CHICAGO | General Discussions

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by glowrock

Prices might be lower, but square footage tends to be much lower as well. What passes for a bedroom in many Pilsen apartments might as well be a closet in many north side units.

Aaron (Glowrock)

LOL, I almost wonder if some of you forumers have, when touring prospective apartments, unknowingly visited one of my buildings

But yes, bedrooms in Pilsen are tiny, there is no doubt about that.

[glowrock]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

LOL, I almost wonder if some of you forumers have, when touring prospective apartments, unknowingly visited one of my buildings

But yes, bedrooms in Pilsen are tiny, there is no doubt about that.

Perhaps, yes.

Regardless, I've got probably twice the space at the same or lower cost here around Belmont/Pulaski than I'd have in Pilsen. Rentals here are very reasonable, indeed.

Aaron (Glowrock)

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by west-town-brad

sorry, no. the leveraged return on a personal residence is not nominal

I'm not sure you understand the word nominal, nominal in economics refers to any gain or statistic that is NOT adjusted for inflation. All returns are "nominal" until you go through the trouble of backing out inflation. For example:

Arthur buys a house in 2010 for $100,000 in 2020 he sells it for $150,000. His gain is $50,000, his nominal gain is $50,000 because that's how many dollars he literally made. However, those dollars are not worth the same in 2020 as they were in 2010. So his "REAL" gain is not $50k or 50%, his real gain needs to be calculated by adjusting for inflation. If inflation was 50% between 2010 and 2020 (it was nowhere near that of course) then his real gain is actually zero because a can of Coke was $1 in 2010 and is now $1.50.

And of course, leverage massively amplifies gains (tell me about it, I turned $5k into several million of RE equity since 2010 by making smart leveraged plays off of properties I got for rediculously low basis), but statistically the gains are so low in the SFH sector that it doesn't really matter. Odds are you will never achieve the 6-8% returns of the S+P even with high leverage. There are times during which you could have greatly exceeded these gains and been the exception to the rule (5-10 years ago being one of them), but most of the time SFHs return the rate of inflation or less meaning they break even or lose money on a real basis.

For example, if you bought the average American house in 1977, it would have gained literally nothing if you sold 20 years later in the late 1990s. Yes, the nominal value would be higher, but the nominal value of a can of Coke or a big mac was equally higher. In fact, from the end of WWII until the mid 1970s, the real value of housing in the US drifted lower. If you bought a house in 1950 and sold in 1970, you would have lost a significant amount of money after adjusting for inflation, tell me how leverage can make negative returns positive again?



The blue line looks great, too bad the orange line is the only one that matters.

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Priced out of Pilsen?

Wow, my rents there are still pretty damn low compared to north side hoods, and I’m sure that buying a home there can’t be too difficult. I’m trying to make sense of this....

We own a condo in Pilsen which was relatively affordable. We're looking for an SFH or 2-flat in the 300k-400k range which is impossible to find if you don't want a serious fixer-upper. Compare that to Oak Park where you can get a renovated home on a larger lot in this price range, that actually has strong public schools.

I'd much rather stay in the city with more amenities, much stronger public transit, more diversity etc.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by ardecila

We own a condo in Pilsen which was relatively affordable. We're looking for an SFH or 2-flat in the 300k-400k range which is impossible to find if you don't want a serious fixer-upper. Compare that to Oak Park where you can get a renovated home on a larger lot in this price range, that actually has strong public schools.

I'd much rather stay in the city with more amenities, much stronger public transit, more diversity etc.

Those Oak Park property taxes though!

[ardecila]

^ Somebody's gotta pay for the schools. If we lived in any of the above urban neighborhoods we'd likely have to send our kids to private school so it's probably a wash. The more kids you have, the better a bargain suburban living is. Granted, it sucks to keep paying those taxes after your kids are out of the system but that's why you move out after they leave the nest

I should add we are fine with the Steely Dan solution of a duplex-down condo in the city if it comes with some yard space, it doesn't have to be an SFH which does open up more options.

[SIGSEGV]

Leaving this here in case anyone is interested:

registration link: https://amacad.force.com/events/s/lt...T0000000bqoUAA

If you haven't heard of him, this guy has the most impressive CV I've ever seen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_E._Massey

[Handro]

^Registered. Thanks for the heads up!

[ardecila]

I think it is pointing south; the photo is looking at the back side of the dish, but because it's transparent mesh you can see through it.

[SIGSEGV]

ah you might be right! what an optical illusion...

[Rizzo]

Maybe someone here can add some landscaping recommendation. A few of us in my condo building want to landscape the avenue parkway. The tall ash trees with shallow roots make grass impossible. It only grows in the areas in sunshine. What is the low ground cover plant I see in the shade seemingly everywhere in Chicago? I'm looking for a shrub that will ultimately spread over the whole area and I might add some edging or paver blocks. CDOT came through and re-did a bunch of walks and our driveway for free, so I feel comfortable moving forward with a large landscaping project since the ROW won't be disturbed for some time.

[Handro]

Originally Posted by Rizzo

Maybe someone here can add some landscaping recommendation. A few of us in my condo building want to landscape the avenue parkway. The tall ash trees with shallow roots make grass impossible. It only grows in the areas in sunshine. What is the low ground cover plant I see in the shade seemingly everywhere in Chicago? I'm looking for a shrub that will ultimately spread over the whole area and I might add some edging or paver blocks. CDOT came through and re-did a bunch of walks and our driveway for free, so I feel comfortable moving forward with a large landscaping project since the ROW won't be disturbed for some time.

My parents have had English Ivy as ground cover for years in their shady backyard. Keep in mind it does require regular trimming with a weed wacker to maintain an even-ish height and to avoid creeping up any nearby vertical surfaces so however your HOA handles landscaping that will need to be included.

[Bonsai Tree]

Originally Posted by Rizzo

Maybe someone here can add some landscaping recommendation. A few of us in my condo building want to landscape the avenue parkway. The tall ash trees with shallow roots make grass impossible. It only grows in the areas in sunshine. What is the low ground cover plant I see in the shade seemingly everywhere in Chicago? I'm looking for a shrub that will ultimately spread over the whole area and I might add some edging or paver blocks. CDOT came through and re-did a bunch of walks and our driveway for free, so I feel comfortable moving forward with a large landscaping project since the ROW won't be disturbed for some time.

I know this sounds a bit cliche sometimes, but do try and find something that's native. It'll do so much better than something non-native. I'd recommend Wild Ginger. Definitely do some research on native ground covers. English Ivy is highly invasive.

[Handro]

Originally Posted by Bonsai Tree

I know this sounds a bit cliche sometimes, but do try and find something that's native. It'll do so much better than something non-native. I'd recommend Wild Ginger. Definitely do some research on native ground covers. English Ivy is highly invasive.

Wow, I had no idea--and after looking at pictures I would say wild ginger is a more attractive ground cover, anyway.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Plant hostas, they will eventually kill off everything including any wayward dogs or children that venture into their pen.

Also put some wild violets in there, they are also extremely aggressive and will choke off other plants.

[Bonsai Tree]

^^^ If it's not too shady, wild violets are definitely a great suggestion.

[jboy560]

This is addressed in the census 2020 thread, but Illinois did much better than expected on the 2020 census. The loss since 2010 was only 18k vs. ~200k expected loss. I’m betting the city shows sizable increases once city-level data is published.

[Bonsai Tree]

Originally Posted by jboy560

This is addressed in the census 2020 thread, but Illinois did much better than expected on the 2020 census. The loss since 2010 was only 18k vs. ~200k expected loss. I’m betting the city shows sizable increases once city-level data is published.

As I said in the census thread, I'd say most of the population losses actually occurred outside of the metro area. There will probably be losses in the south and west sides, but with how undercounted the census estimates were I doubt that'll be too much of an issue for the city. Probably still a modest increase though. I'd find it hard to believe if Rockford, Peoria, Danville, and the far south of the state don't lose some population.

[Steely Dan]

The prospect that chicagoland might've actually gained 100 - 200K thanks to the census bureau's woefully incorrect estimates for the state as a whole is quite interesting.

Can't wait for those county numbers to be released.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Can't wait for those county numbers to be released.

Does anyone know when the more detailed data gets released? I'm having trouble finding it on census.gov.