Downtowns are back - Page 11

Yuri · #1 Posted **Feb 24, 2020, 10:35 PM**

2020 arrived and the US Census (and Brazilian as I'm based) will confirm the surge of Downtowns all across the globe, specially in Americas, where the urban decline hit the hardest.

We can use this thread to post numbers, forecasts, developments and general discussions about the renaissance of the hearts of our cities.

I'll start with São Paulo, where I live. Downtown São Paulo has a loosen definition which is common in massive metropolises. I'll use as the definition the 9 most central districts, that counted 477,670 inh. (2010 Census) in 33 km² (12.7 sq miles) for a 14,400 inh./km² (37,300 inh./sqm).

It's still a rough area, where probably the largest "Crackland" (Cracolândia in Portuguese) in the world is located, all banks and big companies have migrated to new financial districts. However, on the past years new restaurants, bars, nightclubs, creative shops are popping all over the area. I wouldn't call gentrification yet, but it's definitely the coolest place to be. A bit like Kreuzberg and Neukölln in Berlin.

Let's get to the numbers:

------------------------------- 2010 --------- 2000 -------- 1991

Code:

SÃO PAULO MACRO METRO -- 31,894,697 -- 28,485,522 -- 24,032,662 --- +11.97% --- +18.21%

SÃO PAULO METRO AREA --- 19,683,975 -- 17,878,703 -- 15,444,941 --- +10.10% --- +15.76%

SÃO PAULO -------------- 11,253,503 -- 10,434,252 --- 9,646,185 ---- +7.85% ---- +8.17%

DOWNTOWN SP --------------- 477,670 ----- 413,896 ----- 513,512 --- +15.41% --- -19.40%

In the 1990's, Downtown São Paulo was in Rust Belt kind of free fall. Crime rates in São Paulo were much higher back then and the region felt the impact as the middle-class left the region in droves.

The 2000's, even though the urban decay was and still very present, we saw a completely change on the trend, with Downtown São Paulo growing faster than the city, the metro area and even the macrometropolitan area.

However, the comeback started to be felt for good only in the early 2010's, with the southern edge (Bela Vista district, bordering Paulista Avenue) recovering first and growing northwards into the core direction (Sé and República districts).

That's why the 2020 Census will be very interesting. I wouldn't be surprised, even with the crisis and weaker Brazilian general demographics, to see the region growing close to 20% between Census, reaching 570,000 inh. and a 17,000 inh./km² (44,000 inh./sqm) density.