I don't know, I think the notion that the police drawing back some policies is somehow causing crime to rise kind of destroys the logic by some that the police don't stop crimes from happening, and that only an armed society does. Gun crimes are way up in Austin, which now stand at representing 78% of the murders here at the moment. 22 of 28 murders are with a gun. And that's in a city full of gun hating liberals, but surprise, they're also high in gun loving conservative cities in Texas. Not to beat the gun drum again, so I think it's a combination of things. Yes, guns are to blame for sure. But there's more to it than that. A perception by some that the police won't come after you, which is an insanely false assumption could be part of it, even if it isn't true. I think the other more relevant parts of the picture are the ones that are unique to our present day moment in history. People are staying home in close quarters, which isn't so good for mental health, at least, for some it isn't. Some people handle it just fine like claustrophobia or any other unpleasant experience while others don't. There's the financial distress factor, loneliness, fear and paranoia of the unknown, etc. Nothing about this time is normal, so it's going to be really hard to peg any one cause.
I document and record every murder case here and post them, even recording the day of the week they're happening, but one thing I haven't followed is race, just because I think it's largely pointless to do so since crime happens with every race and for all kinds of reasons. We can blame BLM if we want to, but in Austin, black people make up a very small minority of the population compared to white and Hispanic people. Gun crime is up here across all races here. The one commonality with them is drugs, lack of education and lacking financial stability.
As I've said on the forum in the Covid thread, I'm a numbers/statistics geek. I've always been. My discovery of Skyscraperpage was as much about numbers/stats as it was about urban/skyscraper geekdom.
Here is the month by month numbers for Austin going back to 2013. I was also reading a post of mine from 2007 where I posted about there being 5 or 6 murders in July of that year, and that it was the highest total for a month in Austin in 15 years. That was in 2007. Now, compare the numbers.
2021 - Jan 7, Feb 9, Mar 11,
2020 - Jan 6, Feb 6, Mar 9, Apr 4, May 5, Jun 9, Jul 5, Aug 6, Sep 5, Oct 6, Nov 6, Dec 2
2019 - Jan 4, Feb 7, Mar 4, Apr 4, May 5, Jun 5, Jul 6, Aug 6, Sep 2, Oct 1, Nov 5, Dec 8
2018 - Jan 4, Feb 1, Mar 8, Apr 3, May 4, Jun 5, Jul 2, Aug 5, Sep 8, Oct 1, Nov 3, Dec 1
2017 - Jan 1, Feb 6, Mar 7, Apr 1, May 5, Jun 3, Jul 3, Aug 6, Sep 2, Oct 2, Nov 0, Dec 7
2016 - Jan 1, Feb 1, Mar 1, Apr 3, May 4, Jun 6, Jul 10, Aug 6, Sep 11, Oct 6, Nov 4, Dec 6
2015 - Jan 2, Feb 6, Mar 3, Apr 5, May 1, Jun 4, Jul 2, Aug 3, Sep 4, Oct 1, Nov 4, Dec 9
2014 - Jan 4, Feb 3, Mar 6, Apr 2, May 1, Jun 4, Jul 2, Aug 1, Sep 4, Oct 5, Nov 7, Dec 5
2013 - Jan 3, Feb 6, Mar 1, Apr 4, May 5, Jun 2, Jul 4, Aug 2, Sep 6, Oct 5, Nov 2, Dec 5