Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[Taeolas]

Well, it certainly won't help the NDP's chances in NB.

Probably won't help the Green's chances either but it is a good show of solidarity and support.

14 N.B. New Democrats jumping ship to join Greens

In their declaration of support, the members note that federal Green Party Leader Elizabeth May has visited New Brunswick, while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh hasn't set foot in the province since winning the leadership back in 2017.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Well, it certainly won't help the NDP's chances in NB.

Probably won't help the Green's chances either but it is a good show of solidarity and support.

14 N.B. New Democrats jumping ship to join Greens

NDP under Jagmeet Singh:

[Taeolas]

Woopsie! Someone jumped the gun...

Five of the 14 former provincial NDP candidates the New Brunswick Green Party claimed had defected this week have not abandoned the party.

The Green Party confirmed Thursday that its list of defectors was incorrect.

Francis Duguay, who ran for the NDP in Tracadie-Sheila in the New Brunswick election a year ago, told Radio-Canada on Thursday that he was stunned when he learned from a journalist that his name was on a declaration of support for the Green Party.
...

Jean-Maurice Landry, who ran for the NDP in Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore, said he too was contacted by Richardson this week.

Landry was the party's most successful candidate last September, winning 30 per cent of the vote in the riding. This was more than double the percentage McKenzie won in her riding in what was a dismal election result for the NDP in New Brunswick.

...

Landry and three other NDP candidates, Hailey Duffy, Madison Duffy and Betty Weir, issued a press release Thursday afternoon confirming they still support the NDP.

Someone's got a lot of 'splainin' to do.

[Taeolas]

Greg Thompson, MLA for Sait Croix has passed away. Condolences to his family and friends.

Looking at the bigger picture, this does mean we have an empty seat and the Liberals and Tories tied in the Legislature (actually with the speaker, doesn't this put the Liberals up one?). But we also have a federal election kicking off today as well as an added wrinkle.

I doubt anyone wants to do a provincial special election and federal election at the same time, but if Higgs waits until after October, then he either has a special election running into Christmas, or he leaves the seat empty until the new year (most likely to happen I suspect).

It does give David Coon and the Green party a LOT of power now. The PC's and People's Alliance need at least 1 Green vote for a majority now.

This could also be a good time (early 2020 that is, not right NOW) for Vickers to pull the trigger to try and end this minority government too.

Anyways, on the provincial government side, I think things just got interesting for the next 6 months or so.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

It does give David Coon and the Green party a LOT of power now. The PC's and People's Alliance need at least 1 Green vote for a majority now.

This could also be a good time (early 2020 that is, not right NOW) for Vickers to pull the trigger to try and end this minority government too.

Anyways, on the provincial government side, I think things just got interesting for the next 6 months or so.

It will make for interesting times.

I doubt that Vickers would want to pull the plug yet. I think the Liberal coffers are depleted, and right now, Higgs is pretty popular. If an election were held today, I think Higgs would get his majority.

I think there will be little in the way of interesting (or controversial) legislation in the fall sitting, lots of behind the scenes cooperation between the parties, and that the by-election won't be called until the new year.

I don't anticipate another provincial writ for another 12-18 months.

[PEI highway guy]

[QUOTE=Taeolas;8683892]Greg Thompson, MLA for Sait Croix has passed away. Condolences to his family and friends.

Greg was a former Conservative MP and maybe a cabinet minister at one point?

[L'homard]

Greg was certainly a federal minister at some point. Veterans Affairs

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

This could also be a good time (early 2020 that is, not right NOW) for Vickers to pull the trigger to try and end this minority government..

Actually I was just thinking. Since Brian Gallant is resigning his seat, the death of Greg Thompson will simply maintain the status quo in the legislature.

[MonctonRad]

So, here are the sizes of all the federal ridings in NB:

1) - Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe - 92,666
2) - Fredericton - 83,303
3) - Beausejour - 82,292
4) - Fundy Royal - 79,943
5) - Saint John/Rothesay - 79,363
6) - Acadie/Bathurst - 77,791
7) - Tobique/Mactaquac - 68,673
8) - New Brunswick Southwest - 65,287
9) - Madawaska/Restigouche - 60,378
10) - Miramichi/Grand Lake - 57,405

That's quite a spread in terms of population per constituency (57,405-92,666).

Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe is the obvious outlier on the high side, and Beausejour next door comes in at #3 on the list. Fundy Royal is a bit of an odd duck, occupying the territory between Moncton and the Kennibecasis Valley, but still occupies a large part of Albert County, including parts of Riverview. It is #4 on the list.

The average population per constituency in NB (using the figures provided) is 74,700. Obviously it is impossible (or even desirable) to be absolutely equitable in terms of population size per constituency, but as a general rule of thumb, they try to keep the population difference to +/- 10 % (67,230-82,170).

Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe is significantly above this, and Madawaska/Restigouche and Miramichi/Grand Lake is significantly below.

Is it time to look at redistribution?

I think perhaps.

The two smallest ridings are unusual geographic amalgams. Madawaska and the Restigouche really have nothing in common (other than the French language). Geographically, it would make more sense to lump Madawaska in with the rest of the upper Saint John river valley. Similarly Restigouche has more in common with Bathurst. Should a large part of Riverview be hived off the current Moncton/Dieppe/Riverview riding and be included instead with Fundy Royal?

This would make a lot of geographic sense, but could be offensive in ethnolinguistic and cultural terms. Its a tough nut to crack.

Thoughts?

[PEI highway guy]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

So, here are the sizes of all the federal ridings in NB:

1) - Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe - 92,666
2) - Fredericton - 83,303
3) - Beausejour - 82,292
4) - Fundy Royal - 79,943
5) - Saint John/Rothesay - 79,363
6) - Acadie/Bathurst - 77,791
7) - Tobique/Mactaquac - 68,673
8) - New Brunswick Southwest - 65,287
9) - Madawaska/Restigouche - 60,378
10) - Miramichi/Grand Lake - 57,405

That's quite a spread in terms of population per constituency (57,405-92,666).

Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe is the obvious outlier on the high side, and Beausejour next door comes in at #3 on the list. Fundy Royal is a bit of an odd duck, occupying the territory between Moncton and the Kennibecasis Valley, but still occupies a large part of Albert County, including parts of Riverview. It is #4 on the list.

The average population per constituency in NB (using the figures provided) is 74,700. Obviously it is impossible (or even desirable) to be absolutely equitable in terms of population size per constituency, but as a general rule of thumb, they try to keep the population difference to +/- 10 % (67,230-82,170).

Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe is significantly above this, and Madawaska/Restigouche and Miramichi/Grand Lake is significantly below.

Is it time to look at redistribution?

I think perhaps.

The two smallest ridings are unusual geographic amalgams. Madawaska and the Restigouche really have nothing in common (other than the French language). Geographically, it would make more sense to lump Madawaska in with the rest of the upper Saint John river valley. Similarly Restigouche has more in common with Bathurst. Should a large part of Riverview be hived off the current Moncton/Dieppe/Riverview riding and be included instead with Fundy Royal?

This would make a lot of geographic sense, but could be offensive in ethnolinguistic and cultural terms. Its a tough nut to crack.

Thoughts?

I am thinking riding redistribution may occur with a census report. We now have 308 seats or so. In the 80's/90's it was 278/282 or so. They seem to add seats/redraw the ridings every so often. As Moncton is growing I always thought Part of Dieppe would eventually go to Dominic's (SP?) riding . I can also see maybe a small are out by the casino and more of Riverview going to Fundy Royal.

On PEI, where I am, I can see changes to the 4 seating areas as well. The Charlottetown area has about 50% of the population so they may be redrawing the boundaries over here to.

[MonctonRad]

Eastern Dieppe is already part of Beausejour, and southeastern Riverview is part of Fundy Royal.

The solution to the large size of the Moncton riding is either to hive off more of Dieppe into Beausejour (and reduce the northern size of the riding to compensate), or to give more of Riverview to Fundy Royal, and give Quispamsis to the Saint John riding.

[PEI highway guy]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Eastern Dieppe is already part of Beausejour, and southeastern Riverview is part of Fundy Royal.

The solution to the large size of the Moncton riding is either to hive off more of Dieppe into Beausejour (and reduce the northern size of the riding to compensate), or to give more of Riverview to Fundy Royal, and give Quispamsis to the Saint John riding.

SAW this today on the CBC site.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...ment-1.5325518.
It discusses a much of what we were last week re: riding boundaries in Metro moncton and the process to redraw the boundaries. I did not realize how much of the three communities are outside of the riding.

[drewber]

Election Night and mostly everyone is calling for a minority government. What is not known is if it will be Liberals or Conservatives leading the way. What is everyone's opinions on tonight's outcome? I see either a liberal minority propped up by the NDP or a Conservative Minority propped up by the Bloc. It's going to be a long night

[J81]

Originally Posted by drewber

Election Night and mostly everyone is calling for a minority government. What is not known is if it will be Liberals or Conservatives leading the way. What is everyone's opinions on tonight's outcome? I see either a liberal minority propped up by the NDP or a Conservative Minority propped up by the Bloc. It's going to be a long night

At this point i think a minority is in our best interests. Trudeau has already proven he shouldnt have complete control and Scheer hasnt earned anyones trust enough yet to take full control. Im ready to give him a shot though!

[Marty_Mcfly]

Liberal minority, but it's going to be dang close.

[MonctonRad]

This was my prediction, posted in the Canada section several days ago:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Here is my own personal final pre election prediction. I'll revisit this on Monday after the election is over.

Atlantic - LIB (26), CON (5), NDP (1)
Quebec - LIB (29), CON (9), BLQ (39), PPC (1)
Ontario - LIB (68), CON (40), NDP (13)
Prairies - LIB (3), CON (22), NDP (3)
Alberta - CON (34)
BC - LIB (10), CON (18), NDP (11), GRN (2), IND (1)
Territories - LIB (3)

Total:

LIB - 139 seats
CON - 128 seats
BLQ - 39 seats
NDP - 28 seats
GRN - 2 seats
PPC - 1 seat
IND - 1 seat

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

My prediction for tonight:

LIB - 137
CON - 131
NDP - 35
BQ - 32
GRN - 2
PPC - 1
OTH - 0

Liberal minority that comes down to those BC polls (ie. I'll be long in bed before a final call is made).

And for NL:

LIB 5
NDP 1
CON 1

Pretty close between us.

[Taeolas]

And Freddy just went solid green, to match our Provincial riding I guess. That was somewhat unexpected to me. There's going to be a lot of analysis on those results I'm sure.

All around, a solid Liberal Minority government, breaking down on the usual provincial lines. Hopefully it's strong enough to hold for a year or two.

My gut feel is that Canada is sending a message to everyone. "Trudeau we aren't loving you any more, but you're a known idiot at least. Tories, smarten up and put up a real candidate that isn't taking notes from the GOP. Everyone else, you hold the reigns, make the best of it and maybe you can keep them."

I'm really hopeful that the need of support from the NDP will make Trudeau reexamine Electoral reform and actually follow through with it this time. It's an ideal opportunity to do it.

[Fischbob]

They finally called Fredericton for the Greens, haha.

And it looks like my local Conservative candidate has been defeated. Glad I opted to vote strategically this time around.

[MonctonRad]

So, here are the final standings (with my predictions bracketed).

Atlantic - LIB 26 (26), CON 4 (5), NDP 1 (1), GRN 1 (0)
Quebec - LIB 35 (29), CON 10 (9), NDP 1 (0), BLQ 32 (39), PPC 0 (1)
Ontario - LIB 79 (68), CON 36 (40), NDP 6 (13)
Prairies - LIB 4 (3), CON 21 (22), NDP 3 (3)
Alberta - CON 33 (34), NDP 1 (0)
BC - LIB 11 (10), CON 17 (18), NDP 11 (11), GRN 2 (2), IND 1 (1)

My predictions seemed pretty good in retrospect. The main difference between my predictions and the final result is that the LIB ended up doing a bit better in ON and QC than I anticipated.

National Seat Count

LIB - 157 (139)
CON - 121 (128)
BLQ - 32 (39)
NDP - 24 (28)
GRN - 3 (2)
PPC - 0 (1)
IND - 1 (1)

Nationally, the CON outpolled the LIB by greater than 1% (34.4% vs 33.1%). This is not an insignificant margin. I wonder if this will humble JT at all? If proportional representation had been used in this election, then Scheer would have had a slight plurality in seats (116 vs 112).

Thoughts:

1) - Mad Max and the PPC are done. Good news for the Conservative movement.
2) - It's a shame to see Lisa Raitt and Ralph Goodale defeated. They are both fine individuals and able politicians. Raitt may be back in a Conservative leadership bid. Goodale may also be back (senate appointment and cabinet minister).
3) - Jagmeet ultimately did not deliver, most likely due to strategic ABC voting. He did however prevent absolute disaster, and with the NDP nearly bankrupt, there will be no appetite to oust him.
4) - The big question is whether Scheer did enough to keep his job. The CON did win 22 seats more than in the last election, but with a better campaign, they should have been able to unseat JT. He's up for leadership review next year. If a heavyweight like Peter MacKay let it be known he was interested in challenging Scheer, he could be in trouble. Personally I would give Scheer a B- for effort.
5) - JT dodged the bullet this time. As PM, his leadership is safe for the time being, but I think his rivals in the party will be starting some backroom maneuvering in preparation for his ultimate departure.
6) - I think this will be a stable minority. The NDP do not have the resources for a quick election challenge, and I don't think the BLQ has any interest in a quick election either. Unless JT does something foolish, he should be around for at least another three years.