The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

How do tax incentives, if any at all, drive those significant increases in EV sales?

Incentives are winding down in high adoption jurisdictions and the Chinese automakers in particular are pumping out EVs at costs that are competitive with ICEVs. Even Norway is winding down incentives and on its way to 100%, well ahead of their 2025 goal. We're now seeing that this is all starting to move the way folks like Tony Seba predicted.

Subsidies were only needed as long as EVs were really expensive. As we approach price parity, the need for subsidies goes down (and away eventually). At a certain point, we won't need subsidies but mandates to make sure we don't become a dumping ground for leftover ICEV capacity from the automakers.

I'm looking forward to the Chinese OEMs doing for EVs what Chinese PV manufacturers did to solar PV prices, over the next 3-5 years. I think they are catching on that it's easier to compete with the legacy automakers outside China than in their own home market.

[WarrenC12]

If you want a Tesla 3 in Canada there's a 7 month wait. Closer to 10 if you want the barebones model (no paint/wheels add on).

And they just increased the price $2k.

[MolsonExport]

Which leaves Tesla very vulnerable once one of the Japanese car manufacturers goes all-in with EV production. Wouldn't it be great if Honda (Alliston) or Toyota (Woodstock) could leave ICEs behind?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Which leaves Tesla very vulnerable once one of the Japanese car manufacturers goes all-in with EV production. Wouldn't it be great if Honda (Alliston) or Toyota (Woodstock) could leave ICEs behind?

Yeah, that's been the story for the last 4-5 years though. The Japanese automakers are far behind.

Tesla's biggest threat is probably VW, which is starting to produce and sell a lot in Europe.

But this is about EV adoption generally. Clearly demand is higher than ever.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Yeah, that's been the story for the last 4-5 years though. The Japanese automakers are far behind.

Tesla's biggest threat is probably VW, which is starting to produce and sell a lot in Europe.

But this is about EV adoption generally. Clearly demand is higher than ever.

They are, and will likely remain so.

Toyotas 2022 Tundra, its completely redesigned full size pick up, is coming with a mixed powerplant Turbo ICE/EV mix.

This full size truck, according to early reviews, is getting mileage on par with the Prius, which means low single digit per 100km.

I think if Toyota can make that a reality across its platforms, I doubt they plunge into EV full steam ahead for awhile yet, as its likely to keep its customer base happy.

What's of interest is how a manufacturer like Toyota is navigating the ICE vehicle bans coming in the 2030's around the world. That's a seismic shift I'm sure they are planning well ahead for.

Also - does anyone know if a mix ICE/EV like Prius or now Tundra, does that fall under the "banned" category in Canada come 2030?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Which leaves Tesla very vulnerable once one of the Japanese car manufacturers goes all-in with EV production. Wouldn't it be great if Honda (Alliston) or Toyota (Woodstock) could leave ICEs behind?

Originally Posted by rofina

I think if Toyota can make that a reality across its platforms, I doubt they plunge into EV full steam ahead for awhile yet, as its likely to keep its customer base happy.

I never understand why people think they will catch up easily. The bottleneck with EVs is battery supply. It takes years to ramp up battery production. Toyota needs to be investing today to have the supply for EVs they want to make in 2025. They aren't doing that. And by the time they come around to it, their competitors will be even further ahead.

Come 2025, the Chinese OEMs will be exporting EVs at prices competitive to Toyota's cars and taking share from them around the world. And Toyota will have no battery supply to respond. The smart OEMs understand this. It's why VW is having crisis meetings right now.

Originally Posted by rofina

They are, and will likely remain so.

Toyotas 2022 Tundra, its completely redesigned full size pick up, is coming with a mixed powerplant Turbo ICE/EV mix.

This full size truck, according to early reviews, is getting mileage on par with the Prius, which means low single digit per 100km.

Like the Ford Maverick hybrid. And all this stuff is going to be irrelevant in 5-8 years when there's cheaper electric pickups on the market.

Originally Posted by rofina

What's of interest is how a manufacturer like Toyota is navigating the ICE vehicle bans coming in the 2030's around the world. That's a seismic shift I'm sure they are planning well ahead for.

They are lobbying hard against it. That's what they are doing.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07...he-transition/

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/25/c...-hydrogen.html

And of course, there's fear mongering against their own government at home:

https://www.autonews.com/manufacturi...-vital-culture

Originally Posted by rofina

Also - does anyone know if a mix ICE/EV like Prius or now Tundra, does that fall under the "banned" category in Canada come 2030?

As of now, there's no legislated ban in Canada. The government just has an intent to pass something. Next, any such ban will only be on new sales. Vehicles currently on the road will be fine. And yes, I imagine a "ban" that is legislated for 2035 would prohibit hybrid sales too. Though I think most automakers will be 100% no tailpipes by 2035 anyway.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Yeah, that's been the story for the last 4-5 years though. The Japanese automakers are far behind.

Tesla's biggest threat is probably VW, which is starting to produce and sell a lot in Europe.

But this is about EV adoption generally. Clearly demand is higher than ever.

I think it's entirely possible that we are seeing the transition to a whole new market where the top 3 automakers are Tesla, VW and BYD (the only company in the world that makes every component for an EV), with the Chinese automakers growing to 40-50% of marketshare globally. Aside from Tesla and VW, there's nobody building the kind of battery capacity that the Chinese are building.

Even the likes of Ford and GM are still talking about half their cars being ICEVs in 2030. They are going to get run over by the Chinese. And Toyota and Honda are well behind GM and Ford. I expect panic is setting in, at their corporate boardrooms. I expect lots of press releases about how they're pivoting in the next 18 months.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I never understand why people think they will catch up easily. The bottleneck with EVs is battery supply. It takes years to ramp up battery production. Toyota needs to be investing today to have the supply for EVs they want to make in 2025. They aren't doing that. And by the time they come around to it, their competitors will be even further ahead.

That makes sense. But I imagine third party would be the solution here.

Toyota I will say is particularly perplexing in this regard; they are kind of pioneers here with the Prius EV tech. They had the Prius on the road when Elon was still PayPal. Toyota really should be a leader.

Come 2025, the Chinese OEMs will be exporting EVs at prices competitive to Toyota's cars and taking share from them around the world. And Toyota will have no battery supply to respond. The smart OEMs understand this. It's why VW is having crisis meetings right now.

Agreed. That said, not sure how responsive Western consumers will be to Chinese cars.

Like the Ford Maverick hybrid. And all this stuff is going to be irrelevant in 5-8 years when there's cheaper electric pickups on the market.

I'm not quite as optimistic. I think range and time to recharge are going to keep ICE in business in the truck sector for longer than elsewhere. But I'm by no means making a statement, I don't know enough about the tech.

They are lobbying hard against it. That's what they are doing.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07...he-transition/

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/25/c...-hydrogen.html

And of course, there's fear mongering against their own government at home:

https://www.autonews.com/manufacturi...-vital-culture

Disappointing. I despise when legacy business use obfuscation and laws instead of innovation to compete.

As of now, there's no legislated ban in Canada. The government just has an intent to pass something. Next, any such ban will only be on new sales. Vehicles currently on the road will be fine. And yes, I imagine a "ban" that is legislated for 2035 would prohibit hybrid sales too. Though I think most automakers will be 100% no tailpipes by 2035 anyway.

I mixed this up. I believe BC has a legislative ban in place already, but don't recall if that's 2030 or 2035.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by rofina

That makes sense. But I imagine third party would be the solution here.

The problem is that there's not much spare third party capacity. The minute battery makers announce new factories, some automaker is lined up to buy the supply. There's a reason that Tesla set out to build and co-locate its own battery manufacturing. They realized this supply constraint very early.

Companies like Toyota are still thinking that the transition will be slow, or that they can simply turn up supply late by throwing money at the problem. It's becoming obvious the threat they face. Hence the pressure. Japan has 5 million auto manufacturing jobs at risk, if they get this wrong.

Originally Posted by rofina

Toyota I will say is particularly perplexing in this regard; they are kind of pioneers here with the Prius EV tech. They had the Prius on the road when Elon was still PayPal. Toyota really should be a leader.

Akio Toyoda is doing the classic third generation of thing of running the great family business into the ground.

Originally Posted by rofina

Agreed. That said, not sure how responsive Western consumers will be to Chinese cars.

Europeans are buying them:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...pe-2021-09-30/

Your laptop and phone and probably a third of your car is made in China today as is. That said, Western consumers don't need to buy anything. Chinese automakers can hurt legacy automakers just by taking share in the developing world. That still cuts profits and funds for development.

Originally Posted by rofina

I'm not quite as optimistic. I think range and time to recharge are going to keep ICE in business in the truck sector for longer than elsewhere. But I'm by no means making a statement, I don't know enough about the tech.

The tech is moving so fast that I'm willing to bet that range concerns will be addressed in the second generation later this decade. Charge times will also be less of an issue as 150 kW fast chargers proliferate and the second generation moves to 800V architecture.

Originally Posted by rofina

Disappointing. I despise when legacy business use obfuscation and laws instead of innovation to compete.

Me too. This seems to me happening across so many fronts. From nuclear power plant owners bribing regulators to keep renewables out, to carmakers fighting mandates, to dairy farmers lobbying against plant based milks being called "milk". Lots of incumbent working hard to push that advantage and particularly reliant on the ignorance of the average consumer.

Originally Posted by rofina

I mixed this up. I believe BC has a legislative ban in place already, but don't recall if that's 2030 or 2035.

BC's mandate is for 2040 and it only applies to new vehicle sales:

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2020EMPR0031-001416

The target for 2025 is 10% and it's 30% for 2030. That's not ambitious at all. Entirely possible that BC meets their 2030 goal in 2025.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The problem is that there's not much spare third party capacity. The minute battery makers announce new factories, some automaker is lined up to buy the supply. There's a reason that Tesla set out to build and co-locate its own battery manufacturing. They realized this supply constraint very early.

Companies like Toyota are still thinking that the transition will be slow, or that they can simply turn up supply late by throwing money at the problem. It's becoming obvious the threat they face. Hence the pressure. Japan has 5 million auto manufacturing jobs at risk, if they get this wrong.



Akio Toyoda is doing the classic third generation of thing of running the great family business into the ground.



Europeans are buying them:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...pe-2021-09-30/

Your laptop and phone and probably a third of your car is made in China today as is. That said, Western consumers don't need to buy anything. Chinese automakers can hurt legacy automakers just by taking share in the developing world. That still cuts profits and funds for development.




The tech is moving so fast that I'm willing to bet that range concerns will be addressed in the second generation later this decade. Charge times will also be less of an issue as 150 kW fast chargers proliferate and the second generation moves to 800V architecture.



Me too. This seems to me happening across so many fronts. From nuclear power plant owners bribing regulators to keep renewables out, to carmakers fighting mandates, to dairy farmers lobbying against plant based milks being called "milk". Lots of incumbent working hard to push that advantage and particularly reliant on the ignorance of the average consumer.




BC's mandate is for 2040 and it only applies to new vehicle sales:

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2020EMPR0031-001416

The target for 2025 is 10% and it's 30% for 2030. That's not ambitious at all. Entirely possible that BC meets their 2030 goal in 2025.

Good insights man. I appreciate your knowledge on this subject, thanks for taking the time to share.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Europeans are buying them:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...pe-2021-09-30/

Your laptop and phone and probably a third of your car is made in China today as is. That said, Western consumers don't need to buy anything. Chinese automakers can hurt legacy automakers just by taking share in the developing world. That still cuts profits and funds for development.

I expect North Americans will adopt them slowly but they will compete well eventually if they follow the pattern of Japanese auto manufacturers.

The political aspect with respect to trade and tarriffs will be interesting. Will China agree to set up manufacturing here?

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The tech is moving so fast that I'm willing to bet that range concerns will be addressed in the second generation later this decade. Charge times will also be less of an issue as 150 kW fast chargers proliferate and the second generation moves to 800V architecture.

I think it's already done. People just need to get behind the wheel and see what it's like on a daily basis.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The target for 2025 is 10% and it's 30% for 2030. That's not ambitious at all. Entirely possible that BC meets their 2030 goal in 2025.

BC is already at 10% in 2021, 30% in 2025 is almost assured.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I expect North Americans will adopt them slowly but they will compete well eventually if they follow the pattern of Japanese auto manufacturers.

I expect North Americans will be absolutely slow to take them up. But that's okay. The mere presence of them will be fantastic to keep the pressure on all the other brands. I'm really getting annoyed by how much North America has been ignored for EV supply. Canada has had it particularly bad, given our higher gas prices.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The political aspect with respect to trade and tarriffs will be interesting. Will China agree to set up manufacturing here?

BYD already assembles buses in Canada and the US. Local assembly is a great way to bypass tariffs. They can just keep sourcing a ton of components from China....just like the competition.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I think it's already done. People just need to get behind the wheel and see what it's like on a daily basis.

There's room for improvement. Ford is launching the F150 Lightning next year and didn't even build in 800V architecture. I think Gen 2 is where we'll finally see them correct a ton of mistakes (or lack of ambition) in their EVs.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

BC is already at 10% in 2021, 30% in 2025 is almost assured.

Nice. Yeah. I think all these targets are politicians reading the tea leaves and setting up targets to make themselves look good. The real question is who has has the cojones to go for 100% by 2030.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

There's room for improvement. Ford is launching the F150 Lightning next year and didn't even build in 800V architecture. I think Gen 2 is where we'll finally see them correct a ton of mistakes (or lack of ambition) in their EVs.

I'm not sold on 800V as a requirement, but time will tell.

The 800V cars (Taycan only so far?) can't charge on existing 400V fast chargers. There may not be an appetite to move to 800V for a long time, unless there's a dramatic cost advantage or something else.

[jawagord]

……for the Bright Green Era!

"If a wind turbine falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"

TransAlta Renewables Inc. says it has temporarily taken a wind farm in New Brunswick offline after a tower collapse. The Calgary-based company says one of the towers at the 167 MW Kent Hills wind facility in Kent Hills, N.B. collapsed. The facility is majority owned by TransAlta's indirect subsidiary Kent Hills Wind LP.

https://www.thestar.com/business/202...-collapse.html

Nice Picture!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...wick-1.6211106


Hamburg-based wind turbine manufacturer Nordex has suspended operation of 19 units of a particular configuration of its N149/4.0-4.5MW model that were in service in Germany, following the collapse of one of the turbines at the 9MW Haltern AV9 wind farm near Essen. Nordex said the turbine collapsed on 29 September “almost completely”, and the nacelle and rotor blades fell to the ground.Buddy The turbine was installed on a 164-metre tower in January this year, coming into operation on 11 March.

https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2021...es-in-germany/

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by jawagord

……for the Bright Green Era!

"If a wind turbine falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"

TransAlta Renewables Inc. says it has temporarily taken a wind farm in New Brunswick offline after a tower collapse. The Calgary-based company says one of the towers at the 167 MW Kent Hills wind facility in Kent Hills, N.B. collapsed. The facility is majority owned by TransAlta's indirect subsidiary Kent Hills Wind LP.

https://www.thestar.com/business/202...-collapse.html

Nice Picture!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...wick-1.6211106


Hamburg-based wind turbine manufacturer Nordex has suspended operation of 19 units of a particular configuration of its N149/4.0-4.5MW model that were in service in Germany, following the collapse of one of the turbines at the 9MW Haltern AV9 wind farm near Essen. Nordex said the turbine collapsed on 29 September “almost completely”, and the nacelle and rotor blades fell to the ground.Buddy The turbine was installed on a 164-metre tower in January this year, coming into operation on 11 March.

https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2021...es-in-germany/

There are more than 6700 wind turbines in Canada. Shall we go into the number of oil spills and explosions at extraction facilities over the number of years?

Continuing 2018's growth, Canada finished 2019 with 13,413 MW of wind energy capacity - enough to power approximately 3.4 million homes. The year saw completion of five projects that added 597 MW of new installed capacity, representing over $1 billion of investment. Canada is home to the world's ninth largest wind generating fleet.

Two of the year's five new projects included significant ownership stakes from Aboriginal Peoples, municipal corporations or local owners.

There are 301 wind farms operating from coast to coast, including projects in two of the three northern territories.

2019:


https://canwea.ca/wind-energy/installed-capacity/

Canadian Wind Turbine Database
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/datas...6-c26d718cc070

[WarrenC12]

I'll take that over this:



Kinder Morgan, Burnaby, 2007.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I'll take that over this:



Kinder Morgan, Burnaby, 2007.

Well. You just made me feel ancient.

That was 2007?!? Wtf.

I thought that was like 5 years ago max.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by rofina

Well. You just made me feel ancient.

That was 2007?!? Wtf.

I thought that was like 5 years ago max.

So many spills, they are hard to track.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by jawagord

……for the Bright Green Era!

"If a wind turbine falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"

TransAlta Renewables Inc. says it has temporarily taken a wind farm in New Brunswick offline after a tower collapse. The Calgary-based company says one of the towers at the 167 MW Kent Hills wind facility in Kent Hills, N.B. collapsed. The facility is majority owned by TransAlta's indirect subsidiary Kent Hills Wind LP.

https://www.thestar.com/business/202...-collapse.html

Nice Picture!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...wick-1.6211106


Hamburg-based wind turbine manufacturer Nordex has suspended operation of 19 units of a particular configuration of its N149/4.0-4.5MW model that were in service in Germany, following the collapse of one of the turbines at the 9MW Haltern AV9 wind farm near Essen. Nordex said the turbine collapsed on 29 September “almost completely”, and the nacelle and rotor blades fell to the ground.Buddy The turbine was installed on a 164-metre tower in January this year, coming into operation on 11 March.

https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2021...es-in-germany/

I see your wind turbine failure and raise you the write-off of $750M in carbon capture and storage at a coal power plant that tripled in price to $7.5B and ended up burning natural gas.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemper_Project

• Video Link

The best part was sticking ratepayers with the bill. Just like all you good ol' boys in Alberta will do to taxpayers with abandoned oil wells and tailings ponds.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I'll take that over this:



Kinder Morgan, Burnaby, 2007.

Yep. And that tower collapse is nowhere as messy as this. But, it's telling how hilariously desperate the FUD is getting. Must be hard to accept that utilities don't give a shit about their internet FUD.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The best part was sticking ratepayers with the bill. Just like all you good ol' boys in Alberta will do to taxpayers with abandoned oil wells and tailings ponds.

And our dipshit provincial government refuses to raise the reclamation fees now that we have what will likely be one of if not the final oil price boom happening. My great grandchildren will be paying to reclaim this disaster. Now imagine if they build all the proposed new coal mines in the Foothills when the market for metallurgical coal is sure to crater in the near future with new greener steel coking tech.