Federal Government & Politics II

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

EV mandates make a massive assumption that EV cars will be just as cheap/convenient to own/operate by 2035 as ICE cars are today, which is unlikely. Unless there is some breakthrough that allows you to safely charge a 5000lb vehicle to full in 5 minutes, the likely outcome of EV mandates are massive inflation of used ICE cars. This is something for the market to sort out, not governments.

Tired old FUD talking points as usual.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The mandate isn't nearly as onerous as everyone whining about it thinks. It's only new sales. Only on Light Duty Vehicles. And includes plug in hybrids. That's about as mild an intervention as ever. The idea that the government is going to show up with a tow truck and confiscate your gas car (or whatever other fearmongering fantasy is running around) is patently ridiculous. Come 2035, easily 60-70% of vehicles on the road will still be ICEVs.

We've also seen what automakers do with no mandates. Long wait times and higher prices for EVs in Canada, while they prioritize markets with mandates or massive subsidies. Heck, we see this inside Canada itself. Compare wait times and retail pricing for the same EV model in Ontario vs Quebec (which imposes a provincial mandate).

Lastly, every $20/t in carbon tax adds 4.4¢/L to gas prices (not including HST). Even if the carbon tax kept going up by $20/t till 2040 (something not currently planned for), you'd be paying 81¢/L in carbon tax. This would make gas about ~$2/L assuming $70/bbl and current taxes and fees. We're not going to be seeing $6/L gas in our lifetime unless Saudi Arabia and Alberta get nuked at the same time.

The carbon tax will have to increase massively in order to really impact change. $6 a litre is an exaggeration but waiting to 2040 to get to $2L will not cause the change in behaviour and purchasing decisions needed. Hence the mandate. I think they can work hand in hand as $2 gas makes the government not allowing ICE vehicles seem less draconian as most will already choose EVs assuming extensive charging infrastructure, cheap electricity and gas prices at those levels.

As I said the odds of any of this happening seem low. Maybe in 2029 we get an NDP-Green Coalition and they catch up but any suspension of both policies will set us back a lot more than 4 years as reintroducing these policies will be almost starting from scratch.

Originally Posted by Build.It

EV mandates make a massive assumption that EV cars will be just as cheap/convenient to own/operate by 2035 as ICE cars are today, which is unlikely. Unless there is some breakthrough that allows you to safely charge a 5000lb vehicle to full in 5 minutes, the likely outcome of EV mandates are massive inflation of used ICE cars. This is something for the market to sort out, not governments.

Another key thing people aren't talking about is that they are also mandating that by 2026 (basically 2 years from now since it's already December) that 20% of all sales are to be EVs. Well that requires people to actually buy these EV/Plug-in cars, which they are struggling to sell at the moment. Are they going to tell automakers/dealerships that they cannot sell any additional ICE cars until their EV/Plug-in sales have caught up. The likeliest outcome as far as I can tell of this is that far fewer cars will be sold per year, which means we will start seeing massive used car price inflation starting as early as 2 years from now. Combine that with a period of higher interest rates, and the outcome to the average family's finances will be even more devastating than they are facing currently. This won't have much of an effect on the small minority of Canadians whose living situations don't require personal ownership of a vehicle, but for everyone else this will result in a massive deterioration of their quality of life.

Interesting and counter to current narrative that buying a ICE is risky as they will be phased out. Of course you are right if you arbitrarily limit the supply of something it's price goes up not down.

I'll take any even odd bets we sell less than 20% EVs in 2026. It's simply not happening.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Docere

There's some talk about this St. Paul's by-election being a "test" of the Jewish vote following the UN vote. St. Paul's has the fourth largest Jewish population in the country. It's a very small-"l" liberal riding though and it's been safe for the federal Liberals since 1993. The Jewish community in St. Paul's is also more progressive than it is in say, Eglinton-Lawrence. A segment could "send a message" though.

The Jewish population of the GTA are already mostly Conservative party voters. There's a reason why Thornhill is one of a handful of seats in the region the CPC has held throughout the Trudeau era, and why the closest the CPC came to winning a seat in the 416 was in York Centre.

[1overcosc]

Honestly my main apprehension of EV mandates is that all EV models currently available are the horrible "connected smart cars" that have a constant internet connection and are constantly data mining its users and selling the data to analytics companies.

One component of the EV mandate should be stronger privacy laws giving vehicle owners a "right to disconnect" and not have their vehicles connected to the internet if they don't want to be.

All that said this is really more of a "new car" problem than an EV problem as most ICE vehicles sold today have the same issue. But there's a lot more "legacy" ICE models (ie. New cars sold in current models years for vehicle models that haven't had any substantial changes in years) that aren't like this. My partners 2021 Kia Rio for example.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Tired old FUD talking points as usual.

Actually it's not FUD - just the reality of the technology at the moment.

The fastest chargers on the market currently take 30 minutes to charge a small EV to just 80% - and this is the top of the line technology currently available. Compare this to the 5 minutes it takes to fill up a large ICE SUV.

In the best case scenario you would need to have 6x as many EV chargers as there are gas pumps currently just to fulfill the same amount of demand without running into shortages. But we will likely need more than that.

Yes some people can charge at home, but with the societal trend towards high density living, ie. no driveway/garage, most people are going to have to rely on public EV chargers.

Canada is a relatively small market for vehicle manufacturers - so much so that we just copy the US' standards for vehicles, rather than having our own. Vehicle manufacturers aren't going to bend over backwards just to please us, and past policy makers have clearly known this, or we wouldn't be a carbon copy of the US' standards (aside from very minor things like metric dials).

For this to not backfire massively, one of the following needs to happen:

1. Install 500,000 new public EV chargers by 2035. That is one public EV charger for every 80 Canadians.

2. EV charging speeds need to be reduced to 5 minutes, which would require some sort of technical breakthrough where regular people can safely use extremely high voltage devices (minimum 6x as high voltage as the fastest Level 3 chargers currently).

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The carbon tax will have to increase massively in order to really impact change. $6 a litre is an exaggeration but waiting to 2040 to get to $2L will not cause the change in behaviour and purchasing decisions needed. Hence the mandate. I think they can work hand in hand as $2 gas makes the government not allowing ICE vehicles seem less draconian as most will already choose EVs assuming extensive charging infrastructure, cheap electricity and gas prices at those levels.

As I said the odds of any of this happening seem low. Maybe in 2029 we get an NDP-Green Coalition and they catch up but any suspension of both policies will set us back a lot more than 4 years as reintroducing these policies will be almost starting from scratch.

The carbon tax isn't exclusively about driving change in car shopping behaviour. It effects all CO2 producing activities. It's precisely because $2 gas won't drive much change that automakers need to be pushed to change supply. But really the genesis of this mandate was the supply shortage. Buyers have been complaining for years now that outside of Québec or BC, EVs are hard to get and marked up more. The government simply took their mandates and mandate it national.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I'll take any even odd bets we sell less than 20% EVs in 2026. It's simply not happening.

5 years I was laughed at on this forum for saying the original 30% by 2030 (30 by 30) target was achievable, which foresaw 10% by 2025. We're now well on track to hit 20% by the end of 2026. Like I've said before, people really struggle with the idea of exponential growth.

Incidentally 2025 is also when most automakers are planning for a whole bunch of EV models to hit the market. I'd be surprised if we don't hit 20%. If missed, it won't be by much. And the mandate will probably be in place just long enough that even reversal by a future government won't change corporate supply planning substantially for 2026 at least.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Tired old FUD talking points as usual.

This version of migs sounds a bit more intelligent.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The Jewish population of the GTA are already mostly Conservative party voters. There's a reason why Thornhill is one of a handful of seats in the region the CPC has held throughout the Trudeau era, and why the closest the CPC came to winning a seat in the 416 was in York Centre.

St. Paul's is about 15% Jewish but the Jewish community there is much more small-"l" liberal than further north. The 85% of the population that's not Jewish is of course very "inner city Toronto" and not likely to be voting CPC.

There's a lot of residential "sorting" along religious, cultural and socioeconomic lines too. North of Eglinton, the Bathurst Corridor neighborhoods skew Orthodox, traditional side of Conservative and Russian/FSU. If you're Reform or secular-progressive you're not likely to be living in Thornhill or Bathurst Manor.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

Actually it's not FUD - just the reality of the technology at the moment.

No, it's FUD.

1. Why is a 5 minute fillup required? Is this written somewhere in the Constitution I forgot about?

Fact: Effort to charge an EV is even faster because you just plug in at home. No need to stop at a gas station on your commute, line up, get out in the cold, and so on.

Canada is a relatively small market for vehicle manufacturers - so much so that we just copy the US' standards for vehicles, rather than having our own. Vehicle manufacturers aren't going to bend over backwards just to please us.

How is this different from ICE vehicles today?

In the best case scenario you would need to have 6x as many EV chargers as there are gas pumps currently just to fulfill the same amount of demand without running into shortages. But we will likely need more than that.

Why is that the best case scenario? Sounds like the worst to me.

Do you know how many chargers exist today vs. gas pumps?

Do you know how easy they are to install?

Do you know you can plug an EV into an existing outlet?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I'll take any even odd bets we sell less than 20% EVs in 2026. It's simply not happening.

BC is already over 20% today. Demand is still high, the grid isn't failing or any other FUD scenario.

[WarrenC12]

This graph will have to change dramatically to not hit 20% by 2026.

[Truenorth00]

Including PHEVs is also a huge out for automakers. Most of the ones struggling with BEVs are planning lots of plug-in hybrids. It's really not much of a lift to meet 20% by end 2026 with PHEVs included.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Including PHEVs is also a huge out for automakers. Most of the ones struggling with BEVs are planning lots of plug-in hybrids. It's really not much of a lift to meet 20% by end 2026 with PHEVs included.

It also helps our local FUD complainers. No need to change habits at all in a PHEV, just use the gas engine.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

No, it's FUD.

1. Why is a 5 minute fillup required? Is this written somewhere in the Constitution I forgot about?

Fact: Effort to charge an EV is even faster because you just plug in at home. No need to stop at a gas station on your commute, line up, get out in the cold, and so on.



How is this different from ICE vehicles today?



Why is that the best case scenario? Sounds like the worst to me.

Do you know how many chargers exist today vs. gas pumps?

Do you know how easy they are to install?

Do you know you can plug an EV into an existing outlet?

It is only possible to charge at home if you have a garage, or a private driveway at the very least. For the millions of people who live in apartments, condos, townhouses (with parking lots), or simple street parking, this isn't possible. They will have no choice but to rely on comparably slow public chargers, or drive a used ICE car, or an even more expensive PHEV.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Build.It

It is only possible to charge at home if you have a garage, or a private driveway at the very least. For the millions of people who live in apartments, condos, townhouses (with parking lots), or simple street parking, this isn't possible. They will have no choice but to rely on comparably slow public chargers, or drive a used ICE car, or an even more expensive PHEV.

Home chargers are generally "slow" as well. Mine is 7.2 kw which is pretty much the standard for private home chargers. It allows you to fully charge your vehicle overnight. Public chargers vary from 7.2 kw to over 100 kw. A public charger isn't necessarily going to be "slow". They'll install the power level they think is needed for those locations.

My kid's neighbourhood in central Montreal has public chargers mixed in with on-street parking spaces here and there. They are 7.2 kw and meant for charging overnight by residents and visitors. They also have a few spots (generally at businesses like dépanneurs and stores) that have faster charging from 50-100 kw.

[Truenorth00]

Public charging isn't static. It's getting better all the time. The big difference will come when grocery stores really get in game. Loblaws is starting to do just that. Park at a 75 kW charger and in 30 mins for $6, you'll have enough range for the average commuter, while doing groceries.

Overall though, "But what about muh charging," is a red herring. If an EV doesn't work for you, just buy ICE or PHEV. The goal is 20% for 2026. Presumably the charging situation will be a lot better by the time 100% of sales have to be PHEVs or BEVs in 2035. And even then you'll still be able to get a PHEV.

[Hackslack]

Not sure if it’s been talked about, but a big portion of cost when filling up a tank of gas is the gas tax, which is used to pay for building, maintenance, and modernizing roads. What would replace the gas tax? Also, what will the price would we expect for charging a full battery come 2035?surely the government will do everything they can to get their hands some sort of revenue when that revenue is lost from ICE vehicles

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Public charging isn't static. It's getting better all the time. The big difference will come when grocery stores really get in game. Loblaws is starting to do just that. Park at a 75 kW charger and in 30 mins for $6, you'll have enough range for the average commuter, while doing groceries.

Overall though, "But what about muh charging," is a red herring. If an EV doesn't work for you, just buy ICE or PHEV. The goal is 20% for 2026. Presumably the charging situation will be a lot better by the time 100% of sales have to be PHEVs or BEVs in 2035. And even then you'll still be able to get a PHEV.

In areas where people don't have personal driveways and garages, on-street parking spots will gradually be replaced with charging spots. (Not all of them, but a decent chunk of them as we transition more and more to electric.)

It's already happening all over Montreal as I've said. Here are some examples. These are no parking zones unless your vehicle is actually charging.

https://www.google.com/maps/@45.4495...8192?entry=ttu

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Not sure if it’s been talked about, but a big portion of cost when filling up a tank of gas is the gas tax, which is used to pay for building, maintenance, and modernizing roads. What would replace the gas tax? Also, what will the price would we expect for charging a full battery come 2035?surely the government will do everything they can to get their hands some sort of revenue when that revenue is lost from ICE vehicles

Not to mention the extra wear on our roads from all the extra weight.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Not sure if it’s been talked about, but a big portion of cost when filling up a tank of gas is the gas tax, which is used to pay for building, maintenance, and modernizing roads. What would replace the gas tax? Also, what will the price would we expect for charging a full battery come 2035?surely the government will do everything they can to get their hands some sort of revenue when that revenue is lost from ICE vehicles

The replacement will likely be a road tax based on usage (newer smart cars could be required to keep a log of where and when they drove, and this could be reported to Revenue Canada for a tax calculation). Alternatively, there could be a tax applied to the use of public fast chargers, but, this would be less fair since wealthier individuals with private homes, garages and their own charging infrastructure might be able to escape this.

Regardless, there will be a reckoning, and EV drivers will be required to pay a road usage tax of some form.