Winnipeg or Québec - 1 Million - Page 12

Zeej · #**221** Posted **Jul 12, 2023, 4:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by vanatox

Regarding immigration policy:
-14 years is a long period
-Ontario was already growing at record numbers in 2022
- Current levels are not sustainable in the long term if things remain the same.
-Quebec is already increasing its immigration target.
-So many things can happen...

However, I agree it is likely that KWC will considerably narrow the gap with both Winnipeg and Quebec City in the coming years.

I agree that there are many possibilities, but in the spirit of this thread I made my prediction.

I think there's a reasonable chance that Quebec will increase its immigration target again, if it can reclaim some extra jurisdiction from the federal government. It kind of almost doesn't even matter right now because the bulk of Quebec's growth (and Ontario's and BC's) is via non-permanent residents, over which the provincial government has little control. I agree with you that the current trend is not sustainable... probably in the short term. Quebec admitted 68,000 immigrants last year but grew by 180,000 people. Something will give sooner or later (sooner).

That being said, the mantra with this Ontario government is kind of wild right now. Growth for growth's sake seems to be encouraged. The Toronto CMA could add 1 million people in.... 4 years. Surely the region can't handle 2.5 million newcomers in.... 10 years? It's insane. Do they spill over to the neighboring and somewhat connected metros? Do they stay for 5 years and decamp for Alberta?

Centerprovince · #**222** Posted **Jul 12, 2023, 5:04 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by someone123

Maybe, but the growth rate estimated for NS hasn't dropped and immigration to NS has gone way up.

I don't really have opinions on Winnipeg and I'm not arguing that any specific trend will continue in the future. Just pointing out that a lot of the explanations people put forward for what is going on demographically in NS are not consistent with the facts.

During Q2 2021, to Q2 2022, Nova Scotia grew by over 17,000. During that same period, Manitoba grew by under 10,000. I picked that time frame because that is the same time frame as the most recent CMA estimates. Since then, Manitoba’s growth has more then caught up to Nova Scotia’s (in absolute numbers). That will have a huge impact on Winnipeg’s growth, as most of the newcomers settle in the Winnipeg capital region.

ssiguy · #**223** Posted **Jul 12, 2023, 10:46 PM**

The Liberals and NDP {and increasingly the Tories} know that Canada's real estate based economic growth model is unsustainable but all 3 parties will continue the Ponzi Scheme going as it looks good on the GDP and unemployment rate stats and have warped the narrative that now if you don't agree with high immigration rates you are clearly racist and xenophobic. It's instant economy, just add foreigners. BC is the poster child of this form of false economic growth and Ottawa is just following it's unproductive and socio-economic stratifying model. If our crucial housing market begins to faulter you can expect immigration rates to further rise regardless of who is in power.........if you are short of druggies just import more to keep the dealers happy and profitable.

Wigs · #**224** Posted **Jul 13, 2023, 12:00 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeej

If we do a quick and dirty extrapolation of the 2021-22 growth (yes, I am very well aware that this is imperfect), it would take Quebec City roughly 13.5 years to hit 1M, 14 for Winnipeg based on 2021 estimates. KWC was at 575K in 2021. In those same 13.5-14 years at 22.5k/year growth --- and I think that running this exercise with growth rate instead would also support my argument --- KWC reaches 900k, considerably narrowing the gap. It will have joined the size category of both QC and Winnipeg. Adjusting this for even more recent growth trends, particularly as they relate to immigration policy, I think it is very likely that KWC will reach 1M before Quebec City and somewhat likely that it will reach 1M before Winnipeg. If it should fall short of hitting the milestone first, it will still likely leave both in the dust in the decades to follow.

Was this satire?
Because it's bollocks. Rubbish, nonsense.
The statement: Okotoks will reach 2 million by 2050 carries the same weight as your 90 second back of napkin demographic analysis

The race is between Winnipeg and Quebec city. Every other Metro is too far behind to catch up to beat them to the vaunted 1 million.
What happens after that is anyone's guess.

Zeej · #**225** Posted **Jul 13, 2023, 3:17 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wigs

Was this satire?
Because it's bollocks. Rubbish, nonsense.
The statement: Okotoks will reach 2 million by 2050 carries the same weight as your 90 second back of napkin demographic analysis

The race is between Winnipeg and Quebec city. Every other Metro is too far behind to catch up to beat them to the vaunted 1 million.
What happens after that is anyone's guess.

Nope, not satire. And wow dude, you've brought such passion, intensity and of course certainty to the discussion!! Good for you.

You do realize that all this thread is is anyone's guess? Don't lose your lunch over my napkin analysis.

Wigs · #**226** Posted **Jul 13, 2023, 7:05 PM**

It's easy to be certain when Winnipeg (~835k) and Quebec City (~840k) contain hundreds of thousands more people than the other CMAs brought into discussion. Per the 2021 census, besides Hamilton (~785k), the next is KWC (~575k), London (~543k), and Halifax (~465k).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ions_in_Canada

When the 2026 census is released both Winnipeg and Quebec will be at, over, or near 900,000. The other Metros (besides Hamilton) will still be hundreds of thousands of people behind.

As for KWC, the tech sector is getting pummelled in 2023. Shopify gutted 20% of its total workforce. After Microsoft laid off many in January, another round of layoffs have recently been announced at Microsoft Canada (I have an acquaintance that was one of the recent unlucky folks). Alphabet and Meta have laid off thousands in the past 6-8 months. The whole sector is affected. As this is KWC's bread and butter no doubt that will affect population growth.

It's really unfortunate as CBRE had recently listed Toronto as the 3rd best region for tech talent in North America and the fastest growing tech sector (2016-2021) in North America.
https://www.cbre.ca/press-releases/t...alent-rankings

Djeffery · #**227** Posted **Jul 13, 2023, 7:36 PM**

Yeah it's pretty crazy to think KWC will catch any of the three ahead of it to a million. When the topic of 1.5 million comes up, maybe there might be more to say on that though lol.

optimusREIM · #**228** Posted **Jul 13, 2023, 8:15 PM**

Yeah and we are all using projections based on the current trends. I could see a new emerging technology creating a boom in one of those places. Impossible to predict with absolute certainty.

harls · #**229** Posted **Jul 13, 2023, 8:38 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by optimusREIM

Yeah and we are all using projections based on the current trends. I could see a new emerging technology creating a boom in one of those places. Impossible to predict with absolute certainty.

They are both probably close to 900K right now. Any boom today you will probably not see in stats for years. By that time they'll both be over a million.

harls · #**230** Posted **Nov 12, 2023, 2:53 PM**

So, where are we at now?

thebasketballgeek · #**231** Posted **Nov 12, 2023, 5:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by harls

So, where are we at now?

With the rate Winnipeg has been growing it’s not even a contest anymore. Last estimate in 2022 had Winnipeg cma at 870k. There’s a very real possibility Manitoba hits 1,5 mill by 2025 and since roughly 80% of immigrants head to Winnipeg I could see the metro area around 950k as well by 2025. 1 million will happen by late 2026- early 2027 at the current growth rate.

Also, now that the NDP are back in power which is historically the pro-growth party I think the population increase will either remain at the same rate or even increase.

Despite this historic increase in population, the unemployment rate remained steady, the economy seems to be chugging, and housing is relatively affordable. Imo it looks like Winnipeg is on the verge of a boom.

Justanothermember · #**232** Posted **Nov 13, 2023, 10:43 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

With the rate Winnipeg has been growing it’s not even a contest anymore. Last estimate in 2022 had Winnipeg cma at 870k. There’s a very real possibility Manitoba hits 1,5 mill by 2025 and since roughly 80% of immigrants head to Winnipeg I could see the metro area around 950k as well by 2025. 1 million will happen by late 2026- early 2027 at the current growth rate.

Also, now that the NDP are back in power which is historically the pro-growth party I think the population increase will either remain at the same rate or even increase.

Despite this historic increase in population, the unemployment rate remained steady, the economy seems to be chugging, and housing is relatively affordable. Imo it looks like Winnipeg is on the verge of a boom.

Sorry, which estimates are you referring to? I wouldn't mind having a look myself. Also, there is something called a population clock that is showing real-time population fluctuations. Does anyone know if his covers urban area growth or only provinces?

harls · #**233** Posted **Nov 13, 2023, 12:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justanothermember

Sorry, which estimates are you referring to? I wouldn't mind having a look myself.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710013501

MolsonExport · #**234** Posted **Nov 13, 2023, 2:09 PM**

Québec 848,776
Winnipeg 871,778

I would say that they are still relatively neck in neck. There is less than 25K separating them. I think Winnipeg will get there first, but QC should join the woot woot millionnaire ranks within a couple of years thereafter.

Beedok · #**235** Posted **Nov 13, 2023, 2:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by harls

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710013501

Looking at those numbers, Hamilton is definitely catching up to QC. Slower than Winnipeg, but 130K vs 160K is still a fair bit of time for cities of that size. So my money is still on Winnipeg winning the race to 900K, but Hamilton being in the running for the big 1M.