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  #2901  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 7:19 PM
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Originally Posted by dave8721 View Post
Also interesting that SF + SJ > Chicago for 3rd place in the US.
not that surprising to me.

bay area suburbia is an order of magnitude more hemmed in by water, geography and topography, than chicagoland is, which is surrounded on 3 of its 4 sides by the world's largest cornfield.

in chicagoland, i'd wager that >95% of the metro area's 10K+ ppsm tracts are in the city proper, evanston, and the inner ring bungalow belt burbs on the west side (oak park, cicero, berwyn, elmwood park), with a VERY light and sporadic sprinkling of such tracts out in greater suburbia (often times just clusters of crap-tacular suburban-style apartment complexes), where density generally drops off considerably.

however, in the bay area, you have a sizeable amount 10K+ ppsm tracts reaching way out into deep surburbia because so much of the bay are has so little developable flat land to begin with. you end up with a lot of dense-ish strips of suburbia squeezed in between water and mountains.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Aug 23, 2021 at 7:40 PM.
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  #2902  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 7:55 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
There were easily +1 million people in 20k ppsm in just the city of Detroit, Highland Park, and Hamtramck from 1930 - 1950. The city of Detroit would've been in the top 5 for sure from about 1930 - 1960. Check out pages 7 - 9 of this appendix to a paper that Princeton published on the structure of today's Detroit: https://www.princeton.edu/~erossi/RD_App.pdf

Detroit's population was tilted towards +20,000 ppsm census tracts until about 1960. Post 1950, the historically densest areas started to decline, and by 1970 the bottom fell out. On the other hand, the medium density areas encircling the core of the city remained relatively stable after 1950, and in some cases they actually got more dense in the 1950-1970 era.
Thanks for the link; those visualizations are excellent at showing the ring of growth roll right out of the city. Perhaps if I have the time, I'll track down the 1950 tables and crunch the numbers.

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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
not that surprising to me.

bay area suburbia is an order of magnitude more hemmed in by water, geography and topography, than chicagoland is, which is surrounded on 3 of its 4 sides by the world's largest cornfield.

in chicagoland, i'd wager that >95% of the metro area's 10K+ ppsm tracts are in the city proper, evanston, and the inner ring bungalow belt burbs on the west side (oak park, cicero, berwyn, elmwood park), with a VERY light and sporadic sprinkling of such tracts out in greater suburbia (often times just clusters of crap-tacular suburban-style apartment complexes), where density generally drops off considerably.

however, in the bay area, you have a sizeable amount 10K+ ppsm tracts reaching way out into deep surburbia because so much of the bay are has so little developable flat land to begin with. you end up with a lot of dense-ish strips of suburbia squeezed in between water and mountains.
The county breakdown at the 10k level shows this.

San Francisco and San Jose MSAs
San Francisco: 824,531
Alameda: 813,006
Santa Clara: 720,560
San Mateo: 282,574
Contra Costa: 137,679
Marin: 15,337
San Benito: 0

Aside from the uber wealthy NIMBYs on huge lots in Marin County, and San Benito being a rural county that gets clipped to San Jose, you have significant density in all counties.

Meanwhile,

Chicago MSA
Cook: 2,555,725
Kane: 24,921 (Aurora, one Elgin tract)
Lake, IL: 13,278 (Waukegan, Naval Station Great Lakes)
Lake, IN: 8,682 (East Chicago, one Hammond tract, nothing left in Gary)
DeKalb: 4,134 (NIU)
Will: 3,770 (downtown Joliet)
Kenosha, WI: 3,502 (downtown Kenosha)
DuPage: 0 (second-most populous county, still nothing)
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  #2903  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 8:19 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post

- Jacksonville is a mistery to me. Sorry if someone lives there, but what's the appeal?
It's coastal and still has a low cost of living along the Atlantic seaboard. Generally a warm climate, although they do get chilly in the winter compared to South Florida. A relatively safe place in Florida from hurricanes compared to other cities along the Texas Gulf Coast to North Carolina. Short flights to Chicago and New York.

That's how I would sell it, anyways.
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  #2904  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 8:19 PM
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox View Post
Thanks for the link; those visualizations are excellent at showing the ring of growth roll right out of the city. Perhaps if I have the time, I'll track down the 1950 tables and crunch the numbers.



The county breakdown at the 10k level shows this.

San Francisco and San Jose MSAs
San Francisco: 824,531
Alameda: 813,006
Santa Clara: 720,560
San Mateo: 282,574
Contra Costa: 137,679
Marin: 15,337
San Benito: 0

Aside from the uber wealthy NIMBYs on huge lots in Marin County, and San Benito being a rural county that gets clipped to San Jose, you have significant density in all counties.

Meanwhile,

Chicago MSA
Cook: 2,555,725
Kane: 24,921 (Aurora, one Elgin tract)
Lake, IL: 13,278 (Waukegan, Naval Station Great Lakes)
Lake, IN: 8,682 (East Chicago, one Hammond tract, nothing left in Gary)
DeKalb: 4,134 (NIU)
Will: 3,770 (downtown Joliet)
Kenosha, WI: 3,502 (downtown Kenosha)
DuPage: 0 (second-most populous county, still nothing)
San Francisco County is just SF City, right? That means 824,451 of San Francisco's 873,965 residents live above 10k/sq mile density. That's 94% of the city's population!
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  #2905  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 8:58 PM
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San Francisco County is just SF City, right? That means 824,451 of San Francisco's 873,965 residents live above 10k/sq mile density. That's 94% of the city's population!
Correct. Another feather in SF's cap: once you get to super high density (say, 80k and above), San Francisco is the only city outside NYC itself that still has neighborhood-sized areas remaining. Even Jersey City runs out before you reach San Francisco's density peaks (Chinatown and the Tenderloin).
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  #2906  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 9:13 PM
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox View Post
Correct. Another feather in SF's cap: once you get to super high density (say, 80k and above), San Francisco is the only city outside NYC itself that still has neighborhood-sized areas remaining. Even Jersey City runs out before you reach San Francisco's density peaks (Chinatown and the Tenderloin).
What is meant by this? San Francisco has the most neighborhoods at 80k and above outside NYC? What do you mean by neighborhood-sized areas?
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  #2907  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 9:14 PM
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Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007 View Post
So it looks like St Louis is also starting to be one of those cities where blacks are fleeing and whites are moving in.

Census data show Black people leaving city in droves as St. Louis, St. Charles counties become more diverse
Sounds like run-of-the-mill gentrification?
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  #2908  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 9:26 PM
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What is meant by this? San Francisco has the most neighborhoods at 80k and above outside NYC? What do you mean by neighborhood-sized areas?
By neighborhood-sized area I mean multiple census tracts in a continuous area to fill out much of an understood neighborhood. Other cities (Chicago, Miami, etc) will have super high density tracts, but those will be on their own covering a few apartment towers or a single dormitory.

New York and San Francisco are the only US cities where you can find several continuous blocks of population density over 100,000 per square mile.
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  #2909  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 9:26 PM
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Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007 View Post
So it looks like St Louis is also starting to be one of those cities where blacks are fleeing and whites are moving in.

Census data show Black people leaving city in droves as St. Louis, St. Charles counties become more diverse
I put together Downtown St. Louis numbers for the Downtown thread. It's white majority surrounded by heavily Black census tracts north of it. And as elsewhere, it's growing fast. Clearly Whites are moving in.
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  #2910  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 9:32 PM
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I put together Downtown St. Louis numbers for the Downtown thread. It's white majority surrounded by heavily Black census tracts north of it. And as elsewhere, it's growing fast. Clearly Whites are moving in.
I didn't see St Louis in that thread so I presume you mean you're going to do it?

Anyway, if so, thanks! That would be very interesting!
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  #2911  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2021, 9:41 PM
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Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007 View Post
I didn't see St Louis in that thread so I presume you mean you're going to do it?

Anyway, if so, thanks! That would be very interesting!
Yes, I'll post it.

Assuming people still be interested, I'll post from time to time to give the cities enough spotlight, space for discussion. There are over 40 Downtowns ready, good news everywhere.
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  #2912  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 1:40 AM
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Philadelphia and Detroit were/are fairly alike. Similar demographics, similar peak populations, similar densities, both socked by longterm post-industrial declines, both dealing with racial strife, both undermined by heavy flight/suburbanization. I guess you could say if Detroit had pneumonia, Philly had the flu.
Philadelphia was never going the down the same path as Detroit. It may have looked like it, and it got really bad for a good 20 years, but Philly had assets that were going to save it in the long run as long as smart people in charge didn't completely mess it up. In fact, one can say the seeds for the rebound were already being planted stating in the 1950's as the old industrial city was in it's rapid decline.

I can't say what has gone on or not gone on in Detroit since the 1950's..but Philadelphia was changing for the good and bad. First it started with ousting the hopelessly corrupt Republican machine that let the city slide backwards since the Depression. The city government was reformed and professionals were now put in city offices that were basically bastions of nepotism for years. Sure yeah, the Democrats wound up be somewhat corrupt to over the years but it has never come as close as the corruption of the old Republican machine. So..a new city charter and offices. Check. In the 1950's, new housing was still going up in the Far Northeast. This area would provide a pretty stable tax base for the city for many years while North and West Philly hollowed out. In Center City, the biggest change was tearing down the old Pennsylvania Railroad Viaduct (The Chinese Wall) that literally sucked the life out of the that part of town. Many of Philadelphia's West Market skyscrapers now sit on that footprint. We would not have the modern Center City with that still plopped in the middle of town. While the initial Penn Center was not Ed Bacon's finest hour, it was a start. Also, the makeover of Society Hill in the 1950's took a run down mess and made it one of the finest neighborhoods in the city. There would be no tourism in the historic district if that area was still a run down mess.

The 1960's sped up the industrial decline. People kept moving out, but the city wasn't knocked down yet.

The 70's were bad. Crime up. Taxes up. Bicentennial celebration blown. Biggest 10 year drop in population. An idiot for a mayor. However, he did one thing right that helped Philly in years to come, he bilked Nixon for the money to build the commuter rail tunnel under Center City and by 1984, the old Reading and PRR lines were now one unified system now run by SEPTA. The REading Terminal would go dark with the new Market East Station but that would be turned into a plus a decade later.

The 1980's. Really bad. Another idiot mayor. He blew up a whole neighborhood and the city went broke. Abandonment was everywhere. It was looking like we were following Detroit. However, the next major happening took place (another seed planted) that would spur Philadelphia back up in he coming years. The dreaded Gentleman's Agreement on height limits was broken. On the same day Mayor No Goode bombed Osage Ave, they had the ceremonial ground breaking for Liberty Place. That skyscraper was the one to put Center City back on track. Within a few years of it's completion in 1987..it's twin Liberty 2, Mellon Bank Center and what I still call the Bell Atlantic Tower...gave Philly a modern skyline. It was another small step forward even if the city still took two steps backwards with more industrial decline and people leaving the city.

The 1990's...Ed Rendell saves the city. Bankruptcy was averted. The Center City District was born...another seed planted for the future turn around. Center City had kept a decent residential population over the years but it had gotten kind of sketchy on some streets. Porn theaters were a plenty. Lots of surface lots. The Gallery opened in the 70's and it did okay for a while but a suburban mall in the city was not really the answer. But...the notion of investing in the Center City and hoping it's success would spread out in every direction was a pretty risky one to take. I think it has worked. Center City got cleaner, brighter and safer. The old Reading Terminal was part of the new convention center and the city's hospitality industry was able to start growing . Yes...the population in other parts of the city were going down, but by the end of the 90's, it was growing in Center City and it would spread out in every direction for the next two decades.

By the time the city started adding residents in the mid 2000's, the tax abatement for new housing was already 6-7 years old. It was initially for rehabs of old buildings for new housing purposes, but it was expanded for new construction. The downside of that was that it starved the schools of tax revenue and I understood why council wanted to end it recently. However, it did get people to move to the city. Also, the tax abatement did nothing to promote new affordable housing which was a minus.

So..these things are why I think Philly was never in danger of crashing like Detroit. Also it was mentioned that Philly always had a diversified economy while Detroit was more of a one industry town. What was part of Philly's diversity was the fact that it has major universities that help drive it's economy and Detroit does not. Philly has Ivy League Penn, Temple, Drexel, St. Joe's and Jefferson generating a lot of jobs and money. Penn was on the road to spending billion in University City/West Philly since the 90's and has completely transformed the area with all of those new towers and facilities. it's amazing. Drexel has not been a slouch and Temple breathed new life in the blocks around it in what seemed like a hopeless North Philly. Detroit has Wayne State. I'm sure it's a good school, but it's not Penn, Temple or Drexel and they aren't going to spend what Penn did. I can't even fathom a school spending so much but damn Penn is still doing it. Penn Medicine is a power house and we still have Jefferson.

Also, not every part of Philly saw decline and abandonment even during the worst years of population losses. There were always good sections. I don't know if that happened in Detroit or not where parts of town stayed intact. It seems like the narrative is most parts of town got hit. I don't know.

Other things like investment into PHL over the years to make the region more attactive. I mean PHL for all of it's flaws took the UScareways now American hub away from a much more modern airport in Pittsburgh. The airport was good enough for UPS to set up a shop there. 30th Street Station being one of the busiest rail stations in the US and right there on the cusp of Center City is anther major plus for Philly.

Also, the opening of the Blue Route in the suburbs in the 90's was major development for the region, making it more accessible and the connection of 95 onto the PA Turnpike to give a direct route between Philly and New York will pay dividends going forward. No more having to take back roads to get to the Jersey Turnpike from the city!

It is all of these things that the comparison of Philly and Detroit just never made sense to me. There was never any real chance that Philly was going to bleed so many people and see so many sections of the city be abandoned. I can't imagine most of South Philly ever being abandoned. Most of the Northeast as well. Chestnut Hill? Nope? Roxborough? Nope. Even Manayunk got cool again in the 90's and it's still a magnet for millennials.

Philadelphia's last major hurdle that it just can't seem to get over is reform of it's tax code. The business taxes as they are currently set up are stupid. They basically double dip on them. They hold back huge job growth that other cities see. The wage tax sucks too. It was the first city in the country to levy a wage tax in 1939 with a 1% tax on wages. (by Republicans no less) In the late 60's and 70's the city chose to raise the tax rate on things that could move away in order not to tax the things that can't be moved...like property. Mayor Crumb Bum (Rizzo) didn't want to raise property taxes so he raised the wage and business taxes in the 70's. Guess what happened, jobs and people left at it's highest 10 year rate. By the 8o's the city wage tax for residents was closing in on 5%. It's 3.8398% now. People who live outside the city but work in it has to pay the high wage tax too. That doesn't make working there that attractive. The city needs to find a tax code that allows it to compete with other cities while growing the tax base. Easier said than done but something has to give one of these days. You can't keep this tax code while Atlanta, Charlotte and Dallas take your lunch.
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  #2913  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 1:41 AM
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Philly has the advantage of being in-between NYC and Balt-Wash. Detroit is near .... Toledo?
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  #2914  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 1:53 AM
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Philly has the advantage of being in-between NYC and Balt-Wash. Detroit is near .... Toledo?
It's an advantage now. It didn't used to be. Being in New York's shadow was a burden. It wasn't that long ago where something would pack up and leave Philly for New York (looking at you Bell Atlantic now Verizon and no you can't have all of Comcast). It was just easy to bypass Philly between NY and DC. We might have been a few hour stop along the way. Now people stay for a few days if not being the actual intended destination. Jobs that were done in New York office towers apparently are now being done remotely in Philadelphia homes...or so I am told of the influx of former New York residents looking for cheaper places to live but still be in a city since Covid hit. I don't know how much of that is really happening or not...but somebody is moving in to all those new apartments and new homes all over town.

I really can't believe that the city only grew 5% based on all of the new housing built since 2010. It feels like it should have been way more. Philly is probably still undercounted by a decent amount.
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  #2915  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 2:00 AM
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I have family in Highland Park and there were probably 100 or less new units built in the last 20 years. It's pretty much a neighborhood that doesn't drastically look different. In about 2 Square miles. Actually I think all 100 units were built in the last 10 years. The vast majority were home renovation, flipped homes. I think echo park, silver lake, eagle Rock are similar. I do notice that in Highland Park, that there are clearly less children among the new affluent homeowners versus 30+ years ago when many immigrants from Asia and Latin America moved in and had 3+ kids.and schools were overcrowding. The kids grew up and moved out or stayed with parents and had their own kids.
Yea, Highland Park isn't a big development place yet. Just gentrification.
Same for Echo Park and Silver Lake. The demographics are changing, but they've been only doing bigger buildings the past year or so? It's very recent. You'll probably see a bigger change next census there.

I think East Hollywood is going to boom big time in the next several years. They're tearing down countless stripmalls for giant mixed use buildings. Koreatown's density is spreading north, it's pretty awesome.
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  #2916  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 2:06 AM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
Yes, I'll post it.

Assuming people still be interested, I'll post from time to time to give the cities enough spotlight, space for discussion. There are over 40 Downtowns ready, good news everywhere.
Could you please do Washington DC ?
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  #2917  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 2:11 AM
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Originally Posted by PhillyRising View Post
It's an advantage now. It didn't used to be. Being in New York's shadow was a burden. It wasn't that long ago where something would pack up and leave Philly for New York (looking at you Bell Atlantic now Verizon and no you can't have all of Comcast). It was just easy to bypass Philly between NY and DC. We might have been a few hour stop along the way. Now people stay for a few days if not being the actual intended destination. Jobs that were done in New York office towers apparently are now being done remotely in Philadelphia homes...or so I am told of the influx of former New York residents looking for cheaper places to live but still be in a city since Covid hit. I don't know how much of that is really happening or not...but somebody is moving in to all those new apartments and new homes all over town.

I really can't believe that the city only grew 5% based on all of the new housing built since 2010. It feels like it should have been way more. Philly is probably still undercounted by a decent amount.
Being in a corridor may not be that much of an advantage - otherwise Baltimore should be growing (it's not) and Newark would have turned around sooner and stronger. I don't think Philly was never an unattractive city even when its downtown was limited height wise by the city hall gentlemen's agreement. It's always had a cluster of many good universities and attractions, and many of its neighborhoods remained attractive like Penns Landing, Rittenhouse Square and the Midtown/Gayborhood. I think Detroit encouraged low density and suburbanization more than other areas because it benefited more - more cars led to more jobs. To me, Downtown Detroit never looked like it supported a city of almost 2 million.
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  #2918  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 3:22 AM
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The 10,000 line is interesting. For the Western and Midwestern "early 1900s house on a smallish lot" vernacular, neighborhoods are often in the 7,000 to 9,000/sm range. They cross the 10,000 threshhold when there's a decent amount of multifamily infill, but it doesn't have to be a ton. Or in some cases when they're poorer and full of big families.

PS I'd go slightly easy on Pittsburgh etc...they have a lot of tracts that mix densish areas with wide swaths of greenbelt. If the greenbelts were their own tracts (like Central Park in NYC), they'd score a bit higher.
St. Louis suffers from this as well. When I bothered to look at the actual census tracts, I was shocked to see that parts of neighborhoods like DeBaliviere Place, the Central West End, Tower Grove South, Soulard, etc, are all in low density tracts because they got thrown together with large city parks, industrial zones, etc.

Not saying that they would massively increase St. Louis’ numbers, but these are the types of neighborhoods you take people from out of town and their densities make them look like the suburbs.

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Sounds like run-of-the-mill gentrification?
Not exactly. The majority are moving out of north city, where there’s next to zero gentrification.

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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
I put together Downtown St. Louis numbers for the Downtown thread. It's white majority surrounded by heavily Black census tracts north of it. And as elsewhere, it's growing fast. Clearly Whites are moving in.
I’d be intrigued to see this. Although it’s sad that I can probably guess which street the demographics change after you head northward from downtown.
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  #2919  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 2:27 PM
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Originally Posted by PhillyRising View Post
I can't say what has gone on or not gone on in Detroit since the 1950's..but Philadelphia was changing for the good and bad. First it started with ousting the hopelessly corrupt Republican machine that let the city slide backwards since the Depression. The city government was reformed and professionals were now put in city offices that were basically bastions of nepotism for years. Sure yeah, the Democrats wound up be somewhat corrupt to over the years but it has never come as close as the corruption of the old Republican machine.
Re: the mayor, there was a similar situation in Detroit. A lot of the urban renewal projects that began the destruction in Detroit were pushed through by a Republican mayor in an almost authoritative fashion.

I think a really key difference between Philadelphia and Detroit was the presence of a strong universities in the city of Philadelphia. Philadelphia has Penn, Temple, and Drexel right there in the heart of the city, which were strong forces to stabilize the core. Detroit's universities are all mostly commuter schools, and only Wayne State is located near the core of the city. If the University of Michigan was still in Detroit, and not 40 miles down the road, it would have been a strong force to stabilize the city's population.
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  #2920  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2021, 3:25 PM
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Philly went through a long, slow industrial decline from the late 19th century when factories were moving to new "hot" cities like Detroit. Philly wasn't a one-industry town and it didn't really blow up all at once in the latter half of the 20th century like in Detroit. I don't think there is much special of a reason to compare Philadelphia and Detroit aside from their peak mid-century populations, have similar area of the city, and they both became the byword for urban decline in the US.

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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
The 10,000 line is interesting. For the Western and Midwestern "early 1900s house on a smallish lot" vernacular, neighborhoods are often in the 7,000 to 9,000/sm range. They cross the 10,000 threshhold when there's a decent amount of multifamily infill, but it doesn't have to be a ton. Or in some cases when they're poorer and full of big families.

PS I'd go slightly easy on Pittsburgh etc...they have a lot of tracts that mix densish areas with wide swaths of greenbelt. If the greenbelts were their own tracts (like Central Park in NYC), they'd score a bit higher.
You make some good points. On the issue of greenbelt or other industrial or non-residential use sprinkled throughout a city, I think that is why weighted density is the best measurement since it accounts for how density is felt by the average individual in a city/neighborhood rather than just a straight calculation of number of people in a specific area without an account for how the land is used.

Also, Pittsburgh is an aging city with low land value and without much immigration. That probably hurts it density-wise because there are a lot of old people living one or two people per dwelling unit. In California, you have high land prices so people are stuffed in already plus you have a lot more immigrant families with a lot of kids (plus more native-born families with kids). Even in eastern PA cities like York, Allentown, and Reading, you have a lot of latino immigrants with larger families. So Pittsburgh looks artificial less dense since there is less need for people to cram themselves in.
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