Canadian Business Thread

[WaterlooInvestor]

I tend to disagree, I don't view Tim Horton's as a consumer discretionary company at all. When someone loses their job they won't go out and buy a flat screen tv (Best Buy), but they still need to drink/eat. Tim's is at the bottom of the price scale, so during bad economic times consumers may even trade down from Starbucks, etc..

[graupner]

Originally Posted by WaterlooInvestor

I tend to disagree, I don't view Tim Horton's as a consumer discretionary company at all. When someone loses their job they won't go out and buy a flat screen tv (Best Buy), but they still need to drink/eat. Tim's is at the bottom of the price scale, so during bad economic times consumers may even trade down from Starbucks, etc..

Who wakes up early, stops to get a coffee and a donut ? thousands of american construction workers, thousands of Michigan or illinois or Ontario auto workers.

No need to remember you the 100s of thousands of jobs lost in the past few months.

I think you're having a hard time differentiating a company's financial results and its stock performance. Even if both are linked, a decent financial result could result in a big stock drop, or a less than predicted bad result could give you a good stock performance.
Most of the comments both on RIM and TIM refer mostly to their stock performance rather than the company itself.

[graupner]

Originally Posted by WaterlooInvestor

I thought I'd do a bit of a comparison for any Canadians out there who don't want this company to succeed.

Nokia (which comes from tiny Finland, population of 5,302,778) has 8 job openings in Canada. If you buy/support their product, that's the type of Canadian employment/tax base you are helping to build.

In comparison RIM has 602 job openings in Canada: 41 in Ottawa, 33 in Mississauga, 15 in Halifax and 513 in Waterloo. The development in Halifax is starting to gear up, and the local forumers even have a thread on it: http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=139987

So, 8 vs. 602? Who do you think will pay more taxes and provide more employment for Canadians? Which company do you think provides more market cap for the Toronto Stock Exchange (thereby helping to lift it's reputation as a Financial Centre)?



Also in regards to the recent share price drop: you need to realize that even relatively safe companies such as Tim Horton's have dropped lately. Did Canadians all of a sudden stop buying coffee and donuts? They must have...

3-month Tim Horton Chart: http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet...-T&pi_sponsor=

No one wants RIM to 'fail' . In fact even if someone here wanted this to happen, it would be out of his power.
All discussions in this thread reffered to its market performance and nothing more.

[Boris2k7]

Time to post some non-RIM, non-TIM articles...


Horizon tab soars $1.9 billion
Cold snap adds to energy project's costs
Shaun Polczer, Calgary Herald
Published: Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. on Tuesday blamed a combination of cold weather and higher labour costs for pushing the Horizon oilsands project nearly $2 billion over budget.

The company said Horizon could cost as much as $8.7 billion, up about 28 per cent from a previous estimate of $6.8 billion.

The company blamed most of the increase on a cold snap at the start of the year that saw temperatures plunge into the -40 C range, reducing activity levels at the sprawling job site north of Fort McMurray.

"Unfortunately, mid- to late-January and early February saw a significant deterioration in labour productivity on the construction site as much colder than normal weather seriously curtailed activity," said Real Doucet, CNRL's vice-president of oilsands.

The cold was so bad that Syncrude Canada Ltd. in late January shut production for several days after its equipment froze.

"The worst of it is likely behind us," Steve Laut, Canadian Natural's president and chief operating officer said in a conference call.

Observers said the budget increase isn't material given the scope of the project, which will produce 110,000 barrels per day when it reaches full capacity later in the year.

"It seems like a big number, but it's not really a big deal," said Raymond James analyst Steve Calderwood, who had factored in a $600-million cost overage into his own estimates.

Even though the actual number is likely to be three times bigger than that, it has little or no impact on the company's overall asset value.

Calderwood said it's more important to avoid startup delays that could affect 2009 production volumes. Barring any unforeseen calamity, he doesn't expect any further cost increases between now and summer.

"One thing I can predict is that the weather is going to get better," he quipped. "These guys are the poster child for on-time, on-budget so we should be able to take them at their word."

Other big oilsands projects, such as the OPTI-Nexen Long Lake project, have also experienced significant cost overruns as companies compete for limited labour resources and materials such as steel.

Todd Hirsch, chief economist with the Alberta Treasury Branch, said he isn't surprised that oilsands operators continue experience labour woes.

"Even though the Alberta economy is slowing on a number of fronts, it doesn't seem to be trickling down to the labour market. Unemployment remains at generational lows and wages continue to rise," he said.

Horizon remains on track for first oil starting Aug. 5, CNRL's Laut said.

Despite the setback, CNRL shares rose 23 cents on the Toronto Stock Exchange to close at $62.99.

spolczer@theherald.canwest.com

[401_King]

Originally Posted by WaterlooInvestor

I tend to disagree, I don't view Tim Horton's as a consumer discretionary company at all. When someone loses their job they won't go out and buy a flat screen tv (Best Buy), but they still need to drink/eat. Tim's is at the bottom of the price scale, so during bad economic times consumers may even trade down from Starbucks, etc..

i respect your opinion. but I dont believe in this stock. Tim hortons is a company primarily restricted in Canada. I dont believe it will work in the United States - ever. Lets be honest, the product is garbage. It does not appeal to Americans. Although their same store sales are dropping, starbucks seems to appeal more to the new generation in Canada. Their market share is increasing. This is the trend. Starbucks will grow, while Tim Hortons has almost saturated its presence in Canada. Now, with Mcdonalds having discussions about making a serious impact in the coffee market this will put even more pressure on THI stock and starbucks.

Anyways, this discussion was about Tim Hortons being a "safe stock". I think THI is far from a safe stock. I think Mcdonalds, coca cola or Yum Brands is the closest substitute for a safe stock. They have worldwide presence and are going to boom boom boom in asia.

[Boris2k7]

Agrium rakes in record earnings
Reuters
Published: Wednesday, February 13, 2008

WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) - Agrium Inc , the top U.S. crop-supply retailer, said on Wednesday it rebounded to a profit in the fourth quarter as it sold more fertilizer at higher prices.

Agrium Chief Executive Mike Wilson said the outlook for the coming year is "outstanding" because record grain prices will motivate farmers to use more fertilizer and chemicals.

Agrium, the world's third-largest nitrogen producer, earned $172 million, or $1.24 a share, during the quarter, compared with a loss of $62 million, or 47 cents per share, a year earlier, when problems at a phosphate mine affected results.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters Estimates had expected, on average, earnings of 87 cents a share.

Calgary, Alberta-based Agrium also beat its own forecast of 80 cents to 95 cents a share for the fourth quarter and $2.80 to $2.95 per share for 2007.

Its 2007 profit was a record $3.25 per share.

"It was a monster number (earnings) and it's reflective of their very strong end markets," said Neil Andrew, portfolio manager at Leeward Hedge Funds in Toronto, who called agriculture-related stocks a "safe harbor" for investors.

"We think Agrium is a top name in the (agriculture) space, and it's going higher," Andrew said.

Reduced income taxes boosted Agrium's results by 20 cents per share, but strong nitrogen prices helped the company beat expectations, said David Silver, analyst at J.P. Morgan, in a research note.

Agrium shares rose 3.8 percent, or C$2.37, to C$65.50 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and were up 4.3 percent, or $2.73, at $65.55 in New York.

Revenue was $1.43 billion, up 58.6 percent from $899 million a year earlier.

Agrium said it is still waiting for U.S. regulators to approve its friendly takeover of UAP Holding Corp , which would boost Agrium's share of the U.S. retail fertilizer, chemical and seed market.

The deal is worth $39 a share in cash, making the equity portion of the deal worth $2.16 billion.

($1=$1.00 Canadian)

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton, Jonathan Spicer and Scott Anderson; Editing by Peter Galloway)

[Boris2k7]

WestJet profit lifted by demand
Reuters
Published: Wednesday, February 13, 2008

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Fourth-quarter profit at WestJet Airlines Ltd nearly tripled as strong demand and a big one-time tax adjustment lifted results, Canada's No. 2 passenger carrier said on Wednesday.

WestJet, which has been expanding its network in Canada, the United States and the Caribbean, earned $75.4 million, or 57 Canadian cents a share during the quarter, up from a year-earlier profit of C$26.7 million, or 21 cents a share.

Excluding a $33.7 million tax adjustment, WestJet said earnings rose 56 percent to $41.7 million, or 32 cents a share.

Analysts were expecting an average forecast of 27 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Revenue was $553.4 million, up 22 percent from $452.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Full-year earnings rose 68 percent to $192.8 million, or $1.47 a share, from $114.7 million, or 88 cents a share. Revenue increased nearly 22 percent to $2.15 billion.

WestJet, which has enjoyed strong Canadian industry conditions despite a downturn among many U.S. airlines, said its results were helped by cost controls, record load factor and market share gains.

The stock, which closed at $17.30 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday, has gained about 12 percent over the last 12 months.

(Reporting by Susan Taylor)

[Boris2k7]

Strong dollar, low prices hit Fording profit
Gina Teel, Calgary Herald
Published: Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Fording Canadian Coal Trust saw its fourth-quarter profit slashed by 57 per cent due mostly to lower realized coal prices and the impact of a strengthening loonie on Elk Valley Coal, in which it owns a 60 per cent stake.

However, with an already tight global metallurgical coal market now further under the gun from recent flood-related disruptions in Australia, market conditions are ripe heading into 2008.

"We believe that the global met-coal market has entered a period of considerable volatility," Bob Bell, Elk Valley Coal Corp.'s vice-president and chief commercial officer, told analysts during a conference call to discuss Fording's quarterly financial results.

"U.S. dollar prices are expected to increase significantly in 2008 due to short-term supply constraints. However, if a deep U.S. recession comes to pass that alters the rapid economic development in China, India and other growth areas, this could in turn adversely impact the metallurgical coal markets," he said.

Back on Jan. 25, Fording units rose their highest in 21 months due to supply concerns, prompting some analysts to say there was potential to see settlement of 2008 coal contract prices rise above the $140 and $150 US per tonne mark. Then, on Feb. 4, Fording units soared to a 52-week high of $49.12.

On Tuesday, Fording units were off $1.75 on the day, to close at $44.25 on the TSX. The units have gained 15.29 per cent this year.

As to how coal contract prices are shaping up for the 2008 coal year, which begins April 1, Bell would only say that negotiations with customers are underway.

Fording officials entertained even less discussion about developments related to the possible sale of the trust. In December 2007, the trust announced that independent committees had been formed to explore and make recommendations regarding strategic alternatives that may be available to the trust, with an eye to maximizing value for unitholders.

"Other than to say the process is ongoing, we are unable to comment further at this time," said Jim Brown, Fording's chief financial officer.

He later added there's no deadline in place for a decision.

Calgary-based Fording reported net income from continuing operations of $49 million, or 33 cents per unit, for the fourth quarter of 2007, compared with $115 million, or 78 cents per unit, in the year-earlier period.

Before special items, net income from continuing operations was $75 million, or 51 cents a unit, compared with $116 million, or 79 cents per unit, for the same quarter in 2006.

Revenue fell to $327.5 million for the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with $424.9 million for the same period in 2006.

John Hughes, an analyst with Desjardins Securities, said the principle difference when looking at a year-over-year basis is the price of coal versus the volume.

"Of course, going forward, we are moving the other direction, sort of off the bottom in terms of pricing, up to levels again that historically we've probably never seen," he said.

The average realized coal price in the fourth quarter was $93 US per tonne, down from the $106 per tonne reaped in 2006. For the year, the price was $98 per tonne US, down from $113 per tonne.

Coal sales volumes for the trust's share in the quarter were 3.6 million tonnes, up slightly from 3.5 million tonnes the previous year. Production was flat at 3.3 million tonnes.

Looking ahead, Bell said, market conditions provide an opportunity to sell more coal in 2008.

Elk Valley Coal, the second largest supplier of seaborne hard coking coal in the world, increased its sales guidance for 2008 to the range of 23 million tonnes to 25 million tonnes for the 2008 calendar year. In 2007, sales were 22.7 million tonnes.

Hard coking coal is a type of metallurgical coal that's used for making coke by integrated steel mills.

Even with expected higher coal prices for 2008, Bell said Elk Valley Coal may not see the benefit until possibly the third quarter of 2008. Demand is strong but an increase in rail shipments is required to meet customer demands, he said.

Teck Cominco Ltd. has the remaining 40 per cent interest in Elk Valley Coal.

gteel@theherald.canwest.com

[craneSpotter]

well...this is interesting. I can see it now "Western Canada's first operational nuclear power plant - sponsored by West Edmonoton Mall" haha. Canada's First Nations are becoming an economic force in the west. From gambling and wine to large developments in resources such as uranium and oil. Many think that nuclear is the future once again, especially for the developing world and Canada's energy hungry oil sands extraction and processing industry - hmmm thats almost an oxymoron


By Cassandra Kyle, TheStarPhoenix.com
Published: Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Edmonton's Ghermezian family has signed an agreement with a Saskatchewan First Nation to develop the largest uranium deposit in the province.

Triple Five Energy, a division of the Ghermezian's Triple Five Worldwide Organization, plans to explore what it calls one of the largest uranium discoveries in the world, one that happens to be located in northern Saskatchewan on the traditional lands of the English River First Nation (ERFN). At a Federation of Saskatchewan Indian Nations legislative assembly meeting in Saskatoon on Wednesday, the company signed an agreement with ERFN to enter into a joint venture.

Triple Five Energy also signed agreements with six additional First Nations located near North Battleford for the development of oil and gas resources. Company chair Nader Ghermezian expressed an interest in building an oil refinery on First Nations land and hinted at company exploration into Saskatchewan's potash reserves.

"By nature I might be called a capitalist, but we are a strong people with a social conscious. You are a strong people and I hope we can do more together," Ghermezian said in a speech to FSIN chiefs. Triple Five's chair said he wanted to "see if we can do something to bring more prosperity, happiness and equality to your people as the rest of the country."
No date has been set for the start of exploration, and Ghermezian declined to give a dollar figure for the English Lake project, only saying that it will cost a lot of money.

ERFN Chief Ralph Paul said he hopes the project will bring his people out of third-world living conditions. A 10 to 15 per cent share of revenue seems appropriate, said Paul, who added the First Nation is still in negotiations with Triple Five on the details.

The First Nation will hire its own environmental observers to watch development and ensure the land stays as sound as possible, the chief added.

Paul said while the development will be on traditional ERFN lands, legal rights are held by the province. The First Nation will fight for its rights to the land, he said.

Triple Five remains in negotiations with the Saskatchewan government.
Energy and Resources Minister Bill Boyd is set to comment on the announcement Wednesday afternoon.




Company behind largest malls in N.America looks for uranium in northern Sask

The Canadian Press - 26 minutes ago

REGINA - The company behind two of North America's biggest shopping malls says it's going to look for uranium in northern Saskatchewan.
In a news release issued Wednesday, the Triple Five Group, owned by Edmonton's Ghermezian family, says it has made economic development agreements with seven Saskatchewan First Nations.

One of the agreements is with the English River First Nation and will allow the company to look for and develop the uranium resource on traditional lands near Slush Lake southwest of the McArthur River mine.
"ERFN anticipates the joint venture with Triple Five will result in the development of uranium resources within ERFN's traditional territory," the release says.

"They further anticipate that it will result in economic benefits necessary to assist their community needs in housing, education, post-secondary education, employment training and infrastructure." There were no financial terms contained in the release.

Triple Five was founded by Jacob Ghermezian, who came to Canada from Iran with his sons Eskander, Nader, Raphael and Bahman in the 1960s.

The company is best known as the owner of West Edmonton Mall, considered North America's biggest shopping centre, and Minnesota's Mall of America, billed as the largest mall in the United States when it comes to total area.

But the company has many different ventures in several different sectors, including an energy division as well as a wholly-owned subsidiary named First Nuclear Corp.

Saskatchewan is the world's largest producer of uranium and the recently elected small-c conservative Saskatchewan Party government has made no secret of its interest in expanding the industry.

Speaking with reporters earlier in the week, Premier Brad Wall said Triple Five contacted his party during last fall's election campaign to ask about its policy on resource royalties.

In the news release, Triple Five chairman Nader Ghermezian credited Wall as a premier who has "given us great confidence in the long-term economic prosperity and political stability of his province.

"We are also very happy that we have expanded our operations from Alberta into Saskatchewan," Ghermezian said. "We believe Saskatchewan, like Alberta, will be a global economic leader in the natural resource sector for many years to come."

[harls]

Originally Posted by 401_King

i respect your opinion. but I dont believe in this stock. Tim hortons is a company primarily restricted in Canada. I dont believe it will work in the United States - ever. Lets be honest, the product is garbage. It does not appeal to Americans.

Tim Horton's is already in the states, isn't it? They aren't doing well?

[SpongeG]

they have a lot of locations and seem to be adding them in the USA

but they do have more competition there with much better product

after some gross soup i am anti tim hortons for food

[Nicko999]

Originally Posted by harls

Tim Horton's is already in the states, isn't it? They aren't doing well?

Yes, I've seem Tim Horton's in the NorthEastern states(Ohio, New York, etc.)
They are not doing that well because of StarBucks.

[graupner]

Few people know that until very recently, Tim Hortons was an american company. It's been a public canadian corporation for less than a year.

[Rico Rommheim]

Wasn't Tim Hortons at first a canadian company and then bought by Wendy's? Funny how I never heard that Tim's became a canadian copr once again

[Ruckus]

Another article on Triple Five's investment in Saskatchewan...

Triple Five Energy enters Saskatchewan with major undertakings
New economic development agreements to create dynamic new opportunities
or Saskatchewan and First Nations

SASKATOON, Feb. 13 /CNW/ - Triple Five Energy, a division of Triple Five
Worldwide Organization (Triple Five), today announced the signing of several
major economic development agreements with seven Saskatchewan First Nations
for the creation of new joint ventures in natural resource development
including oil, gas and uranium exploration. Negotiations took place with the
seven Chiefs and their Councils including English River First Nation,
Ahtahkakoop First Nation, Moosomin First Nation, Red Pheasant First Nation,
Saulteaux First Nation, Stoney Knoll First Nations and Sweetgrass First
Nation.

The signing ceremony took place today at 11 a.m. at TCU Place Convention
Centre in Saskatoon. In attendance were Triple Five Chairman Nader Ghermezian,
several other Triple Five officials and 75 Saskatchewan chiefs attending the
Federation of Saskatchewan Indian Nations.

"We are pleased to be able to enter into these agreements with
Saskatchewan First Nations," said Nader Ghermezian, chairman of Triple Five
headquartered in Edmonton, Alberta. "We believe that these undertakings by
Triple Five will be beneficial to the more than 140,000 First Nations members
in Saskatchewan and the Saskatchewan economy."

A major agreement signed calls for a joint venture between the English
River First Nation (ERFN) and Triple Five for significant exploration and
development of uranium on the English River territorial lands at Slush Lake,
Saskatchewan, where some internationally-recognized uranium companies are
currently active. ERFN anticipates the joint venture with Triple Five will
result in the development of uranium resources within ERFN's Traditional
Territory. They further anticipate that it will result in economic benefits
necessary to assist their community needs in housing, education,
post-secondary education, employment training and infrastructure. The
agreement recognizes ERFN's determination to protect their interests in the
land, water resources, medicine and spiritual values in their Traditional
Territory.

Mr. Ghermezian added, "We are proud to be involved in a province lead by
Premier Wall, a visionary and entrepreneurial premier who has encouraged and
given us great confidence in the long-term economic prosperity and political
stability of his Province."

"We are also very happy that we have expanded our operations from Alberta
into Saskatchewan," continued Mr. Ghermezian. "We believe Saskatchewan, like
Alberta, will be a global economic leader in the natural resource sector for
many years to come."

Triple Five has extensive involvement in the development of natural
resources in North America through Triple Five Energy as well as First Nuclear
Corporation that has been active in the uranium industry for the past
30 years.

Triple Five has also signed agreements with several of the nations to
provide them with a Horizon Plus Prepaid Credit Card, another division of
Triple Five, replacing the former cheque system utilized by those nations to
distribute funds to their members. Rather than having to issue cheques, the
nations can now load a prepaid amount on a reloadable credit card and the
funds will then be distributed directly to members' accounts. Consequently,
the agreements have resulted in major cost savings for the nations in
accounting and distribution of funds to their members.

Triple Five is also presently engaged in extensive real estate
development in Saskatchewan.

About Triple Five

Triple Five's activities encompass the development, management and
ownership of world-class ventures in many fields. These activities are diverse
and include major shopping centres, tourist destination resorts, office
buildings, engineering services, urban revitalization programs, recreation and
amusement parks, hotels, casino, residential developments, commercial and
industrial real estate, auto and industrial manufacturing, natural resource
development (oil, gas and minerals), technology, venture capital, banking and
financial services.

Triple Five is best known worldwide for the creation of its mega projects
such as the world's first and second largest tourism, retail and entertainment
complexes - the world-renowned West Edmonton Mall in Canada and Mall of
America in the United States. These two projects attract over 60 million
visitors annually, more than Disneyland, the Grand Canyon and Universal
Studios combined. Triple Five develops, manages, owns and operates its
worldwide enterprises with offices located throughout the world.

Additional comments from English River First Nation

Triple Five and the Chief and Council of English River First Nation
(ERFN) today announced the signing of a joint venture for the exploration and
development of uranium resources on the Traditional Territory of ERFN in Slush
Lake, Saskatchewan. This business venture results from the initiative and
foresight of former ERFN Chief Archie Campbell and Council, as well as current
Chief Ralph Paul and Council.

Chief Ralph Paul and the Council of ERFN are pleased with the support of
Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall and several provincial ministers including
Energy and Resources Minister Bill Boyd, First Nations and Aboriginal Affairs
Minister June Draude, and Environment Ministers Nancy Heppner in the pursuit
of the protection of the lands and development of resources within the
Traditional Territory of ERFN.

Source

[SpongeG]

Originally Posted by Rico Rommheim

Wasn't Tim Hortons at first a canadian company and then bought by Wendy's? Funny how I never heard that Tim's became a canadian copr once again

it was Canadian than it formed a Partnership with Wendys and than Wendy's bought it out and than decided to sell it off

it was in all the news - but i don't think anyone had realized it was ever owned by wendys

[Waterlooson]

Originally Posted by vid

It's down like 60% from its peak in the past year. It's past its prime.

In NY, RIM stock is down 29% from it's peak over the last 12 months ($137 vs. 96.8 which is today's close)

(137-96.8)/137 = 29 %

It's nowhere near down 60 %.... and you think my arithmetic is bad?

[vid]

Ok, so its down half as much as I guessed. It's still down, and according to the chart WaterlooInvestor posted, it's going to keep falling.

[Nicko999]

Originally Posted by graupner

Few people know that until very recently, Tim Hortons was an american company. It's been a public canadian corporation for less than a year.

Uh no! Tim Horton's is 100% Canadian! The first Tim Horton's was opened in Hamilton.

[vid]

Yes, then it became American now it's Canadian again. Etc. Etc.

Their 100th store, apparently, opened in Thunder Bay in 1978. Which is odd, as I had no idea what Tim Hortons was until 1999.

We went to a Tim Hortons in Sault Ste Marie in 1999 and asked for Robin's Eggs. DO NOT DO THAT.