Hamilton's economy?

[Beedok]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

Projections peg Hamilton's population at 740,000 by 2041, he said, a 42 per cent increase over 2011's census population of 520,000.

That puts the metro a little over a million. Sadly it isn't happening faster.

[thistleclub]

Projections peg Hamilton's population at 740,000 by 2041, he said, a 42 per cent increase over 2011's census population of 520,000.

That's actually a mild downgrade compared to the boldest population projections for that horizon:

Via Ministry of Finance (Spring 2012)
2036: 651,100

Via Hemson (November 2012)
2036: 733,000
2041: 778,000

FWIW, both sources overestimated Hamilton's 2011 population by 20,000.

[SteelTown]

Not bad that Hamiltons population will nearly double in 28 years.

[SteelTown]

Kinda surprising considering it took Hamilton 167 years to get the current population and wham in just 28 years the population will have nearly doubled.

[ihateittoo]

It's not really double, plus cities seem to grow exponentially. With all the suburban potential of Binbrook and Waterdown and the possible influx into the core it could happen.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

Not bad that Hamiltons population will nearly double in 28 years.

42% is far from double.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by ihateittoo

It's not really double, plus cities seem to grow exponentially. With all the suburban potential of Binbrook and Waterdown and the possible influx into the core it could happen.

There could be unaccounted factors that alter the long range projections too. Hemson didn't do anything that isn't standard practice - but future urban policies, economic shifts, and socio-cultural factors can play a huge role and those things can't be foreseen. Even a modest influence can add up over decades.

Hamilton seems to have some decent goals regarding what kind of city it wants to be, but the specifics about how to achieve them are lacking or under debate. Those could affect what that future population will be, and how it will be distributed across the city.

[thistleclub]

Notable trend, courtesy CIBC World Markets' Metropolitan Economic Activity Index:

Full-Time Work as a Share of Total Employment, Q3 2010 vs. Q3 2012

Canada: 79.3% to 80.3% (+1.0%)

St. John’s CMA: 86.5% to 89.0% (+2.5%)
Halifax CMA: 81.8% to 82.2% (+0.4%)
Saint John CMA: 84.6% to 85.5% (+0.9%)
Saguenay CMA: 79.7% to 83.2% (+3.5%)
Quebec City CMA: 80.9% to 83.4% (+2.5%)
Trois-Rivieres CMA: 79.6% to 84.0% (+4.4%)
Sherbrooke CMA: 80.2% to 82.8% (+2.6%)
Montreal CMA: 82.2% to 83.3% (+1.1%)

Thunder Bay CMA: 78.3% to 81.9% (+3.6%)
Greater Sudbury CMA: 81.3% to 85.3% (+4.0%)
Ottawa CMA: 85.5% to 85.2% (-0.3%)
Kingston CMA: 79.1% to 81.6% (+2.5%)
Toronto CMA: 82.8% to 84.0% (+1.2%)
Hamilton CMA: 81.2% to 78.9% (-2.3%)
St. Catharines-Niagara CMA: 79.4% to 78.4% (-1.0%)
Kitchener CMA : 81.3% to 81.0% (-0.3%)
London CMA: 78.9% to 79.9% (+1.0%)
Windsor CMA: 76.3% to 77.8% (+1.5%)

Winnipeg CMA: 81.8% to 82.2% (+0.4%)
Regina CMA: 83.5% to 86.8% (+3.3%)
Saskatoon CMA: 82.7% to 83.4% (+0.6%)
Calgary CMA: 84.1% to 87.0% (+2.9%)
Edmonton CMA: 83.9% to 84.6% (+0.7%)
Vancouver CMA: 79.8% to 81.0% (+1.2%)
Victoria CMA: 77.4% to 79.6% (+2.2%)



A similar disparity seems to turn up in the 2011 National Household Survey's employment data:

Ontario: 52.2% worked full-year, full-time; median FTE income $50,116
Hamilton CMA: 50.9% worked full year, full time; median FTE income $52,033

Hamilton: 49.8% worked full year, full time; median FTE income $49,103
Burlington: 53.8% worked full year, full time; median FTE income $59,460
Grimsby: 49.7% worked full year, full time; median FTE income $58,803

[SteelTown]

Here's a welcoming sign...

City Hall wants five new staff to keep up with building permits

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/41...lding-permits/

By Matthew Van Dongen

City hall apparently can't keep up with Hamilton's building boom.

The city planning committee will consider a request this morning to hire five more building services employees for about $500,000 to deal with a growing backlog of building permits.

The proposed hires would be paid for out of a dedicated building reserve and wouldn't affect the tax budget, according to a city report.

Other items on the agenda include an Ontario Municipal Board appeal by Shopper's Drug Mart which alleges the city has dragged its feet dealing with official plan amendments for a proposed Dundurn Street development.

[ScreamingViking]

The city must be projecting that our recent level activity is the new normal. Perhaps that it may increase.

[SteelTown]

Hamilton building permits likely to reach $1B this year

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilt...year-1.2415879

Building permits in Hamilton are on track to hit the billion-dollar mark again this year, signalling a healthy level of investment in the city.

Last year, the city broke a record by issuing $1.5 billion worth of building permits. This year will likely be a little less than that, but still crack the $1-billion mark, said Ed VanderWindt, the city’s director of building services.

Building permits have been so busy that the city is hiring the full-time equivalent of five more staff to handle the workload.

[HamiltonBoyInToronto]

I don't understand why the Stats Canada page is showing the building permits in Hamilton at $88 million dollars

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...con68a-eng.htm

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

The city must be projecting that our recent level activity is the new normal. Perhaps that it may increase.

CBC Hamilton:

Staffing levels in the building permit office are actually lower than they were in 2006, said a report from VanderWindt at the city’s planning committee on Tuesday.

Currently, the full-time equivalent of 90 employees work in the building permit office compared to 94 in 2006.

As of September, the office racked up $148,465 in overtime, he said.

“Staff is exhausted and the increase in overtime are indicators of extra efforts to keep up,” his report said.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by HamiltonBoyInToronto

I don't understand why the Stats Canada page is showing the building permits in Hamilton at $88 million dollars

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...con68a-eng.htm

It's a monthly table.

It's also CMA-based and seasonally adjusted so it couldn't be directly compared to the city's own monthly figures.

[thistleclub]

Hamilton's jobless rate edges up in October
(CBC Hamilton, Nov 8 2013)

The October unemployment numbers for Hamilton are out, and they show the city's job market failed to rebound last month after a shaky start to the fall.

Hamilton recorded a 7.1 per cent unemployment rate in October, up one tenth of a percentage point from the previous month. In September, the unemployment rate leaped a half percentage point, to seven per cent from 6.5 per cent in August.

Hamilton’s jobless rate remains below the provincial average. In October, Ontario’s unemployment rate came in at 7.4 per cent, up from 7.3 per cent in September.

[thistleclub]

CMA FTW!

The place to be: No. 5 in nation for jobs, wage
(Hamilton Spectator, Steve Arnold, Nov 22 2013)

Regina has topped Hamilton — but in the labour market, not on the football field.

A new study ranks Hamilton as one of the top five labour markets in Canada, placing Hamilton as fifth and Regina in the top spot.

In addition, Hamilton is the only eastern Canadian city in the top five, ranked well ahead of Toronto, Kitchener and London.

Prepared by the Bank of Montreal's economics section, the report ranks cities as labour destinations based on median income, unemployment rate, employment growth and housing costs.

"What really sets Hamilton apart is your lower housing cost," said economist Robert Kavcic, author of the study. "Your high incomes and low unemployment are also attractive."

Kavcic's figures show Hamilton boasting a median income of $69,900 compared to $70,500 in Regina, an average year-to-date unemployment rate of 6.4 per cent compared to 3.5 and average home prices of $381,000 compared to $311,400 in Regina.

However, the study found the city's employment growth lagging much of the country.

Employment here fell 1.2 per cent over the last year. Regina posted employment gains of 6 per cent over the year.

[durandy]

$69,000??? Maybe someone can read the study and explain this, given that stats Canada surveys I've read give a median Canadian income of $27,600 and median family income of $76,000. Different methods of calculation?

[Dr Awesomesauce]

'Kavcic's figures show Hamilton boasting a median income of $69,900...'

How much of those monies are earned in the GTA? Meaningless, really. We should probably just look at things from a GTHA perspective.

[thistleclub]

The BMO report measures the Hamilton CMA using opaque methodology and weighting, so that's two or three grains of salt.

While it is unclear if there is any distinction drawn between full-time and part-time employment in this accounting (or if factors such as participation rate are considered), it does show the CMA posting the second steepest drop in employment in the country (-1.2% versus the +1.4% national average), a distinction mooted by Hamilton's cheap real estate and Burlington's high incomes. In terms of employment growth, we're #18 of 19 CMAs. Only Ottawa (-1.3%) fares worse.

And incomes in this case are measured in terms of census family earnings ("all family units; employment/self-employment income only; forecasted for 2013").

[SteelTown]

The Best Cities In Canada To Move For Work

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/11...n_4324749.html

Western Canada reigns supreme in a new ranking of the most attractive labour markets in Canada, but there are some surprises on the list as well.

A new survey from BMO Capital Markets ranks Regina and Calgary as the best cities in Canada to find work, but would you believe Hamilton is a more attractive city to find work than Toronto? Or that Kitchener is more attractive than Vancouver?

That’s in part because housing affordability plays a large role in people’s decisions to move for work, says BMO economist Robert Kavcic.

From that perspective, Hamilton over Toronto might just make sense. The average house price in Toronto is $517,000, by BMO’s estimate, compared to $381,000 in Hamilton.

And even though Hamilton saw a net job loss over the past year, its unemployment rate (6.4 per cent) is still considerably lower than Toronto’s (8.1 per cent).

Vancouver’s average house price — $757,000 — also works against it, ranking the city below such places as Quebec City and Winnipeg.