Hamilton's economy?

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by thistleclub

City's long-term debt will triple by 2017
(CBC Hamilton, Samantha Craggs, Jan 29 2015)

The city’s long-term debt is expected to reach nearly $1 billion by 2017, which is triple what it was in 2013. And soon, one-seventh of your water bill will go toward paying for it.

City councillors heard on Monday that as of Dec. 31, the city’s long-term debt was about $360 million. That will balloon over the next two years to be $897 million in 2017. That’s a threefold increase from 2013, when it was $294 million.

The main issue is more than $300 million in upgrades and expansions to the Woodward Avenue water and wastewater treatment plants, said Mike Zegarac, head of finance.

Currently, about $40 on an average annual water bill of $600 goes toward paying down debt, he said. By 2019, the average annual household water bill will be $700, and $100 will go toward paying down the city’s debt.

The debt is necessary, he said, for the treatment plant improvements, which will “benefit multiple generations, so we’re debt financing that particular project over 20 years.”

Read it in full here.

That is old news, isn't it? I seem to recall this came up last year around budget time.

[SteelTown]

Report predicts jobs boost for Hamilton

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/53...-for-hamilton/

A new study predicts a bonanza of jobs will flood into Hamilton in the next two years.

The economic outlook report prepared by the Hamilton and Ontario chambers of commerce and Credit Unions of Ontario predicts Hamilton will gain 13,000 jobs over the next two years and outpace employment growth in the rest of the province.

That will drive the region's unemployment rate down to 5.8 per cent next year, a sharp change from 8.4 per cent in 2009.

For Hamilton Chamber of Commerce president Keanin Loomis, it's a good news study.

"This means we're going to be a net contributor to the growth of the province and not a drag," he said. "It shows that we're doing pretty damn well and there's no need to feel sorry for ourselves any longer."

By the numbers

Hamilton's predicted 2015 economic growth

0.9 per cent: Expected population growth;

6,100: New jobs expected in Hamilton CMA in 2015;

6,900: Expected population increase in 2015;

3.4 per cent: Expected increase in average home price over 2014;

12.7 per cent: Expected increase in value of non-residential building permits.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

^Speaking of population growth and further to the discussion on transit, Waterloo Region is predicted to leave Hamilton in the dust in the coming years.

[king10]

Originally Posted by Dr Awesomesauce

^Speaking of population growth and further to the discussion on transit, Waterloo Region is predicted to leave Hamilton in the dust in the coming years.

Sometimes too much population growth too fast isnt a good thing. Look at milton brampton and missisauga. No thanks

[Dr Awesomesauce]

^Hamilton must be in great shape then. ;-)

I'm not obsessed with population growth like so many others but in the case of Waterloo Region, it's an indicator that they're making some good decisions. In fact, much of that growth is expected to be located along the new LRT line.

[ScreamingViking]

Not sure where Raise the Hammer got their figures, but they're not the same as the Ministry of Finance's projections from last fall.

MOF provides more conservative forecasts. Waterloo is still projected to be larger than Hamilton, surpassing it in population between 2016 and 2021, but the future difference is not quite as drastic in MOF's latest numbers:

Year.....Hamilton.....Waterloo
2006........523.6.........498.5
2011........535.6.........523.8
2013........545.6.........534.8
2016........558.8.........552.6
2021........581.6.........584.7
2026........606.4.........618.0
2031........631.5.........650.9
2036........655.3.........682.5
2041........677.6.........712.7

Long range projections can really be affected by assumptions and small annual changes in growth rates, if they hold up over time. We'll have to see how it plays out, but key planning decisions in Hamilton and Waterloo Region will definitely affect what happens in each jurisdiction (along with economic and demographic trends for Ontario, and Toronto and the GGH).

Current city leadership doesn't seem to offer much cause for optimism that Hamilton will break out of its slow-growth pattern. There's a good argument that growth will happen in spite of the limited vision of the politicians and their willingness to embrace good planning, ensure the city is both attractive to commercial/industrial investment and "open for business" so that investment actually happens, and supportive of intensification by making sure it has all the things it needs to flourish. But will it be all it can be? Hamilton's future may end up being mostly driven by Toronto's growth engine, or instead it could be led by progressive leadership within the city. The choices are at hand.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

^It's all true.

In terms of those projections, you're absolutely right - lots can and will happen between now and 2031...lots.

[SteelTown]

13,000 new jobs over two years is pretty damn impressive.

I remember not too long ago Eisenberger made a promise to at least create 1,000 jobs per year and some thought that was ambitious.

If we keep these kinds of numbers I'm sure our population growth will be a lot stronger than currently predicted.

[king10]

Waterloo region also has 3 different cities in its population estimate. And with that 3 different city councils. Not sure if thats a hinderance or benefit to city planning.

If you included Burlington Grimbsy and Caledonia in Hamilton's population estimate (it's CMA) it would be larger than Waterloos even with the future estimates.

[markbarbera]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

13,000 new jobs over two years is pretty damn impressive.

I remember not too long ago Eisenberger made a promise to at least create 1,000 jobs per year and some thought that was ambitious.

If we keep these kinds of numbers I'm sure our population growth will be a lot stronger than currently predicted.

Thanks for focusing on the really positive aspect to this news, Steeltown. Too often a good news story for Hamilton is twisted until it is somehow a negative. Let's take ownership of this positive news for a change. Optimism is a much more effective driving force than cynicism.

[thistleclub]

Definitely a break in the clouds but I trust the City and the Chamber aren't taking anything for granted.

The OCC's 2015 Regional Economic Outlook for Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula breaks out the Hamilton CMA (Hamilton/Burlington/Grimsby) but not the City of Hamilton specifically.

Based on the OCC forecast, the Hamilton CMA is on track to follow the province's population trend-line over the next couple of years (2% net growth) and nudge ahead in jobs growth over the same 2015-2016 period (3.4% net growth vs Ontario's 3%).

[king10]

Originally Posted by markbarbera

Thanks for focusing on the really positive aspect to this news, Steeltown. Too often a good news story for Hamilton is twisted until it is somehow a negative. Let's take ownership of this positive news for a change. Optimism is a much more effective driving force than cynicism.

here here!

[thistleclub]

Speaking of projections, here’s a #TBT 2006-era forecast that was a little more bullish than the most recent MOF numbers.

It foresaw Hamilton hitting a population of 590,362 by 2021 and 668,417 by 2031, with 14,831 residents being added to Wards 1-5 and 17,246 to Wards 6-8 between 2011 and 2031:

Lower Hamilton
2001: 191,499
2011: 202,588
2021: 207,843
2031: 217,419

Upper Hamilton
2001: 143,100
2011: 147,473
2021: 158,531
2031: 164,719

The same outlook included an employment forecast for the City of Hamilton, indicating projected growth of 33,883 jobs 2011-2021 and an additional 46,729 jobs between 2021 and 2031.

Always encouraging to see employment momentum outpace expectations.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

Originally Posted by king10

here here!

Hear, hear!

[Beedok]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

Not sure where Raise the Hammer got their figures, but they're not the same as the Ministry of Finance's projections from last fall.

MOF provides more conservative forecasts. Waterloo is still projected to be larger than Hamilton, surpassing it in population between 2016 and 2021, but the future difference is not quite as drastic in MOF's latest numbers:

Year.....Hamilton.....Waterloo
2006........523.6.........498.5
2011........535.6.........523.8
2013........545.6.........534.8
2016........558.8.........552.6
2021........581.6.........584.7
2026........606.4.........618.0
2031........631.5.........650.9
2036........655.3.........682.5
2041........677.6.........712.7

Long range projections can really be affected by assumptions and small annual changes in growth rates, if they hold up over time. We'll have to see how it plays out, but key planning decisions in Hamilton and Waterloo Region will definitely affect what happens in each jurisdiction (along with economic and demographic trends for Ontario, and Toronto and the GGH).

Current city leadership doesn't seem to offer much cause for optimism that Hamilton will break out of its slow-growth pattern. There's a good argument that growth will happen in spite of the limited vision of the politicians and their willingness to embrace good planning, ensure the city is both attractive to commercial/industrial investment and "open for business" so that investment actually happens, and supportive of intensification by making sure it has all the things it needs to flourish. But will it be all it can be? Hamilton's future may end up being mostly driven by Toronto's growth engine, or instead it could be led by progressive leadership within the city. The choices are at hand.

I'm not sure comparing a municipality to a CMA is really fair. Also any projection past 10 years is pretty iffy.

[king10]

Originally Posted by Beedok

I'm not sure comparing a municipality to a CMA is really fair. Also any projection past 10 years is pretty iffy.

Ya, thats what I was getting at. If we compare CMA's include Burlington Grimsby.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by king10

Ya, thats what I was getting at. If we compare CMA's include Burlington Grimsby.

Yes, there is the CMA vs. city comparison that you and Beedok note.

MOF's numbers are just for Census divisions. Hamilton is a Census division. Waterloo (comprised of Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge, and a rural area) is a Census division.

Those usually align with administrative regions. Any planning decisions undertaken will apply within those boundaries.

CMAs, while not "administrative" are useful for defining the functional area of an urban agglomeration. Politically they don't really count, but in terms of growth and local economies they are definitely relevant.

I do totally agree that beyond 10 years (5 even) we're talking about unknowns. Many population projections are based on historical trends, modified by what's known or assumed about the current situation. Most often the predictions are NOT correct when the time comes.

[LikeHamilton]

The latest from Hamilton EcDev

Hamilton Investment Highlight Areas
Published on Feb 26, 2015
Looking for some of the top project areas to invest in Hamilton? This video helps you with that search.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JYE4Tm3V_Y

[king10]

A Hamilton Company "Rain Communications" just helped Tennis Canada launch its new website. Haven't ever heard of Rain, they seem relatively new. A nice national project for a Hamilton company. Tennis Canada not only redesigned the website, but launched a new logo, branding, marketing and PSA announcements. Complete marketing overhaul. Looks good IMO.

Rain Communications ‏@Rain_Inc_ 10m10 minutes ago
Super proud to be launching this website today with the amazing team from @Tennis_Canada. http://www.tenniscanada.com pic.twitter.com/d7HAFiRLa2

Tennis CanadaVerified account
‏@Tennis_Canada
@Rain_Inc_ Thanks to Team Rain for their amazing work, the site is AWESOME!

http://www.tenniscanada.com

http://rain-communications.ca


We’re a new communications agency based out of Hamilton, Ontario. We are proud to live in this city. #HamOnt is home.

[SteelTown]

Conference Board predicts 2.7 per cent growth for Hamilton in 2015

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/56...ilton-in-2015/

Hamilton's economy will grow by 2.7 per cent this year, up from 1.7 per cent in 2014, according to numbers released by the Conference Board of Canada on Thursday.

That places the city at fourth in predictions for growth, behind Toronto, Vancouver and Halifax, which are all forecasted to grow by 3.1 per cent.

"Hamilton's ongoing recovery is encouraging, especially in the city's manufacturing sector where we are expecting activity to rise by 1.8 per cent this year and another 2.3 per cent in 2016," said Alan Arcand, associate director, Centre for Municipal Studies.

The report cites positive effects from the weakening Canadian dollar and the strengthening U.S. economy.

"With Hamilton sharing the hosting duties for the upcoming Pan Am/Parapan Am Games with Toronto, growth in local economy's tourism related industries is also expected to be healthy," said Arcand.

The Conference Board predicts overall growth for Hamilton of 2.6 per cent in 2016.

The board predicts strong growth in transportation and warehousing and non-residential construction, including projects at McMaster University, the new James Street North GO Station and the Hamilton harbour cleanup.

Among 13 census metropolitan areas, the board forecasts negative growth for only Edmonton and Calgary.

Also Thursday, commercial real estate company Colliers International named Hamilton an "anchor city" for future corporate locations. Hamilton is a "city of opportunity" for corporations looking for locations, it says.

Colliers says Hamilton has five key attributes that will allow corporations relocating from the GTA to manage cuts and retain employees. Those attributes are: lower overall costs, highly skilled labour, redevelopment opportunities, much lower commute times and lifestyle amenities.