The future of Hamilton's public transit

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

Transit area rating showdown looms

Hamilton Spectator
By Matthew Van Dongen
http://www.thespec.com/news-story/52...howdown-looms/

The debate over who pays for transit in amalgamated Hamilton is shifting into high gear.

Expect the usual suspects to battle this on the basis of not wanting to pay for the improvements to lower city transit (that they voted down)...

...rather than realizing it's a way to help bring MORE TRANSIT to the areas they argue have been left out due to focus on B-line LRT.

[thistleclub]

The Spectator's View: Area rating not sustainable for transit
(Hamilton Spectator, Howard Elliott, Jan 30 2015)

Hamilton Councillor Sam Merulla wants city staff to report on adding transit services to the regular tax levy, which would mean all taxpayers pay for the HSR.

Coming on the heels of the disappointing and polarizing vote to kill the downtown transit-only lane experiment, some question Merulla's motivation, but the truth is he's right. Transit can't stay area rated indefinitely. The difficult discussion about how best to pay for it going forward has to happen sooner or later.

Since municipal amalgamation, transit services have been area rated, which means suburban and rural taxpayers pay varying tax rates based on the availability of transit services. When the previous council reached a historic compromise agreement on other area-rated services in 2011, transit was left out of the standardization agreement, probably because councillors knew how contentious it would be.

That may have been fine then. But transit is an essential service in a modern, sustainable city, and we all have a stake in helping it thrive. That may be a difficult sell in some areas, but it's the truth nonetheless.

[thistleclub]

Unraveling the Question of Who Subsidizes Whom (Raise the Hammer, Ryan McGreal, Jan 30 2015)

[thistleclub]

Council to consider radical bus boost
(Hamilton Spectator, Matthew Van Dongen, Feb 5 2015)

A city proposal to radically boost bus service over the next decade kicks off with annual fare increases, an HSR budget bump of $6 million and 50 new hires over two years.

The 10-year strategy is an unapproved working document, said new HSR director Dave Dixon, but meant to show councillors what is required to grow ridership that is stagnant at around 21 million.

The presentation, now online at hamilton.ca, shows trips per capita have actually dropped slightly in Hamilton since 2006 – while most comparable southern Ontario cities have roared ahead by seven to 44 per cent.

To beef up bus frequency and service across the city, the HSR needs more cash and more buses, according to the report, which recommends adding 25 more in this year's budget.

Read it in full here.


Also, The Public Record has organized a transit-focused panel session tonight. Let's Talk Transit: A Discussion Event starts at 7:30pm at Mills Hardware (95 King St. E.). Admission is free.

[HillStreetBlues]

I think some more perspective is needed as far as the proposed fare hikes go. I never understand why the Spec makes the claims it does, instead of doing a bit of extra research for their readers.

1) The Spectator article says that “[f]ares have not gone up in Hamilton since 2010” and “an adult ticket price would only jump 25 cents to $2.25.”

2) A twenty-five cent hike is 12.5 percent. Since 2010, the Consumer Price Index has gone up 8%.

3) An increase from $2.55 to $3.00 is 17.6%, so more than double the rate of increases to the CPI over the last five years.

A few thoughts:

-What’s our farebox recovery? If riders’ fares are proposed to go up between 12 and 18 percent, how much will contributions from general revenue go up by?
-It would be preferable for at least some improvement to precede fare hikes, rather than follow them. As noted, service has gotten progressively worse, and now the proposal is to increase the amount charged for it for the relatively fewer people still choosing to use HSR.

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

What’s our farebox recovery?

Budget R/C Ratio
2010: 48.10%
2011: 46.68%
2012: 46.55%
2013: 46.20%
2014: 45.30%
2015: 44.58%

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

If riders’ fares are proposed to go up between 12 and 18 percent, how much will contributions from general revenue go up by?

The report recommends $6M annualized ($5.7M from fare increases and $300K from a levy) to be phased over two years — 25¢ in 2015, 10¢ annually in 2016/2017/2018 and increasing by at least CPI thereafter. (They appear to anticipate turbulence: Page 93 shows a $580,000 drop in farebox revenue for 2015.)

The report also recommends the addition of 25 buses to the fleet this year at a capital cost of $15.6M ($3M from development charges, $5.7M from transit vehicle replacement reserve and a $6.9M funding blank spot that they hope Metrolinx will fill in).

[HillStreetBlues]

Thanks thistleclub! (I am having déja vu.)

I missed the link to the report; I will peruse it now.

[HillStreetBlues]

I find the proposed changes to the service standards interesting. The presentation proposes retaining the service standard of bus service within 400 meters of 90% of the population, but also calls for a minimum productivity level of 25 passenger boardings per service hour during weekday peak periods, and 15 during other periods.

According to the 2011 Operational Review, there are a number of lines that do not achieve 15 passenger boardings per service hour: 12 Wentworth, 16 Ancaster, 18 Waterdown, 44 Rymal, 52 Dundas Local. Some don’t even come close to 15, and others do not achieve 25 on average (7 Locke, 43 Stone Church, 58 Stoney Creek). The way the proposed service standards are stated, it seems pretty clear to me that they would result in cuts to non-peak service on these routes and maybe others which are under-utilized.

However, the presentation then identifies frequency gaps on these very lines that seem to clearly not meet their proposed minimum productivity, so I’m a bit confused by that.

[HillStreetBlues]

For some reason, the Spec article also did not mention the proposed fare hike for passes: from $87 to $99 a month for adults (13.8%); from $71 to $74.80 a month for students (5.4%); and from $20.50 to $25.50 a month for seniors (24.4%). Following that, the adult pass would increase each and every year for the subsequent three by over 4% every year; the student pass by around 3% every year; and the senior’s pass by nearly 20% every year. Thereafter, passes would be adjusted by CPI “as a minimum” (which I guess implies that they are anticipating higher-than-inflationary fare increases forever).

The reason the senior’s pass is to increase so dramatically is because an extremely low fare multiplier is identified (only 13 trips are required to match the cost of a monthly pass). But the pass multiplier here is the highest in the peer group the presentation uses, at 44 trips. After the fare hikes, the multiplier will continue to be 44. I wonder why we they wouldn’t propose hiking passes a bit less to change their relation to individual fares.

Before HSR, the transit service I used was Grand River Transit, which now charges $76 a month for its monthly pass (and, depending on where in the Region you are, probably offers better service). That’s in comparison with a $2.14 price for a ticket: after 35 trips, the pass was the right choice (if you do not take into account the benefit of the transit tax credit, which is variable by person). For someone who is able to commute by transit, it’s an easy choice to make. In Hamilton, to make your pass worthwhile, you need to actually commute to your job each and every day, plus take a few trips by transit on weekends. If you live in an area where peak service is suitable, but off-peak may be dismal, the logical thing to do is buy tickets, and try your best to use the bus as infrequently as possible. “Never” would be optimal.

I have a coworker whose home is three hundred meters from a B-Line stop and whose office is a similar distance from another B-Line stop. She drives, because taking transit is “$87 a month” and parking is “only $60 a month.” It seems to me that these are exactly the types of riders we should be trying to attract, but pushing the pass price as high as we can probably won’t do it. Later this year, if this proposal is accepted, taking the bus will cost “a hundred dollars a month!” and to people doing incomplete math (most people), driving will seem even cheaper than it did before.

[oldcoote]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

I have a coworker whose home is three hundred meters from a B-Line stop and whose office is a similar distance from another B-Line stop. She drives, because taking transit is “$87 a month” and parking is “only $60 a month.” It seems to me that these are exactly the types of riders we should be trying to attract, but pushing the pass price as high as we can probably won’t do it. Later this year, if this proposal is accepted, taking the bus will cost “a hundred dollars a month!” and to people doing incomplete math (most people), driving will seem even cheaper than it did before.

Good point. The inexpensive availability of downtown parking makes transit an obstacle. Of course, drivers fail to measure the added fuel and insurance costs in favour of convenience.

[mattgrande]

Originally Posted by oldcoote

Good point. The inexpensive availability of downtown parking makes transit an obstacle. Of course, drivers fail to measure the added fuel and insurance costs in favour of convenience.

With that in mind: https://twitter.com/JoeyColeman/stat...34322377924610

[thistleclub]

From the City of Hamilton’s Transportation Master Plan (May 2007):

“Due to financial constraints, the major theme of transit in Hamilton over the past decade has been cost-efficiency… Despite reducing service hours and increasing fares, HSR has managed to retain about the same level ridership it had in 1994. However, HSR has lost out on the opportunity of growing transit ridership with population growth…. HSR ridership has not kept pace with population growth due to development trends on the periphery of the urban area that are not transit-supportive.”

1993: 21,526,000 passengers / service area population 401,500 = 53.61 rides per capita
2013: 21,817,841 passengers / service area population 487,000 = 44.80 rides per capita

[thistleclub]

Hamilton app developers hope bus locations just a tap away
(Hamilton Spectator, Dave Churchill, Feb 6 2015)

The City of Hamilton is working toward a test run of a new phone app that tells commuters exactly when the next bus will roll up to their location.

The new app — called BusTap — could be ready for a test in downtown Hamilton in about a month, say its software developers.

The BusTap technology works similar to a credit card tap at the supermarket checkout counter, said Nathan Jervis, one of the two Hamilton men behind the app.

"We thought it would be cool," said Jervis, technical director of BusTap. "You already have the HSR call-in line. We thought this would be the next logical step."

Users of the app would tap their phone on a small sign at HSR stops and get connected with the city's transit website, including real-time information about city buses.

The cost for the user will be free if they have a data plan and only a penny or two for those who don't, says Jervis.

He and business director Kevin Archibald are scheduled to meet next week with Ward 2 Coun. Jason Farr and HSR director of transit David Dixon.

Archibald is hoping for a trial run of about 100 bus stops throughout downtown and at the MacNab Street transit station.


Read it in full here and get additional perspective on Reddit.

[LikeHamilton]

From New Flyer Industries web site:

Hamilton Awards New Flyer a Contract For 18 60-Foot Xcelsior® Buses

Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada – February 3, 2015: (TSX: NFI) (TSX: NFI.DB.U) New Flyer Industries Inc. (“New Flyer” or the “Company”), the leading manufacturer of heavy-duty transit buses in the Canada and the United States, announced today that the City of Hamilton, Ontario, Canada awarded New Flyer a contract for 18 (36 equivalent units or “EUs”) heavy-duty 60-foot Xcelsior® compressed natural gas (“CNG”) buses.

For nearly two decades New Flyer has built transit buses for the City of Hamilton in a variety of models, bus lengths and propulsion systems ranging from diesel, diesel hybrid, and CNG. The City of Hamilton operates more than 250 New Flyer buses with this award marking the first time that New Flyer will build their best-in-class Xcelsior model for Hamilton.

“We greatly appreciate the confidence the City of Hamilton continues to have in New Flyer product and are excited to now deliver our Xcelsior model to them for the first time,” said Paul Soubry, New Flyer’s President and Chief Executive Officer.

http://www.newflyer.com/index/news-app/story.182

[Gurnett71]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

I have a coworker whose home is three hundred meters from a B-Line stop and whose office is a similar distance from another B-Line stop. She drives, because taking transit is “$87 a month” and parking is “only $60 a month.” It seems to me that these are exactly the types of riders we should be trying to attract, but pushing the pass price as high as we can probably won’t do it. Later this year, if this proposal is accepted, taking the bus will cost “a hundred dollars a month!” and to people doing incomplete math (most people), driving will seem even cheaper than it did before.

Just an aside, but public transit users can also claim the cost of their monthly passes as a non-refundable tax credit on their income taxes, potentially reducing that monthly cost a bit.

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/transitpass/

[flar]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

I have a coworker whose home is three hundred meters from a B-Line stop and whose office is a similar distance from another B-Line stop. She drives, because taking transit is “$87 a month” and parking is “only $60 a month.” It seems to me that these are exactly the types of riders we should be trying to attract, but pushing the pass price as high as we can probably won’t do it. Later this year, if this proposal is accepted, taking the bus will cost “a hundred dollars a month!” and to people doing incomplete math (most people), driving will seem even cheaper than it did before.

Your friend also risks being late because the buses drive by already full, which happened to me often as a daily rider when I lived in Hamilton.

But it's interesting to contrast with Ottawa. For myself, it's $190/month or $15/day for parking at my office and $100.75/month for a bus pass or $3.45/ride. I take the bus, as do almost all my coworkers, including people at executive levels. I would say I know more people who bike or walk to work than drive. Cost is obviously a factor, but so is the level of service and traffic congestion.

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by Gurnett71

Just an aside, but public transit users can also claim the cost of their monthly passes as a non-refundable tax credit on their income taxes, potentially reducing that monthly cost a bit.

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/transitpass/

Thanks for the link. I actually did mention the tax credit earlier in the post you quoted.

[thistleclub]

Big bus fare hikes
(CATCH, Feb 11 2015)

HSR riders will be forced to pay nearly all the cost for proposed transit improvements, continuing a quarter-century council tradition of refusing to use tax monies to fix transit. The latest staff transit strategy also dramatically abandons repeated city promises to double transit ridership, despite acknowledging that Hamilton lags far behind comparable city bus systems.

The proposed strategy unveiled last week also offers no improvements for suburban residents in the next two years dedicated to fixing “existing deficiencies” and doesn’t mention any changes to the area-rating system that continues to force residents of old Hamilton to pay more than three times the tax rates imposed on the former suburbs.

Transit chief David Dixon explained to councillors last week that the HSR needs $6 million over the next two years just to deal with current problems before the system can be properly marketed and actually start seeing real growth in ridership.

Dixon is proposing fare increases of over 12 percent this year and more in 2016 to raise nearly all ($5.7 million) of the $6 million. The spending would increase hours of service by just over six percent in hopes of ending bypasses where full buses leave waiting passengers at the curb.

Cash fares would jump to $3 in September (currently $2.55), tickets rise to $2.25 (from $2) and adult passes climb $12 a month to $99. Senior’s fares would go up 24 percent. There would be a further 10-cent-a-ride increase in each of the next three years and probably every year into the future.

But he warned that even his ten year plan will only get the city to 50 rides per capita – barely above the 48 achieved in 2006 and far less than the 65 that London has already reached. The new goal is a dramatic retreat from the 80-100 repeatedly promised in transit plans going back to 1994.

Read it in full here.

[Beedok]

Originally Posted by flar

Your friend also risks being late because the buses drive by already full, which happened to me often as a daily rider when I lived in Hamilton.

Not that Ottawa doesn't have plenty of full buses driving past people because they're full (and sometimes pushing an hour late too). Ottawa has some wonderfully reliable routes, but a decent chunk make Thunder Bay look good. Hamilton in my experience has always been fairly reliable (though Columbia College always completely filled the buses).

[SteelTown]

Personally I'd advocate for LRT from McMaster to downtown and invest the rest in beefing up HSR. However, I know that opinion isn't popular and it's either all or nothing.

I feel like HSR service in Lower Hamilton is basically maxed and basically just needs more buses to handle the number of riders. Whereas, on the Mountain there's a lot of work needed to be done. Improving HSR on the Mountain is the best way to increase new ridership.