MIAMI | One Brickell CityCentre | 977 FT | 60 FLOORS

[rivernorthlurker]

I'm 1000% rooting for this but unf I think JMKeynes sentiment is more realistic.

830 Brickell is still filling up and is the only new major office tower in Miami in years (decades?). And it's only 525,000 sqft office from what I've read I've been shocked at how relatively small the Miami office market is myself. Trend of companies 'Taking their talents to Miami' peaked during the pandemic years - I'm not sure how long this will carry over for years after when the initial excitement wanes.

One Brickell CityCentre is gonna be really hard to pre-lease 25-40% when the Citadel building is 100% a go/reliable and already anchored by Citadel itself and will put additional space on the market.

The square footages below are tiny, esp after WeWork pulled out of 147,000 sqft in August. And Citadel's 90k sqft is only temporary until their building is done. Those two leases were half the building... Now we're talking a puny 250k sqft (not fully leased) outside those two.

https://floridayimby.com/2022/08/cit...-district.html

The roster includes: Sidley Austin – 60,000 square feet, Microsoft – 50,000 square feet, A-CAP – 20,000 square feet, Thoma Bravo – 36,500 square feet, Ci Financial – 40,000 square feet, Marsh Insurance – 25,000 square feet and AerCap – 20,000 square feet. Citadel now sits at the helm of this roster with the 90,000-square foot lease. Asking rents at 830 Brickell are reportedly far above the average in Miami. Commercial real estate firm JLL reports asking rents between $125 – $150 per square foot at the tower, while the average in Miami ranges around $51 per square foot.

As mentioned Wework also pulled out of 147,000 sqft in August. Maybe the sqft $ was too expensive? Since Miami seems to be gravy for them https://www.thenextmiami.com/wework-...top-worldwide/

[JMKeynes]

Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if even Citadel dramatically reduced the amount of office space in their tower and shifts space to hotels and condos. I’d be shocked if Citadel needs more than 300k sf in Miami. Everyone will want to go to NY.

[rivernorthlurker]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if even Citadel dramatically reduced the amount of office space in their tower and shifts space to hotels and condos. I’d be shocked if Citadel needs more than 300k sf in Miami. Everyone will want to go to NY.

The Citadel Miami office might literally end up being a bit of a 'company perk' to some degree.

147,000/525,000 sqft of the 830 Brickell = 28% of the most premier office tower in a 'once in a generation' real estate boom in Miami, being leased (previously) by a co-working company doesn't exactly scream 'everyone's moving to Miami' commercialy, quite the opposite.

By comparison, Sterling Bay is building random 500k sqft offices in West Loop Chicago filled with companies I've never heard of and the city has a fairly high office vacancy rate https://sterlingbay.com/our-portfolio/

I just feel the 'narrative' for office leasing in Miami doesn't exactly fit the evidence unfortunately.

[JMKeynes]

Originally Posted by rivernorthlurker

The Citadel Miami office might literally end up being a bit of a 'company perk' to some degree.

147,000/525,000 sqft of the 830 Brickell = 28% of the most premier office tower in a 'once in a generation' real estate boom in Miami, being leased (previously) by a co-working company doesn't exactly scream 'everyone's moving to Miami' commercialy, quite the opposite.

By comparison, Sterling Bay is building random 500k sqft offices in West Loop Chicago filled with companies I've never heard of and the city has a fairly high office vacancy rate https://sterlingbay.com/our-portfolio/

I just feel the 'narrative' for office leasing in Miami doesn't exactly fit the evidence unfortunately.

I completely agree.

[rivernorthlurker]

Or maybe I'm totally wrong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...g-office-lease

Kirkland & Ellis signed a lease for 115,000 square feet across six floors at 830 Brickell, a new office development that has attracted the likes of Citadel, Microsoft Corp. and private equity firm Thoma Bravo, according to a statement Monday. The 55-story building, developed by OKO Group and Cain International, is now fully leased ahead of its completion. The deal by Kirkland, which has large offices in Chicago and New York, makes it one of the biggest law-firm tenants in Miami.

Let the leasing for CityCentre begin!

Originally Posted by rivernorthlurker

I'm 1000% rooting for this but unf I think JMKeynes sentiment is more realistic.

830 Brickell is still filling up and is the only new major office tower in Miami in years (decades?). And it's only 525,000 sqft office from what I've read I've been shocked at how relatively small the Miami office market is myself. Trend of companies 'Taking their talents to Miami' peaked during the pandemic years - I'm not sure how long this will carry over for years after when the initial excitement wanes.

One Brickell CityCentre is gonna be really hard to pre-lease 25-40% when the Citadel building is 100% a go/reliable and already anchored by Citadel itself and will put additional space on the market.

The square footages below are tiny, esp after WeWork pulled out of 147,000 sqft in August. And Citadel's 90k sqft is only temporary until their building is done. Those two leases were half the building... Now we're talking a puny 250k sqft (not fully leased) outside those two.



As mentioned Wework also pulled out of 147,000 sqft in August. Maybe the sqft $ was too expensive? Since Miami seems to be gravy for them https://www.thenextmiami.com/wework-...top-worldwide/

[JMKeynes]

This building will not rise as a 1.5m+ sf office tower. The demand isn’t there.

[rivernorthlurker]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

This building will not rise as a 1.5m+ sf office tower. The demand isn’t there.

Maybe, maybe not..., but they said 25-40% prelease to start construction. So that's a minimum of .25*1.5million = 375,000 sqft. Possible, especially with a one big anchor tenant. 830 Brickell has over 500k leased now.

But I don't believe they'd start with just 25%.

[chris08876]

Could be that they are aiming for enough to get this rolling and than overtime it will fill up (overtime meaning years). So long as they are willing to take the risk.

[Zapatan]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

This building will not rise as a 1.5m+ sf office tower. The demand isn’t there.

Not now at least, but maybe 5 or so years down the road? Hopefully.

[rivernorthlurker]

A major anchor tenant is a must which is hard to speculate on. If they get an anchor tenant maybe they can hit 40% with a couple other. But even if they do I feel like they won't be able to rent the other 60% (900k sqft) easily or at all. Not my money though. Hopefully it gets built.

[Hudson11]

830 Brickell is fully leased before it even completed construction. There is robust demand for office space in Miami. And like Rivernorth mentioned about Chicago, a lot of the demand is spread out across Miami-Dade in smaller developments that don't often get the headlines on Nextmiami. Miami is a lot bigger than just Brickell and the Central Business District. Just look at how the Cruise ship industry is building massive, impressive HQs in the Port. But outlets like Commercial Observer, Miamiherald and bisnow do well at covering what is happening on the ground.

[Dale]

Originally Posted by Hudson11

830 Brickell is fully leased before it even completed construction. There is robust demand for office space in Miami. And like Rivernorth mentioned about Chicago, a lot of the demand is spread out across Miami-Dade in smaller developments that don't often get the headlines on Nextmiami. Miami is a lot bigger than just Brickell and the Central Business District. Just look at how the Cruise ship industry is building massive, impressive HQs in the Port. But outlets like Commercial Observer, Miamiherald and bisnow do well at covering what is happening on the ground.

I doubt that they’d be steaming ahead if it wasn’t drawing a lot of interest. But what do I know ?

[Altoic]

If this keeps the original height of around 300m it'll be insane. Miami will have 2 maybe even 3 supertalls U/C. Versus none only a year ago.

[rivernorthlurker]

Should probably reduce floor count on thread title from 80 to 68 and maybe height to 1000 ft.

But as the quote below points out, the math doesn't really make sense since 68 floors * minimum 15 feet floor height = 1020 ft. (Same with trying to calculate 1.5 million sqft from the quoted floor plates and floor count). But there may be some creative floor counting going on. Maybe someone can count the actual floor numbers in the rendering.

https://floridayimby.com/2022/12/dev...ice-tower.html

Initial plans for this project called for 80 stories and a supertall height of 1,038 feet, or 1,049 feet above sea level. It’s been scaled down to 68 stories, hence the “near 1,000 feet” height stated above. This means that One Brickell City Centre may or may not reach supertall status as the minimum height to reach that mark is 984 feet, and claiming a building will be near 1,000 feet does not necessarily indicate it’s within the required range. However, with ceiling heights varying from 15 to 19 feet, and a 68-floor count, the likelihood of surpassing 984 feet is high.

Edit:

Ok I tried to count lol.

So there's 43 floors from the base of that wedge to the top so 43 * 32000 = 1.38 million sqft.
Then maybe 4 floors below that of 50k sqft? = 200k sqft so 1.58 million total... So something like that give or take variable size on the wedge. Then I guess parking below that. So the parking floors are gonna be really short like < 10 ft.

So maybe something like

43 fl standard floors, 43* 32k = 1.28 million sqft, 43* 15 ft = 645 ft
4 floors 50k sqft, 4 * 50k = 200k sqft, 4 * 20 ft = 80 ft
21 floors parking, 21 * 0 = 0 sqft, 21 * 10 ft = 210 ft

= 68 floors, 1.58 million sqft rentable, 935 ft height

Rough guesstimates but sorta in the ballpark with what they've quoted given variation in floor plate sizes and heights.

[Djesus777]

I don't see this thing going up to be honest... Vacancies are still high and 1.5M sq ft of office space when 60% of workers are back in the office is a huge risk. I get 830 Brickell is fully leased but let's be honest, it will be empty 3-4 days a week during work days. It does not make sense to lease a tower when it will be empty majority of the time.

[Dale]

I’m a Miami believer (on this one) until proven otherwise. I just don’t see Related and Ross *just now* moving on this if they weren’t getting positive indicators.

[JMKeynes]

Ross said that he needs to pre-lease 25-40% of the tower. Presumably, that’s what the banks require in order to give a construction loan. If he can’t, he can build a mixed-use tower. Something nice will rise there.

[Altoic]

NYC Wealth Exodus Drives Billionaire’s Bet on South Florida Boom
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...mium#xj4y7vzkg

One of Related’s mixed-use projects in West Palm Beach, dubbed The Square, has attracted the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Steve Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management. Other financial companies have signed leases at One Flagler, also in West Palm and set to be ready in 2024. Last year, Related unveiled plans to build one of the tallest skyscrapers in Miami.

“New York will continue to grow, but it has its challenges, and a lot of people who don’t have to be there are looking not to be there,” Ross said. “It’s changing, it’s getting younger, the older people are moving out, the wealthier people are moving out.”
Still, Ross, 82, acknowledged that younger workers are still largely attracted to big cities like New York.

“We have huge investments, we’re still doing tremendous developments in New York,” he said. “But I think Florida is going to capture an awful lot of people.”

[Dale]

Seems like a positive ...

https://www.thenextmiami.com/one-bri...ties/#comments

[NYguy]

https://www.thenextmiami.com/swire-h...-office-tower/

Swire Hires New VP To Oversee ‘Nearly 1,000-Foot-Tall’ Office Tower (& Other Projects)


March 29, 2023

The US arm of Swire Properties has announced the hiring of a new executive to oversee a “robust pipeline of new projects” planned by the company.

Kevin Davenport was hired by the company as Senior Vice President, Development, a press release said.

“Swire has played a crucial role in the transformation of Miami into the foremost destination for real estate development in South Florida and nationally,” Davenport said.

Davenport has 15 years of experience in property development and was previously Senior Vice President of Development at Brookfield Properties in New York.

Among the project to be overseen by Davenport will be One Brickell City Centre.

Groundbreaking for the office tower is planned for later this year, the company said today.

Davenport will also oversee residential development planned by the company, the release said.

One Brickell City Centre will be a “nearly 1,000-foot-tall Class A office building,” with the largest floor plates ever approved in the City of Miami, according to the release.