[Saint John] Port Development

[NB_ExistsToo]

Originally Posted by DyAm00394

Port Saint John unveils master planning process



https://www.country94.ca/2023/10/25/...nning-process/

"beautifying" the surrounding land, that's likely not in AIM's vocabulary.

[DyAm00394]

There's a new article from AllNewBrunswickNews with the headline "CKPC Positions Saint John As Montreal Backstop", and the desktop headline is "Port Saint John Ready".

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by DyAm00394

There's a new article from AllNewBrunswickNews with the headline "CKPC Positions Saint John As Montreal Backstop", and the desktop headline is "Port Saint John Ready".

I don’t have a subscription. Can anyone explain what they mean as a backstop in this context?

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by cdnguys

I don’t have a subscription. Can anyone explain what they mean as a backstop in this context?

Major strike expected next year.

[Ottawa]

Pictures from today October 28th.

3 cranes on the CAUCEDO EXPRESS at Rodney Pier C and the BAHRI ABHA Ro-Ro at Pier 10

Credit and thanks for pics to X007

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by Ottawa

Pictures from today October 28th.

Credit and thanks for pics to X007

Anyone know what the RoRo is picking up or dropping off? I see it came from Dundalk, MD which does have a car port facility.

[Ottawa]

Originally Posted by cdnguys

Anyone know what the RoRo is picking up or dropping off? I see it came from Dundalk, MD which does have a car port facility.

Enquiring minds would like to know...

[Ottawa]

Originally Posted by DyAm00394

There's a new article from AllNewBrunswickNews with the headline "CKPC Positions Saint John As Montreal Backstop", and the desktop headline is "Port Saint John Ready".

Shippers who want to avoid showing up at Montreal someday just to be turned away should be making plans to permanently move their business to Saint John ASAP. That pre-emptive commitment would allow for a much smoother and less disruptive response to a strike whose goal is to be as disruptive as possible. At least until our current capacity of about 350K is filled. Once that happens, it's just going to take some time to expand further but there will be significant motivation to get there faster.

The port of Montreal is at a crossroads. Older, smaller ship scrapping is a growth industry because of environmental requirements and cost efficiencies of larger ships. Montreal can't handle anything larger than 6K TEU. That is a crippling limitation. The entire container shipping industry worldwide is suffering from an over abundance of older, smaller ships while they continue to order larger, more efficient, alternative fueled ships. Until the industry capitulates and converts to a modern fleet, their over abundance of older, smaller ships is costing them their profitability. One example - COSCO scrapped their first ship in 7 years this past May. It was a ship built in 2005 with a capacity of over 5800 TEU. COSCO have 52 ships currently on order with an AVERAGE size of 15K+ TEU. All this while they are 77% down on profitability. Ship demolitions industry wide are predicted to grow 5X in 2024. Even that is not enough though.

I am not aware of what Montreal port workers are striking for, but I would be surprised if money is not a deciding issue. Whatever the issue, it's terrible timing for them. Montreal is down 13.5% YTD as of September. They are typical of worldwide performance. NY/NJ is down about 21% YTD. 2024 is expected to be another challenging year for the status quo.

2023 YTD has seen profitability for shipping companies worldwide down significant double digits. 2024 is now predicted to go red to the tune of $15Bn for the worldwide container shipping industry.

The port of Saint John is growing in a year that is like an earthquake to the industry. CPKC is bucking the trend of North American railroads and is the ONLY Class I railroad I am aware of that is still growing AND profitable.

CN is down double digits, as well as CSX and Union Pacific. I don't have current information on other class I railroads but I have no reason to expect different results.

[cdnguys]

Great info. Do we know if Halifax is up or down YTD? Also how is our port doing YTD container wise? November is shaping up to be a busy month. 3 ships including an NYK for Nov 4th

[Ottawa]

Originally Posted by cdnguys

Great info. Do we know if Halifax is up or down YTD? Also how is our port doing YTD container wise? November is shaping up to be a busy month. 3 ships including an NYK for Nov 4th

Originally Posted by nwalbert

For copyright reasons I cannot share the link, however the article states 2022 end of July was 68,000 TEU's and this year is just over 80,000 TEU's.

PSJ does not report intermodal numbers on a YTD basis. The most recent numbers available publicly are as of July 31. At that point it was up about 17.5% over 2022. The AIM fire and the hurricane have both occurred since then which were unusual events and had a negative impact on numbers. The NYK REMUS departed early due to AIM and the GENOA EXPRESS never made it into port due to the hurricane/tropical storm.

[FromMaine]

Labor is typically ahead of the game from a growth standpoint and I just noticed that CPKC posted 30 new conductor positions within the CMQ territory-- 20 in Maine and 10 in Quebec. Posting mentions a March 2024 closing date, so likely they are looking to put together a class in April or May of next year. Factor in qualificaiton times but it looks like they are planning on being busy in late 2024 or early 2025.

[Ottawa]

Originally Posted by FromMaine

Labor is typically ahead of the game from a growth standpoint and I just noticed that CPKC posted 30 new conductor positions within the CMQ territory-- 20 in Maine and 10 in Quebec. Posting mentions a March 2024 closing date, so likely they are looking to put together a class in April or May of next year. Factor in qualificaiton times but it looks like they are planning on being busy in late 2024 or early 2025.

CSX started advertising conductor positions based in Waterville and Portland on Sept. 14. Nothing in Keag yet(not surprising). The closing date of both is Nov. 30. They didn't specify quantities at either location. Training will be done in Atlanta sometime after Nov. 30.

Joe Hinrichs (CSX CEO) has stated that Mattawamkeag will be in operation in 2024. He wasn't specific about any date. His words were "we’re going to be able to run much faster speeds once we get everything finished. That will be next year sometime, not that far away". Most of the track between Mattawamkeag and Waterville is 25MPH right now. Maybe they just need to put the finishing touches on that line. Or maybe they want to start at 40MPH?

NBSR is installing 115lb rail in NB and ME and they are converting it to CWR. I don't think they are too far advanced in that but they are doing it. 2024/25 are going to be interesting.

[Ottawa]

An informative April 2023 interview from CNBC Africa with DP World Group CEO & Chairman Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem.

Although this is focused on Africa, there is a lot of information in here that applies world wide and specifically to Saint John.

Topics include but not limited to:
The high value of ports to the regions they are located in
The value of free/foreign trade zones
The value in locating industrial parks close to ports and their intention to incorporate that everywhere
The importance of quick, reliable transportation to/from the port
The relationship between GDP growth and port growth
DP World's strategy for growth including PPP and industry related investment partners

https://youtu.be/h4WcUDaVjFY?si=6UvHoLAoG3k87qJL

[cdnguys]

France Express is on schedule this month which I don’t think visited before. Used to be owned by Hanjin before their bankruptcy. Does anyone know if this is a new customer to port, or chartered / owned by an existing customer?

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Originally Posted by cdnguys

France Express is on schedule this month which I don’t think visited before. Used to be owned by Hanjin before their bankruptcy. Does anyone know if this is a new customer to port, or chartered / owned by an existing customer?

I just looked it up and it is a new ship on the CMA CGM Caribbean line. Bigger than the other ships on the line but not a new customer.

[FromMaine]

Correct a new ship in the CAGEMA service. Not sure if it's what's available or if CMA will start to flip out all their ships on this service to a larger size. This service does hit Kingston which is a major CMA transshipping hub.

[Ottawa]

Originally Posted by FromMaine

Correct a new ship in the CAGEMA service. Not sure if it's what's available or if CMA will start to flip out all their ships on this service to a larger size. This service does hit Kingston which is a major CMA transshipping hub.

CMA CGM ships calling recently or scheduled to call:

SHIP NAME-----------TEU----OWNER----SERVICE
AS PENELOPE--------2572---CMA CGM--CAGEMA
AS SVENJA-----------1713---CMA CGM--CAGEMA
CAPE ALTIUS---------2756---CMA CGM--CAGEMA
CGM SURABAYA-----1577---CMA CGM--CAGEMA
EXPRESS FRANCE---3459---CMA CGM--CAGEMA
M WILMINGTON-----1577---CMA CGM--CAGEMA

They have recently flipped lower capacity ships for the larger AS PENELOPE and CAPE ALTIUS. The M WILMINGTON is scheduled in again after the EXPRESS FRANCE, so I am thinking they might be flipping either the CGM SURABAYA or AS SVENJA. My WAG is on the CGM SURABAYA being flipped. Across five ships, that's an 18% increase in total capacity for the CAGEMA service.

[Ottawa]

The labour unions at US east coast and gulf ports have set a deadline of Sept. 30, 2024 and are standing firm - at least for now. That's a way's off, but if there isn't a contract signed by then, they say they'll walk Oct. 1.

I expect CSX will be fully connected by then so that could cause something between a bump and total mayhem in traffic.

If DPW is going to install another couple of cranes, it might be good to have that done by the end of Sept/24.

If it happens, it's virtually all temporary, but some shippers may decide to keep a more permanent presence if it works well for them.

[Ottawa]

The DUBLIN EXPRESS just coming in this AM is the largest capacity Hapag Lloyd ship to visit PSJ in 6 months. It is part of the MCA service, and will be returning on Dec 28 and in 2024.

Port Saint John's average TEU size has been on a positive trend over time.

2021 started off at ~1.7K TEU. It gradually climbed through 2021 to level off at ~2.5K TEU.

From Q4 2021 until Q2 2023, the average was pretty steady at ~2.5K TEU.

Including the scheduled ships up to Dec. 9, 2023, the average ship capacity will be just over 3K TEU.

Assuming the current trend continues, ship capacity will have increased >75% from Jan/21 to Jan/24.

As smaller ships hit the demolition list, that 3K number is going to increase further. There are a lot of new ships on order. Those ships are needed to return profitability to an industry that is seeking to rebalance the supply /demand ratio that is currently out of whack.

[cdnguys]

Originally Posted by Ottawa

The DUBLIN EXPRESS just coming in this AM is the largest capacity Hapag Lloyd ship to visit PSJ in 6 months. It is part of the MCA service, and will be returning on Dec 28 and in 2024.

Port Saint John's average TEU size has been on a positive trend over time.

2021 started off at ~1.7K TEU. It gradually climbed through 2021 to level off at ~2.5K TEU.

From Q4 2021 until Q2 2023, the average was pretty steady at ~2.5K TEU.

Including the scheduled ships up to Dec. 9, 2023, the average ship capacity will be just over 3K TEU.

Assuming the current trend continues, ship capacity will have increased >75% from Jan/21 to Jan/24.

As smaller ships hit the demolition list, that 3K number is going to increase further. There are a lot of new ships on order. Those ships are needed to return profitability to an industry that is seeking to rebalance the supply /demand ratio that is currently out of whack.

Curious though if bigger ships = more containers loaded/unloaded, or simply bigger ships on that route. In 2022 Halifax had more bigger ships, but TEUs flat YOY