DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[seventwenty]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

I just looked at your link to the Trulia study and I don't even know where to begin. Apples to Oranges.

Said the person with anecdotal evidence to support the study.

[bcp]

i love the phrase "anecdotal evidence"....usually means "we don't have good data"

[TakeFive]

^^ Well I think you're both right. It's really a matter of context.

(Near) downtown is its own unique market. If you're referencing the greater metro area then I'll lean to seventwenty but even that's a bit simplistic.

It just has become a world of growing income disparity which also distorts many cities.
-------------------------------

For those who never check the transportation page I'll just add that bumping the gas tax by a dime (for example) and increasing road and bridge (transit) spending would be big for the economy going forward. The energy sector really has been a significant part of the growing GDP over the last few years and that will be changing.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by seventwenty

Yeah but at what price point? Right now the price point is close to $400,000. Not exactly affordable if you're a 20 something.

What price point is close to $400,000? The average sales price in Denver city? The average sales price in the metro? For a single family detached? For a 1 bed condo? For Lohi? For Green Valley Ranch? Your observation was about as detailed as your Trulia study.

[EngiNerd]

Originally Posted by Scottk

Really?

The security setup that currently exists seems ideal... I can't even imagine how they could redo the terminal in a way that is more efficient than what they have now.

On busy days the security area already uses up most of the space that they have on both sides

I'm fine with this as long as they don't screw up the efficiency. Like the other comments, I have a hard time picturing how they will achieve this, and still allow the main hall to be open without having to pass through security.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

sorry, double post. maybe the moderator can remove, please

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

It's entirely possible that we get caught in a recession at some point. They never ring a bell in advance. Actually, it's likely to be more of a significant cooling off than a "statistical recession." But for many it will feel like a recession. While we're still the "prettiest girl" we could just get caught in a global downdraft.

Specific to Denver there could be cooling in the energy sector. Need to look out 6,9,12 months which is always tricky. Then there's the growing potential for a demand/supply imbalance with apartments downtown. So far, so good, but that can change. I could see apartment rents dropping by 25-35% (including incentives) easily at some point.

As you've previously said home prices tend to be more sticky but a 10-15% drop in resales wouldn't be hard. Since values are determined by those currently in the market (at any point in time) a change in market psychology is important.

Great points. I already see rents stabilizing and some downward pressure in certain neighborhoods, price points, and housing types.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by DenverPoke

Same here, moving to Northfield Stapleton later this year from Clayton. Boo! Though we have 3/2 now, schools and more space are the issues and Northfield is pretty much all there is if you want to stay under $450-$500k. We will be keeping the Clayton house as a rental if anyone is looking this winter.

Conservatory Green or Willow Park East? I'll be setting up shop in Willow Park East later this spring.

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by EngiNerd

I'm fine with this as long as they don't screw up the efficiency. Like the other comments, I have a hard time picturing how they will achieve this, and still allow the main hall to be open without having to pass through security.

I think this is exactly the point... the great hall will not remain open to those who have not cleared security. Unless I am missing something here...

[DenverPoke]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Conservatory Green or Willow Park East? I'll be setting up shop in Willow Park East later this spring.

Willow Park East as well, neighbor. A Wonderland new build, you?

[Mulligan]

Originally Posted by mr1138

I think this is exactly the point... the great hall will not remain open to those who have not cleared security. Unless I am missing something here...

I thought I read an article last week saying that at least some part(s) of it will.

[Fritzdude]

Originally Posted by mr1138

I think this is exactly the point... the great hall will not remain open to those who have not cleared security. Unless I am missing something here...

That can't be the plan..

Who would spend the 30 minutes waiting in line to get through Security and then just hang around the Great Hall? Once I get past security, I'm headed immediately to my gate - or at least somewhere close to it so that I can access it quickly after a bite somewhere. I assume most people are the same way.

[enjo13]

Originally Posted by Fritzdude

That can't be the plan..

Who would spend the 30 minutes waiting in line to get through Security and then just hang around the Great Hall? Once I get past security, I'm headed immediately to my gate - or at least somewhere close to it so that I can access it quickly after a bite somewhere. I assume most people are the same way.

If there were really good food options? I would. I usually arrive a bit early (I like an airport cocktail).

Although I suspect this isn't FOR people arriving at the airport so much. Instead they're hoping to capture people on longer layovers (pretty common) by providing a really kick-ass place for them to shop, eat, and drink away from frenetic terminals. Which was the point of the main hall I think before 9/11 turned it into one giant security line.

As always, if you build interesting things people will come out to enjoy them.

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by Fritzdude

That can't be the plan..

Who would spend the 30 minutes waiting in line to get through Security and then just hang around the Great Hall? Once I get past security, I'm headed immediately to my gate - or at least somewhere close to it so that I can access it quickly after a bite somewhere. I assume most people are the same way.

I suppose it didn't specifically say so in any of the articles I read, but this was my interpretation of the matter... unless they have some convoluted plan to take passengers straight from the new security checkpoints to the concourse train, somehow bypassing the Great Hall? A 2-story escalator going straight from the top floor down to the train maybe? Just thinking about what I know of the terminal's floor plan, I find it hard to envision any physical way to move security upstairs and still keep the great hall unsecured - for the simple reason that passengers have to move THROUGH the hall just to get to the existing escalators/stairwells to access the trains.

I was assuming that the intention here was to make the Great Hall a "secure" area so that passengers awaiting a transfer can come back to the terminal without going through security again (this would be particularly helpful for international arrivals coming out of Customs with another flight to catch).

I agree with you though that this kind of a plan seems somewhat half-baked, as I too like to get food and a few drinks within a few steps from my gate, and I feel that the great hall is really meant to be for the general public and not just ticketed passengers. I wouldn't be very likely to come all the way to the terminal from my concourse during a transfer either - unless I had to switch concourses anyway and had several hours to wait. There are plenty of other airports that do it this way though... oftentimes you cannot get to many shops or restaurants until after you pass through security.

Edit: On a second read of the Denver Post article it says that "The airport Wednesday issued a request for qualified potential bidders..." and that "Potential bidders also have an additional 399,150 square feet they can use creatively in their proposals, including a 77,000-square-foot area on level 4 of the hotel transit center 'designed to accommodate a future security screening checkpoint of approximately 18 lanes.'" So it could very well be that there is no firm architectural plan in place yet, and logistical details such as escalators to the train platforms would have to be worked out and pitched by each specific bidder.

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Originally Posted by mr1138

I suppose it didn't specifically say so in any of the articles I read, but this was my interpretation of the matter... unless they have some convoluted plan to take passengers straight from the new security checkpoints to the concourse train, somehow bypassing the Great Hall? A 2-story escalator going straight from the top floor down to the train maybe? Just thinking about what I know of the terminal's floor plan, I find it hard to envision any physical way to move security upstairs and still keep the great hall unsecured - for the simple reason that passengers have to move THROUGH the hall just to get to the existing escalators/stairwells to access the trains.

I was assuming that the intention here was to make the Great Hall a "secure" area so that passengers awaiting a transfer can come back to the terminal without going through security again (this would be particularly helpful for international arrivals coming out of Customs with another flight to catch).

I agree with you though that this kind of a plan seems somewhat half-baked, as I too like to get food and a few drinks within a few steps from my gate, and I feel that the great hall is really meant to be for the general public and not just ticketed passengers. I wouldn't be very likely to come all the way to the terminal from my concourse during a transfer either - unless I had to switch concourses anyway and had several hours to wait. There are plenty of other airports that do it this way though... oftentimes you cannot get to many shops or restaurants until after you pass through security.

Edit: On a second read of the Denver Post article it says that "The airport Wednesday issued a request for qualified potential bidders..." and that "Potential bidders also have an additional 399,150 square feet they can use creatively in their proposals, including a 77,000-square-foot area on level 4 of the hotel transit center 'designed to accommodate a future security screening checkpoint of approximately 18 lanes.'" So it could very well be that there is no firm architectural plan in place yet, and logistical details such as escalators to the train platforms would have to be worked out and pitched by each specific bidder.

If you're staying at the Westin, do you have to go through security to go get Panda Express?


Also, when there are cancellations due to weather, the ticket lines can get really long, especially if it coincides with holiday travel. I've witnessed lines that extend all the way out the doors to drop-off.

[The Dirt]

More fellow Stapletonians, eh? We'll have to grab a drink. We can pile into my SUV (after I remove the child seat) and drive across the neighborhood to the nearest bar. Yay, new urbanism!

[PLANSIT]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

More fellow Stapletonians, eh? We'll have to grab a drink. We can pile into my SUV (after I remove the child seat) and drive across the neighborhood to the nearest bar. Yay, new urbanism!

When are you going to draw a nice diagram for 1144 15th?

[seventwenty]

K on that note, let's organize a meetup: https://doodle.com/8gihzdn2zwkqc8p9

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Stonemans_rowJ

If you're staying at the Westin, do you have to go through security to go get Panda Express?

According to Cathy Proctor in the DBJ:

The general public, those who don't have tickets to travel, also would have access to some portion of the renovated Great Hall, according to Day and airport officials.

The idea of using the underutilized Level 6 for security screening sounds logical enough. Not surprising:

shops and restaurants now in the Great Hall generate about 50 percent less per square foot than their retail counterparts on the concourses — on the other side of the security screening systems, according to DIA

The Great Hall is big enough that they could partition it into secured and non-secured areas. With the Westin that would seem to be a good idea.

[CONative]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

More fellow Stapletonians, eh? We'll have to grab a drink. We can pile into my SUV (after I remove the child seat) and drive across the neighborhood to the nearest bar. Yay, new urbanism!

Yeah, because Wash Park or Congress Park was a model for urbanism when all those single family houses were built decades ago too. Yet, they are respected established city neighborhoods. We have to be realistic about city neighborhoods 6-7 miles from the core (like Wash Park and such), AND the fact the development is a ridiculously large 7.5 square miles. I find it interesting the expectations people have on density and "new urbanism" with such a large development. Forest City never promised Belmar in ALL 7.5 square miles, but people seem to think they did. If Stapleton was the much smaller size of Belmar, it would look like Belmar. As I have always said, Stapleton's "urbanism", walkability, and density will take time, and it is actually happening slowly in the established Stapleton areas (as I have said before). The large parcels of vacant land that Forest City could have tried to surrender are still waiting for the mixed-use it was designed for, and some spots have in fact received it (more mixed use and density) years after development around it. Now, Willow Park East will never be some crazy urban center...but these new neighborhoods get lack of respect because they are new. Those houses in the well-respected Congress Park city neighborhood were new at some point too. Stapleton is not Uptown or Cap Hill, and it isn't supposed to be. The idea is something in between urban and the typical idea of surburban. Stapleton is not another Highlands Ranch, and there are many reasons why it's not THAT surburban. It would be just as close to comparing it to Cap Hill as it is to compare it to Highlands Ranch.

BTW, 3rd time Stapleton home buyer here! First Eastbridge, then Central Park North, and now Willow Park East. Over 10 years Baby! Who on here can beat that? You newbies...