Canada's 4th city

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

On a long enough timeline BC effectively becomes a port for Alberta's economy.

One has lots of room for expanding industry the other has nooks and crannies with ocean access.

Vancouver has around 233m sq ft of industrial and warehousing space (mostly warehousing) a 1.4% vacancy rate and 8.1m sq ft under construction. Increasingly, given industrial land availability, industrial buildings are multi-storey. Even some warehouse buildings.

Calgary has 172m sq ft of space, a vacancy rate of 3.2% and 3.8m under construction.

Edmonton has around 167m sq ft of space, a vacancy rate of 4.5%, and 1.5m under construction.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well except a lot of industry these days is not in making physical widgets but digital ones, which BC far outpaces Alberta in. And it doesn't need a ton of space either.

And yet this value isn't reflected in GDP or earnings.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

And yet this value isn't reflected in GDP or earnings.

It may not be reflected in GDP, but both average and median wages for those working in Professional, scientific and technical services in BC are now higher than for those working in Alberta. (That wasn't true in 2019, but it was in 2023). [source].

Apparently the GDP being generated by oil and gas these days isn't staying in Alberta, or going to its employees, and the rest of the economy isn't as strong as it once was. [see this report, for example].

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

There is nothing unscathed in BC's cost environment. Including cognitive labour that is impacted by scarce residential land.

Wouldn't be surprised if Calgary starts siphoning tech jobs as well.

Based on what? Calgary has been a cheaper real estate market to operate in for a decade now with piles of vacant office space and cheap housing, yet Vancouver continues to substantially outpace their tech growth. Vancouver was the fastest growing tech market in North America last year, and like I said it's not like Vancouver being extraordinarily expensive is a new phenomenon.

I can't comment on any details but I am aware of several large US tech firms poking around Vancouver to a open new office or expand their existing in a large way, yet through those same sources I am not aware of any big US firms looking at any similar substantial moves in Calgary.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

And yet this value isn't reflected in GDP or earnings.

How so? Vancouver's tech wages are in line with the rest of the country and tech itself contributes a large portion of BCs economy. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/da...ile_report.pdf

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

And yet this value isn't reflected in GDP or earnings.

BC's GDP hasn't cratered preciously because it's still kept alive by the tech sector...it helps offset/obscure the loss in productivity perpetuated by the RE bubble.

But given Vancouver's position on the West Coast, favourable climate/setting, with the shortest distance to 3 of America's most powerful tech hubs (Seattle, Bay Area and SoCal) and the same timezone, Vancouver is still severely under-performing relative to its full potential.

[trueviking]

The answer is Calgary….for now.

[WhipperSnapper]

Tech in Canada is not something to gloat. 95% if not more is because it's just cheaper here; similar to Mexico with manufacturing and/ or assembly. The fact it is comparably well paying is just sadder.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Changing City

It may not be reflected in GDP, but both average and median wages for those working in Professional, scientific and technical services in BC are now higher than for those working in Alberta. (That wasn't true in 2019, but it was in 2023). [source].

Apparently the GDP being generated by oil and gas these days isn't staying in Alberta, or going to its employees, and the rest of the economy isn't as strong as it once was. [see this report, for example].

There are a lot of claims in this report, many dubious. Wages are still very high in Alberta especially considering the lower level of higher education compared to at least Ontario and BC. They claim Calgary and Edmonton are among the most expensive cities to live in Canada? Sure if "among" means top 10 of 15 largest cities.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

There are a lot of claims in this report, many dubious. Wages are still very high in Alberta especially considering the lower level of higher education compared to at least Ontario and BC. They claim Calgary and Edmonton are among the most expensive cities to live in Canada? Sure if "among" means top 10 of 15 largest cities.

I think it's probably a reference to Statistics Canada Market Basket Measure study that found "The cost to put food on the table, heat your home and get around the city is now higher in Calgary than in any other major city in Canada, outside of the territories".

[isaidso]

Calgary is Canada's #4 and it will cement that position going forward. I wouldn't be surprised if Canadians talk about our Big 4 metros (instead of Big 3) a generation or 2 from now.

[MolsonExport]

Will Calgary continue to pull away from the other Big two contenders? I think it will, but it is not a foregone conclusion. Right now, it is much, much closer to Ottawa and Edmonton than it is to the big three of Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver. Thus Calgary is the King of the "Next Three".

I could see Ottawa sustaining its momentum (and if Alberta keeps attracting shitloads of people from other provinces and abroad, Edmonton too).

When is the inflection point? If Calgary hits 2.5 million, while the other two CMAs sit below 2 million, I could see it being incorporated into a new "Big 4".

KWC+G (Guelph) is another contender...much smaller than the Next three, but it could catch up. Winnipeg and QC are still larger, but lack the catchment basin of nearby, super-pricey Toronto. London....used to be a stable, slow-but-steady growth place, but it has become more boom-and-bust over the past couple of economic cycles.

[76samian]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Will Calgary continue to pull away from the other Big two contenders? I think it will, but it is not a foregone conclusion. Right now, it is much, much closer to Ottawa and Edmonton than it is to the big three of Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver. Thus Calgary is the King of the "Next Three".

I could see Ottawa sustaining its momentum (and if Alberta keeps attracting shitloads of people from other provinces and abroad, Edmonton too).

When is the inflection point? If Calgary hits 2.5 million, while the other two CMAs sit below 2 million, I could see it being incorporated into a new "Big 4".

KWC+G (Guelph) is another contender...much smaller than the Next three, but it could catch up. Winnipeg and QC are still larger, but lack the catchment basin of nearby, super-pricey Toronto. London....used to be a stable, slow-but-steady growth place, but it has become more boom-and-bust over the past couple of economic cycles.

Dont forget about Hamilton/Burlington. its has steady growth and not slowing

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by 76samian

Dont forget about Hamilton/Burlington. its has steady growth and not slowing

In the national context, places like Hamilton, KWC, London, Barrie and maybe even Peterborough are unlikely to be considered independently. They are all increasingly part of the same growing conurbation.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Changing City

It may not be reflected in GDP, but both average and median wages for those working in Professional, scientific and technical services in BC are now higher than for those working in Alberta. (That wasn't true in 2019, but it was in 2023). [source].

Welcome news. Not great news. You need a lot more than slightly better than Calgary to have a decent quality of life in Vancouver.

Taken as a whole, when I look at all the stats posted here from the Vancouver defence brigade, I do get the sense that Calgary while still firmly #4 is actually closing the gap, more than Vancouver pulling away.

Originally Posted by isaidso

Calgary is Canada's #4 and it will cement that position going forward. I wouldn't be surprised if Canadians talk about our Big 4 metros (instead of Big 3) a generation or 2 from now.

Calgary has a ways to go before it's included in the same ranks as the Big 3. But it's entirely possible, it happens on our lifetimes.

[Zeej]

It is in Canada's interest to have a wider range of 'big-cities' to choose from. English Canadians have generally been limited to 2 big cities for a while now. Offering new options other than Toronto and Vancouver should actually stand to benefit Toronto and Vancouver.

[logan5]

Look what just a small decline in oil has done to Calgary - 25% office vacancy rate. Imagine what it will be like 20 years from now when most cars on the road are electric. Hard to see Calgary being the 4th city for long. Ottawa will likely surpass in the next couple decades. By quite a bit.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by logan5

Look what just a small decline in oil has done to Calgary - 25% office vacancy rate. Imagine what it will be like 20 years from now when most cars on the road are electric. Hard to see Calgary being the 4th city for long. Ottawa will likely surpass in the next couple decades. By quite a bit.

Yeah that's what I suspect as well. Kind of like how some of the US rust belt cities (or Sydney NS and environs) stalled after manufacturing went offshore. With the decline of their primary industry, those places continue to exist but they have trouble retaining their previously high growth rates over the long term.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by logan5

Look what just a small decline in oil has done to Calgary - 25% office vacancy rate. Imagine what it will be like 20 years from now when most cars on the road are electric. Hard to see Calgary being the 4th city for long. Ottawa will likely surpass in the next couple decades. By quite a bit.

They still have the resources to pull off a Texas if there's political will. If achieved, diversification would transition them out of the oil business in the long run.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by logan5

Look what just a small decline in oil has done to Calgary - 25% office vacancy rate. Imagine what it will be like 20 years from now when most cars on the road are electric. Hard to see Calgary being the 4th city for long. Ottawa will likely surpass in the next couple decades. By quite a bit.

I predict in 20 years as the size of the federal government is dramatically slashed and shifted to WFH and the oil patch sees a rennaisance and recover this prediction will look exactly opposite to correct.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I will save my opinion on it till later but for now, if you guys were asked by a foreigner what is Canada's most important city is after the big 3, how would you respond?

How would I respond? Kidding.

I'd say Ottawa is the capital, and Alberta has two cities that are different from the rest, think more American, Republican, Trump, etc., less so in Edmonton. And on the east coast there's Halifax, not really part of our daily life in St. John's but considerably larger and serves three whole provinces.