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  #2281  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2018, 1:00 PM
acottawa acottawa is offline
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Originally Posted by J.OT13 View Post
What if, and this is me desperately trying to find a way to ensure this deal goes through, this is a ploy by Melnyk to force Trinity to buy the Sens. The 700 million is strangely close to what Melnyk was asked to fork out for the project, and strangely close to the average price of an NHL team. Whether or not Trinity, or a combination of Trinity and other partners, have enough capital or even have a desire to own the team, is another matter.

Just seems ridiculous to kill this project for a few hundred condos out of thousands proposed all around the site. Makes absolutely no sense unless there is an end game other than spite.
I am very doubtful Trinity has that kind of money. Even if they did, I don’t think the math works for Trinity any better than anyone else. Why would they want to spend over a billion dollars for the right to buy contaminated land? The whole concept needs a real estate market much different than Ottawa’s.

Last edited by acottawa; Nov 24, 2018 at 1:01 PM. Reason: Stupid autocorrect
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  #2282  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2018, 1:59 PM
passwordisnt123 passwordisnt123 is offline
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So you’re saying SSE and Trinity formed a partnership, prepared a bid, submitted it to the NCC, had the NCC review it and announce RVL as a finalist in about a week? That is the only way your math would work. The NCC announced RVL was a finalist in Feb 2015, meaning the partnership existed before then.

Ok, if you don’t like pizza, pick an industry where it would be acceptable for one partner in a partnership to directly compete in the same location, timeframe, etc. I get that Trinity has a lot of fans because they’d say they are going to build a tall building, but it is still an unusual business practice.
Developing property is literally what Trinity does. Were they supposed to halt all business activities until RVL got underway? I think a better analogy than the pizza analogy would be if I sued my FedEx guy because I found out he was also picking up and delivering parcels for my competition across the street.
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  #2283  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2018, 2:14 PM
acottawa acottawa is offline
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Developing property is literally what Trinity does. Were they supposed to halt all business activities until RVL got underway? I think a better analogy than the pizza analogy would be if I sued my FedEx guy because I found out he was also picking up and delivering parcels for my competition across the street.
99% of Trinity’s business (which is mostly big box stores) does not compete with the RVL partnership. Just the Albert street project.

No the fedex guy is not in the pizza business. RVL is a property development partnership, one of the partners is in direct competition with the partnership.
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  #2284  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2018, 2:35 PM
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  #2285  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2018, 2:57 PM
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It really depends on the structure of their partnership. If Melnyk's part is mainly the arena, then I don't see how 900 Albert jeopardizes his investment. If he's involved in the entire condo and commercial portion of LeBreton (which he really has no expertise in), it sounds like he wanted a cut in 900 Albert.

I can see how Trinity is hedging its investments by spearheading the development with a project that isn't mired in political and environmental issues that LeBreton is in. Having something in place before the arena is in might actually be a good thing to increase momentum. Between Trinity's rosy analysis that so much development happening in one place can be viable or Melnyk's pessimism that it can't, I would expect Trinity to have more of a strategy based on studied forecasts and trends. Otherwise, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot on a larger project with its greater risks.

Last edited by Kitchissippi; Nov 25, 2018 at 6:07 PM. Reason: typos and grammar
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  #2286  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2018, 5:01 PM
acottawa acottawa is offline
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It really depends on the structure of their partnership. If Melnyk's part is mainly the arena, then I don't see how 900 Albert jeopardizes his investment. If he's involved in the entire condo and commercial portion of LeBreton (which he really has no expertise in), it sounds like he wanted a cut in 900 Albert.
The stated business model (which I believe is not feasible anyway) is that proceeds from the development will fund the amenities. Development of high-rise buildings in Ottawa happens at a glacial pace, and the Trinity site will absorb the development capacity for the area for some time (probably a decade at least) without having to put any money towards the amenities.

Last edited by acottawa; Nov 24, 2018 at 5:14 PM. Reason: Typo
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  #2287  
Old Posted Nov 24, 2018, 5:16 PM
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  #2288  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2018, 1:18 AM
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Actually owned by the Senators. What a sad state of affairs. 900 Albert and the whole Lebreton project are now in limbo.

The day this man leaves town cannot come soon enough.
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  #2289  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2018, 2:39 AM
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Field of broken dreams: The inside story of how Ottawa's $4B landmark development deal fell to pieces
On Friday, Eugene Melnyk dropped a bombshell, suing his partners in the LeBreton Flats project, which has been called 'one of the most exciting projects' in the city's history

Adrian Humphreys and Barbara Shecter, The National Post
November 23, 2018, 11:46 PM EST


Last August, the Ottawa media was summoned to City Hall to observe the tail end of a private meeting that looked for all the world like it had been cordial and productive. At the head of a gleaming, gilt-edged table sat the city’s mayor, Jim Watson. On his right was John Ruddy, a prominent local real-estate developer. On his left was the billionaire owner of the National Hockey League’s Ottawa Senators, Eugene Melnyk.

It was a public gesture intended to calm the public’s fraying nerves over the future of a grand $4-billion project to develop a swath of unique real estate in the heart of the nation’s capital.

Several blocks west of Parliament Hill, past the Bank of Canada and the Supreme Court and across from the Canadian War Museum, LeBreton Flats sits empty. It is a 21-hectare expanse not far from the shore of the Ottawa River, and for decades it has been the subject of ambition for those frustrated that Ottawa sometimes still feels more like the sleepy timber town it was at its founding than the modern capital of a G7 nation.

Ruddy and Melnyk were partners in the bid that had won the competition to finally redevelop the Flats, the last significant patch of clear land near the city centre and perhaps the best chance to elevate the nation’s capital into something more. Their RendezVous LeBreton Group’s boisterous and ambitious plan had beaten a bid funded by Quebec’s powerful Desmarais family and Guy Laliberté, the founder of Cirque du Soleil. It would, they promised, revitalize the area with retail and housing, and a new home for the struggling Senators, an 18,000-seat arena that would be the showpiece of the development.

Smiles, handshakes and all the right words.

“The LeBreton project is going to be one of the most exciting projects in the history of the city of Ottawa,” Watson told reporters as things wrapped up that day in August. Shovels should be in the ground “as quickly as possible.”

The show of unity was necessary because questions were swirling about the future of the project and the RendezVous group. And behind the smiles, the reality was this project had been in a two-year-long death spiral, the relationship between the partners seated at the mayor’s table that day collapsing irreconcilably.

On Thursday, at a meeting of the National Capital Commission, the Crown corporation responsible for planning and stewarding the capital region, it was finally revealed publicly what deep trouble the LeBreton Flats redevelopment deal was in. The NCC’s chief executive officer, Mark Kristmanson, announced Melnyk’s and Ruddy’s companies had both informed him they had “unresolved issues” and were unable to close a partnership agreement.

The NCC, Kristmanson assured the public — before even breaking the news — had “pulled out all the stops” to move the redevelopments forward over four years. “We are disappointed,” he said.

Reluctant to kill the project then and there, however, the NCC board voted to give the two partners until January to “get their act together,” as Watson put it. Failing that, the NCC gave itself the option to start the process all over again.

But the effort to reunite Melnyk and Ruddy seems an unnecessary pipe dream.

On Friday, Melnyk dropped a bombshell, filing a lawsuit against his partners, the statement of claim filled with remarkable allegations of political interference, conflict of interest and betrayal. John Ruddy fired back, hours later, strongly denying the allegations, which have not yet been tested in court.

Through legal filings, as well as insider accounts from behind the scenes and previously unreleased documents reviewed by the National Post, a picture is emerging of how the monumental deal fell to pieces — a story that blends high-stakes business and politics against the backdrop of two pillars of Canada’s identity: the nation’s capital and the national game.

— — — —

On July 15, 2015, as Eugene Melnyk recovered in Toronto from liver transplant surgery that had lasted 11 hours and saved his life, a small circle of his close confidants clustered around him, having traveled from Ottawa to bother him with business.

Among them were Sheldon Plener, the Senators’ long-time legal counsel and alternate governor with the NHL’s board of governors; Geoff Publow, the Senators’ vice-president of strategic development; and Ken Villazor, an adviser and another alternate governor for the hockey club. Cyril Leeder, the Senators’ long-time president, was patched in by phone.

There was just one thing to discuss: LeBreton Flats, specifically the partnership agreement with Ruddy’s company, Trinity Development Group, that Plener and others had been working on while Melnyk was out of commission.

According to sources familiar with events, the summer before, staff from the office of foreign affairs minister John Baird, the Ottawa West MP who was also the minister responsible for the NCC, as well as representatives of the commission itself, had courted Melnyk to anchor the development. (Baird said he doesn’t recall whether such a meeting took place.)

The idea was enticing to Melnyk given that the Senators’ current home, 30 minutes outside the capital in Kanata, has long been a problem — often blamed for the team’s attendance woes. The Senators is one of the few NHL teams to play in the suburbs and NHL commissioner Gary Bettman has said a downtown arena is “vital to the future” of the franchise.

“It was important to the Senators organization that we be part of the LeBreton Flats redevelopment,” Melnyk said in an interview with the National Post.

But in the year following initial talks about the development, as Melnyk’s company, Capital Sports Management Inc. (CSMI), was putting together a bid, Melnynk says, “It’s no secret that I was very sick.”

He tapped Leeder as the point person for the deal, who assembled a team and spoke with several builders — including John Ruddy.

Ruddy, trained as an architect, moved into retail development and founded Trinity Development Group in 1992. Neither is he a stranger to arenas: As the majority shareholder of Ottawa Sports and Entertainment Group, he owns the Canadian Football League’s Ottawa Redblacks, the Ottawa Fury Soccer Club and the Ontario Hockey League’s Ottawa 67’s.

He was also developing a 1.2-hectare property directly adjacent to LeBreton Flats, known as the 900 Albert Street project.

It seemed a smart fit, since Melnyk — who made his money in medical publishing, specialty pharmaceuticals and horse racing — had not been involved in a real estate project anywhere close to this magnitude.

Further, Ruddy was well connected in Ottawa and seen as affable and well liked, while Melnyk might best be described as a quixotic figure. In March, following Melnyk’s remarks that if game attendance didn’t improve he’d move the team elsewhere, a Senators fan crowdfunded $10,000 to put up billboards in the city. The message: #MELNYKOUT.

— — — —

At the southwest corner of Booth and Wellington, on the edge of a flat, empty expanse of LeBreton Flats, there is a small fountain and a handful of interpretive signs, at once a memorial to what came before and a wistful hint of the future.

In 1820, John LeBreton, a retired army captain, bought the land with an eye for a profitable real estate flip. Although his name remains attached to the plot, he alienated civic authorities and was accused of land speculation.

In 1900, a devastating fire gutted the wooden houses and thriving lumber industry on the Flats, the signs explain, and an industrial, working-class neighbourhood was rebuilt.

Then, under Prime Minister Mackenzie King, redeveloping the plot became a federal project. After a very long study, an urban planner from France reimagined Ottawa as a true capital city in 1949. The renewal of the blighted LeBreton neighbourhood was an important part of the remake.

From 1962 until 1966, the federal government systematically expropriated the land and the buildings were torn down. The property was placed in the care of the NCC.

Fifty years have passed, leaving a fallow brownfield with stop and start plans and piecemeal construction, some of great significance, such as the Canadian War Museum and National Holocaust Monument.

Today, one of the interpretive signs in LeBreton Flats proclaims its future as a new, thriving community. You can see that happening around you, it says.

Looking up from the sign, a reader would be forgiven doubts, seeing stretches of a wide, empty expanse of weeds poking through a thin layer of snow, with a few tall spruce in the distance.

In 2014, the NCC made it a renewed priority.

— — — —

There was some drama in the NCC’s call to the private sector for imaginative proposals on the use of LeBreton Flat that year, already assured Melnyk was waiting in the wings.

“The redevelopment of LeBreton Flats offers a unique opportunity to create a dynamic new community in the heart of the Capital,” the NCC said in a splash on its website.

After whittling proposals down, first to four, then to two, in April 2016, the commission named CSMI-Trinity’s submission the first-ranked bid.

The “world-class event centre” — the arena as the home of the Senators — was promoted as the anchor, with promotional material heralding it all as a future “destination of national and international significance.”

“A community is reborn and it shines like never before,” a promotional video from the NCC enthused. There was hope something special was underway.

Melnyk, however, had graver things on his mind. He needed a new liver, within “a week at most,” his doctor at Toronto General Hospital had told him. On May 14, 2015, it was Leeder who delivered a plea at a hastily called press conference for someone to volunteer as a live liver donor.

The plea was answered and, on May 19, 2015, the grueling surgery left Melnyk weak — physically and mentally — but slowly on the mend.

It was at this point that Melnyk was briefed in Toronto on what had gone on with LeBreton Flats while he was sick.

Melnyk wasn’t impressed, according to those familiar with the situation. He wondered why Trinity’s position was boosted in the deal from the early discussions and he worried about the impact of the 900 Albert development on LeBreton. He told his team to improve the deal.

A six-page memorandum of understanding was eventually cobbled out, a document reviewed by the Post, and signed six days later by Ruddy, Melnyk and Leeder. The agreement between CSMI and Trinity said each had a 50 percent interest as Master Land Developer and responsibility for half of all equity.

That document allowed work to continue to submit an official bid together, but left a final partnership agreement unresolved. At the time, Melnyk didn’t have it in him to fight for more.

As intense community consultations came together and as Melnyk regained strength and ramped up his work schedule, the two business partners at the head of the project were getting further apart.

“After I began recovering my physical and mental capacities, which took several months, I realized that our partnership with Trinity had changed dramatically while I was away,” Melnyk said.

He had growing concerns about Trinity’s priorities.

As the LeBreton plan wallowed, Trinity’s 900 Albert project trotted along. The proposed density seemed to grow each time Melnyk heard about it, he complained, and now there was a three-tower complex of 65, 56 and 27 stories — two of which would be the tallest buildings in Ottawa.

By July 2016, just three months after being named the first-ranked proposal, CSMI, Trinity and their blue-chip lawyers were already at an impasse and in secret mediation to settle their differences.

There would be no true reconciliation, but both sides trundled on.

Internally, Melnyk took Leeder off the LeBreton file and replaced him with Publow, and, in January 2017, fired him from the Senators organization.

Contacted by the Post, Leeder declined to comment on “the sad state of affairs.”

At a contentious meeting with the NCC on Sept. 29, 2017, Ruddy gave an update on recent city hall approvals of his 900 Albert venture: three towers on a retail podium with a projected density of 1.75 million square feet of space. CSMI learned that Trinity sold off part of its interest in 900 Albert and brought in two new partners.

InterRent Real Estate Investment Trust took a one-third interest in 900 Albert for $14.2 million in August 2017, according to the lawsuit. “This represented an approximately 30 per cent increase on the previous value of the land,” the suit states, suggesting the proximity to the LeBreton project was boosting its value, providing “considerable cachet.”

Ruddy was proud of what he was creating at 900 Albert, and it showed at the meeting, CSMI said. The Albert development, Melnyk and his team noted with alarm, was taller and larger than expected and coming to market earlier.

Even the NCC seemed to see a problem.

At the meeting, after seeing artist renderings of 900 Albert, Marco Zanetti, the NCC’s real estate specialist and lead negotiator, allegedly said Trinity’s project will “take the wind out of the sails of LeBreton,” according to the lawsuit, filed by Melnyk on Friday.

Melnyk alleges Trinity was working behind his back to push and finance 900 Alberta at LeBreton’s expense.

The joint venture failed “because of an egregious conflict of interest on the part of Trinity and its principal, John Ruddy, that ought to have been identified to CSMI and resolved but instead only worsened over time,” the lawsuit alleges.

At a meeting with the NCC on Jan. 5, 2018, the commission was formally warned in a prepared statement that CSMI was re-assessing its involvement because of the “size and scope” of 900 Albert.

Despite CSMI’s concerns, the NCC, the lawsuit alleges, pushed the parties to move forward, telling both CSMI and Trinity to settle the outstanding issues of their partnership in 48 hours, a deadline that was never met.

“NCC turned a blind eye to CSMI’s concerns,” the suit claims, applying pressure even though it knew Melnyk’s group was still investigating its viability.

Both Trinity and CSMI commissioned studies to back their position on what the overlapping projects might mean to LeBreton.

In an April, 2018, report prepared for CSMI, PriceWaterhouseCoopers questioned the ability of the region to support both projects. The developments would “directly complete with one another,” it says.

Trinity offered a market study, prepared by Urbanation, that was far more optimistic, saying the local economic slowdown due to cutbacks in public sector spending was over and Ottawa was in a “rebound.”

What Melnyk saw, however, was a competing, potentially project-killing development right next door being pushed forward by his own partner.

“The experts told us 900 Albert would have a devastating financial impact on LeBreton,” Melnyk said. “We repeatedly raised this issue with Trinity, the NCC and city officials.”

— — — —

As the partnership was collapsing, there were efforts to salvage what was still being touted as the most significant development project in the nation’s capital in a generation.

From Melnyk’s side, in October, there was an appeal to the mayor’s office for intervention, Melnyk’s lawsuit alleges.

The alleged response is remarkable.

Watson was no doubt concerned with the disarray in such a marquee project in his city. The mayor’s office was also allegedly concerned about what it might mean for him politically if the deal collapsed during the “election cycle,” the lawsuit claims.

The mayor’s office responded to the Melnyk group’s concerns with “threats and intimidation,” the lawsuit alleges.

“Serge Arpin, the chief of staff to Mayor Watson, informed CSMI’s Chief Operating Officer that any attempt to withdraw from the LeBreton Project during the current election cycle… would be viewed as a direct attack on the mayor’s political career and re-election effort,” the lawsuit claims

“It would result in a ‘severing’ of any relationship between between Mayor Watson and Melnyk and CSMI. CSMI interpreted this as a thinly veiled threat that Mayor Watson would not only withdraw support for any new arena project, but would oppose any initiatives by Melnyk or CSMI for the duration of his mayoralty,” the suit claims.

The mayor’s office declined a request to respond to the allegations. “As the matter is before the courts, Mayor Watson and Serge Arpin are unable to comment,” spokesperson Livia Belcea said in an email.

Melnyk was already concerned about what was happening in political backrooms, his people say.

Graham Bird, who served as project manager with his consulting and property management company, Graham Bird Associates, had allegedly met at least five times with city officials about the project without notifying CSMI.

CSMI only learned of the meetings during a June 11 meeting with Bird and Brendan McGuinty, who has held a number of political positions and has worked as volunteer for Watson, and as an adviser to his brother, former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty.

McGuinty “has been associated with Trinity in an unknown capacity (whether as an employee, consultant, lobbyist or adviser has never been made clear) since at least 2015,” according to the lawsuit.

On July 11, 2018, Ottawa city council approved Trinity’s “controversial” plan to develop 900 Albert “with unprecedented density and height,” including the tallest building in Ottawa. “Trinity and Ruddy were able to obtain this political coup through the efforts of McGuinty, who advocated for Trinity’s interests with the City and the mayor without being registered as a lobbyist, and Bird, a former Ottawa City Councillor,” the lawsuit claims.

In an email, McGuinty told the Post “the claim is 100 per cent false.”

The allegations in the lawsuit, not yet tested in court, make it difficult to believe Melnyk and Ruddy will jointly put a ceremonial shovel in the ground at LeBreton Flats, let alone erect a glittering arena and a retail and condo palace.

Melnyk confirmed as much to the Post.

“As an organization, we just didn’t have the confidence and the comfort that we would actually be building a viable project for the city at LeBreton, instead of a white elephant.”

In a statement Friday, Ruddy was equally forceful. “Trinity strongly denies the allegation in CSMI’s lawsuit and intends to vigorously defend the claim. For over 30 years, I have sought to make a contribution to the communities in which Trinity operates, and in particular my hometown of Ottawa. I will always find ways to build Ottawa up and continue to make a contribution to our great City.”

The NCC clings to the dream, at least officially. But the starkness of the situation is no doubt settling in.

As NCC board member Aditya Jha, a plainspoken entrepreneur, said at Thursday’s meeting of the NCC, the whole LeBreton venture has been “so long on process and patience, and we are kind of short on reality.”

— With files from Maura Forrest in Ottawa and Tyler Dawson in Edmonton.

• Email: [email protected]
• Email: [email protected]

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/fie...in-failing-4b-ottawa-development-project
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  #2290  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2018, 11:57 AM
Awatto Awatto is offline
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A family member who is close to the deal, a sane and rational deal-maker not tied to either Ruddy or Melnyk, simply said the blame lies with Melnynk. They will savage the City and NCC all the time, but said it’s not appropriate in this case. Simply said, their comments yesterday to me repeated what I had previously heard from a leading figure in Ottawa city government: Melnyk is unfortunately not stable. I feel for Ottawa and Sens fans. LeBreton Flats, or at least this project, is done.

Where now for the Sens? Does Melnyk sell to out of town buyer and the team relocates, or to an owner who can make this work in Ottawa. I presume the league will have a say on what happens here. Unless Melnyk keep the team and the CTC remains home - but that feels unlikely.

Last edited by Awatto; Nov 25, 2018 at 12:31 PM.
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  #2291  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2018, 5:20 PM
corynv corynv is offline
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A family member who is close to the deal, a sane and rational deal-maker not tied to either Ruddy or Melnyk, simply said the blame lies with Melnynk. They will savage the City and NCC all the time, but said it’s not appropriate in this case. Simply said, their comments yesterday to me repeated what I had previously heard from a leading figure in Ottawa city government: Melnyk is unfortunately not stable. I feel for Ottawa and Sens fans. LeBreton Flats, or at least this project, is done.

Where now for the Sens? Does Melnyk sell to out of town buyer and the team relocates, or to an owner who can make this work in Ottawa. I presume the league will have a say on what happens here. Unless Melnyk keep the team and the CTC remains home - but that feels unlikely.
recent precedent of the NHL will try to keep the team in the city as long as it's viable. And there are legitimate groups that could buy the team here already. Atlanta's situation was a bit unique, as they were basically being kicked out of their arena, and there was no suitable arena they could move to. (obviously there was more to it than that, but that was one of the major points)
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  #2292  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2018, 6:26 PM
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recent precedent of the NHL will try to keep the team in the city as long as it's viable. And there are legitimate groups that could buy the team here already. Atlanta's situation was a bit unique, as they were basically being kicked out of their arena, and there was no suitable arena they could move to. (obviously there was more to it than that, but that was one of the major points)
The NHL gains nothing by relocating a franchise. They'll do everything in their power to retain the Senators in Ottawa.
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  #2293  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2018, 8:03 PM
acottawa acottawa is offline
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The NHL gains nothing by relocating a franchise. They'll do everything in their power to retain the Senators in Ottawa.
I know that is a prevailing view around here, but I am unclear why that is. It is a have-not team that costs the league money, it is a tiny TV market, and the fan-base is super fickle. There are no potential local buyers, the city’s largest employer is highly hostile to hockey, and no public help for building an arena. The ongoing belief that a mystery out-of-town billionaire that wants to sink a billion dollars is having a pretty toxic effect on the city. Yeah, all things being equal they would prefer the team stay in Ottawa, but I am not sure all things are equal.
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Old Posted Nov 25, 2018, 8:15 PM
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I know that is a prevailing view around here, but I am unclear why that is. It is a have-not team that costs the league money, it is a tiny TV market, and the fan-base is super fickle. There are no potential local buyers, the city’s largest employer is highly hostile to hockey, and no public help for building an arena. The ongoing belief that a mystery out-of-town billionaire that wants to sink a billion dollars is having a pretty toxic effect on the city. Yeah, all things being equal they would prefer the team stay in Ottawa, but I am not sure all things are equal.
There was actually an offer given to Melnyk over the summer from a group including Guy Laliberte, Melnyk didn't want to sell. And not to mention that while bidding for the flats redevelopment that group did say they'd like to buy the sens as well. And there have also been some rumors going around about Ruddy/OSEG wanting to buy the sens as well. (recent rumors, i might add)

And while yes the Ottawa area is a small market, the team hasn't always been a taker. For a good while we were selling out the CTC, especially in the mid 00's when the sens were a power house. But even if Ottawa is a small media market compared to a city like Phoenix, Ottawa has a much higher concentration of hockey fans than Phoenix, where hockey is almost non-existent.


https://www.thefourthperiod.com/pagnotta/senators-receive-offer-for-franchise/
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  #2295  
Old Posted Nov 25, 2018, 9:03 PM
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I know that is a prevailing view around here, but I am unclear why that is.
NHL teams lose value when they relocate because a relocation shows a weakness and susceptibility in the NHL's franchise business model. An expansion franchise is able to collect $500M+ but a relocation is likely going to garner less than that, which lowers team values further.

That, and relocating to another market that could pay a full franchise fee loses the league potential expansion revenue. Why move to Quebec City when they're clearly willing (but unable) to pay the expansion fee?

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It is a have-not team that costs the league money, it is a tiny TV market, and the fan-base is super fickle.
Mostly because the owner is cheap and the arena isn't actually in Ottawa.

A Canadian TV market is less important than an American one because the current Canadian national TV deal is effectively maxed out (whereas the American deal has not met anything near to a potential ceiling).

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There are no potential local buyers, the city’s largest employer is highly hostile to hockey, and no public help for building an arena.
Buyers don't have to be local - they just have to want to retain the team in the local market. Melnyk isn't exactly Ottawa born-and-bred...

I have a difficult time imagining the Federal government and public service is hostile to hockey or the NHL, and new buildings don't require public funds to be built as long as the potential business case is there to build something beyond a simple arena.
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Old Posted Nov 25, 2018, 10:10 PM
acottawa acottawa is offline
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NHL teams lose value when they relocate because a relocation shows a weakness and susceptibility in the NHL's franchise business model. An expansion franchise is able to collect $500M+ but a relocation is likely going to garner less than that, which lowers team values further.

That, and relocating to another market that could pay a full franchise fee loses the league potential expansion revenue. Why move to Quebec City when they're clearly willing (but unable) to pay the expansion fee?


Mostly because the owner is cheap and the arena isn't actually in Ottawa.

A Canadian TV market is less important than an American one because the current Canadian national TV deal is effectively maxed out (whereas the American deal has not met anything near to a potential ceiling).


Buyers don't have to be local - they just have to want to retain the team in the local market. Melnyk isn't exactly Ottawa born-and-bred...

I have a difficult time imagining the Federal government and public service is hostile to hockey or the NHL, and new buildings don't require public funds to be built as long as the potential business case is there to build something beyond a simple arena.
Hockey is excluded from the various public service award programs (you can get a $50 gift card to the LCBO but not a $50 hockey ticket). Public servants are also banned from both accepting and offering hospitality at hockey games when hospitality of an equivalent amount at restaurants and bars is permitted. That is pretty hostile.

How does a relocation diminish the value of the franchises more than a fire sale (which seems to be what people want from Melnyk)?

The NHL has really only opposed relocations when the proposed relocations are from small markets to large markets (what Jim Balsilie kept trying to do). They have not (nor have other professional sports) opposed relocations in general.

There is nothing wrong with an out of town buyer, but they tend to lack a commitment to the city as we have seen with Melnyk. The buy-in cost for the Ottawa Senators is very high (assuming a new arena) for a random rich guy that wants to own a hockey team.
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Old Posted Nov 25, 2018, 10:26 PM
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Hockey is excluded from the various public service award programs (you can get a $50 gift card to the LCBO but not a $50 hockey ticket). Public servants are also banned from both accepting and offering hospitality at hockey games when hospitality of an equivalent amount at restaurants and bars is permitted. That is pretty hostile.
These are not hockey-specific rules, though. They're government-wide and affect more than just the Senators.

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How does a relocation diminish the value of the franchises more than a fire sale (which seems to be what people want from Melnyk)?
A relocation diminishes the valuation of all NHL franchises because:
  • The sale price is potentially lower than an expansion fee;
  • Relocating a franchise out of a market is the equivalent of the NHL saying: "This market didn't work, we failed, and our product is not a solid investment."

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The NHL has really only opposed relocations when the proposed relocations are from small markets to large markets (what Jim Balsilie kept trying to do). They have not (nor have other professional sports) opposed relocations in general.
Balsille's problem was that he tried to elbow his way into an exclusive groups of wealthy owners by playing games in public. He subsequently got burned for it. That and the fact that the NHL doesn't gain anything by relocating the Predators to Hamilton.

I'm fairly certain the NHL would prefer to avoid relocations under all circumstances if at all possible. Bettman has effectively said this in the past and the NHL has gone above and beyond to continue operating franchises in their current markets (Arizona, Buffalo, Ottawa...) despite numerous problems.

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There is nothing wrong with an out of town buyer, but they tend to lack a commitment to the city as we have seen with Melnyk. The buy-in cost for the Ottawa Senators is very high (assuming a new arena) for a random rich guy that wants to own a hockey team.
There's no guarantee of an out-of-town buyer lacking that commitment, though. The Lightning owner is not from Tampa but has put millions into redevelopment projects into the arena and around it. Locals love him for it. The new Hurricanes owner is not from Raleigh and is putting money and effort into the team at a pretty good clip. The Pegulas are not from Buffalo, etc. This list is pretty extensive.

The buy-in cost is probably fairly low, IMO, because I can't imagine the NHL BoG are too fond of Melnyk right now for a number of different reasons. Any potential owner of the Sens that isn't completely awful is going to be looked up favourably by the BoG, I would imagine. At the end of the day you're still buying an NHL franchise in Canada - they print money if you know what you're doing and are willing to invest in your product.

The NHL is only going to sell to someone who can get an arena built at Lebreton, and that plan will factor in to any sale from Melnyk to a new owner.
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  #2298  
Old Posted Nov 26, 2018, 1:05 AM
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The NHL is only going to sell to someone who can get an arena built at Lebreton, and that plan will factor in to any sale from Melnyk to a new owner.
You think they can find a buyer and close the deal before the two month deadline?

Based on reports, it seems the NHL is taking Melnyk's side. Doesn't matter who owns the team, they don't seem to be keen on working with Ruddy.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-unhappy-state-senators-arena-situation/

Melnyk and the NHL seem to think they can salvage the deal by finding a new partner, but I don't think the NCC will want to pursue the project with Melnyk.

As much as I wanted to see this project go through, I don't see anyway it can be salvaged considering where all the players stand.
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Old Posted Nov 26, 2018, 2:59 AM
acottawa acottawa is offline
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These are not hockey-specific rules, though. They're government-wide and affect more than just the Senators.
That's true, but it principally affects the senators because they are the only top-tier professional sports team in the capital. And as I said earlier professional sports are treated separately from all other hospitality regardless of value. This sequesters a huge segment of the Ottawa market from a core business line of professional sports.

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A relocation diminishes the valuation of all NHL franchises because:
  • The sale price is potentially lower than an expansion fee;
  • Relocating a franchise out of a market is the equivalent of the NHL saying: "This market didn't work, we failed, and our product is not a solid investment."
]

That isn't how the NHL has viewed relocations in the past. That is not how every other sports league in North America views relocations. The NFL had no team in Los Angeles for decades. Is that because their product wasn't solid? The number one cause of relocations in most leagues has been stadium/arena funding disputes. I guess Ottawa doesn't have to worry about that.

The sale price of most teams are going to be lower than the current expansion fees, regardless of whether the sale is related to a relocation or not. That is why only very affluent cities were considered for the current expansion phase.

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The buy-in cost is probably fairly low, IMO, because I can't imagine the NHL BoG are too fond of Melnyk right now for a number of different reasons. Any potential owner of the Sens that isn't completely awful is going to be looked up favourably by the BoG, I would imagine. At the end of the day you're still buying an NHL franchise in Canada - they print money if you know what you're doing and are willing to invest in your product.

The NHL is only going to sell to someone who can get an arena built at Lebreton, and that plan will factor in to any sale from Melnyk to a new owner.
They only way the buy in cost is low is if Melnyk is forced to sell the team way below book value (which hurts all the team valuations and the BoG will not want to do). Book value plus a new arena is a billion dollars, which is a very high price to pay for a small market team that has never been profitable. Your entire premise is based on the belief that there is an out of town billionaire who wants to drop a billion dollars. If there isn't then we have an Arizona style dead-franchise walking in Kanata or Melnyk (or another owner) going to the board looking for other options.
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Old Posted Nov 26, 2018, 3:38 AM
corynv corynv is offline
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That isn't how the NHL has viewed relocations in the past. That is not how every other sports league in North America views relocations.
Has there ever been a NHL relocated behind of Arena funding issues? Winnipeg and QC moved because of the weaker dollar, not because of arena issues. Atlanta not because of Arena Funding, but because of management issues, and being kicked out of their arena. They would have either had to go into hiatus if they wanted to keep playing in Atlanta while a new NHL level arena was being built. Hartford i'm not entirely sure why the moved so can't comment there.

Basically most relocations that happen in the NHL happen apart from arena funding. And idc about what happens in other leagues, since this is an NHL issue and we need to look at how the NHL has handled things, not other leagues.
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