AUSTIN | Project Updates Thread Part II

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by lzppjb

http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/bl...o-surpass.html

You may get your wish for an Asian girlfriend. I wouldn't mind one either.

Originally Posted by The article

Between 2000-2010, about 23 percent of all growth was international – the majority from Mexico but a portion from Asia as well. Many Asians end up in Austin after moving to the U.S. and first living in two or three different locations.

Originally Posted by Hill Country

Does anyone one know what Rainey St. development this is for? Millenium? (It's the 3rd file listed.)

ftp://ftp.ci.austin.tx.us/ATD_AULCC/140320/

The document says the address is 70 Rainey Street. I remember someone saying it would be around 30 floors. It shows a "condo lobby".

[bigdogc]

70 rainey is currently a food trailer park.

I believe about a year ago or so the condo project was haulted due to NIMBY MACC center stating a small piece of land adjacent to 70 rainey, owned by city of Austin, would block the views of their building.

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by bigdogc

70 rainey is currently a food trailer park.

I believe about a year ago or so the condo project was haulted due to NIMBY MACC center stating a small piece of land adjacent to 70 rainey, owned by city of Austin, would block the views of their building.

The meeting with the CoA about the project is for 03/20, so maybe the plans have been revised.

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by Hill Country

Does anyone one know what Rainey St. development this is for? Millenium? (It's the 3rd file listed.)

ftp://ftp.ci.austin.tx.us/ATD_AULCC/140320/

By the way, while you were away from the forum East7thStreet posted these in this thread:
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/show...ghlight=rainey

It was explained that this was a previous proposal for that address called "The Drake". It looks to be about 29 to 30 floors.

[migol24]

I'm sure it will slow down though.

Personally, I don't want Austin to get too big. I'd rather it just grow a more dense population. 3.5 million for a metro is a good size. If Austin within it's proper city limits grows 1.5 million, that would be more than enough for a big city for me. Of course, this is within a scope of another 20 years.

I'm betting (without any formal knowledge or training of growing trends) that San Antonio and Austin will peak at about the same in population and then slow down in growth. In my life time around 2035 to 2040, I'm sure the Austin/San Antonio region will have nearly 8 million people. And that's a lot... more than the entire current Bay Area population.

I really do hope we get our act together with public transportation by then though.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by migol24

I'm betting (without any formal knowledge or training of growing trends) that San Antonio and Austin will peak at about the same in population and then slow down in growth.

I don't see why that would be the case. I think every factor is currently indicating that Austin would be larger.

1. Overall we've been growing faster for a long time. It's just that San Antonio had a 150-year head start on us.
2. Austin's traditional strengths point to further growth (UT, technology, etc.) while San Antonio may see slowdown here (further military contraction).
3. I think Austin has a greater chance for geographical growth of its metro area (possible additions of Milam and Burnet counties), while all the counties that surround Bexar are already included in the San Antonio metro.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Novacek

I don't see why that would be the case. I think every factor is currently indicating that Austin would be larger.

1. Overall we've been growing faster for a long time. It's just that San Antonio had a 150-year head start on us.
2. Austin's traditional strengths point to further growth (UT, technology, etc.) while San Antonio may see slowdown here (further military contraction).
3. I think Austin has a greater chance for geographical growth of its metro area (possible additions of Milam and Burnet counties), while all the counties that surround Bexar are already included in the San Antonio metro.

Milam will never be added and even if it is, it's a very small county that has negative population growth. I'd prefer that it not add it's horrible economic indicators to the metro area calculations.

I do see Burnet (Marble Falls, Burnet, Granite Shoals) and Llano Counties (Kingsland, Horseshoe Bay, not so much Llano itself, but that's a small share of the county going forward) being added long-term as the highland lakes communities grow and further integrate with our area. Blanco is a possibility as well, but we've got some heavy competition with San Antonio for that county. The northern areas are definitely in our orbit (Johnson City), but the southern areas are in San Antonio's (Blanco). San Antonio could also easily add Kerrville sometime within the next decade. Even if we each add the areas that I just outlined (with Blanco going to San Antonio, as the commuter stats iirc are tilted in their favor), that's a wash for Austin.

So, isn't as clear cut and dry as you think it might be.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

...Blanco is a possibility as well, but we've got some heavy competition with San Antonio for that county....

Blanco is already a member of CAPGOG, correct?

[BevoLJ]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

Blanco is already a member of CAPGOG, correct?

http://www.capcog.org/documents/info...seMap24x36.pdf

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Milam will never be added and even if it is, it's a very small county that has negative population growth.

It's about 25K (bigger than Llano). So true, not huge, but that's about 5% of the delta between Austin/San Antonio. It could cut a year off the estimate.
It's also only (slightly)negative in the post-census estimates(again, as was Llano). Last two censuses its been slowly growing. Certainly possible that picks up once Hutto/Taylor start taking off.

Originally Posted by wwmiv

San Antonio could also easily add Kerrville sometime within the next decade.

Possible, but I'd be a bit surprised by within the decade. Kerrville is a long way from San Antonio proper, with not a lot in-between. It'd be a pretty long commute.

Originally Posted by wwmiv

So, isn't as clear cut and dry as you think it might be.

I don't think it's cut and dry, but to a certain extent it's a function of distance (which affects commuting patterns). Will people commute from Kerrville to San Antonio, sure. Especially as San Antonio keeps growing. But it's more likely that people start commuting into Austin from areas currently outside the metro definition that are closer than that, at least in the near term. I think Austin is also helped out by having more and faster growing suburbs, especially on it's north.

[lzppjb]

If Hutto gets the battery plant, Milam County could see a population explosion next door.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Novacek

It's about 25K (bigger than Llano). So true, not huge, but that's about 5% of the delta between Austin/San Antonio. It could cut a year off the estimate.
It's also only (slightly)negative in the post-census estimates(again, as was Llano). Last two censuses its been slowly growing. Certainly possible that picks up once Hutto/Taylor start taking off.

Hutto and Taylor are in Williamson, not Milam. Hutto is about 30 minutes away from Milam County. There's no way at all Milam will ever be part of our metro.

Originally Posted by Novacek

Possible, but I'd be a bit surprised by within the decade. Kerrville is a long way from San Antonio proper, with not a lot in-between. It'd be a pretty long commute.

Kerrville is only 45 minutes away from San Antonio, whereas Milam is much further away from Austin. Furthermore, San Antonio is much more multipolar than Austin having multiple large business districts, one of which is at 10/1604 substantially closer to Kerrville (which already has decent ties with the S.A. area).

Originally Posted by Novacek

I don't think it's cut and dry, but to a certain extent it's a function of distance (which affects commuting patterns). Will people commute from Kerrville to San Antonio, sure. Especially as San Antonio keeps growing. But it's more likely that people start commuting into Austin from areas currently outside the metro definition that are closer than that, at least in the near term. I think Austin is also helped out by having more and faster growing suburbs, especially on it's north.

You contradict yourself here and essentially support what I said. Kerrville is closer to S.A. than Milam County is to Austin, thus Kerrville being included in S.A. is a much easier proposition to support than Milam being included in Austin.

[lzppjb]

Small office project at 916 Congress Ave: http://austintowers.net/new-office-s...ngress-avenue/

Permit: https://www.austintexas.gov/devrevie...erRSN=11090634

[LoneStarMike]

^^^ Here's a link to the entire 26-page presentation made to the City of Austin Historic Landmark Commission.

[BevoLJ]

Originally Posted by lzppjb

Small office project at 916 Congress Ave:

Love it!

[Jdawgboy]

Originally Posted by lzppjb

Small office project at 916 Congress Ave: http://austintowers.net/new-office-s...ngress-avenue/

Permit: https://www.austintexas.gov/devrevie...erRSN=11090634

That's going to look nice though I wish it could block the view of that hideous white building with the odd depressions where windows should be. I think its the ugliest building in DT. Does anyone know what its purpose is and why in the world it was built looking so unappealing?

[Jdawgboy]

I'm gonna go ahead and chime in. It is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when the Austin Metropolitan area surpasses San Antonio's. Don't forget we're talking about a 5 county Metro area as opposed to an 8 county metro and there really is not a whole lot of gap between the two these days.

I have a hard time thinking Blanco will ever become part of San Antonio's metro. The main population center which is Johnson City definitely identifies with Austin. On top of that, Blanco County has a border with Travis County.

A lot of people who live in Marble Falls work in Austin and while it remains to be seen whether or not Burnet is added to our metro, there will continue to be an increase of commuters.

As for Milam County, theres no doubt it will be influenced by the growth of Williamson, a county which is expected to reach 1 million people. You can already see the growth along the 79 corridor. I take that way when I go visit my sister in Shreveport La. There's always road construction along 79. It's larger and wider now and there's definitely a higher amount of traffic on it than there was 10 years ago. 79 has become the main route into the Austin area from NE Texas. I wouldn't even be surprised if they made it into an interstate in the future.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

I'm gonna go ahead and chime in. It is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when the Austin Metropolitan area surpasses San Antonio's. Don't forget we're talking about a 5 county Metro area as opposed to an 8 county metro and there really is not a whole lot of gap between the two these days.

I do agree that Austin will outgrow San Antonio, whether through county additions or pure growth.

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

I have a hard time thinking Blanco will ever become part of San Antonio's metro. The main population center which is Johnson City definitely identifies with Austin. On top of that, Blanco County has a border with Travis County.

Currently, there are more commuters from Blanco into Bexar than from Blanco into Travis, which was the basis for my assertion. Also, the city of Blanco itself is larger than Johnson City, and has more potential for growth going forward. Furthermore, the Spring Branch area (which extends into Blanco) is a growing suburb of San Antonio). For me, this is a very hard county to pin down. It could go either way, like I said earlier.

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

A lot of people who live in Marble Falls work in Austin and while it remains to be seen whether or not Burnet is added to our metro, there will continue to be an increase of commuters.

Agreed fully, but I go further to argue that Llano will be added eventually as well because most of that county's population is part of the Marble Falls area.

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

As for Milam County, theres no doubt it will be influenced by the growth of Williamson, a county which is expected to reach 1 million people. You can already see the growth along the 79 corridor. I take that way when I go visit my sister in Shreveport La. There's always road construction along 79. It's larger and wider now and there's definitely a higher amount of traffic on it than there was 10 years ago. 79 has become the main route into the Austin area from NE Texas. I wouldn't even be surprised if they made it into an interstate in the future.

This is ridiculous... There are no plans to turn this into an interstate, a planning process which typically takes 20+ years. If it were going to happen, we'd already be hearing about it. There's more traffic on it now because Austin is larger and is more connected to the outside world, not because there are more commuters from Milam County (a county, btw, which is shrinking). When there is actual population growth in that county and we see actual increases in the number of people who commute into Travis County (note that is has to be Travis County, not Williamson, because of the way that the census bureau defines our metropolitan area) I might reconsider, but there is no indication that that will happen.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

...Currently, there are more commuters from Blanco into Bexar than from Blanco into Travis, which was the basis for my assertion.

Your assertion is based on incorrect data. Blanco county itself did a study in May 2013 and found that 3% of the counties citizens commute to Bexar for work; 9% to Travis; and 61% stayed within the boundaries of Blanco County.

Let's put an end to this bickering and move on to another subject. This is becoming annoying.

Should you and Novacek elect to continue this argument, please do so via PM.

Thank you!

[BevoLJ]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Currently, there are more commuters from Blanco into Bexar than from Blanco into Travis, which was the basis for my assertion. Also, the city of Blanco itself is larger than Johnson City, and has more potential for growth going forward. Furthermore, the Spring Branch area (which extends into Blanco) is a growing suburb of San Antonio). For me, this is a very hard county to pin down. It could go either way, like I said earlier.

Wondering if you have a source for the commuting? Only thing I found said there was more commuting into Travis than Bexar (16% to 11%) (pages 13 & 14)