Statistics Canada Reports II

[ericmacm]

The "labour shortage" is ultimately a symptom of the past 20 years of companies across the country refusing to develop their own entry-level talent pipelines. Many would much rather attempt to poach mid-level talent from other companies to avoid investing in training people up from scratch internally. The problem is that when everyone tries to do this, you end up with a dearth of experience for a certain age cohort, which is what we are seeing now, where there are not enough mid-level experienced employees to fill positions being vacated by retiring senior employees.

Immigration is never going to solve this problem since international experience is not always going to be an apples-to-apples comparison or directly compatible with Canadian experience, especially when you are talking skilled professions. There is only one way to solve this problem and it is to rebuild the entry-level cohort. This will never happen though, because senior staff always complain about entry-level staff "not knowing anything" and many Canadian companies do not want to take on the risks associated with training up new staff. In my experience (engineering background), companies have become much more risk-adverse in their hiring practices since COVID-19, and there is a growing sense of discrimination against young people entering the workforce who were educated during the pandemic (i.e., a sense that they aren't adequately educated and won't be able to work properly). People do not talk kindly about the entry-level in the workplace. People and companies do not want to take the time to mentor and train entry-level staff. Some of the drivel I have heard come out of people's mouths talking about junior technicians or engineers-in-training is absolutely insane. Like, don't forget where you came from. This is a cultural problem that needs to change.

I was lucky enough to get hired by a company that was willing to take on that risk of hiring someone green and fresh out of university (albeit with 1 year of co-op internship experience) but many are not so lucky. There were a lot of engineering graduates that could not find anything and moved on.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by theman23

We’ve brought in 3 million undifferentiated workers over the last few years. We’ve never before brought in this many workers, and it seems like they don’t want to work in construction either.

The reality is that immigration can bring bodies in, but probably isn’t a magic bullet to address skilled labour shortages. If there is a dearth of construction workers worldwide, you might as well be squeezing water from a stone.

I'm not sure there is any evidence that they don't want to work construction. These trades are dominated by unions and an apprentice system. Being an outsider it's a tough racket to crack into. Do we even have a shortage there anymore as the construction sector grinds to a halt?

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I'm not sure there is any evidence that they don't want to work construction. These trades are dominated by unions and an apprentice system. Being an outsider it's a tough racket to crack into. Do we even have a shortage there anymore as the construction sector grinds to a halt?

Housing construction isn't grinding to a halt yet. According to Statistics Canada data, the number of housing units under construction in Q4 2022 was the highest it's been in 32 years of data (with 368,000 units under construction). It's even higher now, as there are still 350,000+ units under construction in CMAs (more than any other quarter). (Data for the whole of Canada isn't released immediately, but CMA data covers the majority of construction activity).

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Housing construction isn't grinding to a halt yet. According to Statistics Canada data, the number of housing units under construction in Q4 2022 was the highest it's been in 32 years of data (with 368,000 units under construction). It's even higher now, as there are still 350,000+ units under construction in CMAs (more than any other quarter). (Data for the whole of Canada isn't released immediately, but CMA data covers the majority of construction activity).

Not sure how lagging this data is and yes lots of work still ongoing but housing starts have fallen off a cliff. That depletes the pipelin and if the trend continues soon we will see a shortage of work.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Not sure how lagging this data is and yes lots of work still ongoing but housing starts have fallen off a cliff. That depletes the pipelin and if the trend continues soon we will see a shortage of work.

There's almost no lag to the data - it's released within three weeks of the end of each month. Housing starts haven't fallen off a cliff. The data shows continued high levels of activity. (click on 'historical time periods' bottom left, and 'Starts Actual'). You'll see Q1 2024 saw more housing starts than Q1 2023 or Q1 2022

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Housing construction isn't grinding to a halt yet. According to Statistics Canada data, the number of housing units under construction in Q4 2022 was the highest it's been in 32 years of data (with 368,000 units under construction). It's even higher now, as there are still 350,000+ units under construction in CMAs (more than any other quarter). (Data for the whole of Canada isn't released immediately, but CMA data covers the majority of construction activity).

Then that certainly illustrates that we can’t build fast enough to get out the mess created by the Liberals.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by ericmacm

I was lucky enough to get hired by a company that was willing to take on that risk of hiring someone green and fresh out of university (albeit with 1 year of co-op internship experience) but many are not so lucky. There were a lot of engineering graduates that could not find anything and moved on.

I'd fall into that camp too - both firms I've worked for since college, both construction subtrades, are always hiring coops and new grads. With lots of those new grads being returning coops. I did a QC coop, then drafting, then was offered to come back full time after grad. Did that for two years then transitioned to estimating.

My current estimating team has 2 coops, our manager is a former coop/new grad hire, and three former estimating coops that I worked with are now a project coordinator, sales rep, and procurement coordinator.

I can't say too well how Covid affected quality, since 1 or 2 people a year is not a big sample size. The current uni student is very bright and curious, as was the last one who moved on to a big GC to round out her experience (very smart on her part, wouldn't be surprised to see her back one day, but she'll be successful wherever she ends up). The one before that we fired for watching cricket all day. The one before that showed up and did the work, he was just pretty bad at English and constantly needed things reexplained. Which as a coop, you just deal with till their term is over, and don't go seeking them out for full time.

Part of this pipeline is having relationships with the schools - being at job fairs, sponsoring events, hosting student tours. Most of my college teachers were former construction guys, half of whom were still doing small side businesses, so there was a good feedback system of what was actually needed in the industry to succeed.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Then that certainly illustrates that we can’t build fast enough to get out the mess created by the Liberals.

Anyone who has done the math has known for a while that we cannot.

It's going to be a rough ride for 5 or maybe even 10 years no matter what.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Anyone who has done the math has known for a while that we cannot.

It's going to be a rough ride for 5 or maybe even 10 years no matter what.

Which confirms what everyone is saying: either the Federal Liberals are truly mentally retarded, or else their pet Epic Housing Crisis of Great Landed Gentry Enrichment is a deliberate feature not bug.

[ericmacm]

Originally Posted by jonny24

I'd fall into that camp too - both firms I've worked for since college, both construction subtrades, are always hiring coops and new grads. With lots of those new grads being returning coops. I did a QC coop, then drafting, then was offered to come back full time after grad. Did that for two years then transitioned to estimating.

My current estimating team has 2 coops, our manager is a former coop/new grad hire, and three former estimating coops that I worked with are now a project coordinator, sales rep, and procurement coordinator.

I can't say too well how Covid affected quality, since 1 or 2 people a year is not a big sample size. The current uni student is very bright and curious, as was the last one who moved on to a big GC to round out her experience (very smart on her part, wouldn't be surprised to see her back one day, but she'll be successful wherever she ends up). The one before that we fired for watching cricket all day. The one before that showed up and did the work, he was just pretty bad at English and constantly needed things reexplained. Which as a coop, you just deal with till their term is over, and don't go seeking them out for full time.

Part of this pipeline is having relationships with the schools - being at job fairs, sponsoring events, hosting student tours. Most of my college teachers were former construction guys, half of whom were still doing small side businesses, so there was a good feedback system of what was actually needed in the industry to succeed.

Agreed on the co-op front. It is a crucial part of that talent pipeline. I did not go back to any of my co-ops because they were not hiring when I graduated during the pandemic, but in a different environment there likely would have been opportunities to stay on with them. Those co-ops gave me a massive leg up on my career trajectory.

My company does have a co-op program but my office does not do it anymore. They stopped during the pandemic and never started it up again. After I get my P.Eng. (applying at the end of the year), I am planning on taking the initiative and making a push to build a new relationship with UWindsor (my alma mater) and rebuild their old relationship with Western so we can start taking on co-ops again. Co-ops helped me with my career and I want to help give that experience to others.

[Innsertnamehere]

My employer does a ton of its hiring through university internships. Getting a co-op here is not a guarantee of a job even if you perform well, but a good chunk of staff started through that route and just never left.

Personally I interned at another firm before moving between a few firms post-university to advance my career before landing here.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

My employer does a ton of its hiring through university internships. Getting a co-op here is not a guarantee of a job even if you perform well, but a good chunk of staff started through that route and just never left.

Personally I interned at another firm before moving between a few firms post-university to advance my career before landing here.

Ontario got rid of the Trade Apprenticeship Tax Credit, which I think was a big miss. The federal credit is also a very weak incentive.

[FrAnKs]

That's crazy. 9.1m for Québec and 16.17m for Ontario.
Is it just me or both reached 9 and 16 millions only...months ago??

[dennis]

BC and Quebec (and recently Alberta)hit their milestones. Up next Manitoba.

[FrAnKs]

Originally Posted by dennis

BC and Quebec (and recently Alberta)hit their milestones. Up next Manitoba.

10 millions is THE milestone.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by lio45

Which confirms what everyone is saying: either the Federal Liberals are truly mentally retarded, or else their pet Epic Housing Crisis of Great Landed Gentry Enrichment is a deliberate feature not bug.

Please no not insult Canadians with cognitive disabilities to the Liberals. It's very much a comparison they do not deserve.

[whatnext]

A scathing opinion piece in the Globe & Mail taking down the Liberals’ mishandling of immigration:

Once the envy of the world, Canada’s immigration system now lies dismantled
PHILIP OREOPOULOUS AND MIKAL SKUTERUD
SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
PUBLISHED YESTERDAY
UPDATED 3 HOURS AGO

At the crux of economic immigration policy is the question of whether immigrant selection should prioritize current labour market needs or the human capital of applicants. Does Canada need more farmhands and delivery riders, or do we want more scientists and tech workers?…

…Where there are genuine labour shortages, governments can help job seekers identify opportunities but should allow competition for scarce labour to incentivize businesses to increase wages to attract new workers and invest in training and technology to get more out of their existing workers. Where businesses can’t compete, they will fail, and scarce workers will be reallocated to more productive businesses. As we look to solve what the Bank of Canada has called a “productivity emergency” these are good outcomes.

In a new study, Prof. Pierre Fortin, a former president of the Canadian Economics Association, finds that Canadian immigration, which has prioritized addressing labour shortages, has, in fact, done more to increase labour demand than labour supply in recent years. And as labour markets tighten, corporate Canada calls for more immigration, and labour shortages are exacerbated.

The government’s ill-advised preoccupation with shortages in low-skill labour markets is resulting in the dismantling of Canada’s skilled immigration system, which for decades has been the envy of the world.

The dismantling began on Feb. 13, 2021, when the government bypassed its Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) – a “points system” used to grade the human capital of applicants – to provide permanent residency status to applicants with record low scores. Two months later, they again bypassed the CRS to provide a pathway to permanency for 90,000 “essential workers,” our modern-day euphemism for low-skill workers. In September, 2023, Category Based Selection was enshrined as a new selection policy allowing the minister to bypass the CRS to prioritize truck drivers, farm workers and French speakers outside Quebec. Whatever lobby group shouts the loudest will be prioritized next.….

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...stem-now-lays/

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by Xelebes

So We hit July 1, 2024. StatsCan roughly figure4s the population has grown 1.3 million. And using my best guesses from StatsCan's best guesses, we get the following for the CMAs:



CMAs by highest growth rates predicted, minimum 4%:

Kitchener Cambridge Waterloo - 6.37%
Calgary 5.61%
Squamish - 5.47%
Moncton - 4.45%
Peterborough - 4.39%
Brantford - 4.13%
Vancouver 4.09%
Sault Sainte Marie - 4.08%
Timmins - 4.08%
London - 4.03%
North Bay - 4.03%

In terms of the wider Toronto region, the Inner Greenbelt CMAs (Toronto, Hamilton, Oshawa) account for about 8.4 million people, while the Outer Greenbelt CMAs (Niagara, Brantford, Kitchener, Guelph, Barrie, Peterborough) account for about 1.9 million people. Together, they account for 10.3 million people or more than a quarter of Canada's population.

[rdaner]

Interesting. Looks like the GTHA has finally passed Chicagoland and is now working on LA. I want to next compare with UK cities as the closest they have is Greater London.

[LeftCoaster]

Wow, if Xlebes estimates are accurate the Lower Mainland is more or less 3.5 million in 3,300 sq km. Crazy growth.