Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Build Enough Homes Where People Actually Need Them

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by theman23

Probably time we’re honest with young Canadians about the future we’ve set up for them. Maybe the Libs need to run a PR campaign extolling the benefits of living at home with mom and dad forever while saving in an expanded TFSA.

To be fair, I don't think the CPC wants to admit that they don't have a real plan either. There's some ideas that will help. But come 2029, it's not like we'll be well on your way to substantially improved affordability for young people.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by casper

They were expecting the private sector to solve the problem. Clearly it is not up to the task. When that became clear, they started to become active in co-op and other federally financed forms of housing.

I think we a good year or practice federal government involvement in housing become we go back to assuming the free market will solve the problem on its own.

Thankfully the provinces are starting to step in and fix the zoning issues created by the municipal governments they have oversight over.

The provinces haven’t solved anything other than forcing Canadians into tinier and tinier homes. Tiny homes that will cost as much as the SFH they replaced thanks to Justin’s airheaded adhesion to the Century Initiative.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

The provinces haven’t solved anything other than forcing Canadians into tinier and tinier homes. Tiny homes that will cost as much as the SFH they replaced thanks to Justin’s airheaded adhesion to the Century Initiative.

I wish people would stop blaming the Century Initiative. They have literally taken in multiples of what the CI called for. The CI also called for a strong housing and infrastructure strategy to accompany a slight increase in immigration.

These companies are starting to sound like the nonsense about the World Economic Forum and Agenda 21.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by casper

They were expecting the private sector to solve the problem. Clearly it is not up to the task. When that became clear, they started to become active in co-op and other federally financed forms of housing.

What a weird way to frame it. Aside from the simple fact that the construction & development industry isn't nimble enough to be able to double their output overnight (after all, it can take years to build housing), how would any of those private sector actors have even been able to anticipate that population growth rates were set to triple, when no one else knew either? This wasn't a policy that the Liberals ever publicly campaigned on or even announced in advance - the whole process was incredibly opaque, and only really known about after-the-fact.

And, if the success of the plan hinged on the private sector picking up the slack, and cities & provinces having to update their zoning & permitting processes to accommodate the new growth level, then it was up to the federal government to coordinate that ahead of time. Ultimately they didn't, and only responded after it had been implemented, because it was bad policy.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Hecate

Who the fuck blames the citizens for not building enough homes. It is the most bullshit excuse. It’s like victim blaming. Why did you make me hit you.

I Can see trudeau sitting there crying… “I didn’t bring in too many immigrants… those lazy Canadian citizens didnt build enough homes. It’s all their fault wahhhh” it’s all the citizens of Canadas fault not the incompetent government and its mentally disabled enabling followers.

That is an interesting perspective. The reality is the Conservatives are strong supporters of free market economics. The Liberals generally also are strong believers in free market economics but see a limited role for government at the edges.

Don't be surprised to see the Conservatives pull back on federal government programs next year that support the construction of co-op housing or social housing. They think they are going to solve the housing problems by selling off "surplus" federal land to delivers.

The NDP are the ones that have little hope for the private sector to solve our problems.

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

What a weird way to frame it. Aside from the simple fact that the construction & development industry isn't nimble enough to be able to double their output overnight (after all, it can take years to build housing), how would any of those private sector actors have even been able to anticipate that population growth rates were set to triple, when no one else knew either? This wasn't a policy that the Liberals ever publicly campaigned on or even announced in advance - the whole process was incredibly opaque, and only really known about after-the-fact.

Population surge was over the last two years. Our housing problems date back two decades at least. The private sector has not flooded the market with suitable housing.

If anything the private sector in places like Vancouver and Toronto has been building airbnd and investor suites. I suspect part of the problem is there is a high margin to be made on building a building with small condos vrs a building of 3 bedroom condos.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by casper

Our housing problems date back two decades at least. The private sector has not flooded the market with suitable housing.

You don’t seem to realize how incompetent your statement makes the Trudeau Liberals…

“We’ve had a minor housing crisis for a long time, what should we do? Hey, let’s create a major crisis instead! The private sector can’t keep up with Harper-era intake rates, so let’s quadruple them, an epic housing crisis is a feature not a bug!”

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by lio45

You don’t seem to realize how incompetent your statement makes the Trudeau Liberals…

“We’ve had a minor housing crisis for a long time, what should we do? Hey, let’s create a major crisis instead! The private sector can’t keep up with Harper-era intake rates, so let’s quadruple them, an epic housing crisis is a feature not a bug!”

Exactly

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by lio45

You don’t seem to realize how incompetent your statement makes the Trudeau Liberals…

Because his talking points are fed directly from the LPC hivemind of Katie Telford, Tyler Meredith, Gerald Butts and other ultra partisan hacks.

[casper]

Originally Posted by lio45

You don’t seem to realize how incompetent your statement makes the Trudeau Liberals…

“We’ve had a minor housing crisis for a long time, what should we do? Hey, let’s create a major crisis instead! The private sector can’t keep up with Harper-era intake rates, so let’s quadruple them, an epic housing crisis is a feature not a bug!”

I would disagree.

The intake of "students" over the last two years is a red-herring. A short-term spike. While it likely added to the problem, it clearly has not cause an increase in housing costing. Housing prices have been for the most part stable for the last two years.

The "students" are not the cause of the crisis. If they were, the fact those numbers have now been reduced would have "solve the problem". No additional action would be required. Clearly that is not the case.

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Because his talking points are fed directly from the LPC hivemind of Katie Telford, Tyler Meredith, Gerald Butts and other ultra partisan hacks.

Actually I am not a member of the Liberal party. Perhaps I lean more towards Liberals and generally vote Liberal, but I have in the past under the right conditions voted both Green and Conservative. Voting Conservative is long ago when I mistakenly trusted Mulroney, looking back clearly a mistake. As for the Greens, I live in a riding where we are likely to have an NDP or Green MP. Strategically I would pick Green over the NDP on most things. The Liberals just don't run particularly strong candidates on Vancouver Island. Sad but true.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by casper

I would disagree.

The intake of "students" over the last two years is a red-herring. A short-term spike. While it likely added to the problem, it clearly has not cause an increase in housing costing. Housing prices have been for the most part stable for the last two years.

The "students" are not the cause of the crisis. If they were, the fact those numbers have now been reduced would have "solve the problem". No additional action would be required. Clearly that is not the case.



Actually I am not a member of the Liberal party. Perhaps I lean more towards Liberals and generally vote Liberal, but I have in the past under the right conditions voted both Green and Conservative. Voting Conservative is long ago when I mistakenly trusted Mulroney, looking back clearly a mistake. As for the Greens, I live in a riding where we are likely to have an NDP or Green MP. Strategically I would pick Green over the NDP on most things. The Liberals just don't run particularly strong candidates on Vancouver Island. Sad but true.

Our population has grown by over 3 million people in the last 3 years, which is about 10 years of growth under a pre-JT government. These people have no intention to leave despite them being “non permanent” and we have no track record of mass deportation or the political will to go down that route, so this isn’t a problem that goes away with the flick of a switch.

It’s also not true that migration numbers have been reduced - annualized quarterly growth rates are still well over 1 million people a year.

This is a pet peeve of mine with this government and its sycophants. They conflate announcements and plans with accomplishments. You can’t say you’ve reduced the number of migrants because you said you would at a press conference. You have to actually do it.

Also, housing costs are still major driver of CP inflation. Didn’t it go up 8% YoY this past month?

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by theman23

This is a pet peeve of mine with this government and its sycophants. They conflate announcements and plans with accomplishments. You can’t say you’ve reduced the number of migrants because you said you would at a press conference. You have to actually do it.

This is the core problem with JT and the Liberals. If you’re wealthy enough, inflation has a minimal effect, you are not a first time housing buyer, you aren’t renting, and you can live in this bubble of delusion. For the rest of us, it’s beyond infuriating to be told over and over again to deny reality, to pretend that supply has nothing to do with demand, and that millions of newcomers are not a large part of the housing problem. Or to be told that inflation has slowed down, so that problem doesn’t exist anymore. Everything is already too expensive and that is obviously not changing. “It’s a 40 degrees outside, just gone grateful it’s not 60” is basically what that sounds like.

The Libs have seared a hatred in the minds of Canadians that will likely take a decade or more to recover from as a party.

[casper]

Originally Posted by theman23

Our population has grown by over 3 million people in the last 3 years, which is about 10 years of growth under a pre-JT government. These people have no intention to leave despite them being “non permanent” and we have no track record of mass deportation or the political will to go down that route, so this isn’t a problem that goes away with the flick of a switch.

It’s also not true that migration numbers have been reduced - annualized quarterly growth rates are still well over 1 million people a year.

People coming to Canada today have permits that were issued months ago. The government is saying a 33% drop in permits. They are also requiring applications have to have a letter of acceptance on provincial government letter-head with a cap given to each province.

Give it time and it will eventually show up in the numbers.

Originally Posted by theman23

This is a pet peeve of mine with this government and its sycophants. They conflate announcements and plans with accomplishments. You can’t say you’ve reduced the number of migrants because you said you would at a press conference. You have to actually do it.

You need to be more patient. There is already news articles about SFU (and others) reducing staff given foreign student environment is down for 2024/2025.

Expecting temporary students to have any impact on housing prices is not overly rational. They are typically not the ones that have money to go buy a house. Perhaps if their extremely affluent and have parents willing to do it for them. However I don't that is the case. If we are talking about the cost of rentals, then yes, however yes I would agree they are a concern.

Originally Posted by theman23

Also, housing costs are still major driver of CP inflation. Didn’t it go up 8% YoY this past month?

CPI is under 3% and coming down.

[theman23]

You’ve been posting here long enough to know how NPRs cause housing inflation. I’m certain you’ve been part of these conversations so there’s no need to rehash this.


I was talking about the housing component. CPI for shelter was 6.4% and the rent component was 8.9% in May 2024. Obviously market rate rentals and newly formed mortgage costs were even higher since the CPI smooths these over.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...40625a-eng.htm

[casper]

Originally Posted by theman23

You’ve been posting here long enough to know how NPRs cause housing inflation. I’m certain you’ve been part of these conversations so there’s no need to rehash this.


I was talking about the housing component. CPI for shelter was 6.4% and the rent component was 8.9% in May 2024. Obviously market rate rentals and newly formed mortgage costs were even higher since the CPI smooths these over.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...40625a-eng.htm

People getting new mortgagees or renewing at higher rates is a given. Unfortunate. Rates are starting to come down but that is not going to show up in the stats for a while.

As for rentals. in places like BC with rent control over time people for one reason or another will end up leaving their "under-priced" rentals for higher priced-rents or to buy.

Again we need more new housing entering the market. Built by either the private or public sector. Realistically, the conservatives will likely be in power next year and the federal contribution to public housing will be diminished. Still concern the private sector is not up to the task. But we will see.

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by casper

People coming to Canada today have permits that were issued months ago. The government is saying a 33% drop in permits. They are also requiring applications have to have a letter of acceptance on provincial government letter-head with a cap given to each province.

Give it time and it will eventually show up in the numbers.

Perhaps it would be more prudent to hold off on any such claims until the actual numbers come out and we can actually see what actions were taken. Right now we have the announcement and that's all we have.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by casper

Population surge was over the last two years. Our housing problems date back two decades at least. The private sector has not flooded the market with suitable housing.

If anything the private sector in places like Vancouver and Toronto has been building airbnd and investor suites. I suspect part of the problem is there is a high margin to be made on building a building with small condos vrs a building of 3 bedroom condos.

Imagine if the government made a new rule to fight climate change where they restrict meat sales to a certain amount and force grocery stores to sell a certain number of vegetables before they can sell any meat. What do you think would happen to the price of meat in this situation? And what do you think would happen to the quality of vegetables?

When the price of meat spirals upwards and the quality of vegetables goes down, is that thebprivate sector's fault? No of course not - it's the government that madethe rule's fault.

Now replace the word "meat" with "greenfield SFH" and replace "vegetable" with "infill condo" and you more or less have how housing policy works in the Golden Horseshoe.

Your solution is no different than saying "the private sector isn't supplying enough quality vegetables for everyone, so we need thr government to step in".

In reality there's nothing wrong with the private sector - it's just behaving the way it always does when the government places all kinds of restrictions on how it can operate - wonky and distorted.

The government - specifically the McGuinty government - is who caused this mess in Southern Ontario.

Artificially low rates just added fuel to the fire.

High immigration added more fuel.

But the fire was lit by idiotic land use policy.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by casper

People getting new mortgagees or renewing at higher rates is a given. Unfortunate. Rates are starting to come down but that is not going to show up in the stats for a while.

As for rentals. in places like BC with rent control over time people for one reason or another will end up leaving their "under-priced" rentals for higher priced-rents or to buy.

Again we need more new housing entering the market. Built by either the private or public sector. Realistically, the conservatives will likely be in power next year and the federal contribution to public housing will be diminished. Still concern the private sector is not up to the task. But we will see.

Not sure what you’re trying to say. Are you arguing the CPI measure of rent is high because people are leaving rent controlled apartments for market rate ones? That isn’t how the CPI measures rent inflation and makes absolutely no sense.

[casper]

Originally Posted by theman23

Not sure what you’re trying to say. Are you arguing the CPI measure of rent is high because people are leaving rent controlled apartments for market rate ones? That isn’t how the CPI measures rent inflation and makes absolutely no sense.

In BC the way rent control works is as long as you stay put, the landlord can not raise rent above some government stipulated maximum. From 2021 to 2023 maximum rent increase was 0%. This year it is 3.5%. If someone leaves everything resets, the landlord is free to charge market rent to a new tenant. Given multiple years of 0% increases there are a lot of people with fairly good deals and a strong financial desire not to move out.

For example, I have a close friend that owns a small 14 unit building in Vancouver that she built in the 1980s. Over half her tenants are original to when the building was built and their rent is half to a third of what the new tenants pay for fundamentally the same unit. If one of those tenants move out, she can charge market rates, but until that happens she is capped at 3.5%.

My point is there are a variety of reasons why the cost of housing is going up. Interest rates are a big one. In the case of rental it regions like BC it is rent on new leases, not existing tenants.

[theman23]

l did not ask you to explain how rent control works. How does any of that explain why rent went up 8.9% YoY nationally or that overall shelter inflation now is growing at a faster rate than it did last year (6.4% vs 4.7%)?