doing what RIM did with Blackberry. Trying to convince people that the new tech is irrelevant or unnecessary. I remember Blackberry trying to convince customers for years that a touchscreen wasn't necessary and that the trackball could meet their needs.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

BC is about as representative on EV adoption as Manitoba is.

We'll, somewhere has to be in the lead! My neighbour is a mechanic, owning a business repairing and rebuilding ic engines, (mostly for Japanese cars). His new family vehicle is a plug-in Hyundai.

[theman23]

Toyota plans to have 10 BEVs in Europe by 2025. Not sure if they'll actually make that target, but it doesn't seem to me like they're sleeping on the segment. They're obviously behind and trying to save face with investors, but shares and sales are up with their current lineup so I think they'll come out of this OK.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

EVs are taking a beating right now because they are still more expensive than ICEs even including operations costs.

People were willing to ignore that in a cheap credit, lots of cash environment, but with car loans often above 7% interest now, people are less interested in buying $70,000 cars when they can get a similar quality vehicle with an ICE for $50k.

Part of the reason EVs are expensive is also because automakers are choosing to electrify some of their largest vehicles (which require the most batteries first). Two F150 Lightnings have enough batteries to power three Tesla Model 3s or five Mini Cooper EVs. Their upsizing is screwing their EV market.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by theman23

Toyota plans to have 10 BEVs in Europe by 2025. Not sure if they'll actually make that target, but it doesn't seem to me like they're sleeping on the segment. They're obviously behind and trying to save face with investors, but shares and sales are up with their current lineup so I think they'll come out of this OK.

Oh that's good to know. Will be interesting to see if they manage to catch up.

[Truenorth00]

Exactly as I said. Desperation. The Financial Times has a good article on the Japanese automakers hoping for a miracle:

Just a few hours into the 2023 Japan Mobility Show, Honda’s chief executive had said he wanted to see the company’s logo in outer space. The head of Lexus had promised luxury cars with a sense of smell. The president of Subaru, from a great nebula of dry ice, had unveiled a conceptual flying car which may, eventually, fly.

The signs of stress are less subtle than they used to be. Too much talk of the future reveals a chasm in the present, and as such Japan’s biggest automotive trade show acts as a gauge of how hard the country’s once unstoppable carmakers are ready to fight for survival. Increasingly it looks like an industry waiting for a miracle.

The trillion-dollar question is whether solid-state batteries — a technology that promises greater range and safety than lithium-ion ones, and which Toyota has indicated it is near to mass producing — can be that miracle.

Although particularly visible at the Tokyo show this week — an event not held since 2019 — the underlying crisis is not the Japanese carmakers’ alone. The global legacy auto industry, of which Japan’s manufacturers comprise a still immensely powerful and successful segment, can see dangerous, historic and fundamental transformation ahead. They see it in the way cars are propelled, how they are built and the still unknowable role these rolling digital platforms will play in people’s lives. 

Electric vehicles, of one type or another, look very much like the vanguard of that transformation and the upheaval around them is provably fertile ground for newcomers. Japanese carmakers, meanwhile, have collectively spent the past few years allowing themselves to appear ever further back from the evolutionary front line on EVs. 

Toyota particularly so, given its long global supremacy as both innovator and competitor. Whatever the calculation behind its EV foot-dragging — it continues to believe that hybrids will have a critical role in the vehicle mix around the world — its laggard status on this is striking. The unflattering contrast with Tesla is obvious; the threat represented by China’s rapidly emerging legion of aggressively expansionist EV makers is probably the more unsettling. 

And this is the disquiet into which the Japan Mobility Show — known for decades as the Tokyo Motor Show, but now retuned for worthier ESG times — has set up shop. In the relative absence of non-Japanese exhibitors, it has become the showcase of an auto industry desperately hoping that 100 per cent of its skills and experience will be relevant in this new world of upstarts and usurpers, but is increasingly resigned to the idea that the ratio might be far lower. 

In that resignation, there is an unfamiliar decline in outward confidence. Japanese companies are certainly now building and designing EVs, but are doing so in a way that makes them look, in late 2023, more like challengers in a new industry than incumbents in one they have dominated for decades. That positioning may have suited Japan a half century ago when its then scrappier carmakers were unseating US and European rivals; it is not clear they are as suited in their more stately present. 

But Toyota has an alternative narrative. It has not been on the back foot at all as Tesla and others have advanced and land-grabbed, but biding its time. It has been allowing the early days of the EV market to establish standards on pricing, range, charging time and reliability that it believes it can comfortably surpass. It envisages, in other words, a leap from laggard to leader on EVs. The fact that Toyota holds investment stakes in Subaru, Mazda, Suzuki and Isuzu suggests that, if successful, it may carry those others with it.

During this time-biding, runs the narrative, Toyota has been developing the solid-state battery that will make the laggard-to-leader leap possible, and is close to being able to mass produce the miracle. For all the doubts still swirling around this, investors clearly relish the story and are prepared to take the bet that it will work out. Toyota’s strategically timed progress updates on solid-state batteries have sent its shares to multi-decade highs, driving them up 47 per cent this year alone.

Without ever being an overt feature of Toyota or anyone else’s exhibit, the solid-state narrative was a permanent and powerful presence at the Japan Mobility Show. Few things define the country’s hopes for the future as neatly as this single technology and everything it could potentially carry with it, especially in an industry as central to the nation’s sense of itself as cars.

Ageing, shrinking and decreasingly competitive, Japan has left itself in need of a steady drip of technological miracles. It needs solid-state batteries more than anyone will admit.

https://www.ft.com/content/ffc78e5d-...e-d2f029951165

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by theman23

Toyota plans to have 10 BEVs in Europe by 2025. Not sure if they'll actually make that target, but it doesn't seem to me like they're sleeping on the segment. They're obviously behind and trying to save face with investors, but shares and sales are up with their current lineup so I think they'll come out of this OK.

10 BEVs in Europe (a market spoiled for choice). In 2025. That doesn't mean much. Tesla basically sells 4 models and dominates the market. What matters is not the number of models. It's the price and performance (usually range for EVs) that is relevant. Along with fit and finish. Increasingly, we're seeing that the Japanese automakers aren't competitive on price and performance with EVs and they are really struggling on reliability with the new tech and software quality, so fit and finish is out in this new domain.

Oh and in 2025, several automakers (including Tesla) are promising $25 000 compact BEVs. Even if that becomes say 2026 and $30k, the damage this will do to the Japanese OEMs will be spectacular.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by truenorth00

bc is about as representative on ev adoption as manitoba is.

all hail toronto!

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

EVs are taking a beating right now because they are still more expensive than ICEs even including operations costs.

People were willing to ignore that in a cheap credit, lots of cash environment, but with car loans often above 7% interest now, people are less interested in buying $70,000 cars when they can get a similar quality vehicle with an ICE for $50k.

Agreed. Tesla is the only one making any money right now because they profit off their cars, and they actually offer options that (with rebates) come in around 30K (US) which isn't that unaffordable.

[Innsertnamehere]

Japanese Automakers are moving towards true mass-production hybrids, unlike other major manufacturers.

GM, et al don't really offer "in between" options in real volumes. Either you go for one of their $60-90k EV SUVs, or you buy a $40k gas SUV with 25mpg.

Toyota, and now increasingly Honda, are increasingly taking up the "middle market" - those who can't afford or don't want to leave an ICE vehicle quite yet. A CR-V Hybrid gets 40mpg, and the backlog for a Toyota RAV-4 Prime is ridiculous. It offers a far more environmentally friendly option over a good-old-fashioned ICE, without having to take the full leap.

It isn't a good long term strategy as EV costs drop that market will dry up, but particularly in markets with weak or no EV rebates (i.e. Canada outside of BC and Quebec), a lot of the auto market slots in that category right now. And with interest rates moving the way they are, the window for that market appears to be increasing.

The only other manufacturer really in that space right now is Ford I would say, maybe Hyundai. Even Hyundai has dropped a lot of their hybrids recently though.