Canada's 4th city

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I predict in 20 years as the size of the federal government is dramatically slashed and shifted to WFH and the oil patch sees a renaissance and recover this prediction will look exactly opposite to correct.

I'm not going to guess how Ottawa is going to go in the long run. But I'd at least hedge on Calgary. Aside from the obvious threat of decreasing oil demand in the long term (which even several pro-oil outfits now have in their 20 yr forecasts), the other problem is automation and outsourcing driving down O&G employment especially on the corporate/HQ side. We've seen how recent increases in production haven't coincided with employment or compensation increases. That money is mostly going to shareholders who don't live in Calgary. So unless there's real diversification (which is entirely possible), O&G is unlikely to be the population driver for Calgary it was in the past.

[WhipperSnapper]

White collar jobs will become automated across the board over the next 20 years. Not sure on an oil renaissance but, there could be a major rethink on the ecological reprocussions on hundreds of millions of battery storage devices.

Toronto's growth is in question when people can barely afford a shoebox in a tall people warehouse. This is an advantage to everyone else and perception means more than reality. It's an advantage to Calgary and Alberta providing the perception of higher paying jobs is maintained.

[ssiguy]

Calgary is more diversified than I think most here believe. Yes, O&G is a big player in Calgary but less so gov't in Ottawa which is been on a hiring spree in the last 8 years while Calgary has downsized it's O&G sector and broadened it's economic base.

Alberta's solid financial standing, low taxes, high wages, relatively affordable lifestyle, and, in Calgary's case, very high quality of life and access to the Rockies ensures Calgary's long-term growth.

Alberta is often associated {sometimes unfairly} to Texas and Texas is also a state that got it's economic foundation from oil yet it is the fastest growing state in the US for much the same reason Alberta is in Canada..............it offers a future for young people that California and BC no longer do.

Calgary will be the long-term beneficiary of this reality as, except in the arts, Calgary has Edmonton beat in nearly metric.

[Greetingsfromcanada]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'm not going to guess how Ottawa is going to go in the long run. But I'd at least hedge on Calgary. Aside from the obvious threat of decreasing oil demand in the long term (which even several pro-oil outfits now have in their 20 yr forecasts), the other problem is automation and outsourcing driving down O&G employment especially on the corporate/HQ side. We've seen how recent increases in production haven't coincided with employment or compensation increases. That money is mostly going to shareholders who don't live in Calgary. So unless there's real diversification (which is entirely possible), O&G is unlikely to be the population driver for Calgary it was in the past.

O&G companies have been, and continue, to slash unnecessary spending and jobs. The oil collapse already happened. Fracking changed the long term outlook a decade ago. Barring a collapse to <$30 USD oil, the oil sands companies are lean profit producing machine. Edmonton is far more exposed to direct job lose via automation and production slow down in decades ahead.


Calgary is growing faster than Ottawa because it doesn't have a greenbelt. Housing is more flexible cost wise and will fall back into the normal realm as immigration slows down from 2021-2023 peak. Calgary is emerging the key logistics hub for western Canada in a land strapped BC. It has factors going for it today that will give it scale that Ottawa won't be able to replicate in the future

[urbandreamer]

Whichever city attracts the most South Asian and African immigrants will be number four. I'm going to suggest Ottawa or Hamilton, but it could easily be Mississauga or Brampton.

Btw, it's clear Montreal will be #1 within 50 years. Not only from immigration, but a ton of young English Canadians are moving there.

[svlt]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

Btw, it's clear Montreal will be #1 within 50 years. Not only from immigration, but a ton of young English Canadians are moving there.

Saying that it's "clear" is nonsense without any statistical backing or trends indicating it. Montreal is likelier to be #3 in population than #1 in 50 years.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Greetingsfromcanada

Calgary is growing faster than Ottawa because it doesn't have a greenbelt. Housing is more flexible cost wise and will fall back into the normal realm as immigration slows down from 2021-2023 peak. Calgary is emerging the key logistics hub for western Canada in a land strapped BC. It has factors going for it today that will give it scale that Ottawa won't be able to replicate in the future

I don't think I disputed that Calgary will grow faster than Ottawa. See above. I question whether Calgary's current growth rate is sustainable given recent trends in employment in the O&G sector. Having a cheap house is great and all. But it's useless if you can't find work.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I don't think I disputed that Calgary will grow faster than Ottawa. See above. I question whether Calgary's current growth rate is sustainable given recent trends in employment in the O&G sector. Having a cheap house is great and all. But it's useless if you can't find work.

It absolutely isn't, in large part because the feds are going to pull back on non-permanent migration, which last year was biggest single contributor to the city's population growth. Of course that's true for a lot of places, so it won't just be Calgary that slows.

But I also expect Calgary's affordability advantage will keep narrowing, especially for homeownership. The Canadian Real Estate Association's benchmark price for a detached house in Calgary was about $515,000 in January 2022; now it's closing in on $700,000. That's no longer competitive with some of the affordability escape hatches that were popular two years ago (KWC, London, Halifax, etc) and it's significantly more expensive than the cheapest cities (Winnipeg, Saskatchewan's two, even somewhere like Moncton, which was last year's fastest-growing city, proportionally).

There's no question that Calgary will continue to post strong growth, but its reputation as an affordable city, except relative to Toronto/Vancouver, is quickly going to disappear.

[DesignerGuy]

Lets leave this at Ottawa and Calgary both ROCK!!!! Ottawa is the capital of a G7 nation with a high quality of life, high wages so will always attract investment and immigrants! Calgary is a major business hub with a high quality of life, high wages and lower taxes so will always attract investment and immigrants. I hope both cities prosper and do well. Have a nice Friday xo

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by svlt

Saying that it's "clear" is nonsense without any statistical backing or trends indicating it. Montreal is likelier to be #3 in population than #1 in 50 years.

You have to understand the way a racist thinks. He imagines white flight from the GTA will drive Montreal's population growth. That's what he means by "English Canadians". And the contrast being drawn to "Whichever city attracts the most South Asian and African immigrants".

Why the mods tolerate this crap is beyond me.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Calgary is more diversified than I think most here believe. Yes, O&G is a big player in Calgary but less so gov't in Ottawa which is been on a hiring spree in the last 8 years while Calgary has downsized it's O&G sector and broadened it's economic base.

Alberta's solid financial standing, low taxes, high wages, relatively affordable lifestyle, and, in Calgary's case, very high quality of life and access to the Rockies ensures Calgary's long-term growth.

Alberta is often associated {sometimes unfairly} to Texas and Texas is also a state that got it's economic foundation from oil yet it is the fastest growing state in the US for much the same reason Alberta is in Canada..............it offers a future for young people that California and BC no longer do.

Calgary will be the long-term beneficiary of this reality as, except in the arts, Calgary has Edmonton beat in nearly metric.

I do think Calgary is the odds-on favourite for solidifying the fourth spot, and I recognize how much its economy has diversified, but even so recent oil and gas slumps have made its unemployment rate, office vacancy rates, etc. shoot upwards, making them among the highest in the country at times.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

Whichever city attracts the most South Asian and African immigrants will be number four. I'm going to suggest Ottawa or Hamilton, but it could easily be Mississauga or Brampton.

Btw, it's clear Montreal will be #1 within 50 years. Not only from immigration, but a ton of young English Canadians are moving there.

No chance. Any true mass influx of English Canadians incabable of ordering a coffee in French would be met with tighter language laws to discourage them from coming.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Greetingsfromcanada

Calgary is growing faster than Ottawa because it doesn't have a greenbelt. Housing is more flexible cost wise and will fall back into the normal realm as immigration slows down from 2021-2023 peak. Calgary is emerging the key logistics hub for western Canada in a land strapped BC. It has factors going for it today that will give it scale that Ottawa won't be able to replicate in the future

The Greenbelt doesen't really impact Ottawa's growth in anyway. Developers have had no issues leapfrogging it. By this point, there's almost an equilibram between the population inside and outside the Greenbelt =/- 100k people in favour of inside (despite the lower representation on Council).

Ottawa's also been pushing hard for density within the Greenbelt. Towers are going up just about everywhere, particularly near the current and future O-Train. Single family zoning is being eliminated throughout the City and could allow fourplexes anywhere.

That said, I'm not aware of how things are going in Calgary in terms of u/c projects or zoning reform, so I can't really compare.

[urbandreamer]

I saw zero effects of these language laws in practice. For example, at a typical Greek diner with poutine etc on the Plateau, all the staff spoke English as their working language, the music being played was English, and all their customers frequently mixed English and French.

Government is always a decade behind on trends. Too late Mr Legault!

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

I saw zero effects of these language laws in practice. For example, at a typical Greek diner with poutine etc on the Plateau, all the staff spoke English as their working language, the music being played was English, and all their customers frequently mixed English and French.

Government is always a decade behind on trends. Too late Mr Legault!

That's exactly why a bigger clawback is inevitably coming.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by Acajack

That's exactly why a bigger clawback is inevitably coming.

There is a very fragile balance to maintain.

[urbandreamer]

It will be amusing to watch the rebellion! Money talks, and Westmount elite will inevitably win!

Btw, I found strong parallels between New England/Yankee culture and French Canadians. They're both introverted, self absorbed, socially liberal, strong cultural identity and Old Stock history, outdoorsy and live in similar built forms, ie dense 1700s era 3 story buildings.

So, French Yankees!

[goodgrowth]

I just disagree with the takes on Alberta in here. This forum delivers a reliable but biased "established-in-Ontario" centric view because that's most of the demographics but I'm not sure that is a good read on this country as a whole.

Was the Alberta economy at it's worst ever worse off than the economy of Atlantic Canada? People using the term rust belt obviously have never lived in a "no-belt-at-all" region.

The views on Alberta's economy are a bit outdated and simplistic imo. The economy is further along in diversifying than people are aware and most of the oil and gas extraction are mature projects, not in some boom/bust phase. The projects are also now hitting post-payout phase which means more royalties to the government.

There is also just the plain fact that Alberta continues to be a good option because there are VERY FEW good balanced options in this country. It's either high cost of living region or low population/stagnant economy region. Alberta at least offers a choice in the middle for many. Disagree all you want but the past 30+ years of internal migration in this country basically confirms it.

In my opinion it's in an optimal position for the future.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

That said, I'm not aware of how things are going in Calgary in terms of u/c projects or zoning reform, so I can't really compare.

I haven't been following closely but I gather that upzoning to allow multiplexes as-of-right is a pretty contentious issue in Calgary - though probably a no-brainer for forumers here. My stepdad actually called me the other night all flustered that their (now) wealthy neighbourhood is going to be RUINED by poor people and they have the right to maintain the area in stasis. He's actually contributing a non-insubstantial sum of money to some legal defense which I attempted to talk him out of. And tried to explain that the land economics of tearing down $1.5M houses for 3 units doesn't make a whole lot of sense unless they are ultra-luxury.

It was the very stereotypical NIMBY conversation that we see posted in jest sometimes. Interestingly he had the same reaction when the LRT was extended to their area years ago yet ended up using it for the last few years of his career and talked about how much more convenient it was compared to driving...

In my opinion I don't think Alberta is going to collapse from the eventual shift away from oil as it is indeed more diversified. But it may not see the wild growth levels currently occurring, particularly as Calgary is no longer a cheap city. Similarly I think the predictions of collapse in Ottawa are very much overstated. As long as Canada is growing both places will likely manage. Toronto also suffered a massive loss of jobs in the 90s due to the collapse/off-shoring of manufacturing and managed - it was actually a time when a lot of my colleagues a decade older than I am were able to purchase housing in the central city.

[urbandreamer]

As I entered the Finger Lakes area of New York State, Canada disappeared from my thoughts. Likewise, while in Montreal, I thought, this city feels more like an American east coast city than anywhere in Canada.

So, we're biased based on location. I enjoyed Alberta and Saskatchewan and Manitoba while I traveled through the region, but in the grand scheme of things, Canada's Western economy is highly dependent on exploiting resources. Today, oil stocks are doing well, so of course people are migrating to this area.

At some point, I suspect the Great Lakes region will boom again, causing places like Cleveland and Buffalo to grow.

What I found somewhat depressing, is Canada's history is being erased. We're tearing down our old buildings in hamlets, villages, towns and cities, replaced with mediocre ugly 1) mcmansions in English Canada 2) flats in Quebec and top 30 ROC cities.