DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[bob rulz]

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

But seriously, Canada’s skyscraper boom seems to be part of a worldwide trend, so I have this hope that the U.S. is just a few years behind (perhaps due to a slower recovery from The Great Recession or something?) but will soon be joining the trend, in which case downtown Denver would be poised to boom harder than any of its peers of similar size.

Sorry for commenting on a few days old post.

But the U.S. HAS been a part of this skyscraper boom. Before the recession, the U.S. was in the midst of one of its biggest skyscraper booms of all time. And it wasn't just New York City and Miami. The issue is that since the recession began, New York and Miami are the only major cities that have maintained strong enough economies with the demand to continue a skyscraper boom. Now that the economy is getting stronger, we're seeing many delayed projects all around the U.S. getting back on track, and new projects are popping up in many cities. It's going to take a couple of more years removed from the recession to really see the fruits of this, in the same way that the skyscraper boom peaked around 2010, a couple of years after the recession began, but it's happening.

As long as we don't see any more recessions, I think the 2015-2025 period could rival the early 80s-early 90s period for skyscraper construction in the U.S., except hopefully with overall better designed buildings (although probably not with the same amount of excessive build-up, it's amazing how quickly a lot of American skylines boomed during that time period).

[mhays]

Apartments should boom because the market is crazy for urban living, and midsized office towers should do well with the economic recovery because workers tend to like urban locations assuming the city is seen positively enough. But I'd put condos in the moderate category, and larger office towers will be difficult.

The 1980s office boom was based on cheap federally-backed credit, which allowed developers to overbuild on spec. That's not happening again. Now you generally need to pre-lease, and big towers have a big disadvantage in taking much longer to build and also costing more per square foot. Some can build on spec but they'll tend to limit their risk, and it only works if just a few jump in.

The 2005 condo boom was based on artificially-cheap/available credit plus a feeling of urgency and euphoria among buyers. Neither appear poised to come back, due to policy and in the latter case until the bust is forgotten by enough people. The presale financing method will return when prices justify construction by enough margin, and buying makes sense even to moderately cautious people.

Hotels are back in many markets, and can be part of mixed-use buildings at least, as well as mid-sized independent towers. If you're building a huge hotel, it'll be more cost-effective to do a wide slab rather than go really tall.

[bob rulz]

Certainly residential towers are in much better shape than office towers right now and for the foreseeable future. Either way, they're still skyscrapers. In the case of hotels, maybe it's more cost-effective generally speaking to go wide than to go tall, but in many downtown cores, there's not enough space to go wide, so they basically have to go tall (not to mention any regulations that may be in place regarding how much of a block the building is allowed to take up, etc).

I don't think we'll be seeing cities breaking their previous height records left and right like what happened during the 70s and 80s, but I think we will see a lot of skyscraper infill in older cities, and still a few new height records being broken. Oklahoma City, Austin, Miami, hell even New York broke height records recently, Charlotte just got their 2nd and 3rd tallest, Salt Lake will probably (although not for sure) break it with their convention center hotel, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and San Francisco are currently building their new tallest, there's probably other smaller cities that I'm unaware of as well. Hopefully sprawlitopia places like Phoenix will catch on, too (although I certainly wouldn't hedge any bets on it). So while the factors behind the new skyscraper boom are certainly different than what occurred in the 80s and early 90s, and perhaps even from the period just before the recession, the trend towards urban living and the re-focus on downtown areas, plus a general positive image of skyscrapers in general that seems to have gone truly global (even Europe is starting to shed their anti-skyscraper image), the United States is bound to see their own huge skyscraper boom as well. It's inevitable.

Sorry I don't mean to derail this thread. It is about Denver after all (I have been following this thread out of interest in our closest urban neighbor) but I don't have any comments to make because, well, I don't live there.

[TakeFive]

mhays... I assume you're referring mostly to the Denver Market. Otherwise I agree with bob rulz.

When the recession hit, developer owners quickly walked away from new office towers in San Francisco. Now they're all full and building again. Chicago and Charlotte are a similar story. Both Houston and Austin are building towers. Amazing what Dallas mid-town is experiencing though that's mid-rise buildings.

As mentioned previously Denver downtown competes with the suburbs. Growing Denver companies (with good salaries) like IHS, CH2M Hill and Arrow Electronics are all in DougCo. Schwab decide to expand down there as well. Trimble Navigation, growing it's metro Denver presence (and others) are located in Boulder County.

For downtown, Davita is our hero company. O&G companies have gobbled up space also. Denver has added a surprising amount of new office space in the LoDo - Union Station areas and these new mid-rise buildings are what Ken and I prefer anyway (lol).

If bunt_q gets his wish sooner than later I would expect to see new Condo construction downtown. The 2000 block of Blake Street would be a prime opportunity for that.

[mhays]

My comments were relevant to Denver but really about any midsized city including mine.

To clarify, I'm talking about the tallest and largest towers....the 800' hotel, the 1,500,000 60-story speculative office tower, etc. An occasional spec 600,000 sf, 40-story office tower is what I mean happening in this market. But we're unlikely to see the larger version in a midsized city because tenants won't lease three years out, the cost per square foot will be above-market, and the bet is too large to go on spec. As for the hotel, a few markets can support the room rates and occupancies necessary to go 800' but it's not common. The Denver Hyatt is the sort of slab I'm referring to, and you go smaller (an L in plan is similar) from there.

When a big corporation decides to build a tower, that's different. That's Philly, OKC, Houston, et al. Subsidized public/private towers like WTC and Transbay are also different. The Austonian was condos, right, and started before the bust? Miami and LA are top-end markets. SLC's hotel isn't the sort of height I'm referring to.

What I mean is that very large spec towers aren't going to happen in most cities outside of special cases.

[navyweaxguy]

The Verve is a good filler building. But, In my opinion it's ugly as hell and will only get worse with age.

[bob rulz]

Originally Posted by navyweaxguy

The Verve is a good filler building. But, In my opinion it's ugly as hell and will only get worse with age.

I agree. That building is hideous. It's like a 70s office block that had a glass university hall crash through it.

[bcp]

I think verve looks great...really a very east coast filler building to me. Although, I see no point to the rare and random wrong colored panels.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by bcp

I think verve looks great...really a very east coast filler building to me.

Agreed, quite nice.

[Mulligan]

Originally Posted by bcp

I think verve looks great...really a very east coast filler building to me. Although, I see no point to the rare and random wrong colored panels.

I third that. I like it.

[BG918]

Some other renderings I found for EnV at 10th & Speer. Not a huge fan of the east facade. 816 Acoma which is a similar building did a much better job of hiding the parking podium IMO.



http://pagethink.com/v/project-detail/EnV-Denver-1000-Speer/6m/

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by BG918

Some other renderings I found for EnV at 10th & Speer. Not a huge fan of the east facade. 816 Acoma which is a similar building did a much better job of hiding the parking podium IMO.

Are you kidding, the east side of 816 Acoma facing Broadway is atrocious. The difference is that it is on an alley. This is why we need alleys. When you've got a street on both sides, like EnV, someone is going to get stuck with ugly.

[RyanD]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Are you kidding, the east side of 816 Acoma facing Broadway is atrocious. The difference is that it is on an alley. This is why we need alleys.

Reference:

Look at that juicy lot across from Acoma. The backside has huge potential to get covered, and I'm sure the developers knew that, so why care?

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Are you kidding, the east side of 816 Acoma facing Broadway is atrocious. The difference is that it is on an alley. This is why we need alleys. When you've got a street on both sides, like EnV, someone is going to get stuck with ugly.

Not sure what you're referring to as Env is on an alley. It just looks like EnV opted to spread the ugly around equally on the street side and the alley side. Probably because that reduced the ugly on the alley side and there's a low chance that it would be covered up in the next 20 years.

[BG918]

The Acoma side garage is completely concealed, and gives Acoma between 8th and 9th an urban feel with residences on both sides. Too bad EnV couldn't do the same thing for their Cherokee side garage. The Broadway side of Acoma will likely eventually be covered by new development; it's less likely at EnV with the existing commercial buildings and narrow triangular lot. I still overall like the building especially the south part with the curtain wall. We need more glassy buildings in Denver.

Also in the Golden Triangle there are several other projects under construction including the for-sale! townhomes at 10th & Bannock and on the empty lot between buildings by 11th & Cherokee; the Art Hotel looks close to being topped out at 12th & Broadway and then are the apartments at 8th & Lincoln. Nearby in Governor's Park the Trader Joe's looks like it is close to being finished.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Mulligan

I third that. I like it.

Seems to me, if you see the Verve within the context of its neighbors then it looks Tony the Tiger Great. Now the name doesn't impress me.

[Cirrus]

Originally Posted by BG918

Some other renderings I found for EnV at 10th & Speer.

Major benefit to this building: The Prado won't stick out so much.

[Cirrus]

Moved Octavian's post with the article from the Atlantic to the transportation thread. It's one thing when discussions naturally flow into a transportation topic, but if we're posting articles fresh then let's try to put them in the right place. That'd be great. Thanks.

[seventwenty]

All in favor of knocking down the cubicle walls?

[Cirrus]

Moved RyanD's post with the supercell photo to the chitchat thread. It's one thing when discussions naturally flow into a weather/photography topic, but if we're posting unrelated weather photos fresh then let's try to put them in the right place.