Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Build Enough Homes Where People Actually Need Them

[someone123]

The tent debate in Halifax has reached the farce stage: https://globalnews.ca/news/10108023/...arade-to-leave

They debated whether or not to ban tents on the central square in the city but ended up allowing 8 tents. Not sure how they decide which of the tents get to stay. I also wonder how it is the city doesn't have resources to put up say 8 military tents with stoves and washroom facilities in a parking lot somewhere and then say no on the Grand Parade while also giving people somewhat more reasonable housing.

The Globe and Mail covered the Remembrance Day thing with the headline "Housing crisis reshapes historic Remembrance Day ceremony in Halifax". Did they run a story like "COVID-19 shuts down trucker bank accounts"? Or maybe "Hamas attack demolishes massive numbers of buildings in Gaza".

[Coldrsx]

Mayor marks National Housing Day
November 22, 2023

Mayor Amarjeet Sohi was joined by Minister Jason Nixon, Alberta Seniors, Community and Social Services at City Hall this afternoon to mark National Housing Day.

“On National Housing Day, I want to recognize the work of the affordable housing and houseless-serving sector in Edmonton. The individuals and organizations that provide support to Edmontonians in need save and change lives every single day. Their dedication to their neighbours and community embodies the spirit of our city.

Edmonton is growing and so is our need for housing. Right now, 1 in 8 households— owners and renters, young and old—are paying more than they can afford in housing costs, or live in crowded or unsafe conditions, and can’t afford to move. The most effective way for cities to reduce poverty is to increase the supply of affordable and supportive housing. Housing is critical social infrastructure.

The City is committed to working with our partners in the sector and at all levels of government to create more affordable and supportive housing across Edmonton. Over the next four years, our affordable housing plan will surpass the achievements of its first four years. Since 2019, the City has invested $150 million to help create 3,083 units of affordable housing, including 680 units of supportive housing.

A place to call home is a beautiful thing. Affordable housing makes home possible. I ask all Edmontonians to welcome homes into their communities as we work together to create a safe, inclusive, and affordable city for all.”


For more information:
edmonton.ca/WelcomeHomes

Media contact:
Nicole Thomas
Senior Communications Advisor
Community Services
780-220-3328

[Arrdeeharharharbour]

Originally Posted by someone123

The tent debate in Halifax has reached the farce stage: https://globalnews.ca/news/10108023/...arade-to-leave

They debated whether or not to ban tents on the central square in the city but ended up allowing 8 tents. Not sure how they decide which of the tents get to stay. I also wonder how it is the city doesn't have resources to put up say 8 military tents with stoves and washroom facilities in a parking lot somewhere and then say no on the Grand Parade while also giving people somewhat more reasonable housing.

The Globe and Mail covered the Remembrance Day thing with the headline "Housing crisis reshapes historic Remembrance Day ceremony in Halifax". Did they run a story like "COVID-19 shuts down trucker bank accounts"? Or maybe "Hamas attack demolishes massive numbers of buildings in Gaza".

I imagine four or five folks earning $100k+ annual salaries got together for a few hours today and figured out where to pile the parade grounds snow this winter so that the 8 tents could remain. Two days ago news reports were that all tenters were asked to move due to safety concerns ie. winter snowplowing operations. Last night interviewed tent occupants indicated that they would not move in spite of being offered options. It seems a tricky situation unlike the expropriation of a working class home. I dare say that it's a fact that if these parade grounds dwelling folks were forced to move that they would end up in better circumstances than they currently tolerate.

[giallo]

About Here with a timely video

• Video Link

[casper]

Lets see how this pans out. TD is predicting a 10% decline in housing prices next year.

https://globalnews.ca/news/10110607/...rice-forecast/

So basically housing in Canada would be around 15% higher than pre-pandemic. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation. If you adjust for inflation, it looks like housing is stabilizing or even in decline.

We should start to expect to see calls for the bank to lower interest rates now that inflation is under control.

Interesting times.

[Harrison]

Originally Posted by casper

Lets see how this pans out. TD is predicting a 10% decline in housing prices next year.

https://globalnews.ca/news/10110607/...rice-forecast/

So basically housing in Canada would be around 15% higher than pre-pandemic. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation. If you adjust for inflation, it looks like housing is stabilizing or even in decline.

We should start to expect to see calls for the bank to lower interest rates now that inflation is under control.

Interesting times.

Could see this drop in overheated markets like the Lower Mainland, GTA and Halifax, but I bet prices in the cheaper places like the Prairies and Quebec (outside of Montreal) will remain stable or even continue climbing.

[MonkeyRonin]

One-third of Metro Vancouver renters could be impacted by province’s transit development plans: research

B.C.’s transit-oriented development legislation aims to deliver 100K new housing units over the next 10 years

By Claire Wilson | November 22, 2023, 10:00am

As B.C. fleshes out the details of its transit-oriented development (TOD) legislation, research is showing exactly who will be impacted most by the provincial government’s new housing initiative.

Roughly one in three Metro Vancouver renters live in a TOD area, according to research from Simon Fraser University (SFU) City Program director Andy Yan, citing 2021 census data.

TOD areas represent land that is within 800 metres of a rapid transit station like a SkyTrain station, or 400 metres from a bus exchange.

Half the individuals who live in these areas are renters, while 21 per cent of households in TOD areas live in what is described as core housing need. Core housing need is colloquially thought of as when people have to use at least 30 per cent of their income to cover rent.

“Generally, renters do use transit more than homeowners. It's not any accident that there is this high proportion of renters near transit, because the region and municipalities have had plans in place for decades on linking up the town centres,” said Christina DeMarco, an urban planning instructor at SFU who spoke to Glacier Media about the data but did not participate in the research.

While living near transit can be beneficial for rental and low-income households, transit-oriented development does not always equal affordable living, she said.

“They just made a blanket policy on condos and rental,” said DeMarco. “You'll lose the existing affordable rental, and it will be replaced by condos, which are not affordable.”

Read more: https://biv.com/article/2023/11/one-...bus%20exchange.



It's a cruel irony that for as much as we need more housing (and areas near rapid transit are the obvious place for more of it), the very people who are the most vulnerable to housing precarity are also the ones who are most likely to be displaced for new development.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by casper

Lets see how this pans out. TD is predicting a 10% decline in housing prices next year.

https://globalnews.ca/news/10110607/...rice-forecast/

So basically housing in Canada would be around 15% higher than pre-pandemic. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation. If you adjust for inflation, it looks like housing is stabilizing or even in decline.

We should start to expect to see calls for the bank to lower interest rates now that inflation is under control.

Interesting times.

Have incomes risen by 15% since pre-pandemic? The only data I could find seems to suggest that they've only risen by 4.7% (average household income of $75,452 in 2023 vs. $73,000 in 2020). Given higher interest rates, actual mortgage payments will still be significantly higher as well - and no, we're still a ways away from meeting the BoC's 2% inflation target. Interest rates may drop slightly, but they won't be going back to 2020 levels any time soon.

You're also ignoring the rental side of the market, which continues to rise and is significantly more expensive (and with much lower vacancy) than it was in the past; so will also not be as effective as a release valve for high real estate costs as it was pre-pandemic.

In other words, housing in Canada will continue to be unaffordable.

[someone123]

The real sacred cows are the wealthy low-density areas that generally aren't near transit, like Point Grey. I wonder if this change will cause people to lobby even more heavily against transit for some of those area. It is still a win for the low density Vancouver areas with rapid transit stops, like Commercial/Renfrew/Rupert.

Vancouver could use some new rapid transit corridors running through low-density areas that could be more heavily upzoned, like Hastings. These could also connect different parts of the metro and be used to cover different parts of the urban core (like the West End) better. The West End will be getting rapid transit after some parts of Langley out beyond the golf, err, agricultural land reserve.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by someone123

The real sacred cows are the wealthy low-density areas that generally aren't near transit, like Point Grey. I wonder if this change will cause people to lobby even more heavily against transit for some of those area. It is still a win for the low density Vancouver areas with rapid transit stops, like Commercial/Renfrew/Rupert.

Commercial-Broadway is one of those areas that has a lot of affordable rentals though, even if not super dense. Some intensification would no doubt be a positive here, but it's still going to be the homeowners who win big after selling their properties to developers, and the renters who suffer.

Another consideration is industrial land use. Because the system initially used existing rail corridors (the tradeoff being that they got a lot of mileage for cheap; but missed some of the denser & more active commercial centres), there's quite a bit of industrial land along the Skytrain that's targeted for development. It's not really the most efficient land use for rapid transit, but these are also valuable lands for business and employment. Ideally, the areas around the stations would be developed into high-density TODs and industry would move further out; but in practice that's not really happening. Net-net, do we benefit more from new development or from the industrial economic activity?

Originally Posted by someone123

Vancouver could use some new rapid transit corridors running through low-density areas that could be more heavily upzoned, like Hastings. These could also connect different parts of the metro and be used to cover different parts of the urban core (like the West End) better. The West End will be getting rapid transit after some parts of Langley out beyond the golf, err, agricultural land reserve.

Something I've said before, but the Skytrain functions more as a sort of hybrid commuter rail system than as a true "urban" metro. San Francisco's BART is probably the closest analogue, except we're missing the local light-metro component for trips within the city.

[SignalHillHiker]

My previous house was 60 Spencer (now-grey one), sold for $147K in 2021.

She replaced the windows in the front (made them much smaller, oddly), and replaced the fence in the back, but otherwise hasn't done much.

Anyway, point being the attached house is now asking WAY more than mine sold for.

[casper]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Have incomes risen by 15% since pre-pandemic? The only data I could find seems to suggest that they've only risen by 4.7% (average household income of $75,452 in 2023 vs. $73,000 in 2020). Given higher interest rates, actual mortgage payments will still be significantly higher as well - and no, we're still a ways away from meeting the BoC's 2% inflation target. Interest rates may drop slightly, but they won't be going back to 2020 levels any time soon.

You're also ignoring the rental side of the market, which continues to rise and is significantly more expensive (and with much lower vacancy) than it was in the past; so will also not be as effective as a release valve for high real estate costs as it was pre-pandemic.

In other words, housing in Canada will continue to be unaffordable.

Sources are not that consistent especially for 2023. Some are saying average salary in Canada is $68,400. While in 2020 it was $51,500. Are these numbers accurate? Hard to say.

Minimum wage in some provinces, like BC, are tied to inflation.

There was spike in building material costs. That has come down a bit.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Have incomes risen by 15% since pre-pandemic? The only data I could find seems to suggest that they've only risen by 4.7% (average household income of $75,452 in 2023 vs. $73,000 in 2020). Given higher interest rates, actual mortgage payments will still be significantly higher as well - and no, we're still a ways away from meeting the BoC's 2% inflation target. Interest rates may drop slightly, but they won't be going back to 2020 levels any time soon.

You're also ignoring the rental side of the market, which continues to rise and is significantly more expensive (and with much lower vacancy) than it was in the past; so will also not be as effective as a release valve for high real estate costs as it was pre-pandemic.

In other words, housing in Canada will continue to be unaffordable.

Median hourly wages are up about 17% since February 2022. Inflation since then is about 15% I believe.

Household incomes are different as they are income, not wages, and includes lots of people not working (ie on disability, retired, etc). Different measures. I think wages are more relevant in this context as I don’t imagine many first time buyers are not working.

That said - even if house prices are up only 15%, mortgage payments would be substantially higher as fixed rate mortgages are sitting at around 6% vs 3% before the pandemic.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Commercial-Broadway is one of those areas that has a lot of affordable rentals though, even if not super dense. Some intensification would no doubt be a positive here, but it's still going to be the homeowners who win big after selling their properties to developers, and the renters who suffer.

What's the alternative? Preventing this type of construction is part of what got Vancouver where it is today. Building a bunch of 20 storey apartments around Commercial-Broadway will be a win for the rental market. Taller buildings means fewer renovictions and less disruption for the same amount of new supply. They should probably allow higher FARs to minimize the redevelopment pain.

[SpongeG]

it's a bit painful to have to go through right now but it is needed and the outcome will be beneficial to many when it's able to start housing people.

Problem is still the large number of immigrants and students that come in every year and the large number of people in construction trades that are retiring and not many people going into the trades to replace them, so housing is needed and getting built at a pace below what it is needed to meet the numbers but no one is available to construct what is needed.

[whatnext]

Nobody wants to call this out, but the Trudeau Liberals had two very large tracts of land available that could have been used in Vancouver for the government to build nothing but affordable housing, but they decided to do some virtue-signalling instead.

https://www.clc-sic.ca/real-estate/jericho-lands
https://www.clc-sic.ca/real-estate/heather-lands

[Architype]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

it's a bit painful to have to go through right now but it is needed and the outcome will be beneficial to many when it's able to start housing people.

Problem is still the large number of immigrants and students that come in every year and the large number of people in construction trades that are retiring and not many people going into the trades to replace them, so housing is needed and getting built at a pace below what it is needed to meet the numbers but no one is available to construct what is needed.

I am not sure that the catch-22 cycle is quite that intractable in reality. TOD has been the plan for years now, nothing new really. However, IMO, while strategically increasing convenient transit-adjacent supply, it will also raise the cost of renting in these areas, as that is a given characteristic of any new construction over old supply.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Nobody wants to call this out, but the Trudeau Liberals had two very large tracts of land available that could have been used in Vancouver for the government to build nothing but affordable housing, but they decided to do some virtue-signalling instead.

https://www.clc-sic.ca/real-estate/jericho-lands
https://www.clc-sic.ca/real-estate/heather-lands

Isn't virtue signalling when someone does something mainly to look good when there's no real substance behind it? Like say, a politician who often mentions his family or his church to remind people that he's a family man or a church-goer when that doesn't directly relate to the discussion. Canada's relationship with indigenous peoples has been a challenge our entire history while including them in decisions about their own land couldn't be any more substantive. Pretty insulting to the indigenous community.

And if the government developed it on their own with 100% affordable housing they could just as easily be accused of virtue signaling. Using a hot button issue like the housing crisis to gain positive headlines and points with voters despite a few pieces of land being a drop in the housing bucket. While at the same time attacked for the lack of consultation and collaboration. Seems like you're more interested in finding opportunities to make partisan attacks than in making substantive analysis.

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Nobody wants to call this out, but the Trudeau Liberals had two very large tracts of land available that could have been used in Vancouver for the government to build nothing but affordable housing, but they decided to do some virtue-signalling instead.

https://www.clc-sic.ca/real-estate/jericho-lands
https://www.clc-sic.ca/real-estate/heather-lands

The plans are to build high rise towers (some reaching 49 stores) mostly for housing. The fact the development will be first nations owned is a positive.

[logan5]

The guy hates the fact that Natives are making money. Simple as that.