I got on this train of thought so I might as well continue it.
The Riding Redistribution Commission were kind enough to provide population totals for each of the provincial ridings they drew up. Below are the population averages by region as determined by the commission:
2014 Population, Average by Region (total) - number of ridings -
Northern: .....14,075 (112,597) - 8 ridings -
Miramichi: ....14,567 (43,701).. - 3 ridings -
Southeast: ...15,492 (216,887). - 14 ridings -
South: .........15,532 (170,850). - 11 ridings -
Capital: ........16,197 (129,574) - 8 ridings -
River Valley:..15,397 (76,986).. - 5 ridings -
Of course, these are total populations and not the voting age population, which is what the riding boundaries are determined by (electoral quotient). Below I will list the vote total average for each of these regions by riding for the 2014 and 2018 elections:
2014 and 2018 Vote Total Average by riding, by Region
Northern:......11,338 / 11,186
Miramichi:.....11,138 / 11,311
Southeast:....11,400 / 12,022
South:..........11,107 / 11,369
Capital:........11,290 / 11,859
River Valley:.11,189 / 11,403
Even with an increase in total electors for the 2018 election the eight Northern ridings had a decline in their average number of voters. It is safe to assume that the total population in these ridings has decreased and thus the total elector base has also decreased (the population of a riding like Caraquet in 2014 was 12,866, compared to Moncton-area ridings which average 15,300). Conversely, population increases in Moncton and Fredericton will surely warrant a redrawing of boundaries for an additional riding in Southern NB at the expense of the Northern cluster of ridings.
Below is a breakdown representing the proportion of total votes cast by region for 2014 and 2018.
Proportion of total votes cast, by region, 2014 and 2018 elections
Northern:.....16.4% / 15.7%
Miramichi:.....6.1% / 6.0%
Southeast:...28.9% / 29.6%
South:.........22.1% / 22.0%
Capital:........16.4% / 16.7%
River Valley:.10.1% / 10.0%
And now comparing proportion of votes cast by region compared to share of ridings:
Proportion of total votes cast, by region, 2018 / proportion of ridings total
Northern:.....15.7% / 16.3%
Miramichi:.....6.0% / 6.1%
Southeast:...29.6% / 28.6%
South:.........22.0% / 22.4%
Capital:........16.7% / 16.3%
River Valley:.10.0% / 10.2%
So the ridings for 2014 were perfectly balanced, but we can begin to see the offsetting difference in elector totals as time goes by. By 2022 (or whenever the next election is) there will be a continued trend of population increasing in the south and decreasing in the north, warranting a shift of a riding from north to south. If I had to guess I would say that Northern loses a riding which is shifted towards the Capital region. Both New Maryland-Sunbury and Fredericton West-Hanwell are well above the average population even in 2014. By 2022 there will likely need to be another riding stretching into this area.
What does this mean for language?
Here are the breakdowns on the majority language of ridings by region:
Northern: 8 FR ridings
Miramichi: 3 ENG ridings
Southeast: 8 ENG ridings, 5 FR ridings, 1 even split (Moncton-Centre)
South: 11 ENG ridings
Capital: 8 ENG ridings
River Valley: 3 FR ridings, 2 ENG ridings
Looking bluntly, this gives us 32 English ridings and 16 French ridings (with Moncton-Centre as a split). That's a breakdown of 65% ENG/33% FR. Shifting another towards the English majority-area shifts the percentages to 67%/31%.
Another factor to include would be the English-speaking population in Bathurst. Under the current riding maps Bathurst is split into two ridings. These ridings have a language split of 65% FR / 32% ENG. It's possible that if Bathurst was combined into one riding with some funky boundaries it could be English-majority, thereby moving the percentages more towards the English column. The riding redistribution commission is bound by rules and regulations pertaining to the drawing of ridings, including
"the effective representation of the English and French linguistic communities".
The Commission had this to say in the Final Report regarding Francophone ridings in 2014:
Quote:
Throughout the province, the Commission was mindful of its responsibility under section 12(2)(b) of the Act to provide effective representation of the English and French linguistic communities. Where a local linguistic minority existed, the Commission considered ways to ensure it was large enough to carry important electoral weight in the riding. This was not always possible, however. The Commission also considered whether use of section 12(4) was warranted in order to provide effective representation.
As the official linguistic community in the numeric minority, the francophone population is naturally vigilant to ensure that its linguistic rights and effective representation are maintained. They advocated both for a) a greater number of ridings with a francophone majority and b) larger francophone majorities in those ridings in which they were the majority. These two aims cannot be accomplished simultaneously unless a) there is an increase in the francophone population or b) the Commission systematically creates majority francophone ridings which are numerically smaller than majority anglophone ridings. Such an approach would require an emphasis on section 12(2)(b) of the Act to the near exclusion of all considerations laid out in the Act, or a systematic use of section 12(4) to advantage majority francophone ridings. The Commission did not hear convincing evidence that this was necessary to ensure effective representation of the province’s francophone population.
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Whether or not Bathurst's English population will be enough to warrant consideration in the future is up in the air, I would assume, along with Campbellton's English population as well.
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tl;dr there's likely to be one more Anglophone riding and one less Francophone riding by the time the 2022 election rolls around.
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Let's start the pipeline debate again, crying all the jobs...what jobs? Once it's built, that's it, the money will go to Alberta and Irving...
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