The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[SpongeG]

What do you get in Ontario? In BC it is $5000 (federal) + $4000 if the car is under $80,000 and than scales down to $1000 up to $100,000.

[Innsertnamehere]

$5k federal incentive only. Model 3s start at $55k before tax in Canada, so $50k post rebate. A US Tesla sells post rebate for the equivalent of $43k, plus lower sales taxes in most states too.

[SpongeG]

ok thx for the info. I was reading today that the Model Y has also dropped in price.

[Jaws]

Tesla Model S LR is now sub $100k. No more luxury tax. It was $118k earlier this year. And, most importantly, a steering wheel is now available.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Tesla Model 3s are currently listed at $31k, inflation adjusted, in 2017 dollars when the model was first introduced. With the EV rebate, even lower.

I know I sure as hell would be buying one today if I had access to the US EV rebate.

Yes, it is amazing how sales can be effected when the government distorts the free market. However, as they're finding out in Germany, when you withdraw those subsidies EV sales decline.

Germany's electric car sales plummet in September

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Yes, it is amazing how sales can be effected when the government distorts the free market. However, as they're finding out in Germany, when you withdraw those subsidies EV sales decline.

Germany's electric car sales plummet in September

Of course the sales declined in September because, with potential buyers knowing the incentives were going to end, sales of evs in Germany had doubled in August. There were still 32,000 sold in September, even without the incentives.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Yes, it is amazing how sales can be effected when the government distorts the free market. However, as they're finding out in Germany, when you withdraw those subsidies EV sales decline.

Germany's electric car sales plummet in September

For sure. Ontario had an (IIRC) $7,500 EV incentive before 2018, which the PCs squashed. Sales dropped in about half when it was dropped from what I recall, but the EV market was also much, much smaller than it is today.

The Feds basically brought in the federal $5k incentive because Ontario dropped their incentive.

In Ontario with only the federal incentive, only 6% of new vehicle sales are EVs right now - compared to BC where it's over 15%.

Eventually there will be a hit to sales when the subsidies are dropped, but at that point EVs will hopefully be much more competitive with ICEs and it won't be too bad. They are already getting fairly close in terms of lifetime operating costs. Another 5 years or so and I think they will be competitive without subsidies.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Of course the sales declined in September because, with potential buyers knowing the incentives were going to end, sales of evs in Germany had doubled in August. There were still 32,000 sold in September, even without the incentives.

Read the article. It is a year-over-year decline for September, not month-over-previous month.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Read the article. It is a year-over-year decline for September, not month-over-previous month.

But what they're saying is that there was a surge of people who would likely have bought in Sept. but instead rushed to buy before the incentive ended. Which caused sales in Aug to spike. So to make a reasonable year-over-year comparison for Sept. you'd need to take the excess sales from Aug and apply them to the Sept. figure. Sounds perfectly plausible to me.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

But what they're saying is that there was a surge of people who would likely have bought in Sept. but instead rushed to buy before the incentive ended. Which caused sales in Aug to spike. So to make a reasonable year-over-year comparison for Sept. you'd need to take the excess sales from Aug and apply them to the Sept. figure. Sounds perfectly plausible to me.

And do you think sales will recover in October? There's a reason VW is halting production temporarily at their ID3 plant.

[SpongeG]

I can't find the Canada prices but Kia has released US pricing as it starts reservations for the EV9. I thought Kia was meant to be the cheaper alternative to Hyundai but so far the KIA EV's have been costing more.

2024 Kia EV9 EV SUV MSRP (excludes destination charges of US$1,495)
Model Name MSRP
EV9 Light RWD US$54,900
EV9 Light Long Range RWD US$59,200
EV9 Wind e-AWD US$63,900
EV9 Land e-AWD US$69,900
EV9 GT-Line e-AWD US$73,900

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And do you think sales will recover in October? There's a reason VW is halting production temporarily at their ID3 plant.

There is.

[Truenorth00]

At $100/kWh battery pack cost, an EV with 200-300km range costs the same to manufacture as its gas equivalent. We just reached that point in battery costs. Increasingly, the electric model might cost a small premium more. Kinda like diesel models. If the electric model is $3-5k more, it becomes a no-brainer to buy. That's easily paid back in 2-4 years.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Changing City

There is.

We've seen very little of the Chinese EV flood in North America. So most Canadians and Americans are just clueless about this. Elsewhere that is putting substantial price pressure on EVs and possibly even on some segments of the ICEV market itself. They will come for the US and Canada at some point. Will be interesting to see the takes here then.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

We've seen very little of the Chinese EV flood in North America. So most Canadians and Americans are just clueless about this. Elsewhere that is putting substantial price pressure on EVs and possibly even on some segments of the ICEV market itself. They will come for the US and Canada at some point. Will be interesting to see the takes here then.

No reason they can't enter the market competitively here. What will be interesting is how protectionist the US and Canada get against another foreign OEM.

I still maintain one of the major players from US, Japan, or Europe will be bankrupt before 2030. Likely one that isn't taking EVs seriously.

[goodgrowth]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

No reason they can't enter the market competitively here. What will be interesting is how protectionist the US and Canada get against another foreign OEM.

I still maintain one of the major players from US, Japan, or Europe will be bankrupt before 2030. Likely one that isn't taking EVs seriously.

Just one?

I predict multiple will go out of business and the rest will consolidate to pool resources.

Wouldn't be surprised if there is just 1 legacy auto company per country after it's all said and done.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

Just one?

I predict multiple will go out of business and the rest will consolidate to pool resources.

Wouldn't be surprised if there is just 1 legacy auto company per country after it's all said and done.

That's a pretty cold prediction! I did specify 2030, which isn't too far away.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

We've seen very little of the Chinese EV flood in North America. So most Canadians and Americans are just clueless about this. Elsewhere that is putting substantial price pressure on EVs and possibly even on some segments of the ICEV market itself. They will come for the US and Canada at some point. Will be interesting to see the takes here then.

The USA sensibly has a 25% tarriff on them. Canada should do the same, there's no way these spyware wagons should be allowed onto our shores.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

Just one?

I predict multiple will go out of business and the rest will consolidate to pool resources.

Wouldn't be surprised if there is just 1 legacy auto company per country after it's all said and done.

Or they will become front brands for Chinese companies. See MG owned by SAIC.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Or they will become front brands for Chinese companies. See MG owned by SAIC.

Well that wouldn't be very interesting. Aside from MG, the Chinese (Geely) also already own Volvo and Lotus with more and more production shifting towards China.