The US Census Bureau thread

[subterranean]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

I was just looking at the Wikipedia page for US MSA rankings, and was shocked to see New Orleans has dropped to the 58th largest with a population of only 962,165.

I knew it wasn't a huge place, but still thought it was in the 1.3 or 1.4 million range. It's shocking to me to see it ranked lower than places such as Greenville, SC, Omaha, NE, and Tulsa, OK

It just has an outsized reputation. It’s only had one decade where it lost population as a Metro. Grand Rapids MSA is larger than all of those metros (and other seemingly bigger places like Honolulu, Buffalo, Albuquerque, Boise) but doesn’t have anywhere near the cultural cache.

[SpawnOfVulcan]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

I was just looking at the Wikipedia page for US MSA rankings, and was shocked to see New Orleans has dropped to the 58th largest with a population of only 962,165.

I knew it wasn't a huge place, but still thought it was in the 1.3 or 1.4 million range. It's shocking to me to see it ranked lower than places such as Greenville, SC, Omaha, NE, and Tulsa, OK

The redefinition of MSAs dropped a Parrish from the metro's definition. That's part of why the drop was so dramatic.

[Lobotomizer]

Originally Posted by subterranean

It just has an outsized reputation. It’s only had one decade where it lost population as a Metro. Grand Rapids MSA is larger than all of those metros (and other seemingly bigger places like Honolulu, Buffalo, Albuquerque, Boise) but doesn’t have anywhere near the cultural cache.

Not suggesting any relocation, but can you imagine Grand Rapids or Tulsa having both an NFL and NBA team, though? I know the Nola team's, particularly the Saints, have a ton of support from the entire state, and even beyond so it's a different circumstance.

Originally Posted by SpawnOfVulcan

The redefinition of MSAs dropped a Parrish from the metro's definition. That's part of why the drop was so dramatic.

Did not know that, thank you.

[subterranean]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

Not suggesting any relocation, but can you imagine Grand Rapids or Tulsa having both an NFL and NBA team, though? I know the Nola team's, particularly the Saints, have a ton of support from the entire state, and even beyond so it's a different circumstance.

A little weird, but I think they are the de facto teams for that region of the south, drawing from a larger area, which has a lot of good sports history and culture at the collegiate level.

There are stranger situations, at least to me. Green Bay/Milwaukee is strange to me. Jacksonville having NFL has never not been weird to me. Portland not having a pro baseball team is incredibly weird to me.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by subterranean

A little weird, but I think they are the de facto teams for that region of the south, drawing from a larger area, which has a lot of good sports history and culture at the collegiate level.

There are stranger situations, at least to me. Green Bay/Milwaukee is strange to me. Jacksonville having NFL has never not been weird to me. Portland not having a pro baseball team is incredibly weird to me.

New Orleans got the basketball team because the owner of the Charlotte Hornets moved it there. I don't think they would have gotten a basketball team otherwise. I believe that their football team has a well-established and rabid base, so it is not going anywhere, much like the Green Bay Packers will likely never move.

[SlidellWx]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

I was just looking at the Wikipedia page for US MSA rankings, and was shocked to see New Orleans has dropped to the 58th largest with a population of only 962,165.

I knew it wasn't a huge place, but still thought it was in the 1.3 or 1.4 million range. It's shocking to me to see it ranked lower than places such as Greenville, SC, Omaha, NE, and Tulsa, OK

For some reason, the primary suburban parish (St. Tammany) of the New Orleans metro area was dropped with the latest census definition. That removed ~275,000 people from the metro area. It's all meaningless as the Northshore (as St. Tammany is referred to locally) is very much a part of the New Orleans metro area. Of course, the larger region around New Orleans (within an hour drive) has ~3 million people. They are just counted as being in 6 different metro areas (or 4 CSA's).

[iheartthed]

Detroit is suing the US Census Bureau again, this time over the annual estimates.

Detroit sues Census Bureau, alleging its housing counts underestimate city's population

Dana Afana
Detroit Free Press
March 28, 2024

...

The city claims the Census Bureau is underestimating Detroit's population, which it says is 625,561, based on demolitions of abandoned structures and ignoring the restoration of vacant homes and construction of new homes, according to a federal lawsuit filed Tuesday.

As a result, the complaint alleges the agency's methodology is "discriminatory" toward cities like Detroit with large African American and Hispanic populations, because the policy "guarantees that poor and minority communities like Detroit will be undercounted" each year.

...

Detroit demolished more than 4,000 uninhabitable abandoned homes in 2021 and 2022, which the federal agency calculated as a population loss of 8,000 people. The bureau treats the demolition of vacant and uninhabitable structures, a years-long initiative to eliminate the city's blight, as lost housing units. For each demolished building, the agency subtracts about two residents from its population estimate, according to the lawsuit.

Detroit demolished more than 4,000 uninhabitable abandoned homes in 2021 and 2022, which the federal agency calculated as a population loss of 8,000 people. The bureau treats the demolition of vacant and uninhabitable structures, a years-long initiative to eliminate the city's blight, as lost housing units. For each demolished building, the agency subtracts about two residents from its population estimate, according to the lawsuit.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/loc...n/73128598007/

I'm overall skeptical of claims that Detroit is being systematically undercounted, but I do think the city is pointing out a real flaw in how the USCB creates those estimates. If indeed people are starting to reabsorb abandoned housing then it could be a glaring hole in the estimate methodology. I'm pretty skeptical that this is happening on a wide scale, though. USCB interim census estimates in Detroit tend to be too generous instead of prone to undercounting. Both the 2010 and 2020 census results came in below the annual estimates.

[sopas ej]

From NPR:

Next U.S. census will have new boxes for 'Middle Eastern or North African,' 'Latino'

MARCH 28, 2024
8:44 AM ET
HEARD ON ALL THINGS CONSIDERED

On the next U.S. census and future federal government forms, the list of checkboxes for a person's race and ethnicity is officially getting longer.

The Biden administration has approved proposals for a new response option for "Middle Eastern or North African" and a "Hispanic or Latino" box that appears under a reformatted question that asks: "What is your race and/or ethnicity?"

Going forward, participants in federal surveys will be presented with at least seven "race and/or ethnicity" categories, along with instructions that say: "Select all that apply."

After years of research and discussion by federal officials for a complicated review process that goes back to 2014, the decision was announced Thursday in a Federal Register notice, which was made available for public inspection before its official publication.

[...]

The "White" definition has changed, and "Latino" is now a "race and/or ethnicity."

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

From NPR:

Next U.S. census will have new boxes for 'Middle Eastern or North African,' 'Latino'

MARCH 28, 2024
8:44 AM ET
HEARD ON ALL THINGS CONSIDERED

On the next U.S. census and future federal government forms, the list of checkboxes for a person's race and ethnicity is officially getting longer.

The Biden administration has approved proposals for a new response option for "Middle Eastern or North African" and a "Hispanic or Latino" box that appears under a reformatted question that asks: "What is your race and/or ethnicity?"

Going forward, participants in federal surveys will be presented with at least seven "race and/or ethnicity" categories, along with instructions that say: "Select all that apply."

After years of research and discussion by federal officials for a complicated review process that goes back to 2014, the decision was announced Thursday in a Federal Register notice, which was made available for public inspection before its official publication.

[...]

The "White" definition has changed, and "Latino" is now a "race and/or ethnicity."

We'll see. Middle Eastern was supposed to be split from "white" in the 2020 census, but the Trump administration rolled the change back.

[ChiSoxRox]

A nice sign of urban revival in the latest estimates (setting aside the usual caveats on them, and just taking the numbers) is San Francisco ticking positive again, and the other Bay Area counties down only a fraction of a percent versus the Covid plunge.

I dug through the methodology, and the main source for estimating internal migration is tax returns, i.e. people identifying if they relocated. I'm musing there might be a year or so lag then on relocation reporting: if someone left during COVID but came back in 2023, they would be skipped in this newest round that would be based off of 2022 movement. That time lag might be a factor in why the local estimates seem to have a lingering covid effect in addition to the difficulty of accurately tracking highly mobile, often under-reported urban populations.

[Buckeye Native 001]

*Just deleted a bunch of posts. Keep politics in the CE Toilet and knock off the racial and political generalizations.*

[Buckeye Native 001]

I'm so used to the AFC North hating and beating the shit out of each other every season and Packers-Bears, but had no idea until the last few seasons how serious a rivalry is Saints-Falcons. Those folks hate each other.

[ssiguy]

Every Canadian city would kill to have growth rates as slow as the US ones. I don't think there is a city over 200,000 in Canada that is growing by LESS than 2% a year. Canada grew by 3.2% last year and Greater Toronto grew by 250,000. Calgary and Edmonton are both growing at a numbing 5% a year. Montreal is growing at over 100k a year and Vancouver 70k. This is why Canada has such a housing crisis and tens of thousands living on the streets every night.

[dave8721]

Looks like the Census still has issues with counting immigrant communities:

https://wsvn.com/news/local/florida/...e-2020-census/

Almost 10% of Florida’s youngest children were missed during the 2020 census


Children age 4 and under in Florida were undercounted by almost 10% during the 2020 census, according to estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau. The bureau said the estimated error was the largest undercount of young children by any U.S. state.

More than 112,000 children age 4 or younger were overlooked in Florida during the 2020 tally which helps determine federal funding and political power every 10 years, according to Demographic Analysis estimates using administrative records to estimate the population’s size.

The Demographic Analysis is one of the tools the Census Bureau uses to calculate how good a job it did of counting every U.S. resident during a census that determines how many congressional seats each state gets.

Vermont had the smallest undercount of young children during the 2020 census, with a negligible rate of 0.02%, the equivalent of six children.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by dave8721

Looks like the Census still has issues with counting immigrant communities:

The CB seems to struggle with anything that isn't traditional nuclear families living individually in detached suburban houses.

[DetroitMan]

Although it's just a one year estimate, its nice to see Detroit growing again.

'Detroit is a vibrant and growing city again'; population grows for first time since 1957

Detroit’s population declined consistently through the last several decades, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau — until this week.

Mayor Mike Duggan’s administration publicly fought the federal agency’s count of Detroit residents and sued the Census Bureau multiple times seeking what the city considers accurate figures. He has even described the agency as a “national clown show” for previously reporting a decrease in the city’s population estimates. But new figures show Detroit grew from 631,366 in 2022 to 633,218 residents in 2023, according to the bureau’s annual population estimate released Thursday.

“This is the news we’ve been waiting for 10 years,” Duggan said. "This is the first time since 1957 that the Census Bureau has put Detroit in the category of a growing city in population, so it probably means more to our national brand than the NFL draft did. Many big cities in the country have been losing population year after year. To have Detroit be growing is a pretty major change."

Detroit reached its highest population point of nearly 2 million in 1950. Amid the lawsuits, the city dived into ways to understand how the bureau arrives at its estimates. Officials were upset after the 2020 decennial census revealed a population decline of 10.5% in Detroit, numbers that Kurt Metzger, founder of Data Driven Detroit, called "abysmal and problematic." Although Metzger said he has not seen a population increase in Detroit since 1957, the bureau has been penalizing the city for its demolitions.

'The city has never gotten credit for rehab'
"What we've been arguing is the city doesn’t demolish buildings that were occupied. There are buildings that were unoccupied and uninhabitable for years in many cases. Just because we're demolishing, does not mean we should lose population," Metzger said.

The city's latest lawsuit argues that for each demolished structure, the agency subtracts about two residents from its population estimate. "There's been a lot of work at the city level to look at those homes that were demolished. What was their status prior? Were they occupied?" Metzger said. "The city has never gotten credit for rehab. A lot of the work coming through the (Detroit) Land Bank (Authority), where you have homes that were fixed up and sold. There's been a lot of work done to better understand how the bureau works with housing, and get the bureau to understand what's going on in the city. "The city challenged the 2021 and 2022 population estimates, to which the agency responded by increasing its figures. Numbers can fluctuate year after year. Population estimates come via a third-party data program through the federal agency that does not involve surveying respondents but uses administrative data sources to create estimates, according to Kristina Barrett, spokesperson for the Census Bureau.

"These third-party data sources include vital statistics data for government agencies, Medicare, IRA, etc. We have a set deadline for data in order to produce estimates according to our schedule. Sometimes these data do not reach us in time to be included in our release. This is why we revise previous year's data. Only the previous year is revised if needed," Barrett said in an email.

Michigan population surprise
Said Duggan, "They added 11,000 to last year, but the more important thing is they reported that we grew by 1,800 last year, even over and above that. For many years, Detroit led Michigan in population loss. In 2023, Detroit led Michigan in population gain. That’s something I never thought I’d see." The state's population grew last year by 3,980 people, up 0.04% from 2022 to 10,037,261, according to the Census Bureau. However, Michigan's total population remains lower than it was in 2020 when the decennial census recorded 10,077,331 residents.

Metzger has predicted population increases for several years, though the city is often "dinged by these demolitions," he said.

"I'm thinking the city is somewhere between 650,000 to 670,000 (residents). I'm not putting us back at 700,000 yet," Metzger said, adding that he bases his data on housing-related numbers.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/loc...s/73701788007/

[Emprise du Lion]

Originally Posted by DetroitMan

Although it's just a one year estimate, its nice to see Detroit growing again.

'Detroit is a vibrant and growing city again'; population grows for first time since 1957

https://www.freep.com/story/news/loc...s/73701788007/

I honestly wish the City of St. Louis had sued as well. We suffer from much of the same issues that Detroit has, especially in terms of demolition of long vacant properties hurting the estimates.

Right now the estimates have St. Louis' population loss accelerating, but this is in spite of there being more active water service accounts in the city now than 6 years ago, more housing and apartments going up, more jobs currently available across the city and metro, etc. The only way it can make sense to me as someone on the ground is if all of North City decided they were hitting the exit right now.

I guess we'll see in 2030.

[Austin55]

City level numbers should be out this month. Does the census release the exact date ahead of time or do they just drop when they drop?

[jaxg8r1]

I believe they should be out Thursday morning (or actually the embargo ends Thursday at midnight).

[Innsertnamehere]

Almost surreal to think Detroit has finally reversed its decline- in some ways it felt like the day would never come.

You definitely feel it in the city too. The city still has lots of problems, but many areas have an energy and growth that would have been unthinkable 10 years ago.