The Manitoba Provincial Politics Discussion

[dmacc]

Originally Posted by Jammon

Switch of topic, but I had a pull a current population figure for the province and I went to the statcan population clock. It's the first time in the long time that I noticed that we are actually losing more people than gaining. Usually immigration offsets interprovincial migration, but I was struck at how many people we lost just over a 5 day period- 1,292,258 --> 1,292,218. It's only 40 people in that 5 day period, but I'm really sensing this is a trend. People want out of Manitoba. Is this a leadership issue and lack of direction/vision for the province, or is the draw of the west that great?

I think that clock has to be taken with a grain of salt. Today the population is at 1,392,162. That clock is likely not tied to actual information but based on averages of each input and validated every so often.

[bomberjet]

There is basically no way to tell what the actual population is beyond the census every 5 years. And that's a pretty close number at a single point in time. People don't call the government and say hey I'm moving to BC today.

[cheswick]

Originally Posted by dmacc

I think that clock has to be taken with a grain of salt. Today the population is at 1,392,162. That clock is likely not tied to actual information but based on averages of each input and validated every so often.

Yeah, its recalibrated quarterly to align to more robust population estimates, which is what happened here I'm guessing. Between the quarterly updates it's just using averages over the past year and spreading those out over time to mimic a "realistic" view of how populations change. It's not like when it shows a birth or migrant, those events actually happened. Just on average you would expect one about then.

[thebasketballgeek]

What's weird is that despite this supposed population loss there are still 8,000 units currently under construction (Winnipeg accounting for 86% of new units with 6,855). I wonder if that will cool down the housing market.

[borkborkbork]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

What's weird is that despite this supposed population loss there are still 8,000 units currently under construction (Winnipeg accounting for 86% of new units with 6,855). I wonder if that will cool down the housing market.

One of the problems with the overheated market is that people don't want to buy condos, townhouses, or even semis in HOA type neighbourhoods because then they'll lose out on the massive appreciations in value. Like, the housing market is out of control but you don't see the same kind of frenzied bidding on anything other than single family homes.

There's got to be a part of the calculus where if you have the choice between a townhouse and a small bungalow, you pick the bungalow because you don't want to be left out of the housing gains that are about the underlying land rather than the house on top...

[biguc]

Read this the other day:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...nada-1.6440239

So, Manitoba's minimum wage is still in the $11 an hour range after, what, ten years? Has it even kept up with inflation--before the post-Covid inflation?

And people wonder why there's rampant homelessness, despair, and crime in the city. Consider: rental agencies won't rent to you if you make less than 3x rent. A quick search of the city's slummiest agencies--Smith and Sussex--shows 7 openings at Smith and 0 at Sussex for less than $640 a month. Knowing Smith, those 7 places are 100% lousy with bed bugs.

It's not the 2000s anymore. The days of $300 rent are over. The Cons' minimum wage increase is going to bump minimum wage earners' affordable rent by a whopping $18.

[thurmas]

Hopefully this is the last year of the wretched pcs stay in power as this province has gone totally down hill during their time in power. Crime, infrastructure, addictions and housing, health care, ability to attract business and retain citizens they have failed at everything they touch. I am no fan of the NDP by any means but the province was in much better shape while they were in power and I consider myself a conservative.

[Ando]

Originally Posted by biguc

Read this the other day:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...nada-1.6440239

So, Manitoba's minimum wage is still in the $11 an hour range after, what, ten years? Has it even kept up with inflation--before the post-Covid inflation?

And people wonder why there's rampant homelessness, despair, and crime in the city. Consider: rental agencies won't rent to you if you make less than 3x rent. A quick search of the city's slummiest agencies--Smith and Sussex--shows 7 openings at Smith and 0 at Sussex for less than $640 a month. Knowing Smith, those 7 places are 100% lousy with bed bugs.

It's not the 2000s anymore. The days of $300 rent are over. The Cons' minimum wage increase is going to bump minimum wage earners' affordable rent by a whopping $18.

The minimum wage situation is embarrassing. I expect a Con promise will be forthcoming a few weeks before the next election.

[dmacc]

Originally Posted by biguc

Read this the other day:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...nada-1.6440239

So, Manitoba's minimum wage is still in the $11 an hour range after, what, ten years? Has it even kept up with inflation--before the post-Covid inflation?

And people wonder why there's rampant homelessness, despair, and crime in the city. Consider: rental agencies won't rent to you if you make less than 3x rent. A quick search of the city's slummiest agencies--Smith and Sussex--shows 7 openings at Smith and 0 at Sussex for less than $640 a month. Knowing Smith, those 7 places are 100% lousy with bed bugs.

It's not the 2000s anymore. The days of $300 rent are over. The Cons' minimum wage increase is going to bump minimum wage earners' affordable rent by a whopping $18.

That article states the minimum wage increases are informed by cost of living increases which is why in Manitoba, the increase will be 3.3% this year.

[biguc]

The inflation rate last year in Manitoba was 3.3%. But that doesn't include housing--calling that an accurate reflection of cost of living is a joke. Rents have effectively doubled in the last 15 years. Minimum wage has not.

[dmacc]

Originally Posted by biguc

The inflation rate last year in Manitoba was 3.3%. But that doesn't include housing--calling that an accurate reflection of cost of living is a joke. Rents have effectively doubled in the last 15 years. Minimum wage has not.

Minimum wage being tied to cost of living increases only started when Palister got in. Before that I am not sure what informed the minimum wage increases if any. Maybe Manitoba needs to do what Sask. is doing and have a couple years of $.75-$1.25 increases and then tie it back to cost of living increases. I personally like it to be tied to some metric such as inflation or cost of living.

[dmacc]

Originally Posted by djforsberg

Minimum wage should work out to be that a minimum wage earner working full-time spends no more than 30% of their income on housing, based on average rents in their area (since housing is the single largest expense most will ever have). But of course that won't happen because it makes too much sense and it would require politicians to actually do their job and make sure costs for essential items don't get out of control.

If that were the case, if you assume the average rent in Winnipeg is $1,200, minimum wage would need to be $23.08. If you base it off the average bachelor suite ($733), minimum wage would need to be $14.10. If you change the % of income to 40% than it is $17.31 and $10.57 respectively.

The current minimum wage ($11.95) amounts to 58% of the average rent and 35% of the average bachelor suites in Winnipeg. The new min wage in October ($12.35) amounts to 56% and 34% respectively.

[drew]

That "housing" cost isn't just rent. It should include everything associated with housing like utilities and insurance.

[GreyGarden]

I suspect a compelling case can be made that minimum wages across the country are inadequate. But at a minimum, the province should look at unaffordability across the country and figure out where Manitoba fits on that scale. It'd make sense to me that minimum wage here be slightly less than Ontario, BC and Quebec. But I'm actually not sure from an affordability perspective, where Manitoba sits compared to Saskatchewan and the maritime provinces.

[bomberjet]

So you can see how far off we are today in terms of buying power. That's why my grandparents could support the whole family on one salary, live in a nice house in Wolseley, send the 3 kids to university. On my grandpa's railway labourer salary. My grandma started working at Eaton's when the kids got older to keep busy with her friends.

Companies could also just pay workers better. But that flies in the face of profits. Maybe that's why their all complaining about trying to find workers. Nobody wants to work a job that doesn't even pay their bills.

[dmacc]

Originally Posted by djforsberg

Yup, then minimum wage should be $23.08, then. If this was policy 20 years ago, we likely would have seen much more effort to keep housing prices under control by all levels of government. This would also keep the corporate world honest as well.

Is that really fair, considering the average rental at about $1,200 is also the average for a 2 bedroom. Is it the right of an individual earning minimum wage to be able to afford a 2 bedroom apartment? What is a reasonable amount of apartment someone should have the right to be able to afford?

[dmacc]

Originally Posted by djforsberg

Agreed. I based this off how one gets approved for a mortgage but couldn't remember what was included in that housing cost.

Generally someone is approved based on their income to debt ratio which allows for about 30-35% of ones gross income to be allocated to debt but can be as high as 40%.

If you have a high interest loan then the bank would likely have the limit at 30% but if all the debt is tied to a low interest mortgage and you have a great credit score then you may be able to get close to the 40%.

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by dmacc

If that were the case, if you assume the average rent in Winnipeg is $1,200, minimum wage would need to be $23.08. If you base it off the average bachelor suite ($733), minimum wage would need to be $14.10. If you change the % of income to 40% than it is $17.31 and $10.57 respectively.

The current minimum wage ($11.95) amounts to 58% of the average rent and 35% of the average bachelor suites in Winnipeg. The new min wage in October ($12.35) amounts to 56% and 34% respectively.

Avg Rent is actually $1317 a month as of Feb 2022 (page 51) and the wage required to have rent just be 30% of your income is about $27 an hour. I wonder what the median salary is in Winnipeg and how it compares to other cities in that regard.

Anyways only 3% of all dwelling units in the city would be considered affordable for someone making minimum wage. Increasing the wage is a necessity, but it has to be in conjunction with heavy investment into public housing.

[esquire]

It's interesting that the construction of a huge-for-Winnipeg number of MURB units (both rental and condo) over the last 10 years doesn't seem to be having much of an impact in terms of cooling off rents, given that it has seemingly cooled off the actual value of those units... I've read real estate people making comments to that effect in various Free Press articles.

[dmacc]

Originally Posted by djforsberg

Well, obviously it would be based on a combination of factors, such as some sort of blend of what a 1-bedroom for an individual, 2-bedroom for a couple, or a 3 to 4-bedroom for a family would cost. All three of these scenarios should generally see the occupants not spending more than 30% of their combined income on housing costs.

Why is a 1 bedroom not suitable for a couple. Min wage should reflect the minimum amount required to meet basic needs, it is not meant to afford you all the luxuries in the world. A couple in a 1 bedroom would be able to afford the 1 bedroom and the potential ability to save for a down payment.

Perhaps the combination of factors should be an individual enough for a bachelor, a couple for a 1 bedroom and a family for a 2-3 bedroom.