Rapid Transit

[Dr Awesomesauce]

Again, I found it fascinating how councillors started to waiver during last week's council meeting. They seemed fairly united in their support for B-line LRT and then, lo and behold, the foundation started showing signs of weakness. I love a good conspiracy, don't you?

[thistleclub]

In the 2010 HSR Operational Review, 52 (Dundas Local) was revealed to have the second worst R/C ratio of any route in the HSR – cost recovery of around 5% and an average ridership of 1 passenger at any given time, possibly a result of the 30-minute headway and weekday-only, rush-hour-only service.

There's some muddiness on this issue since the University Plaza platform is the terminus for most Dundas ridership (anecdotally, at least, since the HSR is lousy at making these things plain). Even so, it's notable that the first iteration of the B-Line LRT ran from University Plaza to Eastgate Square, 2km longer than the current route. Somebody presumably did the math and decided it would not be cost-effective to extend LRT past McMaster based on established ridership demand.

As far as 2014 vulnerability, Powers has represented Dundas for over 30 years, and the ward is one of the most stable, city-wide, in terms of growth. As ridiculous as his stance may seem, he probably knows the mood of his constituents reasonably well. Although premature, I doubt that there's much political downside in his stand.

[HillStreetBlues]

Sheesh, Pete, it almost sounds like you're saying "Christian" as a prejorative. But anyway.

I understand what you're saying, and you are of course right. But no human being is truly an institution. Of course, it's hard to beat an incumbent of any length of term because of that complacency in ticking the same box every year- and I guess harder when people have ticked the same box for some decades.

But it's not impossible. Instead of saying that Mr. Powers is an instution in Dundas politics, why not characterize him as someone who has served for a long time, is now of retirement age, and has become out of touch with a community that has changed a lot since he started representing it thirty years ago? If LRT were truly important- and I personally think it is, and so do a lot of other Hamiltonians and Dundas residents- that would be the natural reaction to this move of his. Okay, that doesn't change the truth of your observation that it is always exceedingly difficult to remove an x-term (I don't know how many in his case) incumbent, but if we can frame LRT as an important election issue, it's not impossible.

I don't understand Morelli at all…most people I've talked to from Ward 3 don't know who their councillor is, but that only goes so far in explaining it..

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by thistleclub

In the 2010 HSR Operational Review,
As far as 2014 vulnerability, Powers has represented Dundas for over 30 years, and the ward is one of the most stable, city-wide, in terms of growth. As ridiculous as his stance may seem, he probably knows the mood of his constituents reasonably well. Although premature, I doubt that there's much political downside in his stand.

Ah well. I defer to those with more knowledge than me. Very interesting about the 52. That ridership is stunning, even if the route's service is not very convenient.

[thistleclub]

I wouldn't want to suggest that Powers is invulnerable, just that the LRT equation may be different for him than it was in K-W.

AFAIK, in K-W, the region was planning on funding a substantial portion themselves, and had been doing so for years, with the senior funding coming as an 11th hour surprise. To me, that says something about the mindset of K-W residents as well as their representatives. The Region was very much in the driver's seat, and transit advocates were able to convince their leaders of the merit of spending substantial sums and raising taxes in order to build future infrastructure.

Hamilton, meanwhile, has managed to be enthusiastic about getting a $1 billion system for free (including operating costs). The level of political commitment is somewhat different, as is the attitude toward investing in transit. Hamilton's council only seems interested in riding shotgun, and not just on the rapid transit file. The HSR has atrophied for a generation, with little to no discernable political consequence.

[Pearlstreet]

Hamilton is in the dark ages of accessibility... An example of many I noticed; stores like Canadian Tire downtown have only just now (after decades) installed an elevator. Before, hundreds of residents particularly close to there could never see the other half of the place inside. Appropriate rental housing with access has been identified as a clear need too. Grants are available for owners to transform their homes to accommodate, etcetera, etcetera....

A community with a substantial population requiring wheel-chair access and ease of accessibility, presumably more than any other in the G.T.A. demands this. With our healthcare sector growing it should highlight this more and more I hope. LRT would be a godsend to accessibility burdened after transit route and access advances come with LRT improvements. There seems to be little mention of this. LRT is not a luxury option, look at our population. Lets see if our councel want to keep riding their short on amenity busses.

[HillStreetBlues]

Thistleclub: you are by and large correct about how things went in K-W, but not that locals ever planed to pay for the majority of the system. Although no one at any point expected to get a system without some cost to the Region, it was expected for a very long time that the province would pay the majority (two thirds was what was anticipated until very close to the end). The federal money was an unknown, but the provincial money was viewed as a sure thing by money. In the end, though, I guess it was the same as I think the Region will be paying a little less than a third (a bargain for the local taxpayers, everything considered).

Still, I get how different these scenarios are: those in K-W saw a need for transit, and wondered how much senior levels of government might contribute to that. Hamiltonians wonder why they would have to pay anything at all.

[flar]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

I think that it is very possible that Powers comes to question this decision. Even if no one notices how ridiculous it is to say that something can't be afforded before we even know the price tag (and while most are still saying that we want it for free), no matter how things pan out, it might not be a popular thing to have been the first councillor to formally give up on LRT.

Dundas is a well-educated community with (this is only my opinion) a lot of urban-focused residents interested in sensible city building. A number of them would actually use LRT, so it's not as though this guy is representing Binbrookers who may well never even see it (even though they will benefit in indirect ways). How many students and professors live in Dundas who would like to live in a city with better transit?

I can say from experience that, in Kitchener-Waterloo, the 2010 municipal election was for many people about LRT (whether they were in favour of it or opposed to it). Other issues were on people's minds, of course, and it would be an overstatement to say that the election was a referendum on LRT, but it was one of the first questions posed to council candidates. This was when it was already known that the Region would be paying up to $300 million for the system, when commitments were in place from the provincial and federal governments.

How might Powers be vulnerable in 2014 if the Hamilton Light Rail Initiative or a group like it can successfully make LRT a big election issue? Would it really be a good situation to be running for re-election in a well-educated, partly urban riding after you were the first councillor to say that you are not interested, even if it came at no cost?

Unfortunately (and stupidly), the LRT is not going all the way to Dundas. While there are quite a few progressives in Dundas, the bulk of the people are either a) long time Dundas residents with "Dundas Forever" signs in their windows who don't want anything to do with Hamilton, or b) suburbanites who are no different than surbanites in Ancaster or Stoney Creek or the Mountain (ie, they never, ever, take transit and don't want taxes to go up)

[mattgrande]

Originally Posted by thistleclub

I wouldn't want to suggest that Powers is invulnerable, just that the LRT equation may be different for him than it was in K-W.

AFAIK, in K-W, the region was planning on funding a substantial portion themselves, and had been doing so for years, with the senior funding coming as an 11th hour surprise. To me, that says something about the mindset of K-W residents as well as their representatives. The Region was very much in the driver's seat, and transit advocates were able to convince their leaders of the merit of spending substantial sums and raising taxes in order to build future infrastructure.

Hamilton, meanwhile, has managed to be enthusiastic about getting a $1 billion system for free (including operating costs). The level of political commitment is somewhat different, as is the attitude toward investing in transit. Hamilton's council only seems interested in riding shotgun, and not just on the rapid transit file. The HSR has atrophied for a generation, with little to no discernable political consequence.

I think part of the reason for this is we don't have a transit subcommittee. There's no councillor we can point the finger at and say "It's your fault transit isn't improving," and no one's job is on the line every four years if they shit the bed on the transit file.

[thistleclub]

Thanks for the additional detail, HSB.

The customary "thirds" formula embraced by K-W shouldn't come as a surprise, but as others have suggested, sticker shock on that scale could challenge the LRT consensus around our council horseshoe.

A unspoken wrinkle here is that in addition to his role as Ward 13 councillor, Powers is president of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario, 2012-2014. (He missed the April 24 council conflagration because he was at NOMA's Annual Meeting.)

[CaptainKirk]

Originally Posted by flar

Unfortunately (and stupidly), the LRT is not going all the way to Dundas. While there are quite a few progressives in Dundas, the bulk of the people are either a) long time Dundas residents with "Dundas Forever" signs in their windows who don't want anything to do with Hamilton, or b) suburbanites who are no different than surbanites in Ancaster or Stoney Creek or the Mountain (ie, they never, ever, take transit and don't want taxes to go up)

But long term concepts include other lines, as well as extensions for both ends of B-line into Dundas and Stoney Creek.

[thistleclub]

A caveat like "(not officially part of RTP)" raises questions about how Dundas/Stoney Creek extensions could be considered part of the 15-year priority plan.

Waterdown rapid transit is distant horizon, IMHO. The 2010 operational review found that the Waterdown buses averaged <0.1 passengers and the route recovered just 1.6% of costs.

[HillStreetBlues]

I can't personally see how anything beyond the B could be this side of three decades or longer, but I could be wrong.

Agreed that it is senseless for the LRT to be planned to stop two kilometres shy of Dundas, but I don't think a ward needs to have LRT stops in it to enjoy the benefits (I know that I'm preaching to the choir on this one). To say that "the LRT will not be in Dundas/Ancaster/Waterdown/Binbrook/Winona/Wherever, so I can't support it" is senseless for a tax-payer in those wards, and those wards' councillors. LRT will mean better transit for those taking it, for those who might take feeders from other areas to use it, for those taking buses in a more efficient system, and for those commuting by car in a region whose automobile traffic will be reduced. Not to mention the economic benefits that will help the entire city's tax base over the long run.

Anyway, even if it were all about the most direct benefits of LRT, even Ancaster will get it in 25 years (don't worry, I'm not actually this naive) according to the plan. So why not support it now, in the hopes that will happen? Obviously there's a logical order to how a system will be built up, and there's no way that we can create it all simultaneously. Why should some areas hold the whole city back if they are impatient or don't feel that they would experience all of the benefits right now?

[thistleclub]

Waterdown's just in there so that we can avoid the awkward STAB acronym.

I'm not sure what Powers' rationale is. I imagine we'll hear more from him as this plays out. Possibly others as well, though I would hope they keep schtum until the province weighs in on the "revenue tools" this summer.

[Beedok]

If the Centennial Go Station goes through I hope that the "s" line will extend to it.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

Dundas is a tricky one. The easiest way into town is via Cootes but then you bypass Main W and University Plaza (unless you do a loop via Main/ York, Osler, etc.). But then that valley east of the plaza could present issues for LRT vehicles - I'm not sure how much, if any, work would be required there because the grade is pretty steep.

Anyway, running LRT right into Dundas via either route would be a massive additional expense and I'm not sure its citizens or representatives have ever expressed a real interest in such things.

Wouldn't that be amazing? If a councillor said 'Hey, I want this LRT thing in my ward. Let's work together to try to make that happen.' Instead, they all treat LRT like it's H5N1.

[thistleclub]

Uncertainty is eroding Hamilton’s LRT vision
(Hamilton Spectator, Howard Elliott, May 14 2013)

Is Hamilton's vision for light rail transit dying on the vine, before it has even been fully explored? When you consider the shifting political ground at city council and Queen's Park, you might think so.

Columnist Andrew Dreschel reported this week that Dundas Councillor Russ Powers has shifted his support away from LRT based on Hamilton's ability to pay the $811-million tab. Councillors Tom Jackson and Chad Collins are also expressing growing concern.

The concern is largely justifiable, although we don't endorse pulling back from LRT at this point. But we can understand the growing anxiety among councillors about who pays for what, both in terms of LRT and the Big Move overall — the Metrolinx transportation blueprint to finally deal with choking congestion in the GTA and Hamilton.

Metrolinx, the provincial transportation authority, could go a long way to easing that anxiety by bringing clarity to that question. Will the province pay for some, all or none of the LRT bill? Premier Kathleen Wynne has been clear that there isn't enough money for the province to fund the Big Move, but what about Hamilton LRT? Senior governments picked up the vast majority of the cost of the Big Move Phase 1 projects, such as the Union Pearson Express, GO Transit expansion, the Union Station Revitalization and Georgetown South Project. Total investment for Phase 1 was $16 billion. If the province and feds can pay that bill, why not another $800 million for Hamilton LRT? Or if the determination is it doesn't stack up as a funding priority, why not say so soon so Hamilton council can make a decision with a greater degree of certainty?

LRT funding is not the only uncertainty at play here. Metrolinx has identified a range of funding options to raise new money to pay for the remainder of the Big Move — $34 billion worth. They include property taxes, highway tolls, extra development fees, parking fees and even pay-by-use fees. Hamilton and other municipalities have had their say on which tools they like and don't like, but the province is hinting it will impose the ones it likes regardless. That raises the spectre of Hamilton residents paying for Big Move projects whether LRT is in or out. For projects that attack inter-regional transportation issues, that's probably inevitable and not unreasonable since we all live in this area and will benefit from reductions in regional gridlock. But many other projects will directly benefit their host municipalities — Toronto and Mississauga come to mind. There is no appetite in Hamilton to pay for projects in other municipalities while Hamilton's transit objectives remain unfunded and unmet.

Will the province force Hamilton to pay for Toronto's transit issues? Will the NDP support such measures? Will the Liberals fight an election amid all this uncertainty and ambiguity?

[thistleclub]

Ontario Chamber of Commerce PR:

New Report from OCC Reveals GTHA Business Opinion on Revenue Tools

TORONTO, May 14, 2013: The Ontario Chamber of Commerce (OCC), in partnership with other GTHA chambers of commerce and boards of trade, released the results of a GTHA-wide consultation of businesses on how to fund The Big Move, the province’s transportation plan to relieve congestion in the region.

The results are consolidated in a new report, The $2 Billion Question: GTHA Business Opinion on Funding The Big Move. The report is intended to inform Metrolinx’s recommendations to the provincial government, due at the end of May.

The report reveals a clear consensus among GTHA businesses that new revenue tools are required to fund The Big Move. According to a recent OCC survey, 66 percent of GTHA businesses support the need for new revenue tools.

“Businesses understand that the status quo is no longer an option and that the case for better transportation is overwhelming,” said Allan O’Dette, President & CEO of the OCC. “The question is no longer ‘if’, but ‘how’ to fund new infrastructure in the GTHA.”

The report identifies three ‘non-starters’ from the business perspective: an employer payroll tax, a property tax, and a vehicle kilometres travelled fee.

“Businesses made it loud and clear that an employer payroll tax would hurt job creation at a particularly sensitive time in our economic recovery,” said O’Dette. “It could also incent businesses to set up shop outside of the region.”

Opinion was split on a number of ‘medium potential’ tools, including a commercial parking levy, a sales tax, high occupancy toll lanes, development charges, land value capture, and a transit fare increase.

High potential tools were those where a large majority of businesses voiced support. They include highway tolls and a fuel tax.

The report proposes several design parameters for each of the medium and high potential tools as a means of drumming up support.

The report sets out several conditions if new revenue tools are to be implemented. For example, revenues will need to be dedicated to transportation improvements and not absorbed into general revenue. Further, the tools must not hurt the region’s overall economic competitiveness.

Face-to-face consultations were held with more than 250 businesses in 10 sessions across the GTHA. In addition, the OCC surveyed its membership in the GTHA and throughout the province regarding their preferences.

[thistleclub]

Mississauga busy with transit plans
(Toronto Star, Letters, May 14 2013)

Re: City council off the rails, Editorial May 12

Politics and golf are two endeavours where you can get ahead or fall behind while standing still. So I should welcome your editorial critical of the “incoherent debate” at Toronto council that “achieved nothing” and may have “denied its full voice in shaping our common transit future.”

While Toronto bickers, in Mississauga we have been busy working toward our LRT along the Hurontario-Hwy. 10 corridor by having acquired all the necessary lands, designing the route, working with GO transit on plans to redesign the Cooksville GO station, engaging stakeholders through several public meetings, and aligning the land use in the secondary plans and official plan to conform with provincially mandated residential intensification.

I have even introduced a motion at council to consider a “land value tax” for those sitting on developable land along the route. And we accept the fundamental fact that if you want something, you have to pay for it. At every step council has unanimously supported these initiatives, which is why I am supremely confident the Hurontario LRT is at the top of the Metrolinx Big Move list. I would even bet it will be closely followed by the logical Dundas link from Hurontario to the Kipling subway.

Going forward, what is most important to those who have entrusted us with public office and told us gridlock is their most pressing concern is breaking away from our parochial silos and our archaic mindset born of history. Mississauga evolved from the amalgam of small towns and at times we still see ourselves as just a bigger town when we should aspire to be a great small city.

Toronto is a great city and truly could be a world-class city. Both of us would greatly benefit from such evolutions. In the year we celebrate the 150th anniversary of the London Tube, the good news is that other cities at the vanguard have provided the technology, design, planning, implementation, and the methods to pay for higher order transit. All we need at this crucial time is the courage and conviction they had.

Nando Iannicca, City of Mississauga/Region of Peel Councillor, Ward 7

[Dr Awesomesauce]

With tongue placed only slightly in cheek, I'm thinking about moving to Mistersauga. If LRT goes ahead and if they implement some of their new urban planning initiatives for the city centre, it'll be a decent place to live. Not great but OK.