Quote:
Originally Posted by lrt's friend
There is always a transfer penalty. You lose riders with every transfer. Even TTC studies confirm this. Yes, with more frequent service, the penalty is smaller but there is still a penalty and as I recall it is something like triple compared to the time actually spent on a transit vehicle. So a 2 minute transfer wait, is perceived as a 6 minute penalty.
And yes, I am familiar with the studies about direct and more frequent service with transfers. Which I think is very simplistic analysis and is highly dependent on the actual routing comparisons. In the end, isn't it about what gets you from door to door the fastest? And when transit is perceived to be too slow and inconvenient, we all know what happens.
Ignore the Lansdowne experience and its amazing success if you so choose.
I also think our friend from Toronto tells the tale. Drive to a park n ride with direct rapid transit service to the arena or park somewhere close to the arena. This is exactly consistent with what I am saying. The average sports fan who does not use transit regularly is not going to be attracted to a system that requires transfers. And therefore, we need to take this into consideration in making things better in preparation for a downtown arena.
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Remember that wait times at the start of the trip have an even bigger penalty than transfers. If the direct route alternative to multiple transfers requires a much longer wait, it becomes way less attractive. This is why a system with multiple transfers and higher frequencies is more attractive over a point-to-point system, because it enables higher overall frequencies. This is why, for example, your idea of extending the 5 to South Keys is flawed, because nobody's going to sit around and wait at South Keys for the 30-minute frequency #5 when they could have been long on their way if they had taken 97 -> Confederation. So, people are going to be more willing to take a 2-minute frequency LRT to a 2-minute frequency bus to get their car, than are going to be willing to wait 15 minutes for a direct 400-series shuttle.
The transfer penalty itself is hugely dependent on the nature of the transfer. A transfer at an arterial road intersection that involves having to cross the street will have a way higher penalty than a quick and easy transfer in a climate controlled sheltered station. The TTC studies you mention complain mainly of arterial road intersection transfers which are common in Toronto because of how the bus system uses an almost pure grid system.
There's a similar effect at play for walking distances. People, if given a choice, will generally prefer to walk a longer distance to a high frequency route rather than take a low frequency route right outside their door. In short, all the research shows that in the end, frequency is the #1 factor that affects ridership. Directness, walking distance, even speed, all play second fiddle to the all holy grail of frequency. That's why OC Transpo has had such difficulty growing ridership, it's because their management places very little value on frequency and often sacrifices it for the sake of other objectives (such as directness).
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