Canada's 4th city

[Doady]

Mississauga is mostly retirees living in four bedroom houses these days. There's a reason the population declined from 2016 to 2021. Even the "non-English" Canadians are moving away from there to Montreal.

Oh, btw, if you want to understand why there is a "housing crisis" in Canada, just look at the continuing population decline in Mississauga. The "4th city" will be the one that builds a city for young transit users instead of elderly SUV drivers.

[bikegypsy]

Originally Posted by Greetingsfromcanada

O&G companies have been, and continue, to slash unnecessary spending and jobs. The oil collapse already happened. Fracking changed the long term outlook a decade ago. Barring a collapse to <$30 USD oil, the oil sands companies are lean profit producing machine. Edmonton is far more exposed to direct job lose via automation and production slow down in decades ahead.


Calgary is growing faster than Ottawa because it doesn't have a greenbelt. Housing is more flexible cost wise and will fall back into the normal realm as immigration slows down from 2021-2023 peak. Calgary is emerging the key logistics hub for western Canada in a land strapped BC. It has factors going for it today that will give it scale that Ottawa won't be able to replicate in the future

The greenbelt is irrelevant, just like the Ottawa River is irrelevant to metro population. It's basically just a park that locals drive through. It was an idea by the French urban planner Jacques Gréber in the 40s, before North Americans developed a frenzied addiction for cars and single family homes, and was meant to create density, not limit population growth. Time and trends proved it to be ineffective for its intended purpose. Even Canada's most European city, Montreal, is an urban sprawl car cathedral superpower. BTW, we're talking about CMAs.

[goodgrowth]

Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper

A place like Toronto is inventing new taxes to keep property tax increases in the single digits. There's no cushion to slash development charges. Similar situation with sales tax at higher levels

Intensification and higher densities require higher investment. If the choice is for Canada to continue to save and educate the world than we need to cut down forests and drain swamps allowing new masterplanned cities to be built.

We need stop funneling cash into housing built at $500 a square foot and invest it in increasing manufacturing output to lower costs. We also need to address the driving forces that have commoditizes housing pushing values up far above inflation. Upzoning as a solution for affordability is nonsense. Allowable densities factor into the properties value across Canada. In the least affordable places, it offsets any profit margins for small scale developers.

Toronto neighbourhoods needs change as young couples evolve to married with children to seniors in their twilight and death . The cycle repeats. The neighbourhoods were design around a certain population. The necessary housing to support the massive growth will throw that design out of whack and ultimately lower standard of living and quality of life.

The neighbourhoods were not designed for work from home either. The traffic is insanity the last time I was in my old Toronto nabe. The powerful pro bike anti-car lobby that doesn't delineate transit buses didn't help either but i digress. Torontonians were never the warmest folk but, they are downright mean now.

The idea that Toronto's approach to density and intensification is the only way and therefore we've tried everything and it's a failure is narrow in thinking.

[Doady]

Toronto will be fine once the Finch, Eglinton, and Hurontario LRTs open within the next year. First new full-length rail transit lines since the Bloor-Danforth subway in 1966. It will be a massive increase in the transportation network this year, which of course is needed before building new housing. Bike lanes also increase capacity, which the more conservative 905 has also been doing a lot of, even without any "pro bike anti car lobby."

[ssiguy]

Interesting thing about Calgary is that despite it's population explosion, they aren't building a whole lot of highrises and certainly not compared to Ottawa.

The vast majority of the growth is happening in the city itself and surprisingly little in it's outer commuter cities is Air/Ok/Coch/Chest. Calgary seems to be putting less emphasis on high rises and more on low-mid rises of roughly 5 to 12 stories. In some ways I think it's healthier and creates a more intimate social environment than endless glass boxes.

[Chinook Arch]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Calgary is more diversified than I think most here believe. Yes, O&G is a big player in Calgary but less so gov't in Ottawa which is been on a hiring spree in the last 8 years while Calgary has downsized it's O&G sector and broadened it's economic base.

That is correct, Calgary’s economy is more diverse than most people think. There was a lot of discussion on Skyrisecities about it with lots of numbers analyzed and bottom line is about 7% of Calgarys workforce works directly and indirectly for the O&G industry. It’s dropped from 10% to 7% since 2010.
Oil and gas is still a large part of the local economy of course, but it’s not the powerhouse it used to be. For example, in this past year, there have been some huge layoffs in Calgary in oil and gas. Basically, all the large producers have been laying off big numbers this past year with Suncor snd TC energy laying off over 1000 people locally and it was barely noticed.


This isn’t to say that if oil and gas suddenly stopped Calgary and Alberta wouldn’t take a hit, only that as time goes on it’s becoming less of a factor. Part of it is because the economy is growing through other avenues Fintech and distribution have been booming), and at the same time oil and gas has been downsizing local head office jobs.

Right now, Calgary is experiencing probably the best possible scenario. The oil industry has been slowing down and cutting jobs, and it’s been a slow gradual decline. This has been allowing the economy to stay solid while other industries make up the gap and more.
One of the benefits of Calgary being the head office centre for the oil industry is large skilled labour pool. A lot of those oil and gas office jobs can be transferred into other industries, and that’s what we’ve been seeing.

[Chinook Arch]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Interesting thing about Calgary is that despite it's population explosion, they aren't building a whole lot of highrises and certainly not compared to Ottawa.

The vast majority of the growth is happening in the city itself and surprisingly little in it's outer commuter cities is Air/Ok/Coch/Chest. Calgary seems to be putting less emphasis on high rises and more on low-mid rises of roughly 5 to 12 stories. In some ways I think it's healthier and creates a more intimate social environment than endless glass boxes.

That’s very true. Despite Calgary having massive housing start numbers for the past two years, we aren’t seeing high-rise apartment buildings going up. There are hundreds of six story buildings going up everywhere but high-rise building construction has fallen off a fair bit.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by rdaner

The stats highlight a really interesting trend: the complete flip of housing type dominance from sfh to multi-unit over the last 10 years to the point that there are 5 times the number of multi-units vs. Singles! This will begin to fundamentally change Canadian cities for the better.

It could be a great trend if we were actually building multi-family in diverse forms with unit types to meet a diversity of needs (ie. more family-sized apartments); but instead we're mostly just building sub-500 sqft 0-1 bedroom units in tower formats.

In the long term, this just means more polarized cities: an increasingly wealthy, increasingly small minority of families cling on to ever-rarer, ever-more-expensive SFH; while the rest are either forced to raise families in small condo units, flee the city in search of affordable family-sized housing, or forgo child-rearing altogether. Dense, apartment-oriented cities are a great thing; but somewhere along the way we've forgotten that those still need to be built for a variety of different people and lifestyles.

[theman23]

The proliferation of shoebox sized condos has been mostly of benefit to people owning SFHs.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by theman23

The proliferation of shoebox sized condos has been mostly of benefit to people owning SFHs.

This is very true and this scenario has also effected our birth rates. Trudeau's door wide open immigration policy to ensure {supposedly} a lower risk of an aging population compared to other Western countries, has perversely sent our birth rate to one of the lowest on the planet.

Canada has the lowest birth rate in the English & French speaking world as well as other nations like Germany and, yes, even Japan. Their rate has upticked slightly over the last few years and is sitting at 1.34 and ours {as of 2022} was at 1.33 and dropping fast.

It's absolutely no surprise that BC has the lowest birth rate in the country and Quebec one of the highest. In Quebec, with it's vastly cheaper housing raising a family is still an option while in BC it's not. Victoria has the lowest birth rate which is understandable due to it's huge retiree population but Vancouver is at #2 where the retiree population is not a factor. Vancouver's birth rate is now down to 1.09 as of 2022.........lower than Italy's.

For the younger people in Vancouver buying even the shoe box now requires both parents to be working full-time at a very good salary and that's for a one bedroom which leaves, quite literally, no room for even one child.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Chinook Arch

That’s very true. Despite Calgary having massive housing start numbers for the past two years, we aren’t seeing high-rise apartment buildings going up. There are hundreds of six story buildings going up everywhere but high-rise building construction has fallen off a fair bit.

I'm not sure why highrise tower builds are down in Calgary, especially in a time of record housing starts.
Lots of multi-family, 6 storey builds, but also a huge amount of row homes and duplexes. On a per capita basis Calgary is the king of rowhomes and semi detached even in raw numbers is #2 for rowhomes.

Q1 2024 Housing starts

2023 Housing starts

[WhipperSnapper]

Per capita comparisons between cities are silly. It's like comparing the municipality of Vancouver to the municipality of Toronto

It's only to Calgary's benefit to build fast and cheap vs tall and expensive.

[Chinook Arch]

I like Calgary's diversity in new housing starts. All groups are strongly represented, and not just one style of housing being built. In the apartment style about half are high rises, and the other half are low rises.

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Interesting thing about Calgary is that despite it's population explosion, they aren't building a whole lot of highrises and certainly not compared to Ottawa.

The vast majority of the growth is happening in the city itself and surprisingly little in it's outer commuter cities is Air/Ok/Coch/Chest. Calgary seems to be putting less emphasis on high rises and more on low-mid rises of roughly 5 to 12 stories. In some ways I think it's healthier and creates a more intimate social environment than endless glass boxes.

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

I'm not sure why highrise tower builds are down in Calgary, especially in a time of record housing starts.
Lots of multi-family, 6 storey builds, but also a huge amount of row homes and duplexes. On a per capita basis Calgary is the king of rowhomes and semi detached even in raw numbers is #2 for rowhomes.

Q1 2024 Housing starts

2023 Housing starts

[Chinook Arch]

Calgary is the primary distribution centre for Western Canada. It took over that role sometime in the past decade or so.
For example here's a comment from CN "Calgary is the primary center for distribution in Western Canada, said CN" "By utilizing the inland transload model, CN says steamship lines “benefit from fully balancing their containers, while assisting beneficial cargo owners with minimal congestion and eliminating costly West Coast labor and trucking to /from the ports.” According to the Class I, the model will create reliable and future capacity to grow."

Originally Posted by jc_yyc_ca

The topic of who's the logistic hub of Western Canada is a moniker thrown around a fair bit. Calgary gets mentioned, but of course, it may also depend on how things are defined. I don't think it's a stretch to say Calgary's a logistics hub. How much of this is accurate or skewed to make their point, I don't know. How it ranks among other cities, hard to say exactly as I'm sure there are lots of variables, but these are some of the things that would make it a logistics hub.

Some people make the claim that Calgary is western Canada's logistic hub, or the largest logistic hub between Toronto and Vancouver.

This guy calls Calgary, Western Canada's undisputed logistic hub.
https://www.inboundlogistics.com/art...tribution-hub/


These guys (City of Calgary pumping themselves) claim Calgary is Canada's second largest inland Hub after Toronto.
https://www.calgaryeconomicdevelopme...and-logistics-
hub/#:~:text=Calgary%20is%20a%20key%20transportation,by%20air%2C%20rail%20and%20ground.


Couldn't find a lot of actual stats, except that Calgary does 75% of Alberta air cargo so it safe to say Calgary is at least in the conversation.

[rbt]

Originally Posted by Chinook Arch

I like Calgary's diversity in new housing starts. All groups are strongly represented, and not just one style of housing being built. In the apartment style about half are high rises, and the other half are low rises.

Agreed. These aren't net numbers either. Toronto gets interesting when you realize nearly every SFH housing start is either a major interior renovation (90%+ gut and refinish is a housing start) or was preceded by a demolition. Actual SFH stock in Toronto likely decreased during 2023.

Housing starts tells you how well the housing construction industry is doing, it's not direct about describing housing quantity changes. Japan always has a massive number of housing starts, but they also tend to demolish SFHs over 30 years in age.

[Vercingetorix]

Agreed. Calgary has been diversifying, slowly but surely. The most recent downturn from 2015 to 2019 was a harsh one, but it was probably the best thing that could’ve happened to Calgary. Other businesses have risen to fill up the gap, re-employing skilled labour who were previously laid off from oil and gas. The last few years I’ve seen probably the biggest push for diversification ever.

Here are some numbers.
Employees in Oil and Gas directly or indirectly
2001. 67,455 of 653,455 (10.3%)
2021. 60,450 of 825,635 (7.3%)

Where it’s at today might even be less. The labour force has increased by over 150,000 but oil and gas companies have not been hiring.
April 2024 ?,? of 977,300

We can see it hasn’t dropped dramatically, but it has dropped a fair bit, and without having the numbers handy, I would say most, if not all of that drop is post 2015 onwards as tens of thousands were laid off during that seven year downturn.
The fact that Calgary oil and gas industry went through its worst downturn in decades, and Calgary still grew by healthy numbers, tells the story that diversification is happening. Still got a ways to go, and there are still people in the city who don’t seem to realize that this is the way the future, but most people seem to have accepted it and that’s the direction things are going.

There are other jobs that support both oil and gas and non-oil and gas, and they aren’t in those numbers, for example, a catering company that caters to anybody. There isn’t a good way to find those numbers, but we can see the trend of diversification is coming on strong.

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Calgary is more diversified than I think most here believe. Yes, O&G is a big player in Calgary but less so gov't in Ottawa which is been on a hiring spree in the last 8 years while Calgary has downsized it's O&G sector and broadened it's economic base.

Alberta's solid financial standing, low taxes, high wages, relatively affordable lifestyle, and, in Calgary's case, very high quality of life and access to the Rockies ensures Calgary's long-term growth.

Alberta is often associated {sometimes unfairly} to Texas and Texas is also a state that got it's economic foundation from oil yet it is the fastest growing state in the US for much the same reason Alberta is in Canada..............it offers a future for young people that California and BC no longer do.

Calgary will be the long-term beneficiary of this reality as, except in the arts, Calgary has Edmonton beat in nearly metric.

[Greetingsfromcanada]

Originally Posted by sgera

You forgot to include Gatineau in your stats - CMA = Ottawa + Gatineau

I didn't include the general Metropolitan areas of either. I severly doubt including Gatineau will close that housing gap significantly, especially if I factor in Calgary's regional growth in Airdire, Canmore, Okotoks and Chestermere

[Greetingsfromcanada]

Originally Posted by lio45

“Calgary is the largest logistic hub between Toronto and Vancouver” is kinda meaningless.

Winnipeg is the largest logistic hub between Calgary/Edmonton and Toronto.
Halifax is the largest logistic hub east of Quebec City.
Ottawa is the largest logistic hub between Montreal and Toronto.
Thunder Bay is the largest logistic hub between Winnipeg and Eastern Ontario.
Okotoks is the largest logistic hub between Calgary and High River.

Except Southern BC is land scarce and cannot accommodate the rising demand for space with it's agricultural land reserves in the lower mainland, island and okanagan. This is just not true anywhere else in Canada. There's a special relationship with BC and Alberta in logistics, and it will continue to grow. Port of Prince Rupert is the 3rd largest in Canada, and could potentially be the 2nd largest one day. It serves the Praires and American Interior. It aids logistics competitiveness in Alberta, especially Edmonton.


Alberta also has a large and rapidly growing population. It has internal demand for goods, and each consumer has more space and more disposable income to buy physical goods. This can't be said for Thunder Bay.


Edit: To put this into perspective, the Port of Prince Rupert through Edmonton is the most cost and time effective rail route on the Pacific Coast of North America. Prince Rupert is also more automated, probably has lower fees and is physically closer to Asia than other ports. There's pictures and diagrams in the link below. Alberta and BC are just playing a different logistics game than the rest of Canada.

https://edmonton.skyrisecities.com/f...-rupert.33039/