The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

As for support for China being strong on SSP, I don't think that's the case. People who trot out the tired "But China" whataboutism get called out for it because it's meant as nothing more than an excuse to do nothing to fight Climate Change. I oppose China on most issues but it's completely hypocritical to hear the same people that want to sell them hydrocarbons whining about their GHG emissions and pretending that per capita emissions don't matter.

I think I'm just getting tired of people getting "called out" continually on this forum. I mean, after awhile it gets repetitive to the point of being irritating. Not to mention the rude tone people tend to use - it takes away from the enjoyment of this forum.

Additionally, sometimes people are "called out" when they're not intending to repeat one of the trigger points, such as "But China" or whatever. Some folks don't even seem to want to take the time to read the content and understand the intent before jumping all over the person for expressing an opinion. It's like they think that everybody who posts here that doesn't share their opinion has some sort of agenda, when they are actually just trying to participate in a discussion.

[MolsonExport]

COP26: The truth behind the new climate change denial

As world leaders met at the COP26 summit to debate how to tackle climate change, misleading claims and falsehoods about the climate spiralled on social media.

Scientists say climate change denial is now more likely to focus on the causes and effects of warming, or how to tackle it, than to outright deny it exists.

We've looked at some of the most viral claims of the past year, and what the evidence really says.
The claim: A 'Grand Solar Minimum' will halt global warming
The claim: Global warming is good
The claim: Climate change action will make people poorer
The claim: Renewable energy is dangerously unreliable

[someone123]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Weird that China gets so much flak on here when India is having identical issues

In absolute terms China emits many times more CO2 than India does. But I agree India is not really substantially different and if we care about climate change India has to be a part of a global plan that provides them alternatives to coal power.


https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

[someone123]

Here's the Canadian chart. Most provinces don't have growing emissions but do have growing populations. BC's population went up by something like 40% from 1990 -> 2015. And many provinces have shifted toward renewables (NS was something like 9% a few years ago and is headed to 70%; this came with a price tag). Yet we tend to hear constant negativity about Canada in this domain.

I think we can all agree from this chart that New Brunswick is the real problem! They need to get to net zero and stop making us look bad.


Source

[esquire]

Goddamnit New Brunswick.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by someone123

In absolute terms China emits many times more CO2 than India does. But I agree India is not really substantially different and if we care about climate change India has to be a part of a global plan that provides them alternatives to coal power.

The fundamental issue with this frame is that India is only emitting less because it is less developed. India, isn't going to stop developing though. And if we don't break their trend, we'll have another China on our hands, before long. Oh and behind India, there's also Africa to worry about. It's rapidly urbanizing and developing too. And we're about to see substantial increases in Africa's emissions. We need to get ahead of these trends. Not wait till they are major challenges.

This is exactly why developing countries wanted financing for renewables. The developed world seems more interested in giving them hypocritical lectures instead.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by someone123

Here's the Canadian chart. Most provinces don't have growing emissions but do have growing populations. BC's population went up by something like 40% from 1990 -> 2015. And many provinces have shifted toward renewables (NS was something like 9% a few years ago and is headed to 70%; this came with a price tag). Yet we tend to hear constant negativity about Canada in this domain.


Source

Just to add perspective. Here's what it looks like per capita:

[rofina]

On the technocratic positive side of things since the doom and gloom is real strong lately;

Chinese scientists complete starch synthesis from CO2, revolutionary for agricultural production and promoting carbon neutrality

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235013.shtml

Preliminary lab tests show that synthetic starch is about 8.5 times more efficient than starch produced by conventional agriculture. Under the condition of sufficient energy supply and current technical parameters, the annual production of starch of 1 cubic meter bioreactor is equivalent to the annual production of starch of 5 mu (0.33 hectare) of corn in China.

Apparently a 25 by 25 mile tract of land is all that would be needed to scale this to a point that it has meaningful global effects.

Few folks are talking about it more seriously, the numbers are shockingly achievable and a facility could be built out for tens of billions, which on the grand scheme is pennies these days.

[JHikka]

China apparently can't innovate, though. Wrap it up, boys.

Originally Posted by someone123

I think we can all agree from this chart that New Brunswick is the real problem! They need to get to net zero and stop making us look bad.

The monopoly that governs NB has to be overthrown first.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

So if my neighbor, who lives alone, generates 10 garbage bags of waste per week, and the family across the street, which has 6 kids + two adults, generates the same waste, they are both equally at fault?

Of course not! As someone123 suggested, the kidless guy is having a much better behavior for the long-term health of the planet than the family across the street.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

I think I'm just getting tired of people getting "called out" continually on this forum. I mean, after awhile it gets repetitive to the point of being irritating. Not to mention the rude tone people tend to use - it takes away from the enjoyment of this forum.

Additionally, sometimes people are "called out" when they're not intending to repeat one of the trigger points, such as "But China" or whatever. Some folks don't even seem to want to take the time to read the content and understand the intent before jumping all over the person for expressing an opinion. It's like they think that everybody who posts here that doesn't share their opinion has some sort of agenda, when they are actually just trying to participate in a discussion.

There are several forumers who routinely use that argument and have pretty clear histories of denial and or bad faith arguments. You are not one of those people.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

I think I'm just getting tired of people getting "called out" continually on this forum. I mean, after awhile it gets repetitive to the point of being irritating. Not to mention the rude tone people tend to use - it takes away from the enjoyment of this forum.

Additionally, sometimes people are "called out" when they're not intending to repeat one of the trigger points, such as "But China" or whatever. Some folks don't even seem to want to take the time to read the content and understand the intent before jumping all over the person for expressing an opinion. It's like they think that everybody who posts here that doesn't share their opinion has some sort of agenda, when they are actually just trying to participate in a discussion.

I very much dislike this too.

There a are a few members that are incapable of separating issues.
Its an all or nothing mentality.

Its even with asinine things; oh this guy likes pick ups. He's clearly a climate science denying Trump voter. That's all he can be, defined by one characteristic that happens to fit into a box of other characteristics. So I must subscribe him/her to all of them.

Its such an asinine and unproductive way to view the world.

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The fundamental issue with this frame is that India is only emitting less because it is less developed. India, isn't going to stop developing though. And if we don't break their trend, we'll have another China on our hands, before long. Oh and behind India, there's also Africa to worry about. It's rapidly urbanizing and developing too. And we're about to see substantial increases in Africa's emissions. We need to get ahead of these trends. Not wait till they are major challenges.

This is exactly why developing countries wanted financing for renewables. The developed world seems more interested in giving them hypocritical lectures instead.

I usually agree with you on these topics but you’re completely wrong about India. India is one of the only countries that is actually on track to meet it’s Paris climate goals something that Canada is not even close to accomplishing. Modi is a very polarizing figure but his climate plan for 1.2 billion people is being handled in a respectable manner. It’s obviously not perfect as they are still creating more coal plants but compared to other developed countries and major powers no one is doing better then India right now.

Also you fail to mention that they have an inherent advantage of massive population density which makes it absurdly easy to create complete communities in which walkability, cycling, and public transport are the major modes of transportation. My parents houses back in India lived in single-family detached homes, however, they could walk to all of their necessary amenities in large part because of very relaxed zoning regulations.

This article highlights that in Delhi only 15% of people commute via car. That’s compared to 23% walking, 13% bicycle, and 18% public transportation.

http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.or...ort/index.html

My final point is that India also has BY FAR the largest population of vegetarian and vegan eaters which has been ingrained in the culture and religions within the country for centuries. Furthermore since our cattle production is very very low relative to any country in the world because of Hinduism preventing the majority of the population from eating beef emissions from farming will remain lower then other countries for the foreseeable future.

There might be at most a 1% chance India turns into another China.

Edit: I failed to mention the massive investment into High Speed Rail with Mumbai - Ahmedabad expected to be completed in 2026 and a total 7,000 km of routes is expected to be completed by 2050 that will connect all of the major cities to each other.

[ssiguy]

Kind of ridiculous that an Atlantic province can't phase out it's coal while another AC province is teetering on bankruptcy because they built a mega hydro plant that they can't get the electricity to market.

I hope Ottawa comes down hard on NB and gives them no extensions.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

I usually agree with you on these topics but you’re completely wrong about India. India is one of the only countries that is actually on track to meet it’s Paris climate goals something that Canada is not even close to accomplishing. Modi is a very polarizing figure but his climate plan for 1.2 billion people is being handled in a respectable manner. It’s obviously not perfect as they are still creating more coal plants but compared to other developed countries and major powers no one is doing better then India right now.

Also you fail to mention that they have an inherent advantage of massive population density which makes it absurdly easy to create complete communities in which walkability, cycling, and public transport are the major modes of transportation. My parents houses back in India lived in single-family detached homes, however, they could walk to all of their necessary amenities in large part because of very relaxed zoning regulations.

This article highlights that in Delhi only 15% of people commute via car. That’s compared to 23% walking, 13% bicycle, and 18% public transportation.

http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.or...ort/index.html

My final point is that India also has BY FAR the largest population of vegetarian and vegan eaters which has been ingrained in the culture and religions within the country for centuries. Furthermore since our cattle production is very very low relative to any country in the world because of Hinduism preventing the majority of the population from eating beef emissions from farming will remain lower then other countries for the foreseeable future.

There might be at most a 1% chance India turns into another China.

Edit: I failed to mention the massive investment into High Speed Rail with Mumbai - Ahmedabad expected to be completed in 2026 and a total 7,000 km of routes is expected to be completed by 2050 that will connect all of the major cities to each other.

I don't think any of this contradicts what I said. They are less developed than China. That's a fact. China's GDP/capita is 5.5x that of India. And that's a major part of why India's emissions profile is lower. They expect emissions to rise as they develop, which is, of course, allowed for, under the Paris agreement.

Sure, there are geographical and cultural factors that help mitigate emissions growth for them. But none of that means their emissions can't rise rapidly, if economic growth requires it. There's no guarantee that accelerating economic growth won't see them resort to increasing coal consumption or delaying their coal phaseout. Especially, if they don't get access to the financing they need to accelerate their renewables buildout.

[O-tacular]

I think India had a key role in watering down language at COP26 for "phasing out" coal to "phasing down".

[rofina]

Glad someone said this, because it needs to be said out loud by credible people.

All the COP's and all the pledges are just theatre.

Solutions will come from the private market or not at all.

Which is why I'm basing my life around not at all, or rather basing my decisions on best models of what a 3°C warmer world looks like in my lifetime.

• Video Link

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I don't think any of this contradicts what I said. They are less developed than China. That's a fact. China's GDP/capita is 5.5x that of India. And that's a major part of why India's emissions profile is lower. They expect emissions to rise as they develop, which is, of course, allowed for, under the Paris agreement.

Sure, there are geographical and cultural factors that help mitigate emissions growth for them. But none of that means their emissions can't rise rapidly, if economic growth requires it. There's no guarantee that accelerating economic growth won't see them resort to increasing coal consumption or delaying their coal phaseout. Especially, if they don't get access to the financing they need to accelerate their renewables buildout.

Again India is planning to go to 50% renewable energy by 2030 with 500GW. That’s tripling the capacity of renewable within the nation. I’m not sure why GDP growth is this big deal in this era compared to when China was doing it on mostly fossil fuels and didn’t have the ability to get green energy even 10 years ago that India can obtain. Also China does not have the same geographical or cultural factors of reducing emissions that India has. You are also downplaying just how destructive cattle farming and driving are to the environment with that point.

Also, why wouldn’t they get the financing considering they are in fact one of the fastest growing economies in the world and renewable energy is generally a profitable endeavour, especially with how big of a market the country is. There’s obviously no guarantee but let’s not act like India is not pulling well above their weight in respect to most other countries in the world with regards to tackling emissions and climate change.

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Just to add perspective. Here's what it looks like per capita:

Amazing that the two provinces with very little hydro power potential have such high GHG emissions!

Good thing Alberta has like two gigawatts of solar and (unsure) gigawatts of wind generation capacity under construction.

These graphs will change very quickly this decade.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

Again India is planning to go to 50% renewable energy by 2030 with 500GW. That’s tripling the capacity of renewable within the nation. I’m not sure why GDP growth is this big deal in this era compared to when China was doing it on mostly fossil fuels and didn’t have the ability to get green energy even 10 years ago that India can obtain.

What India is doing is impressive and necessary. But again, there's no guarantee that their plans are sufficient or that economic growth won't overcome those plans. If you look at the emissions of China and India and adjust for GDP, India is currently on the same path as China with emissions per person rising with GDP per capita. The intensity maybe lower than China, but the trajectory is the same. And unless that changes drastically, their emissions will grow substantially as their GDP does. To be clear, I am not hoping for them to fail. I am just saying, we can't really bank on them successfully halting emissions growth, at this time.

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

Also China does not have the same geographical or cultural factors of reducing emissions that India has. You are also downplaying just how destructive cattle farming and driving are to the environment with that point.

Power is 48% of China's CO2 emissions. Industrial emissions account for 28%. Agriculture accounts for 2%.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ons-by-sector/

So if you want to argue that cattle farming is a huge differentiator in India, I'd love to see the evidence behind that assertion.

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

Also, why wouldn’t they get the financing considering they are in fact one of the fastest growing economies in the world and renewable energy is generally a profitable endeavour, especially with how big of a market the country is. There’s obviously no guarantee but let’s not act like India is not pulling well above their weight in respect to most other countries in the world with regards to tackling emissions and climate change.

The developed world failed to deliver to the financing agreed in Copenhagen. And that slowed down plans for several developing countries. Including India. There's also other challenges in developing countries. For example, it's not just about developing renewable energy. Their grid infrastructure is usually so poor, they may not have the ability to absorb substantial amounts of intermittent generation.

I am not sure, why you're taking this as judgement on India. It's not. It's a recognition of the challenges they face. And how much the developed world has really failed to help. To India's credit, they have actually achieved a ton on their own. And they are pivoting to renewables a lot faster than most places, including Canada.

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

Amazing that the two provinces with very little hydro power potential have such high GHG emissions!

Good thing Alberta has like two gigawatts of solar and (unsure) gigawatts of wind generation capacity under construction.

These graphs will change very quickly this decade.

Power generation isn't why their emissions are so high relative to other provinces.

AB:


SK: