The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Developing economies have growing demand for energy which can't all be met by one source. And developing countries also care about developing their export sectors. These are advanced concepts for the whataboutism brigade, I know.

China has not been a “developing” economy for some time. It has money for high speed trains to nowhere, ghost cities, space stations, wacky river diversion schemes, and aircraft carriers. It has the money to dramatically reduce coal consumption if it wanted to. It just doesn’t want to.

[MonctonRad]

I'm going to try and nurse another four years out of my existing vehicles, and then look at buying an electric probably in about 2025. Hopefully they will have found ways to improve the range to 700-800 km by then.

If one could go on a road trip and only have to stop once every day for a recharge, this would make all the difference. You could stop for a recharge and eat lunch (or supper) while you wait.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

China has not been a “developing” economy for some time.

It's pretty easy to make random claims if you want to use facts to back it up. It's still a country where a quarter of the workforce is employed in agriculture, typical of most developing countries. Their GDP per capita is less than a quarter of Canada's. Best case scenario, one could call them a middle income. Insinuating that they have the same economic capacity as any developed country is nonsense though.

Originally Posted by acottawa

It has money for high speed trains to nowhere, ghost cities, space stations, wacky river diversion schemes, and aircraft carriers.

Quantity has its own quality as the phrase goes. There are certain things they can build because of size. And of course, there's certain things they build because of other ambitions and just sheer incompetence.

Originally Posted by acottawa

It has the money to dramatically reduce coal consumption if it wanted to. It just doesn’t want to.

Indeed. Which is why we should join with the Europeans to tariff them. But kinda hard to argue that one if we don't maintain GHG reduction policies at home.

We should also try and bring back manufacturing from China. Including of all those emergent sectors like EVs and photovoltaics. But whenever the topic of industrial policy comes up, folks like yourself are also first to the mics to bitch about that.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I'm going to try and nurse another four years out of my existing vehicles, and then look at buying an electric probably in about 2025.

I have a 2013. I am thinking along these lines too. We'll see what the condition of the vehicle is in a year or two. Might buy a plug in hybrid if put in to a tight spot.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Hopefully they will have found ways to improve the range to 700-800 km by then.

The question is how much you'd be willing to pay to get that kind of range. I have no doubts that some higher end vehicles (the long range models of Teslas for example) will have 700-800 km ranges by 2025. But would you want to pay that much?

Given that charger networks are improving by leaps and bounds, I think 500-600 km nominal is a good target if you live in the Maritimes and are mostly sticking to the Trans-Canada.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

If one could go on a road trip and only have to stop once every day for a recharge, this would make all the difference. You could stop for a recharge and eat lunch (or supper) while you wait.

All the vehicles coming now (mostly MY2021 onwards) with 800V architecture can basically add about 200-300 km of range in about 20 mins. You can already fill up (400-600km) in about 45-60 mins. So really, a road trip is more like: leave with home with a full battery, drive 3-4 hrs, stop for lunch and charge to almost full, drive 2-3 hrs stop for a long coffee break (15-20 mins), drive 3-4 hrs and park your car at the hotel to charge over night.

There's a youtuber who tests EVs in Norway (Tesla Bjorn). He puts every car through a 1000km challenge. Basically he sees how long it takes with a full battery and en route charging to cover 1000 km. He tests in summer and winter. Most newer EVs are in the 10-11 hr range. So not that far from a gas car. Higher performing EVs can all increasingly do sub 10 hrs. That's basically what I expect to be the standard in 4-5 years.

[q12]

Climate change: Science failed to predict flood and heat intensity
By Roger Harrabin
BBC environment analyst

Top climate scientists have admitted they failed to predict the intensity of the German floods and the North American heat dome.

They've correctly warned over decades that a fast-warming climate would bring worse bursts of rain and more damaging heatwaves.

But they say their computers are not powerful enough to accurately project the severity of those extremes.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57863205

[Hackslack]

I have a 2008 with close to 200k km on it, looking to ride it out as long as I can. Though I have been quite consistently looking on autotrader for second hand EVs and there really is nothing affordable at this point in time... a lot of Hyundai Kona EVs for $50k...

I was out camping last weekend, and saw all the massive fifth wheels people like to "glamp" in... will affordable EV trucks be available for a reasonable price in the next 9 years to pull such RVs?

[Truenorth00]

And yet quite a few folks think that it's a great idea to throw the precautionary principle out the window and go full Thanos with 3°C warming.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

I have a 2008 with close to 200k km on it, looking to ride it out as long as I can. Though I have been quite consistently looking on autotrader for second hand EVs and there really is nothing affordable at this point in time... a lot of Hyundai Kona EVs for $50k...

As long as there's a shortage of EVs and high gas prices, used BEV prices will be sky high. We are going to have to get lots of EVs on the market, at higher capabilities and lower costs, to devalue what's on the used market substantially. That's going to take 5-10 years.

Originally Posted by Hackslack

I was out camping last weekend, and saw all the massive fifth wheels people like to "glamp" in... will affordable EV trucks be available for a reasonable price in the next 9 years to pull such RVs?

No reason to doubt that a 2030 F150 Lightening can't do the job.

People forget how long a decade is and how much technology can evolve in that time. A decade ago Tesla was still a year away from launching the Model S. The base 2012 offering was a USD 57k Model S with only 160mi/256km of range. In 2021, the base offering is a USD 40k Model 3, with 250 mi/400 km of range. A decade from now now their base offering is going to be a USD 25k Model 2 hatchback with 600 km of range. And they'll probably have USD 60k Cybertrucks for sale with > 1000 km of range.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's pretty easy to make random claims if you want to use facts to back it up. It's still a country where a quarter of the workforce is employed in agriculture, typical of most developing countries. Their GDP per capita is less than a quarter of Canada's. Best case scenario, one could call them a middle income. Insinuating that they have the same economic capacity as any developed country is nonsense though.



Quantity has its own quality as the phrase goes. There are certain things they can build because of size. And of course, there's certain things they build because of other ambitions and just sheer incompetence.



Indeed. Which is why we should join with the Europeans to tariff them. But kinda hard to argue that one if we don't maintain GHG reduction policies at home.

We should also try and bring back manufacturing from China. Including of all those emergent sectors like EVs and photovoltaics. But whenever the topic of industrial policy comes up, folks like yourself are also first to the mics to bitch about that.

I think carbon-based tariffs are a great idea, although it would be better to have a carbon based VAT. I can’t imagine Freeland or Carney doing something like that and China is the country Trudeau admires the most.

You realize if countries don’t do anything about climate change until they have Canadian levels of GDP per Canada then nothing the more affluent countries do matter. Check out the climate calculator, try to find a solution that only involves the West.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

And yet quite a few folks think that it's a great idea to throw the precautionary principle out the window and go full Thanos with 3°C warming.

You’re delusional if you think 3 degrees isn’t happening. The math is the math whether you believe it or not.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by acottawa

You’re delusional if you think 3 degrees isn’t happening. The math is the math whether you believe it or not.

You've decided to take the fifth and final stage of climate denial: Stage 5: It's too Late
I ask again:
You really don't care that global warming is wreaking havoc on our ecosystems, will require hundreds of millions of people to relocate, and will ultimately be disastrous to economic growth?

You'd rather have this outcome so that you and anyone else can, how did you put it, use as much energy as they see fit?

I can't stand this insensitivity and undying selfishness. Why should anyone care about what you want, when you haven't indicated even the slightest bit concern for others and for the ecosystem?

[rbt]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

You've decided to take the fifth and final stage of climate denial: Stage 5: It's too Late

Erm. There is no "It's too late". There's only "It's too late to hold to N°C" as it can always be a higher increase. 1000ppm CO2 is entirely within the ability of current technology if we want to find out what a 7.8°C change might be like; might even get an occasional 45 degree day (plus humidex) in Toronto at that level.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

You've decided to take the fifth and final stage of climate denial: Stage 5: It's too Late
I ask again:
You really don't care that global warming is wreaking havoc on our ecosystems, will require hundreds of millions of people to relocate, and will ultimately be disastrous to economic growth?

You'd rather have this outcome so that you and anyone else can, how did you put it, use as much energy as they see fit?

I can't stand this insensitivity and undying selfishness. Why should anyone care about what you want, when you haven't indicated even the slightest bit concern for others and for the ecosystem?

What outcome I want is irrelevant, just as what outcome you want is irrelevant. The math is the math. Just because you don’t like the math doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. There is no current path to sub 2 degree warming.

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-have-we-spent

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by accord1999

I support that people should be allowed to use energy based on their conscience and budget to enjoy life as they see fit.

I find this view to be reprehensible. You just don't give a shit.

If this is what you truly believe, I won't waste any time reading your commentary on the subject.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by acottawa

What outcome I want is irrelevant, just as what outcome you want is irrelevant. The math is the math. Just because you don’t like the math doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. There is no current path to sub 2 degree warming.

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-have-we-spent

The math is the math because for too long there have been many self-centred people like yourself that put a fight against any solutions.

Christ I don't know if you are worse than those people that deny ACC. You don't deny it; you simply don't give a shit.

[MolsonExport]

According to NASA:
Sea Level Will Rise 1-8 feet by 2100
Arctic Likely to Become Ice-Free
Hurricanes Will Become Stronger and More Intense
More Droughts and Heat Waves
Changes in Precipitation Patterns


Threat multiplication (compounding effects):
The cryosphere – the frozen water on Earth – is melting. A warmer atmosphere causes the planet's snowpack, glaciers and sea and freshwater ice to melt rapidly. Melting glaciers and polar ice sheets contribute to unprecedented sea level rise. Melting sea ice exposes darker ocean waters, which absorb more sunlight than ice – heating the ocean more and speeding up a relentless cycle of melting and heating.
The oceans are getting hotter, expanding and becoming more acidic. They are getting hotter because they absorb 90 percent of the extra heat in the climate. This shift causes the oceans to expand, contributing to higher sea levels, and strips corals of their vivid colors. Meanwhile, nearly a third of carbon dioxide emissions end up in the oceans, triggering a chemistry change that makes the water more acidic, dissolving the shells of sea creatures. The ocean is almost 40 percent more acidic than it used to be.
Weather is getting more extreme. Heatwaves are more frequent worldwide. The increased evaporation of water is like fuel for storms, exacerbating extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. Rising sea levels make storm surges capable of much greater damage. In more naturally arid areas, droughts and wildfires are intensifying.


Climate change is a major threat to agriculture. Where, how and when we grow food is vitally connected to our climate's normal patterns. Worldwide, farmers are struggling to keep up with shifting weather patterns and increasingly unpredictable water supplies. Farms are more likely to face attacks from weeds, diseases and pests, which affect yield. Extreme events also threaten crop yields, such as through flooding or reduced water supply.

Warmer, polluted air affects our health. A warmer atmosphere increases the formation of ground-level ozone – also known as smog – in polluted regions. Smog irritates lungs and triggers asthma attacks. Smoke from wildfires further degrades the air. Extreme summer heat means more deaths during heatwaves. Warmer freshwater makes it easier for disease-causing agents (such as bacteria) to grow and contaminate drinking water.

Infrastructure and transportation are at risk. Hot weather, flooding and other extreme weather events damage infrastructure, put heavy burdens on electrical supplies and disrupt how we travel and commute.


Animals, insects, and plants—already threatened by habitat destruction and pollution—will fare even worse. Only a small amount of warming will kill 70 to 90 percent of the world’s coral reefs; up to half of plant and animal species in the world’s most naturally rich areas could face extinction.

Below are some of the regional impacts of global change forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:

North America: Decreasing snowpack in the western mountains; 5-20 percent increase in yields of rain-fed agriculture in some regions; increased frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves in cities that currently experience them.
Latin America: Gradual replacement of tropical forest by savannah in eastern Amazonia; risk of significant biodiversity loss through species extinction in many tropical areas; significant changes in water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation.
Europe: Increased risk of inland flash floods; more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion from storms and sea level rise; glacial retreat in mountainous areas; reduced snow cover and winter tourism; extensive species losses; reductions of crop productivity in southern Europe.
Africa: By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress; yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 percent in some regions by 2020; agricultural production, including access to food, may be severely compromised.
Asia: Freshwater availability projected to decrease in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia by the 2050s; coastal areas will be at risk due to increased flooding; death rate from disease associated with floods and droughts expected to rise in some regions.

[MolsonExport]

Economic studies have consistently shown that mitigation (such as putting a price on carbon emissions) is several times less costly than trying to adapt to climate change. The above chart shows total costs for action on climate change by 2100 to be about $11 trillion while damages will be about $8 trillion. With inaction, however, damages by 2100 will be around $20 trillion. By 2200, these numbers shoot up (over $30 trillion if action taken, or over $70 if no action taken). Source: The economic impacts of carbon pricing, SkepticalScience.com, March 1, 2012

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

You'd rather have this outcome so that you and anyone else can, how did you put it, use as much energy as they see fit?

I can't stand this insensitivity and undying selfishness.

Because fuck you, got mine.

What's unique though, is that most folks tend to want a better future for their kids and grandkids. It's a rather nihilistic take to look at your kids, shrug your shoulders and think, "Well, they are fucked anyway so might as well get 10¢ off on gas."

I sincerely hope the next generation looks at these folks with the same disgust as we look at cults like QAnon.

[Hackslack]

Should we be looking at China like they are Nazis?.. they’re still building massive amounts disgusting coal power plants online. Forget about some of the attitudes you might seem to think people have on here, the future of our children’s lives very much sits in the hands of that one nation.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

The math is the math because for too long there have been many self-centred people like yourself that put a fight against any solutions.

Exactly. How much basic shit have these folks complained about that would have more benefits than just cutting emissions?

acottawa is still pooh-poohing rail improvements like HFR. Heaven forbid his frequent flier status get threatened by rail travel mandates from Ottawa....

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Christ I don't know if you are worse than those people that deny ACC. You don't deny it; you simply don't give a shit.

Credit where it's due. He cares very deeply about climate change when it comes to helping the whataboutism with China and bashing Trudeau....