The US Census Bureau thread

[Trae]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

When baselining against the number of deaths in 2019, the excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 appears to be 90% COVID related. Once the pandemic cools off, that should go back down.

Why should it go down when the Baby Boomer generation, second largest to the Millenials, is dying off at the same time? This is only going to accelerate.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by Yuri

2021 numbers for vital statistics in the US are out:

------------ Births ----- Deaths

2000 --- 4,058,814 --- 2,403,351

2007 --- 4,316,234 --- 2,423,712

2019 --- 3,747,540 --- 2,854,858

2020 --- 3,613,647 --- 3,389,100

2021 --- 3,600,000 --- 3,428,549

Excess deathsby Covid is about 1 million in 2020-2021. 2022 is not looking promising and the US is heading for at least 3.2 million or more, way above 2019.

It's crazy to think that as late as 2007, the US was registering a 1.9 million natural growth. In 2021, it fell to 180k. Getting very close to negative terrain.

What's the source?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mhays

What's the source?

Wikipedia's article Demographics of the United States > Vital Statistics. Their source is the CDC.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Yuri

2021 numbers for vital statistics in the US are out:

------------ Births ----- Deaths

2000 --- 4,058,814 --- 2,403,351

2007 --- 4,316,234 --- 2,423,712

2019 --- 3,747,540 --- 2,854,858

2020 --- 3,613,647 --- 3,389,100

2021 --- 3,600,000 --- 3,428,549

Excess deathsby Covid is about 1 million in 2020-2021. 2022 is not looking promising and the US is heading for at least 3.2 million or more, way above 2019.

It's crazy to think that as late as 2007, the US was registering a 1.9 million natural growth. In 2021, it fell to 180k. Getting very close to negative terrain.

2021 final numbers out:

------------ Births ----- Deaths

2000 --- 4,058,814 --- 2,403,351

2007 --- 4,316,234 --- 2,423,712

2019 --- 3,747,540 --- 2,854,858

2020 --- 3,613,647 --- 3,389,084

2021 --- 3,600,335 --- 3,452,292

Projecting 2022, given the number of Covid deaths are still very high, there are good chances that deaths might have outnumbered births in the 1Q/2022 as it happened for some period in 2020 and 2021.

[craigs]

If I'm not mistaken, California is one of the only states in which the population is increasingly born in-state.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by craigs

If I'm not mistaken, California is one of the only states in which the population is increasingly born in-state.

The Great Lake states as well, presumably due to how negative domestic migration is.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

The Great Lake states as well, presumably due to how negative domestic migration is.

Domestic migration and relatively low level of foreign immigration.

[mhays]

They're statisticians, not urban theorists.

But sometimes today's growth makes tomorrow's growth harder. And big factors like climate change will likely be headwinds (heh) to places like Dallas.

[mhays]

Why would we only grow that much? Immigration alone will likely exceed that figure.

[MAC123]

Originally Posted by mhays

Why would we only grow that much? Immigration alone will likely exceed that figure.

25 million immigrants in 30 years? You sure about that? Idk

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mhays

Why would we only grow that much? Immigration alone will likely exceed that figure.

Natural growth will most likely be negative from the late 2020’s onwards. So actually it’s way more than 25 million immigrants to make the 25 million.

[mhays]

The US typically does a million a year, aside from Covid.

Persons Obtaining Lawful Permanent Resident Status:
2019 1,031,765
2018 1,096,611
2017 1,127,167
2016 1,183,505
2015 1,051,031
2014 1,016,518
2013 990,553
2012 1,031,631
2011 1,062,040
2010 1,042,625
2009 1,130,818
2008 1,107,126
2007 1,052,415
2006 1,266,129

https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-stat.../yearbook/2019

[MAC123]

Originally Posted by mhays

The US typically does a million a year, aside from Covid.

Persons Obtaining Lawful Permanent Resident Status:
2019 1,031,765
2018 1,096,611
2017 1,127,167
2016 1,183,505
2015 1,051,031
2014 1,016,518
2013 990,553
2012 1,031,631
2011 1,062,040
2010 1,042,625
2009 1,130,818
2008 1,107,126
2007 1,052,415
2006 1,266,129

https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-stat.../yearbook/2019

Hmm, interesting. Well I guess we could then. And that doesn't account for "unofficial" immigration either, which I don't really have a problem with.

[mhays]

I'm not sure I buy that. Death rates will decrease with Covid. Birth rates might recover partially as the Trump/Covid era goes away, even while many economic factors remain.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mhays

I'm not sure I buy that. Death rates will decrease with Covid. Birth rates might recover partially as the Trump/Covid era goes away, even while many economic factors remain.

Deaths trending high as expected and by 2030 baby boomers will start to die off. On the other hand, the number of births is collapsing, which is a worldwide trend since the mid-2010’s. Births can go up, but there is no indication in that direction.

Births might fall even further, to 3.3 million by 2030 as many millennials will be leaving the childbearing age whereas deaths will keep climbing from the 2.8 million in 2019 to 3.5 million by 2030 with baby boomers dying off. From there, it will be two more decades with negative growth as more and more people will die every year and less people will be born as there will be less people on child bearing age.

The Census Bureau hasn’t released the new projections. The last one was that from 2017-2060. I guess they’ll soon revisit this, as they were estimating a much higher birth rate. If I need to bet, I’d go with the 25 million increase.

[SAN Man]

I hope the US stabilizes at 400 million people. If we don't stabilize, what are we aiming for? A China/India situation in the Eastern third of the country?

[MAC123]

Originally Posted by SAN Man

I hope the US stabilizes at 400 million people. If we don't stabilize, what are we aiming for? A China/India situation in the Eastern third of the country?

It's unlikely we reach China or India's population within the next 2 centuries at the rate we're going (then again at the rate we're going we might not even match our own current population).

[SAN Man]

Originally Posted by MAC123

It's unlikely we reach China or India's population within the next 2 centuries at the rate we're going (then again at the rate we're going we might not even match our own current population).

Unlikely, that's why I was saying I hope we stabilize at 400 million.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by MAC123

It's unlikely we reach China or India's population within the next 2 centuries at the rate we're going (then again at the rate we're going we might not even match our own current population).

The U.S. might surpass China when some of us are still alive. And it's pretty likely for our children's lifetimes. China has one of the steepest long-term downturns, coupled with its male preference. The U.S. controls its population destiny via immigration.

We'll all be dead, but my wild guess for 2100 is 1. India 2. U.S., 3. China, 4. Nigeria, 5. Pakistan

[MAC123]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The U.S. might surpass China when some of us are still alive. And it's pretty likely for our children's lifetimes. China has one of the steepest long-term downturns, coupled with its male preference.

Oh yeah, I hear the estimates are something like their population going all the way down to 600 million. While Nigeria's are projected to go up to 750+. India is also projected to go down to 1 billion. Still a lot of freaking people.