The US Census Bureau thread

[mhays]

I'll speak for Seattle.

The #1 growth type is 5+1 housing. About 20% of the city allows true urban densities, actually about 15% until recently. Most of this is zoned for heights of 45-85', with 65' being the most common at least before the recent upzones.

Towers are secondary. A lot have been going up in the Downtown fringes (and now in the U District thanks to another upzone), but they represent a fraction of the city's growth since 2010.

Townhouses are also secondary. Thousands have gone up, often in back yards or replacing one house with three or four. These are in the 20% that allows density.

We only recently made ADUs easy in the 60% of the city that's SFR focused, so it's not that.

So how does the 20% fit so much housing?

Most of these areas started as either pockmarked density or just low-density commercial. For decades, that stuff has been replaced piecemeal with second-generation infill. Supermarkets, strip malls, car dealerships, light industry (though that's often protected), and the remaining houses in these areas have often been replaced. There's still a long way to go btw.

Low parking volumes are a big key. We can fit 60 units into a bungalow lot if there are only 5-10 parking spots, vs. some cities that would just do 10 units. Likewise we can do a 400-unit tower on 1/3 or 1/2 acre with 200 parking spaces all below-grade, vs. cities where a tower of that size might need multiples of the land.

And small units. Lots and lots of one bedrooms, studios, and true micros, aided by little or no parking in many cases.

Also, roommates are common.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

You're welcome.
but how does an established city outgrow the Sunbelt?

[wanderer34]

Does anybody know when the official city and county estimates will be released??? Last time I checked, the US Census still has the 2019 estimates. I'm hoping it's within this month at the earliest.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

You're welcome.

Does anyone have a summary of how has Seattle pulled off that stunning growth rate? I know it's an epicenter of the tech boom and that Seattle has been putting up apartment towers left and right, but how does an established city outgrow the Sunbelt?

Indeed, Seattle seems to be an overlooked city on this forum.

Denver is another city that is growing impressively. For many sunbelt cities, the most impressive growth has been in their mostly in their suburbs, not their main core city. They tend to sprawl outward from their main core.

[daniel]

Originally Posted by wanderer34

Does anybody know when the official city and county estimates will be released??? Last time I checked, the US Census still has the 2019 estimates. I'm hoping it's within this month at the earliest.

The 2020 estimates have already been released, but those are still based on the 2010 census. the official 2020 census numbers are still months away.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by wanderer34

Does anybody know when the official city and county estimates will be released??? Last time I checked, the US Census still has the 2019 estimates. I'm hoping it's within this month at the earliest.

The real Census numbers (enumerated count from Decennial Census) are released in August.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

You're welcome.

Does anyone have a summary of how has Seattle pulled off that stunning growth rate? I know it's an epicenter of the tech boom and that Seattle has been putting up apartment towers left and right, but how does an established city outgrow the Sunbelt?

Indeed, Seattle seems to be an overlooked city on this forum.

I'm a lotta bit skeptical of how realistic those ACS estimates are for Seattle, but that would be amazing. I think Seattle has grown, but that city hasn't added more than 100,000 people in a decade since the 1910 census. And 1950 was the last census that it even got close to posting a 100k increase.

[mhays]

Seattle's growth is tied to new housing construction. We were adding 10,000 units per year at the peak. (ps the link is about "finaled" permits, ie completed projects)

Further, the 2010 base was a time of high vacancies due to a building boom and economic drop. Just filling those units represented significant growth. Also, the rise in prices has resulted in more roommates.

Do we end with 760,000, i.e. growth of 152,000? I don't know. But it would make sense.

[chris08876]

[CrazyCres]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Very interesting

Are these the final numbers?

[mhays]

Those appear to be the estimates for 7/1/20, which aren't related to the count. The count will be for 4/1/20 and hasn't come out yet.

[wwmiv]

Read the subtitle, y’all.

[Crawford]

Again, these numbers are meaningless. They're decennial-year estimates, so you use the official decennial count, not the prior, since corrected, estimates.

They're literal fakenews, unless you're just investigating the sampling methodology.

[Martinman]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Denver is another city that is growing impressively. For many sunbelt cities, the most impressive growth has been in their mostly in their suburbs, not their main core city. They tend to sprawl outward from their main core.

That's not necessarily true anymore. At least now most southern cities are experiencing substantial growth in the core urban areas to go along with the sprawl growth.

[Ant131531]

According to that chart, Dallas and Houston are barely growing in their city propers between 2019 and 2020.....I wonder why that is?

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

According to that chart, Dallas and Houston are barely growing in their city propers between 2019 and 2020.....I wonder why that is?

That trend has been there for a couple years now. Almost all the growth is going to the suburbs which is dangerous when it’s happening in a city’s boom years.

Lower immigration and falling fertility rate is my guess for now.



https://billkingblog.com/suburbs-out...lation-growth/

[galleyfox]

[del]

[JManc]

Houston and Dallas are maturing metros and while still growing steadily, I think the huge boom era is largely leveling off. Finally.

In Houston, oil and gas has been a slump for years and will continue down a steady slow decline. Also, rest of country (Midwest and northeast) is not as bad off as it was when these cities were booming. You can actually find a job in Buffalo or Detroit now. Finally, immigration has tapered off in latter part of Trump era which was a huge source to new arrivals to Texas.

[Tom In Chicago]

Originally Posted by JManc

Houston and Dallas are maturing metros and while still growing steadily, I think the huge boom era is largely leveling off. Finally.

In Houston, oil and gas has been a slump for years and will continue down a steady slow decline. Also, rest of country (Midwest and northeast) is not as bad off as it was when these cities were booming. You can actually find a job in Buffalo or Detroit now. Finally, immigration has tapered off in latter part of Trump era which was a huge source to new arrivals to Texas.

Right, and does the cities of Dallas and Houston have large tracts of land to develop within their respective municipal boundaries? My guess is it's all probably pretty much spoken for and any growth from here on will be in the inner areas close to downtown where more dense buildings would add population. . . and my anecdotal observation is that - in these towns - it won't move the needle much, but I could be wrong. . .

. . .

[R1070]

Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago

Right, and does the cities of Dallas and Houston have large tracts of land to develop within their respective municipal boundaries? My guess is it's all probably pretty much spoken for and any growth from here on will be in the inner areas close to downtown where more dense buildings would add population. . . and my anecdotal observation is that - in these towns - it won't move the needle much, but I could be wrong. . .

. . .

Dallas' problem is the boom burbs are very appealing. There's still plenty of room to become more dense within the city of Dallas. Also, the slowdown of immigration and births along with the emptying of the poorest areas of the city are what's causing it to level off.