Canadian Airport Thread II

[Dominion301]

For the second time in as many weeks, Canada has a new bilateral air agreement with an African nation. This time, it's with Senegal and the main highlights are pretty much identical to Ghana:

- The right for airlines of either country to operate direct flights to any destination in the other country's territory.
- A capacity allowance of 14 weekly passenger flights and 10 weekly all-cargo flights for the airlines of each country.
- Significant operating flexibility for all-cargo services.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...848113630.html

[Dominion301]

YHZ's January 2025 pax stats:

Sector / 2019 / 2024 / 2025 / % Change vs 24 / vs 19
Dom: 214,519 / 169,983 / 187,519 / +10.3% / -12.6%
TB: 19,732 / 15,891 / 18,234 / +14.7% / -7.6%
Int'l: 14,292 / 31,423 / 28,344 / -9.8% / +98.3%
TTL: 248,543 / 217,297 / 234,097 / +7.7% / -5.8%

[Dominion301]

YEG January 2025 pax stats:

Domestic 404,950 / +12.4%
Transborder 73,768 / +18.2%
International 79,605 / +3.7%
Terminal Total: 558,323 / +11.8%

FBOs: 67,662 / +24.5%

[Dominion301]

YUL in January 2025, actually saw a small drop in pax count.

Dom: 436,702 / +0.6%
TB: 363,141 / -3.1%
Int'l: 865,563 / +0.1%
TTL: 1,665,406 / -0.5%

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

For the second time in as many weeks, Canada has a new bilateral air agreement with an African nation. This time, it's with Senegal and the main highlights are pretty much identical to Ghana:

- The right for airlines of either country to operate direct flights to any destination in the other country's territory.
- A capacity allowance of 14 weekly passenger flights and 10 weekly all-cargo flights for the airlines of each country.
- Significant operating flexibility for all-cargo services.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...848113630.html

So unlike ACC, this could be something launched from YUL instead of YYZ.

[nname]

Originally Posted by hehehe

So unlike ACC, this could be something launched from YUL instead of YYZ.

And with XLR instead of 787.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by hehehe

So unlike ACC, this could be something launched from YUL instead of YYZ.

Precisely.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

YUL in January 2025, actually saw a small drop in pax count.

Dom: 436,702 / +0.6%
TB: 363,141 / -3.1%
Int'l: 865,563 / +0.1%
TTL: 1,665,406 / -0.5%

It’s starting. Transborder numbers will be significantly down at all 4 major hubs this year. By the end of the year, if Trump keeps up his rhetoric, you will see US carriers pulling out of some Canadian routes. AC, WS and PD will do the same.

This is just the beginning.

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

It’s starting. Transborder numbers will be significantly down at all 4 major hubs this year. By the end of the year, if Trump keeps up his rhetoric, you will see US carriers pulling out of some Canadian routes. AC, WS and PD will do the same.

This is just the beginning.

While we will likely see big drops in transborder numbers with less business being done and leisure travelers staying away, the Montreal number really isn't about Trump. The bookings for January were mostly going to be done well before Trump really went off and the heavy Tariff talk. Other airports did fine or had big increases in January.

This is probably just a natural decline, especially with Ottawa having big USA flights in winter 2025 compared to other years with the expansion of Porter. Ottawa is probably just doing the local flights and will cause some declines in Montreal.

[hollywoodcory]

YYC Transborder was also down in January too.

January 2025
Domestic: 877,565 +2.6%
Transborder: 259,873 -2.3%
International: 212,275 +6.2%

January / YTD: 1,349,713 +2.2%

[nname]

Transborder also down for YVR

Domestic: 958,169 +4.2%
Transborder: 447,716 -4.4%
Asia Pacific: 387,050 +16.8%
Europe: 95,673 +8.8%
Misc. Intl: 151,607 -8.1%

January YTD: 2,040,215 +3.5%

[hehehe]

It's certainly beginning and this was for data that's two months ago, when the situation was still different. The next 3/4ths of the year are gonna be brutal TB wise, but I think AC/WS will add a lot of cross country travel. WS already does a lot of Atlantic flying out west, I expect to see that grow a lot more. YQB will probably see some good domestic gains as well.

Probably a lot more Mexico/sun flying as well.

[peytol]

This is definitely going to be bad for airlines, will someone in Victoria book a trip to St John's after they cancel their Orlando Disney trip? Probably not. Who knows how yields will hold up with a bunch of extra domestic capacity.

It will be interesting to see next winters schedules too, a plane can do 2 round trips on YYZ-MCO or YYC-PHX, but only one YYZ-BGI or YYC-CUN. so flying half the number of pax per day per plane, I wonder if we will see alot more red eyes south or super later arrivals if they start trying to get 2 round trips to Mexico per day.

[zahav]

Originally Posted by peytol

This is definitely going to be bad for airlines, will someone in Victoria book a trip to St John's after they cancel their Orlando Disney trip? Probably not. Who knows how yields will hold up with a bunch of extra domestic capacity.

It will be interesting to see next winters schedules too, a plane can do 2 round trips on YYZ-MCO or YYC-PHX, but only one YYZ-BGI or YYC-CUN. so flying half the number of pax per day per plane, I wonder if we will see alot more red eyes south or super later arrivals if they start trying to get 2 round trips to Mexico per day.

Exactly this, I have been mentioning this to my friends/family/coworkers basically any time the US/Canada trade war comes up (which is topic #1 pretty much across the board all over the country). I basically let people know very quickly that I am not a proponent of creepy jingoism/nationalism, I don't care who started it etc etc., I just hate this toxic environment at the moment. It in no way implies I support/condone anything about Trump or his policies, just that blind nationalistic fervour and anti-americanism is scary too. But the only real reason I ever engage in the (mostly) uneducated conversation that everyone seems comfortable starting, is to advocate for my passion, airports and their related spinoffs. People are forgetting how many people are employed by hospitality, airports, airlines, and the spinoffs in major cities. They don't seem to be given any thought, we have the highest levels telling people to stop flying there, wtf... Again, not saying that Canada should have done nothing just to protect airports and tourism, that's obv. ridiculous. But in the anti-US fervour, they are forgetting how much so many places rely on tourism. So even though the message was for Canadians to not go to the US and not vice versa, the implication or feeling for many Americans will be to not go to Canada. As much as we like to think all Americans coming to Canada love us and will 100% see our side blah blah, that's absurd. At lease some, even if they don't hate Canada, will feel we are not welcoming. Sighhhh, sometimes I have to remind myself this isn't a dream and somehow we are in the biggest fight the US is having with anyone right now. People in Iran are probably even like "Dammmnnn Canada is really getting it hard at the moment, worse than us" LOL jk, exaggeration but to make a point

[zahav]

As if this nightmare airport situation wasn't bad enough already, a couple days ago looked at Google Flights for this summer and there's something weird happening with lots of AC's transborder routes... I searched certain main routes just to see if there were new cuts, and on many routes from YVR, YYZ, and YUL there were the flights available for purchase with the existing schedule, but then right under there would be an Air Canada flight at the identical departure time, but not available to purchase. They're like ghost results. And all of these new flights were Jazz flight numbers, and all (or most) of the existing flights were mainline. No more details, and you couldn't book as I said, but wtf was that? To make things weirder, then they disappeared and it was back to just the schedule we know, no more ghost results. So I was relieved, but still nervous about what's coming. Then earlier today, I repeated the searches, and the ghost results were back, same thing as Thursday. But I tried just now, and gone again. It's like the booking engine is intentionally stoking my anxiety lol... I am freaked though, because from what I saw was almost total replacement of mainline with Jazz on the bulk of transborder routes (I didn't do an exhaustive city by city search, just popular routes from all 3 AC hubs). But basically other than sun leisure destinations in Florida, most routes had Jazz ghost results. Whatever Google displayed, it sure wasn't created by them, it was pulling from somewhere with legit flight #s, that's what scares me. My optimistic side hopes it was a shadow schedule or something that AC has as a back-up in case things collapse long term, and it isn't actually happening, at least not yet. But the nervous pessimistic side of me is dreading searching Google Flights and seeing the all-Jazz catastrophe is real.

I did check the Air Canada website itself directly after seeing these results, and nothing comes up there. I also checked OAG flight timetables for YVR, which sometimes show things earlier than airlines themselves, and they don't have any of the Jazz flights. But I am not taking either of these occurrences as solid assurances, they could change anytime. Again, if anyone knows more about how these booking engines/data retrieval processes work, please post a reply.

[Ace Cdn]

Originally Posted by zahav

As if this nightmare airport situation wasn't bad enough already, a couple days ago looked at Google Flights for this summer and there's something weird happening with lots of AC's transborder routes... I searched certain main routes just to see if there were new cuts, and on many routes from YVR, YYZ, and YUL there were the flights available for purchase with the existing schedule, but then right under there would be an Air Canada flight at the identical departure time, but not available to purchase. They're like ghost results. And all of these new flights were Jazz flight numbers, and all (or most) of the existing flights were mainline. No more details, and you couldn't book as I said, but wtf was that? To make things weirder, then they disappeared and it was back to just the schedule we know, no more ghost results. So I was relieved, but still nervous about what's coming. Then earlier today, I repeated the searches, and the ghost results were back, same thing as Thursday. But I tried just now, and gone again. It's like the booking engine is intentionally stoking my anxiety lol... I am freaked though, because from what I saw was almost total replacement of mainline with Jazz on the bulk of transborder routes (I didn't do an exhaustive city by city search, just popular routes from all 3 AC hubs). But basically other than sun leisure destinations in Florida, most routes had Jazz ghost results. Whatever Google displayed, it sure wasn't created by them, it was pulling from somewhere with legit flight #s, that's what scares me. My optimistic side hopes it was a shadow schedule or something that AC has as a back-up in case things collapse long term, and it isn't actually happening, at least not yet. But the nervous pessimistic side of me is dreading searching Google Flights and seeing the all-Jazz catastrophe is real.

I did check the Air Canada website itself directly after seeing these results, and nothing comes up there. I also checked OAG flight timetables for YVR, which sometimes show things earlier than airlines themselves, and they don't have any of the Jazz flights. But I am not taking either of these occurrences as solid assurances, they could change anytime. Again, if anyone knows more about how these booking engines/data retrieval processes work, please post a reply.

They are definitely adjusting the schedule. I was looking at a flight from YVR-SMF in April and the flight on Wednesdays is gone all together where before it was daily.

[zahav]

Ugh I figured it wasn't a blip, but was hoping I was wrong %^&%&*^%^&

As others have said, it is delusional to think all the US-bound travel cancellations will simply transfer over to domestic or international travel, it will be an overall loss for sure. Maybe some cities will benefit a bit (ie. Kelowna, while nowhere near the same thing as California, could get some boost from people planning to do Palm Springs, Napa, but even that's a stretch). The fact is, most US travel cancellations will result in trips being delayed to see what happens, and not rebooked to Asia lol. I can't believe where we are right now, suffering politically-caused travel collapse with the US and China, wtf... If I could go back and tell 2019 me that in 5-6 years, we will basically be enemies with both countries and limited flights, I never would've imagined.

[MonctonRad]

I could see WestJet boosting their schedule in the east a bit in response to decreased trans border traffic.

Moncton has daily year round Calgary, and seasonal WestJet flights to Edmonton and Toronto.

I could see Toronto becoming year round and daily to compete with Air Canada and Porter. I could see another route of two being considered. Right now only Porter flies from Moncton to Ottawa. In the past we had Air Canada supplying this route too. I think WestJet could step in and provide some competition here too.

[q12]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Moncton has daily year round Calgary, and seasonal WestJet flights to Edmonton and Toronto.

Westjet's Moncton-Calgary is only daily seasonal in the summer sked starting the end of April to early October.

Currently it's only 2x weekly.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by q12

Westjet's Moncton-Calgary is only daily seasonal in the summer sked starting the end of April to early October.

Currently it's only 2x weekly.

Well then, yet another opportunity to expand service in the east when the trans border routes dry up.

You must see some opportunities for WestJet to expand service out of YHZ too q12 under the current geopolitical paradigm. How about more trans Atlantic routes to Lisbon, Madrid, Madeira etc............