Winnipeg or Québec - 1 Million

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Architype

I've never considered Hastings or Pender to be Gastown, although it might be included in some broader and more specialized definition. Gastown seems older than the Exchange District, and IMO the buildings predate most of the historic high rises in both cities, which are mostly from around 1900 to 1920. Buildings like the Sun Tower, Dominion Building, and Seymour Building are outside this area.

I probably should have written "what we want to consider Gastown for the purposes of this thread". If it's the official area then sure, it doesn't have the more impressive buildings (mostly older ones and it's more intact), but that doesn't mean much for comparing to other arbitrary districts of other cities as some of the nicest buildings are just a block or two outside of that area. There is a large swath of city with a high density of historic buildings, although many of them are in the DTES and Chinatown is run down these days as well.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

I chose Winnipeg only because it has a head start atm. It also has the edge in it's current growth rate. Things can change though. I could see Ville Du Quebec see a surge in retired people moving there from Montreal as housing prices continue to rise in that city. Also with more jobs now being remote I could see younger people from Montreal and from other urban Centres moving to the region in search of more affordable housing. The one thing holding back migration form other parts of the country though might be the strict language laws.

A city that I see beating both Winnipeg and QC to the million mark is Halifax. Geographically, politically, and it's overall weather beats both of those cities. Not to mention it has a current growth rate of 4.4% where I think Winnipeg is around 0.95% and QC is at .66%.

wot? Halifax is growing quickly but is so damn far behind.

2021 CMA pop
Halifax 465,703
Winnipeg 834,678
Quebec City 839,311


CMA (pop 2011) / growth 2011-2021
Halifax (390,328) / +75,375 or ~7,500/yr
Quebec City (765,706) / +73,605 or ~7,400/yr
Winnipeg (730,018) / +104,660 or ~10,500/yr

CMA growth 2016-2021

Quebec City +39,015 or ~7,800/yr
Winnipeg +56,189 or ~11,200/yr
Halifax +62,313 or ~12,500/yr

Quebec and Winnipeg are 160k-165k to 1 Million, and Halifax is around 370k behind them!
Halifax needs 534,000 people and quickly lol

[someone123]

I don't think Halifax will be first to the million mark but it is easy to underestimate its current population and how fast it's growing. The old estimates don't mean much as the growth rate has gone way up since 2015 and the CMA expanded for the 2021 census but that wasn't included in the 2022 estimates. During the past year, Statistics Canada estimates that NS added 40,000 people and most of those probably moved to Halifax. Last year Halifax grew by a lot more in absolute numbers than Winnipeg or Quebec City.

I'm not sure about geographical adjustments for Winnipeg or Quebec City. The 2023 estimate for Halifax could be 535,000 or so.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't think Halifax will be first to the million mark but people also underestimate its current population and how fast it's likely growing. The old estimates don't mean much as the growth rate has gone way up since 2015 and the CMA expanded for the 2021 census but that wasn't included in the 2022 estimates. During the past year, Statistics Canada estimates that NS added 40,000 people and most of those probably moved to Halifax.

I'm not sure about geographical adjustments for Winnipeg or Quebec City.

The 2023 estimate for Halifax could be 535,000 or so.

even if the 2023 estimate is 535k, Winnipeg and Quebec are ever closer to 900k

[Centerprovince]

Halifax’s population was at 481,000 on July 1/22. If it grew to 535,000 this year, that would be more than the total 40,000 that Nova Scotia grew in the past year. Winnipeg was at 872,000 on July 1/22, Manitoba grew by over 42,000 in the last year, with most going to Winnipeg. Winnipeg has probably already surpassed 900,000. Keep in mind, Halifax relies more on interprovincial migration for population growth, while Winnipeg relies more on international migration, Winnipeg/Manitoba didn’t grow much during the 2020/21 pandemic, as there was a pause in international immigration. Halifax was much less effected during that time, and has benefited from the insane home prices in Ontario.

[MonctonRad]

Halifax absorbed East Hants into it's CMA last year. This accounts for some of the increase in the CMA population.

[Nouvellecosse]

If it did grow to 535k, we'd basically be on par with the whole province of NFLD & Labrador. If that trajectory continues that would be the 2nd province we've overtaken.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

If it did grow to 535k, we'd basically be on par with the whole province of NFLD & Labrador. If that trajectory continues that would be the 2nd province we've overtaken.

Time to make Halifax a city-state I guess........

[Drybrain]

Halifax won’t beat Winnipeg to a million, nor Quebec in all likelihood. It’s not outrageous to think it could beat Hamilton, though I’d still give the edge to Hamilton.

Halifax would be in the next race to a million, with London and KWC. It’s a little smaller than both, but has also been growing somewhat faster than both as well. In any case, that’s a few decades away, and a lot can happen in the interim.

[thurmas]

Halifax can't even build a stadium not a major league town cheap cheap cheap

[Nouvellecosse]

I had no idea the city had even tried to build one. I thought it was just people on here speculating about it.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

I had no idea the city had even tried to build one. I thought it was just people on here speculating about it.

Well, there was the Commonwealth Games fiasco.......

As for the current need for a stadium, it is the old chicken and egg situation. Halifax has no need for a 25,000+ seat stadium unless it has a CFL team, but the CFL won't give Halifax a team until there is a stable ownership group and an appropriate stadium. Who will blink first? Personally, I don't think civic leadership gives a rat's ass about either the CFL or a stadium..................

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Well, there was the Commonwealth Games fiasco.......

As for the current need for a stadium, it is the old chicken and egg situation. Halifax has no need for a 25,000+ seat stadium unless it has a CFL team, but the CFL won't give Halifax a team until there is a stable ownership group and an appropriate stadium. Who will blink first? Personally, I don't think civic leadership gives a rat's ass about either the CFL or a stadium..................

Halifax could build a bare-bones 20k stadium. Ottawa's stadium will be downsized to about 22k, and we have three times the population.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Halifax won’t beat Winnipeg to a million, nor Quebec in all likelihood. It’s not outrageous to think it could beat Hamilton, though I’d still give the edge to Hamilton.

Halifax would be in the next race to a million, with London and KWC. It’s a little smaller than both, but has also been growing somewhat faster than both as well. In any case, that’s a few decades away, and a lot can happen in the interim.

yes it is, because Hamilton's CMA includes Burlington and Grimsby. All 3 of which are now building mid-high rise high density residential.
Not to mention Hamilton's head start over Halifax's CMA of 320,000 more people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ions_in_Canada

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Wigs

yes it is, because Hamilton's CMA includes Burlington and Grimsby. All 3 of which are now building mid-high rise high density residential.
Not to mention Hamilton's head start over Halifax's CMA of 320,000 more people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ions_in_Canada

Aren't London and KCW both growing about 12,000 to 15,000 people per year?

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Wigs

yes it is, because Hamilton's CMA includes Burlington and Grimsby. All 3 of which are now building mid-high rise high density residential.
Not to mention Hamilton's head start over Halifax's CMA of 320,000 more people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ions_in_Canada

All I meant is that Halifax has been outpacing Hamilton in raw growth numbers for some years, moreso than Winnipeg—but I agree, Hamilton is much larger as it is and it’d be very unlikely.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Aren't London and KCW both growing about 12,000 to 15,000 people per year?

I have no idea. My response was in regards to Halifax and Hamilton.
I think both are growing quickly but don't know the figures.

[Wigs]

I crunched the numbers. CMA growth 2016-2021. sorted by yearly avg growth
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ions_in_Canada

#12 Halifax +62,313 / ~12,500/yr
#8 Winnipeg +56,189 / ~11,200/yr
#10 K-C-W +51,953 / ~10,400/yr
#11 London +49,482 / ~9,900/yr
#7 Quebec City +39,015 / ~7,800/yr
#9 Hamilton +37,639 / ~7,500/yr

Hamilton will accelerate in growth in the next 5-10 years as evidenced by the recent mini boom of highrises in the 15-30 storey range. As more folks get priced out of Toronto, Hamilton is seen as an alternative urban area with an attractive historic housing stock and funky post industrialist vibe/feel

As more folks get priced out of the GTA and Hamilton, Niagara is seen as an attractive option.
#13 St. Catharines-Niagara +27,530 / ~5,500/yr will be one to watch for the 2026 census as every municipality is growing and Niagara Falls, Thorold, and Welland are in rapid growth mode. St. Catharines is at the very beginning of high-rise mode with the recent completion of two 21 storey apartment towers, and downtown with its soon to be tallest-an 18 storey under construction, 30 storey to be built (in process of demo of old buildings), and a 37 storey in planning stages.

[vanatox]

The 2016-2021 period is a bit of an outlier to predict anything regarding CMAs due to the pandemic. Some areas of the country experienced higher growth due to people leaving the big cities and relocating there. This movement of people is now reduced significantly. You see now a small trend of people moving back to the bigger city since they need to spend more days in the office. I see that in Ottawa. Other CMAs grew less. In Quebec for example growth from end of 2020 up to early 2022 was way lower then usual and other parts of Canada.

[Wigs]

well until 2026 we won't have any solid post pandemic data. Estimates can be way off from censuses.