Heavy Rail, Commuter Rail, & Intercity Transportation

[Migrant_Coconut]

As much as I think a bike lane would be a waste of a railway, it's a bad sign when their business case has no actual numbers to justify $300-800 million in funding. There's only "hey, wouldn't it be nice if we could get 5,000 people to ride the train?"

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

Hard to make an economic case for restoring and maintaining the right of way (not to mention the rolling stock) for what would doubtless be a minimal ridership. It would probably benefit more people to convert the entire corridor to a rail trail - that would likely draw more bike riders than a passenger service would see, and they would also likely patronize local businesses along the line.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

As much as I think a bike lane would be a waste of a railway, it's a bad sign when their business case has no actual numbers to justify $300-800 million in funding. There's only "hey, wouldn't it be nice if we could get 5,000 people to ride the train?"

The problem is both of you are thinking of the old Dayliner service. If you were paying attention to this, it also is about commuter service for up Island to Victoria. This would relieve the traffic on the Malahat as it really is the only way in and out of Victoria, and as housing gets even more stupid in the CRD, it makes living up island and working in Victoria better. The already have bus service to Duncan and Lake Cowichan.

So, no, this line would not be a waste of money.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

The problem is both of you are thinking of the old Dayliner service. If you were paying attention to this, it also is about commuter service for up Island to Victoria. This would relieve the traffic on the Malahat as it really is the only way in and out of Victoria, and as housing gets even more stupid in the CRD, it makes living up island and working in Victoria better. The already have bus service to Duncan and Lake Cowichan.

So, no, this line would not be a waste of money.

For several hundred million bucks of investment it had better manage to get an order of magnitude better ridership than the existing bus service.

Rather than a hope that if you "build it they will come", a better reason to spend this kind of money would be "the buses can't cope".

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

For several hundred million bucks of investment it had better manage to get an order of magnitude better ridership than the existing bus service.

Rather than a hope that if you "build it they will come", a better reason to spend this kind of money would be "the buses can't cope".

How about "The only highway in and out cannot cope"? There is a ferry they could use to bypass it, or an even more twisty road that is about 4x as long to traverse.

https://www.victoriabuzz.com/2021/11...looding-video/

https://www.vicnews.com/news/malahat-remains-closed/

It opened about a day later alternating traffic. and was like that for several days.

https://www.victoriabuzz.com/2022/05...y-summer-2023/

And work is still ongoing. Some sections it is 1 lane a side.

So, no it is not just about "Can a bus do it", but more a "is there a reasonable alternative to this single route?" The answer to that is No.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Traffic everywhere in BC sucks - doesn't mean a train line to the Sunshine Coast takes priority over Hastings or North Van. If there's another flood, it's more than likely the proposed railway will be out of action too along with the highway, and then we're spending another half a billion for an alternative to the alternative... for what? Five thousand drivers?

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Traffic everywhere in BC sucks - doesn't mean a train line to the Sunshine Coast takes priority over Hastings or North Van. If there's another flood, it's more than likely the proposed railway will be out of action too along with the highway, and then we're spending another half a billion for an alternative to the alternative... for what? Five thousand drivers?

Do you know the damage the storm caused? A few trees across the ROW. Nothing washed out.

Oh, and this is not the Sunshine Coast, that is on the mainland.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Do you know the damage the storm caused? A few trees across the ROW. Nothing washed out.

Oh, and this is not the Sunshine Coast, that is on the mainland.

For now; if they put a rail bed down the ROW, it's only a matter of time before it erodes under intense rain like the highway did, and like the trains around Sumas Lake. But if you'll check your sources again, the highway was closed during the storm regardless because of the floodwater, and the railway will have the exact same problem unless they put it in a tunnel or viaduct for several billion more CAD (which of course they will not, because this isn't Cities: Skylines).

You missed the point: it might as well be the Sunshine Coast, for how useful it is to the province in general. Maybe we should build a train to Harrison Hot Springs as well?

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

How about "The only highway in and out cannot cope"?

It doesn't matter how you word it, it's only worth spending the money if it actually attracts people, and I remain unconvinced of that. I will say, though, that at least the condition of "the buses can't cope" is more suggestive of demand for a public transit solution than "the highway cannot cope".

But I'm sure there are people far smarter than me who have the right tools, experience and skills to do a better analysis - let's wait to see what they have to say before we all rush to build something with no proven demand.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

For now; if they put a rail bed down the ROW, it's only a matter of time before it erodes under intense rain like the highway did, and like the trains around Sumas Lake. But if you'll check your sources again, the highway was closed during the storm regardless because of the floodwater, and the railway will have the exact same problem unless they put it in a tunnel or viaduct for several billion more CAD (which of course they will not, because this isn't Cities: Skylines).

You missed the point: it might as well be the Sunshine Coast, for how useful it is to the province in general. Maybe we should build a train to Harrison Hot Springs as well?

Do you know anything about geography? I am beginning to think you don't. Sumas Lake was a former larger lake that was dammed and drained for farmland. The Malahat is a mountainous region. This issue that Sumas Lake had was that it became a lake. The highway became a river due to poor drainage.

The E&N rail bed is still there. The only damage was a few trees down in the wind. The problem that they are facing is they need to replace the ties and some bridges need rehabilitation. This would be easy enough to do, and it would be useful.

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

It doesn't matter how you word it, it's only worth spending the money if it actually attracts people, and I remain unconvinced of that. I will say, though, that at least the condition of "the buses can't cope" is more suggestive of demand for a public transit solution than "the highway cannot cope".

But I'm sure there are people far smarter than me who have the right tools, experience and skills to do a better analysis - let's wait to see what they have to say before we all rush to build something with no proven demand.

The analysis has been done by those smart people. Right now, They have a plan for 3 bilevels being able to be used several times each way for rush hour. I would say that is enough demand to bring it back,.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Do you know anything about geography? I am beginning to think you don't. Sumas Lake was a former larger lake that was dammed and drained for farmland. The Malahat is a mountainous region. This issue that Sumas Lake had was that it became a lake. The highway became a river due to poor drainage.

The E&N rail bed is still there. The only damage was a few trees down in the wind. The problem that they are facing is they need to replace the ties and some bridges need rehabilitation. This would be easy enough to do, and it would be useful.

The analysis has been done by those smart people. Right now, They have a plan for 3 bilevels being able to be used several times each way for rush hour. I would say that is enough demand to bring it back,.

And it's highly unlikely that a railway abandoned for 14 years has any better drainage than the TCH does. Newsflash: flooding on that level can erode the gravel and soil under the track and create giant puddles - you'd know that if you'd taken geography class.

So was the CP track on Arbutus, and yet the powers that be opted to scrap it and replace it some time in the future with one that could actually run trains; just because it's there doesn't mean it's usable. Nor does it mean that you can run a train through floodwater, which is the point I was trying to make: a storm will shut the trains down too.

Those "smart people" are a non-profit preservation group who basically said it would be nice to have three bilevels... with no estimates for ridership or profit, only napkin math. I'll wait for the folks who actually know what they're talking about.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

And it's highly unlikely that a railway abandoned for 14 years has any better drainage than the TCH does. Newsflash: flooding on that level can erode the gravel and soil under the track and create giant puddles - you'd know that if you'd taken geography class.

So was the CP track on Arbutus, and yet the powers that be opted to scrap it and replace it some time in the future with one that could actually run trains; just because it's there doesn't mean it's usable. Nor does it mean that you can run a train through floodwater, which is the point I was trying to make: a storm will shut the trains down too.

Those "smart people" are a non-profit preservation group who basically said it would be nice to have three bilevels... with no estimates for ridership or profit, only napkin math. I'll wait for the folks who actually know what they're talking about.

First off... it is not abandoned. They still run freight on some of the line. I think the furthest south the go is to Duncan.

The line was not in flood waters. What happened was the highway made a natural drainage ditch. Once the water stopped flowing, the water was gone. Again, not a drained lake that filled. This is akin to seasonal rivers that is spring are flowing fast, but in the rest of the year are bone dry.

The various groups, and not just one group, have done the business case using real world numbers and numbers that people against it can verify with their own modelling. It would be cheaper than to build a second highway up Island.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

First off... it is not abandoned. They still run freight on some of the line. I think the furthest south the go is to Duncan.

The line was not in flood waters. What happened was the highway made a natural drainage ditch. Once the water stopped flowing, the water was gone. Again, not a drained lake that filled. This is akin to seasonal rivers that is spring are flowing fast, but in the rest of the year are bone dry.

The various groups, and not just one group, have done the business case using real world numbers and numbers that people against it can verify with their own modelling. It would be cheaper than to build a second highway up Island.

Nope - both VIA passenger service and freight service were suspended in 2011 and 2014 due to the poor quality of the track. Granted, that's less than 14 years.

And during that seasonal flood, the train can’t run either; the highway itself opened again the next day. Having one of two lanes closed for repairs for a very short stretch is a natural problem with living practically anywhere, especially in the boonies.

The various professional groups have concluded (page 49) that replacing the ties and fixing the bridges at $300+ million isn’t enough to carry one bilevel train, let alone three; for that, they’d have to replace the entire track at $500-800 million... to get 1,505 passengers a day (page 59), less than most buses and definitely less than the Island Corridor Foundation's wishful 5k. If they want to put their pipe dream into action, they can do so. With their own money. Not ours.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

The various professional groups have concluded (page 49) that replacing the ties and fixing the bridges at $300+ million isn’t enough to carry one bilevel train, let alone three; for that, they’d have to replace the entire track at $500-800 million... to get 1,505 passengers a day (page 59), less than most buses and definitely less than the Island Corridor Foundation's wishful 5k. If they want to put their pipe dream into action, they can do so. With their own money. Not ours.

I think the number you quoted was from page 52, not 59.

Well said.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

I think the number you quoted was from page 52, not 59.

Clarification: PDF pages, not document pages.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Clarification: PDF pages, not document pages.

[splashflash]

Here is a story from the Times Colonist:

https://www.timescolonist.com/local-...evable-5661747

Between the meager ridership and high capital costs, this needs to be killed. The province's own analysis shows the futility of restarting the service, and it is not the feds standing in the way. Wise politicians will avoid using taxpayer money for this. If the municipal politicians want it so badly, why have they no ponied up any money.

[chowhou]

Rail is amazing, love me some rail, but if the WCE can only afford to run 5 trains a day between Mission and Vancouver through the entire Lower Mainland at a highly subsidized cost, how many trains and for how much to run between Langford and Victoria? Pretty much guaranteed to be fewer trains and for more money.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Rail is amazing, love me some rail, but if the WCE can only afford to run 5 trains a day between Mission and Vancouver through the entire Lower Mainland at a highly subsidized cost, how many trains and for how much to run between Langford and Victoria? Pretty much guaranteed to be fewer trains and for more money.

Why is it that GO and EXO(AMT) have expanded beyond their original routes and have become successful whereas WCE has been flat since it opened?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Why do Toronto and Montreal have more sports teams than we do? Because ON and QC have infinite money and space, and we do not.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Why is it that GO and EXO(AMT) have expanded beyond their original routes and have become successful whereas WCE has been flat since it opened?

Well, for one thing the population growth of Mission is very modest. The Mission School District, (according to BC Stats), grew from 26,000 to 36,000 between 1986 and 1996. Only 4,400 more people wee added in the next 10 years, to 40,500 in 2006. Another 4,500 were added in the next decade, to 45,000 in 2016. The growth isn't changing - in 2021 total population was estimated at a total of 48,000.

In 1996, according to the census only 380 people who lived in Mission travelled to work in Vancouver, and twenty years later it had risen to 525.

In 1996 8,410 Mission residents drove to work, and 220 took transit. Less than half of them travelled to Vancouver.

In 2016 16,340 Mission residents drove to work, and 555 took transit (and only some of them the train to Vancouver).