Rural Commuter Rail

[Charles5]

Charles Ivey (representative of the financial investment group) seems to be contradicting what Joseph Potvin has been saying along. In the article (link) he states "the rail service will start in stages, depending on where the demand is greatest and the stations can be built."

Meanwhile Joseph Potvin has been adamant all along that this was an all or nothing thing, that without the economies of scale and total regional coverage it wouldn't work. (example here, click on 'comments') "The property value increment that we're interested in under a "Property-Powered Rail" financial approach is dependent upon the extent of service throughout the region. Not a lot of property value added can be expected through stations on a single line. Also, the work required in getting part of the system is about equal to the needed to get the entire network operating and the value to citizens attempting to traverse the region rises exponentially."

Then again, there are an awful lot of inconsistencies in what we've seen from MOOSE over the years, so no surprise here.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by roger1818

I think we are going to have to agree to disagree on this theoretical outcome.



I doubt if there was an alternate plan in place, but all the research that showed a tunnel was necessary was probably there but not publicly available, since the old plan didn't have one.

I don't think much research was needed. It was pretty obvious to anybody that Albert and Slater were reaching capacity.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by zzptichka

We love rail. As long as it doesn't kill already established and successful rail in the process.
Moose has a good cheap option for their regional rail without disrupting O-Train LRT but for some reason they want to go after an expensive and unrealistic pie in the sky instead. Without any money for it to boot.

I don't think there would be sufficient demand to go east of the VIA station on the corridor suggested. However, if there was a Phase 2 eventually, I would build along the old CPR right of way and then switch over to South Orleans Transitway right of way. A combination of that and the 94 bus on Innes providing a connection at Blair might provide very good service for the south half of Orleans and lots of connectivity both to downtown and points west.

I could see stations at March Road, Highway 417 (Confederation Line connection), Moodie, Richmond Road, Queensway-Carleton Hospital, Greenbank, Woodroffe (future Confederation Line connection), Merivale, Prince of Wales, Riverside, Ellwood Junction/Mooney's Bay (Trillium Line Connection) , Billings Bridge, Hosptial Connector, VIA station (Confederation Line connection)

Phase 2 St. Laurent, Innes, Cyrville, Anderson (P&R), Navan Road, Mer Bleue, 10th Line, Innes, Trim

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Charles5

Charles Ivey (representative of the financial investment group) seems to be contradicting what Joseph Potvin has been saying along. In the article (link) he states "the rail service will start in stages, depending on where the demand is greatest and the stations can be built."

.

Phase 1 - tourist train to Carp
Phase 2 - 23rd century when places like Maxville have sufficient population to support a computer train

[Charles5]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Phase 1 - tourist train to Carp

Well, they've got Thomas the Train in Niagara. Which of Thomas' friends do you think they'll have running the route out to Carp. Options at link.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I don't think much research was needed. It was pretty obvious to anybody that Albert and Slater were reaching capacity.

Yet, remarkably the council of the day thought servicing raccoons in Riverside South should be priority. I think the bureaucrats knew exactly what was wrong in the plan. And they pivoted pretty quickly when the opportunity presented itself in my opinion.

They still took their time and went through the process. But their analysis after the change was on point in every presentation, open house, etc. which I attended.

Most interesting was how early they started explaining the costs that would be saved from converting the central transitway to rail. Clearly, that's something they'd looked at before.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by zzptichka

We love rail. As long as it doesn't kill already established and successful rail in the process.
Moose has a good cheap option for their regional rail without disrupting O-Train LRT but for some reason they want to go after an expensive and unrealistic pie in the sky instead. Without any money for it to boot.

You are forgetting the condition of the track. I redrew your map but colour coded it.

• Green track is good Class 4 track (max speed 80 mph/129 km/h) owned by VIA Rail. The only problem is it is single track and would be very expensive to upgrade. Without doing that, trains would have to wait for VIA's trains, potentially delaying trains by and extra 5-10 minutes.
• Yellow track is mediocre Class 2 track (max speed 25 mph/40 km/h) which is quite slow for a section of track where you would want to pick up speed.
• Red track is poor Class 1 track (max speed 15 mph/24 km/h), which would be painfully slow as you watch bicycles passing you.

By no means is this "cheap" as significant track upgrades would be necessary and you are taking the long way around and not even getting downtown. Not that Moose's option is any better, it is just that with the track that didn't get torn up by the NCC in the 60s, there aren't any good options for commuter rail from Kanata.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by roger1818

[/spoiler]

You are forgetting the condition of the track. I redrew your map but colour coded it.

• Green track is good Class 4 track (max speed 80 mph/129 km/h) owned by VIA Rail. The only problem is it is single track and would be very expensive to upgrade. Without doing that, trains would have to wait for VIA's trains, potentially delaying trains by and extra 5-10 minutes.
• Yellow track is mediocre Class 2 track (max speed 25 mph/40 km/h) which is quite slow for a section of track where you would want to pick up speed.
• Red track is poor Class 1 track (max speed 15 mph/24 km/h), which would be painfully slow as you watch bicycles passing you.

By no means is this "cheap" as significant track upgrades would be necessary and you are taking the long way around and not even getting downtown. Not that Moose's option is any better, it is just that with the track that didn't get torn up by the NCC in the 60s, there aren't any good options for commuter rail from Kanata.

We are kidding ourselves to think that this routing would be for downtown commuters. Maybe my suggested Phase 2 would work for those coming in from South Orleans, but not from the south or west end. It would be for cross-town transit riders. The trains would have to be fast if we hope to lure some drivers away from their cars.

[Gat-Train]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

There is nothing more effective on encouraging sprawl as being 100% dependent on automobiles and roads.

I completely agree. I don't know if people here have visited Richmond or Manotick, but those areas are growing, and it's low density. As much as I hate to say it, it seems like sprawl isn't stopping anytime soon, so the best we can do is try to direct it and get exurbanite commuters out of their cars.

[OtrainUser]

Originally Posted by Gat-Train

I completely agree. I don't know if people here have visited Richmond or Manotick, but those areas are growing, and it's low density. As much as I hate to say it, it seems like sprawl isn't stopping anytime soon, so the best we can do is try to direct it and get exurbanite commuters out of their cars.

Traffic from the exurban communities is not a problem, the problem with downtown congestion is from the suburbs (Kanata, Orleans and Barrhaven).

You can check traffic on Google maps and it will show green from places that MOOSE wants to serve. I have been to those exurbs myself and don't see any justification to prioritize their need over the needs of Ottawa residents. For the time being they are best served by buses as there are currently being served.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by OtrainUser

Traffic from the exurban communities is not a problem, the problem with downtown congestion is from the suburbs (Kanata, Orleans and Barrhaven).

You can check traffic on Google maps and it will show green from places that MOOSE wants to serve. I have been to those exurbs myself and don't see any justification to prioritize their need over the needs of Ottawa residents. For the time being they are best served by buses as there are currently being served.

But commuters from those exurbs do contribute to traffic, and as they grow it'll only get worse.

Look at what's being done with the Trillium Line in Stage 2. For the time being it's being extended with stations in the middle of fields, but it means that in the future any development will be built around those stations and take higher order transit in mind right from the get-go instead of trying to shoe-horn it in later (which gets pricey).

Speaking of the Trillium Line, does anyone else think that maybe the Trillium Line will eventually be sent further south into Manotick instead of trying to cross the river into Barrhaven?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

But commuters from those exurbs do contribute to traffic, and as they grow it'll only get worse.

Look at what's being done with the Trillium Line in Stage 2. For the time being it's being extended with stations in the middle of fields, but it means that in the future any development will be built around those stations and take higher order transit in mind right from the get-go instead of trying to shoe-horn it in later (which gets pricey).

Yeah, but it is negligible. If you look at Ottawa commuting stats (link below) most of these places have a few hundred or at most a few thousand commuters headed to Ottawa. The only exurb with more than 10k commuters is Russel Township, where no rail service is being proposed.

And remember, the business model (such as it is) being proposed requires than 10s of thousands of people relocate to distant exurbs (presumably from existing urban and suburban communities) for the purpose of generating ridership. That’s like starting fires to give the fire department something to do.

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011...oral=2013&THEME=96&VID=0&VNAMEE=&VNAMEF=

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

We are kidding ourselves to think that this routing would be for downtown commuters. Maybe my suggested Phase 2 would work for those coming in from South Orleans, but not from the south or west end. It would be for cross-town transit riders. The trains would have to be fast if we hope to lure some drivers away from their cars.

A service for cross town trips isn’t a bad idea. Existing services don’t attract much suburb to suburb commutes.

[Charles5]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The only exurb with more than 10k commuters is Russel Township, where no rail service is being proposed.
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011...oral=2013&THEME=96&VID=0&VNAMEE=&VNAMEF=

Russel Township only has 4890 commuters going into Ottawa. The first column is the sum of the second two which break down the number of commuters by gender. I suspect you added all three columns.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

A service for cross town trips isn’t a bad idea. Existing services don’t attract much suburb to suburb commutes.

The Baseline BRT will help with that. Crosstown demand isn't high enough to make rail necessary.

[gunnar777]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I know the train fans want any train built for any reason regardless of whether it makes any sense. Most of the existing sprawl is less than 25k from downtown. Your boy wants to double or even triple that. It is an order of magnitude of sprawl unheard of for a city of this size.

How is double or triple equivalent to an order of magnitude? An order of magnitude would be 10^x times the magnitude of sprawl.

Anyway, I doubt a commuter train that runs a few times in each direction, daily, would do much to make sprawl worse. We're talking about a region that knows nothing but cars and already uses them to commute only about 100% of the time. Even nearby Chelsea has a pathetic 2 buses/day, both in the morning. That town is an environmental disaster because families are clocking 80k km/year getting to Ottawa between the two cars in their driveways. And clearly, having next to no transit hasn't made them very self-sufficient either, as local employment is pretty non-existent. So how do trains not make sense in this context? People like them because they're smoother than buses, more reliable, and yeah, maybe a little classier too. And if they're going to be heading into the city one way or another...

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by roger1818

The Baseline BRT will help with that. Crosstown demand isn't high enough to make rail necessary.

We said that about the Trillium Line in 2001.

The value of rail is that it completely bypasses traffic and traffic lights. It would also have far fewer stops than any bus route. There is potential for much faster service.

Obviously, a feasibility study would be needed, but of all the commuter routes presented, this one has the most potential since it sticks inside the urban transit area. Everything beyond that is highly questionable.

[lrt's friend]

The greatest cause of exurban sprawl in the Ottawa area was the construction of Highway 417, 416 and the twinning of Highway 7. These projects have enabled expansion of towns such as Casselman, Embrun, Kemptville, Carleton Place and Arnprior beyond the city boundary. On the Quebec side, the same can be said about Highway 5 and 50.

I can tell you that exurban sprawl has been a major contributor to congestion on Bank Street South and this will only get worse. This is why the Trillium Line extension has become such a priority even ahead of proper double tracking.

The only way to reign in exurban related congestion is to extend rail. Bus service is not good enough because it is held up in the same congestion. Only rail can bypass it.

So as exurban road congestion gets worse in other directions, then rail is the ultimate answer. In the meantime, before congestion becomes a major issue, bus service needs to be encouraged. A market needs to be developed.

The most important thing is that the highways have created the exurban sprawl problem. Rail ultimately provides the transportation solution once sprawl has already been created. Rail will never be the main cause of sprawl.

Now, don't start putting words in my mouth. I don't believe there is sufficient population base to support rail to the exurbs at this time or in the forseeable future. But, at some point planning needs to occur before all possible routes are blocked or otherwise removed.

There is another reason for re-using the cross-town tracks even within the urban area. To preserve and improve those tracks (if there a risk of them being lifted?) and prepares us for the day when extending rail beyond the main urban area becomes desirable. With the central section built, the outer parts are not as cost prohibitive. In the meantime, we have already built up ridership within the urban area.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by gunnar777

How is double or triple equivalent to an order of magnitude? An order of magnitude would be 10^x times the magnitude of sprawl.

Anyway, I doubt a commuter train that runs a few times in each direction, daily, would do much to make sprawl worse. We're talking about a region that knows nothing but cars and already uses them to commute only about 100% of the time. Even nearby Chelsea has a pathetic 2 buses/day, both in the morning. That town is an environmental disaster because families are clocking 80k km/year getting to Ottawa between the two cars in their driveways. And clearly, having next to no transit hasn't made them very self-sufficient either, as local employment is pretty non-existent. So how do trains not make sense in this context? People like them because they're smoother than buses, more reliable, and yeah, maybe a little classier too. And if they're going to be heading into the city one way or another...

Areas are squared. Moose wants to turn sprawl in Ottawa from a radius of about 25 km to a radius of about 25km (2000 sq km) to a radius of about 80 sq km, which is 20,000 sq km. That is completely unheard of for metro pop of 1.4M people.

The whole point of the project is that people will move to exurban exurban subdivisions and use property value increases to pay for the service. Sprawl isn’t a side effect of this plan, it is the entire objective of this plan.

Chelsea recently ripped up its train tracks, so people there don’t share your view of whether a train would help their problems.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

The Baseline BRT will help with that. Crosstown demand isn't high enough to make rail necessary.

It is a school bus for Algonquin students, it is too slow and to short to provide effective crosstown service.