Statistics Canada Reports II

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

At this rate it won't be long before we pass Italy in GDP.

Canada moved ahead of Italy briefly in 2022, but barring an unforeseen event, we'll surely head back in front 2025 or 2026. When we do, we'll move ahead for good.

Around 2026-2027, Canada should start seeing the full benefits of the immigration bump as newly arrived become established and many move beyond the minimum wage jobs newcomers typically take upon arrival. As we know, it takes quite awhile before immigrants move towards national averages in terms of income levels. We've seen huge investments in our EV industry + lots of mega projects at various stages. All of these things bode well for our economy over the medium term.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Is that pass them on the way up, or pass them on Italy's way down?

Oh is Italy headed in the wrong direction? Yikes... guess we're not the only ones with problems lol.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Canada moved ahead of Italy briefly in 2022, but barring an unforeseen event, we'll surely head back in front 2025 or 2026. When we do, we'll move ahead for good.

Around 2026-2027, Canada should start seeing the full benefits of the immigration bump as newly arrived become established and many move beyond the minimum wage jobs newcomers typically take upon arrival. As we know, it takes quite awhile before immigrants move towards national averages in terms of income levels. We've seen huge investments in our EV industry + lots of mega projects at various stages. All of these things bode well for our economy over the medium term.

I suspect it'll take a lot longer than 2 years from now.

Before the Libs quadrupled intake in 2022, the median income of immigrants was rising and approaching parity. I think South Asian men actually made more than the average native-born Canadian. Of course, this was when the South Asians coming over were engineers and scientists and not aspiring "business" grads. The South Asian population has probably grown by about 40% in the last 3 years, mostly via students and TFWs. That number is going to be much lower the next time someone calculates it

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by rdaner

Just a quick note from someone who lives in a central Toronto neighbourhood that has seen a huge increase in newcomers this past two years. Bring it on!!! The people coming in are enthusiastic, smart and young! We are getting really amazing restaurants/cafes opening up that are innovative and fun. No one is homeless and starving. This wave will be as significant to the culture and development of the city as the arrival of English Quebeckers in the late70s!

Really? All we've got is a lot more Door Douche guys on scooters.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Really? All we've got is a lot more Door Douche guys on scooters.

I’m sure it’s sarcasm. I was already sure even before I reached the part where he says that no one is homeless (which pretty much clinches it, no? The entire area is swimming in tent cities nowadays. Don’t think any TO central parks could have escaped the phenomenon.)

(Same with his “no one is starving”. He’s gotta be aware that food bank use has absolutely skyrocketed. Plenty of food banks are running out of food and can’t meet demand anymore.)

FYI, my “unemployment is up? No problem, let’s import more FNSs with a pulse, each one creates 1.2 jobs!” was also sarcasm!

[Aimhigh]

Only people somehow unaffected by this "bump" in immigration would say, "bring it on" Frankly, you'd have to be highly ignorant of the damage this unmitigated immigration is causing.

Up until the past couple of years, I was always pro-immigration. The more the merrier, I said. Well, I was wrong. The government is facilitating wage suppression, skyrocketing costs and putting Canadians second in their own country. There are simply too many. If they were doctors or engineers or something, well, then we could deal with it. That's not what we're getting. We've essentially allowed every scumbag in the immigration industry to sucker countless immigrants into coming here so that they can live as indentured servants. At the same time, their mere presence is driving rents so far skyward that if you're not a doctor, engineer, etc., then you're stuck sharing a bedroom with 4 of your closest friends. It's a scam for the immigrants and it's a scam for Canadians. Canada should be closed to immigration indefinitely until we can get our act together and keep the standard of living reasonably high. At least no lower than it was prior to the pandemic.

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by theman23

I suspect it'll take a lot longer than 2 years from now.

Before the Libs quadrupled intake in 2022, the median income of immigrants was rising and approaching parity. I think South Asian men actually made more than the average native-born Canadian. Of course, this was when the South Asians coming over were engineers and scientists and not aspiring "business" grads. The South Asian population has probably grown by about 40% in the last 3 years, mostly via students and TFWs. That number is going to be much lower the next time someone calculates it

Yes and no.

When you look at the older cohort of South Asian Canadians who came (or their parents came) in the 80s and 90s, a very substantial chunk of it is comprised of refugees: Sri Lankan Tamil refugees fleeing the Sri Lankan Civil War and Indian Punjabi Sikh refugees fleeing the Khalistan conflict.

South Asian Canadians, even before the recent influx, were comparatively more working class and also unfortunately more involved in crime when compared to their American counterparts, because American requirements are harder for Indians (due to equal per country caps on immigration that adversely affect highly populous countries).

But you are right that aside from these two big segments of the South Asian Canadian population, immigrants from South Asia were mainly highly skilled ones, including many engineers, while the recent influx is low skilled.

[svlt]

Originally Posted by Nashe

It feels like we're in one of those bulking-cutting cycles for fitness. Likely the "bulking" phase.

We're ranked anywhere from 8th-12th over the next decade on the GDP pecking order depending how badly other countries near us do more than what we do ourselves at this stage

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by saffronleaf

Yes and no.

When you look at the older cohort of South Asian Canadians who came (or their parents came) in the 80s and 90s, a very substantial chunk of it is comprised of refugees: Sri Lankan Tamil refugees fleeing the Sri Lankan Civil War and Indian Punjabi Sikh refugees fleeing the Khalistan conflict.

South Asian Canadians, even before the recent influx, were comparatively more working class and also unfortunately more involved in crime when compared to their American counterparts, because American requirements are harder for Indians (due to equal per country caps on immigration that adversely affect highly populous countries).

But you are right that aside from these two big segments of the South Asian Canadian population, immigrants from South Asia were mainly highly skilled ones, including many engineers, while the recent influx is low skilled.

Within Greater Vancouver the South Asian community have been very actively involved in agriculture and the lumber business for decades. (In addition to the countries you mentioned, there were also quite a few who came here from Fiji.)

They are over represented (compared to the overall population) in the construction industry, the taxi industry and trucking. They don't seem to be especially concentrated in engineering or most other professions, although there are many medical professionals with a South Asian heritage, and in Surrey where they represent over a third of the population you'll obviously find them in pretty much any type of employment.

It's notable how many of the huge recent influx of Amazon tech employees, moving into their million square foot office at 'The Post', appear to have South Asian ancestry, I don't have any insight into where they have been recruited from.

[saucylito]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Hardly surprising. All growth is now immigration and immigrants overwhelmingly head to bigger cities and Saskatoon & Regina just aren't in Winnipeg's league in term of urban amenities added to the fact that the Peg isn't anymore expensive nor is the winter any more brutal.

Canada's immigration rate seems quite high for a country with same population as California. California has had a lot of out migration recently though, to other states, like Texas and Utah etc.

Is immigration into Canada provinces evenly spread out?

https://moving2canada.com/news-and-f...ada-pr-report/

Found it, looking at Provinces like Saskatchewan and Manitoba in the link, they seem fairly evenly matched though. Even the smaller two cities listed above, together seem to match Winnipeg, even though each city is half the size of Winnipeg.

I wonder what kind of urban amenities Winnipeg has attracting immigrants. In America the better jobs and higher wages in certain States is biggest factor now for immigration.

As an example, Texas has a GDP that would put it in top ten countries in the World if it were it's own country.

https://gov.texas.gov/top-texas-touts-economy

Are Provinces in Canada disproportionate with GDP too?

[Justanothermember]

Originally Posted by saucylito

Canada's immigration rate seems quite high for a country with same population as California. California has had a lot of out migration recently though, to other states, like Texas and Utah etc.

Is immigration into Canada provinces evenly spread out?

https://moving2canada.com/news-and-f...ada-pr-report/

Found it, looking at Provinces like Saskatchewan and Manitoba in the link, they seem fairly evenly matched though. Even the smaller two cities listed above, together seem to match Winnipeg, even though each city is half the size of Winnipeg.

Winnipeg is now almost 3 times the size of Saskatoon and almost 4 times the size of Regina.

[LuluBobo]

Originally Posted by Justanothermember

Winnipeg is now almost 3 times the size of Saskatoon and almost 4 times the size of Regina.

I wouldn't go that far.

Winnipeg is 2.59x the size of Saskatoon and 3.36x the size of Regina.

10 years ago (2013) it was 2.67x the size of Saskatoon and 3.33x the size of Regina.

[craner]

Now there are some precise stats !

[Dalreg]

Originally Posted by Justanothermember

Winnipeg is now almost 3 times the size of Saskatoon and almost 4 times the size of Regina.

More like 2.5 times the size of Saskatoon and 3.5 times the size of Regina.

[saucylito]

Originally Posted by craner

Now there are some precise stats !

Those stats are very concise.

The fact Saskatchewan matches Manitoba immigration levels probably because of similar rural and similar urban ratio, says a lot.

Texas has 9 out of 10 fastest growing cities in the USA.
Not sure if this matches Canada's fastest growing Provinces with fastest growing cities.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/con...ere-rcna163340

But I imaging having even just one fast growing city like a Calgary (or Edmonton) can make all the difference for a Province as a whole too, like in Alberta.

[ssiguy]

Canada has just barely overtaken Italy in GDP BUT that is only because our population is soaring and Italy's shrinking. The Italian economy is expected to grow by 1% per year but that represents at per-capita gain of 1.25% while Canada's economy is expected to grow by 1.75% but, due to obscene population growth, our per-capita GDP is shrinking by 1.5% a year. In other words Italians are getting richer while we are getting poorer.

In terms of output per hour worked, Canada is now behind both Italy and only slightly ahead of Spain and both countries enjoy far lower levels of household indebtedness than Canada.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Canada has just barely overtaken Italy in GDP BUT that is only because our population is soaring and Italy's shrinking. The Italian economy is expected to grow by 1% per year but that represents at per-capita gain of 1.25% while Canada's economy is expected to grow by 1.75% but, due to obscene population growth, our per-capita GDP is shrinking by 1.5% a year. In other words Italians are getting richer while we are getting poorer.

In terms of output per hour worked, Canada is now behind both Italy and only slightly ahead of Spain and both countries enjoy far lower levels of household indebtedness than Canada.

Italy also has nearly 20 million more people than Canada, so us topping them in GDP is quite an accomplishment

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by Nite

Italy also has nearly 20 million more people than Canada, so us topping them in GDP is quite an accomplishment

mama mia

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by saucylito

The fact Saskatchewan matches Manitoba immigration levels probably because of similar rural and similar urban ratio, says a lot.
.

This is false. Manitoba is attracting more immigrants than Saskatchewan, in both real numbers, and per-capita rates. Not by a landslide, but enough to see Manitoba increase it's lead in population compared to Saskatchewan in the last 2-3 years.

[ericmacm]

Originally Posted by Nite

Italy also has nearly 20 million more people than Canada, so us topping them in GDP is quite an accomplishment

Italy has some major systemic issues that have been difficult to overcome - there is a major north-south economic divide, where the north produces over double the GDP that the south does, despite the populations of both areas not being vastly different. The south of the country seems to also have a disproportionate amount of issues with corruption which is a drain on the economy. Combining this with their issues of emigration and aging population, the country is not in fantastic shape.

I’d say that us surpassing them will be a bit of Column A and Column B in terms of whether or not it is principally Italy declining or Canada growing. What will be interesting to see in the future is if we end up catching up to France/UK once population growth puts us in their population neighbourhood (50-60M). The UK is set to experience some major problems over the next decade, and France’s prospects seem to be a bit better.