CHICAGO | General Discussions

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

marothisu, thank you for compiling all that info!

Taking a 30,000' view, the main over-arching demo trend within the city, other than continued black flight out of the city altogether, seems to be Hispanics being pushed/pulled from inner neighborhoods to outer neighborhoods.

I guess that's true but my impression of West Englewood is the Latino community pushing east/lakeward from Gage Park and Chicago Lawn. That is a very unusual move for Chicago where groups tend to move outward over time, or teleport into wealthy/gentrifying areas like Lakeview, River North, or Wicker Park. It's also unusual in the sense that departing Black residents have historically left a vacuum in their wake, followed by mass abandonment and demolition. It's nice to see a real demographic transition in West Englewood so we aren't laying waste to a whole section of the city.

But I agree with marothisu that the numbers for downtown/lakeside areas bely the notion that these are "white" areas or "white" growth. There are plenty of Hispanic and Black residents, albeit educated ones, living in those shiny new condos and apartments, especially where they are built on the South or West Side. That's a narrative you don't hear too often. My own condo building in Pilsen has a significant number of Black/Latino residents, I think it probably mirrors the city as a whole.

[Barrelfish]

Thanks all for the really interesting analysis of the census data. Here is my attempt to summarize the big themes - anything I got wrong or missed?

Overall, Chicago city proper grew slightly (+1.9% from 2010-2020). This was enough to maintain its #3 population rank, but was slower than any other top 25 city.

That overall growth number is largely the result of two big opposing trends:
- Significant growth in the core and along the lakefront (on both the north and south sides)
- ...largely offset by slowed-down (but still significant) "black flight" from a handful of south and west-side neighborhoods which suffer from concentrated poverty and crime.

Racial mix stayed at roughly 30/30/30 White/Latino/Black, with 7% Asian, 3% mixed race and other. Racial segregation seems to be trending down across the whole city (non-blacks moving into historically black neighborhoods, non-whites into historically white neighborhoods, etc.)

Zooming out, the Chicago metro area remains #3 in population, but is one of the slowest growing large metros (+144K or +1.7% from 2010-2020). The suburbs in aggregate are growing more slowly than the city, and the growth was slower the farther you go out.

The state outside of the Chicago MSA lost significant population (-162K / -3.8%), so overall state population declined slightly.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Barrelfish

Thanks all for the really interesting analysis of the census data. Here is my attempt to summarize the big themes - anything I got wrong or missed?

Overall, Chicago city proper grew slightly (+1.9% from 2010-2020). This was enough to maintain its #3 population rank, but was slower than any other top 25 city.

That overall growth number is largely the result of two big opposing trends:
- Significant growth in the core and along the lakefront (on both the north and south sides)
- ...largely offset by slowed-down (but still significant) "black flight" from a handful of south and west-side neighborhoods which suffer from concentrated poverty and crime.

Racial mix stayed at roughly 30/30/30 White/Latino/Black, with 7% Asian, 3% mixed race and other. Racial segregation seems to be trending down across the whole city (non-blacks moving into historically black neighborhoods, non-whites into historically white neighborhoods, etc.)

Zooming out, the Chicago metro area remains #3 in population, but is one of the slowest growing large metros (+144K or +1.7% from 2010-2020). The suburbs in aggregate are growing more slowly than the city, and the growth was slower the farther you go out.

The state outside of the Chicago MSA lost significant population (-162K / -3.8%), so overall state population declined slightly.

Basically.

If Chicago could have the sheer scale of Asian immigration that NY or LA typically has, Chicago would have population growth in the bag.

Our paltry Asian numbers just aren’t enough to combat black flight and the slowdown in Mexican immigrations.

South Asians come in large numbers but a large chunk of them wind up in the suburbs.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by ardecila

I guess that's true but my impression of West Englewood is the Latino community pushing east/lakeward from Gage Park and Chicago Lawn. That is a very unusual move for Chicago where groups tend to move outward over time, or teleport into wealthy/gentrifying areas like Lakeview, River North, or Wicker Park. It's also unusual in the sense that departing Black residents have historically left a vacuum in their wake, followed by mass abandonment and demolition. It's nice to see a real demographic transition in West Englewood so we aren't laying waste to a whole section of the city.

Maybe it ties back to the gentrification in places like Wicker Park, Logan Square, Humboldt Park, Avondale, etc? It's possible these people are being priced out of North/West Side neighborhoods and migrating to the South Side in response.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

Maybe it ties back to the gentrification in places like Wicker Park, Logan Square, Humboldt Park, Avondale, etc? It's possible these people are being priced out of North/West Side neighborhoods and migrating to the South Side in response.

It’s possible, but the South side is quite far for people priced out of the North. Austin, Garfield Park, and some suburbs are more likely destinations. Also North side has more Puerto Rican whereas South is more Mexican.

Most likely the children of families who settled on the Southwest side and other new immigrants need space, and the South side has space and mostly affordable prices.

[glowrock]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ Great info. I will be looking at this for days

O’Hare is becoming less white and more Asian
Midway is becoming less white and more Hispanic
Logan Square/Avondale and the lower west side becoming less Hispanic and more white
Some historically black areas like Austin, W Englewood, N Lanwdale, E. Garfield Park turning Hispanic rather quickly

Nothing here surprising, but it’s nice to have actual data quantifying it all.

The census numbers showing a population loss in Avondale, plus the overall increase in non-hispanic white population certainly point to what I've been seeing out here, a marked upswing in overall gentrification, with loss of overall family size per residence being somewhat offset by new, denser construction on the relatively few vacant lots in the area.

Interesting...

Aaron (Glowrock)

[galleyfox]

Some more demographic data posted online.

https://gist.github.com/bread-fixer/...2412bda847de28

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

Some more demographic data posted online.

https://gist.github.com/bread-fixer/...2412bda847de28

I'm glad - now I don't have to post online

[marothisu]

I didn't look at the Indiana counties or Kenosha County for this, but here's the breakdown of changes from 2010 to 2020 for the major racial groups...

Hispanic
- Cook County: +138,016 Hispanic people
- Lake County, IL: +31,975
- Will County: +25,034
- DuPage County: +22,785
- McHenry County: +11,456
- Kane County: +11,205
- Kendall County: +9319
- DeKalb County: +2950
- Kankakee County: +2353
- Grundy County: +1616

Total: +256,709 people


Other
- Cook County: +76,320 other people
- DuPage County: +17,491
- Will County: +14,125
- Lake County, IL: +14,059
- Kane County: +9686
- McHenry County: +7953
- Kendall County: +3798
- Kankakee County: +2869
- DeKalb County: +2855
- Grundy County: +1504

Total: +150,660

Asian
- Cook County: +89,822 Asian people
- DuPage County: +27,189
- Lake County, IL: +14,947
- Will County: +11,958
- Kane County: +3686
- Kendall County: +1222
- McHenry County: +957
- Grundy County: +148
- Kankakee County: +39
- DeKalb County: -120

Total: +149,848


Black
- Will County: +4837 Black people
- Kendall County: +3350
- DuPage County: +3177
- DeKalb County: +2151
- McHenry County: +1028
- Lake County, IL: +258
- Grundy County: +256
- Kane County: -1580
- Kankakee County: -1581
- Cook County: -80,177

Total: -68,288

White
- Kendall County: -466 White people
- Grundy County: -1054
- Kankakee County: -9627
- DeKalb County: -12,576
- McHenry County: -19,925
- Kane County: -21,744
- Will County: -37,159
- Lake County, IL: -50,352
- DuPage County: -54689
- Cook County: -143,115

Total: -350,707


So the Illinois exodus stories were mainly about White people and a bit about Black people and completely ignored the fact that Hispanic, Asian, and Other population outgained the loss of White and Black people?
- Hispanic, Asian, and Other: +557,217 people
- White and Black: -418,995 people

[Chisouthside]

Originally Posted by marothisu

i didn't look at the indiana counties or kenosha county for this, but here's the breakdown of changes from 2010 to 2020 for the major racial groups...

hispanic
- cook county: +138,016 hispanic people
- lake county, il: +31,975
- will county: +25,034
- dupage county: +22,785
- mchenry county: +11,456
- kane county: +11,205
- kendall county: +9319
- dekalb county: +2950
- kankakee county: +2353

total: +255,093 people

asian
- cook county: +89,822 asian people
- dupage county: +27,189
- lake county, il: +14,947
- will county: +11,958
- kane county: +3686
- kendall county: +1222
- mchenry county: +957
- kankakee county: +39
- dekalb county: -120

total: +149,700

other
- cook county: +76,320 other people
- dupage county: +17,491
- will county: +14,125
- lake county, il: +14,059
- kane county: +9686
- mchenry county: +7953
- kendall county: +3798
- kankakee county: +2869
- dekalb county: +2855

total: +149,156

black
- will county: +4837 black people
- kendall county: +3350
- dupage county: +3177
- dekalb county: +2151
- mchenry county: +1028
- lake county, il: +258
- kane county: -1580
- kankakee county: -1581
- cook county: -80,177

total: -68,544

white
- kendall county: -466 white people
- kankakee county: -9627
- dekalb county: -12,576
- mchenry county: -19,925
- kane county: -21,744
- will county: -37,159
- lake county, il: -50,352
- dupage county: -54689
- cook county: -143,115

total: -349,653


so the illinois exodus stories were mainly about white people and a bit about black people and completely ignored the fact that hispanic, asian, and other population outgained the loss of white and black people?
- hispanic, asian, and other: +553,949 people
- white and black: -418,197 people

wow

[marothisu]

Oops, forgot Grundy County which is only barely over 50K people. Post above was updated - point remains very much the same.

[Klippenstein]

Originally Posted by marothisu

[...]here's the breakdown of changes from 2010 to 2020 for the major racial groups...
[...]
Black
- Will County: +4837 Black people
- Kendall County: +3350
- DuPage County: +3177
- DeKalb County: +2151
- McHenry County: +1028
- Lake County, IL: +258
- Grundy County: +256
- Kane County: -1580
- Kankakee County: -1581
- Cook County: -80,177

Total: -68,288

This is interesting to see that most suburban counties gained Black population and Cook County outside of Chicago actually reported a gain in Black population of 4621 people.

According to the Sun-Times, IL as a whole lost significantly less Black people than the City of Chicago.

The state experienced a 3% decrease in its Black population — or about 57,000 Black residents — in the last decade, according to the census.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/8/...al-composition

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Klippenstein

This is interesting to see that most suburban counties gained Black population and Cook County outside of Chicago actually reported a gain in Black population of 4621 people.

According to the Sun-Times, IL as a whole lost significantly less Black people than the City of Chicago.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/8/...al-composition

Right, certainly a lot of people moved to the suburbs.

It's also hard to tell what fraction of the change in white population is due to people choosing to identify as "Other/Mixed" more.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

Right, certainly a lot of people moved to the suburbs.

It's also hard to tell what fraction of the change in white population is due to people choosing to identify as "Other/Mixed" more.

In those 10 IL counties..
White population change: -350,707
Other population change: +150,660

Even if literally every single person part of the "other" group was part of these counties previously and previously identified as white, it wouldn't even come close to telling the story. Certain it can tell a little bit but case in point, there's an absolute minimum of a few hundred thousand white people who just entirely left the metro area.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by marothisu

there's an absolute minimum of a few hundred thousand white people who just entirely left the metro area.

i'd imagine that some of that loss will also be white deaths > white births, so it's not 100% people moving out of the metro area altogether.

but yes, no matter how you slice it, a shit-ton of white people left chicagoland (not exactly a revelation, but still interesting to see the actual numbers in the data).

it's interesting how black-flight is THE demographic challenge of the city proper (with all other groups in the city growing), but at the metro level, it's really white people who are the problem.

white people are always the fucking problem

[the urban politician]

The wait is much shorter getting into Golden Corral lately where I live, so these numbers explain a lot.......

[Chisouthside]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

The wait is much shorter getting into Golden Corral lately where I live, so these numbers explain a lot.......

the suburban chilis will slowly start to be replaced by hot pot and mariscos spots.

[left of center]

Fascinating research, marothisu! Much appreciated by this math and numbers nerd.

The collapsing white population this last decade (2010-2020) has really eclipsed the story of last decade's census (2000-2010) in which the collapsing black population in the Chicago area was the main story. Looks like the black population is slowing down its losses. Hopefully it will stabilize by the next census, and even begin growing after that.

While we are seeing less Mexican/Central & South American immigration in the metro (which I believe is really the story for the US as a whole), it appears its may be getting offset by more Asian immigration/relocation? Does anyone have any numbers on last decade's Asian numbers vs this decade's?

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

the suburban chilis will slowly start to be replaced by hot pot and mariscos spots.

Yes please!

More immigration means more tasty cuisines!

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by left of center

Fascinating research, marothisu! Much appreciated by this math and numbers nerd.

The collapsing white population this last decade (2010-2020) has really eclipsed the story of last decade's census (2000-2010) in which the collapsing black population in the Chicago area was the main story. Looks like the black population is slowing down its losses. Hopefully it will stabilize by the next census, and even begin growing after that.

While we are seeing less Mexican/Central & South American immigration in the metro (which I believe is really the story for the US as a whole), it appears its may be getting offset by more Asian immigration/relocation? Does anyone have any numbers on last decade's Asian numbers vs this decade's?




Yes please!

More immigration means more tasty cuisines!

Regarding immigration and what not, how do you figure? Hispanic growth in these 10 counties was over 256,000. That was the largest group and 105,000 more than the next highest ones (Asian and Other each had 150K growth).

[sentinel]

I secretly wish Gov Pritzker would just go 'fuck it, Illinois will take 170,000 Afghan refugees, and resettle them all throughout the state. Chicago, Rockford, Effingham, Champaign, Peoria, Cairo, you name it." That would be a great way to increase the state's population very quickly, and more importantly, increase the amount of federal money Illinois would receive.