The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[MonctonRad]

Healthcare is a dogs breakfast, and, speaking as a practitioner, there is really very little the government can do about it in the short term.

The plain truth is that health care has been starved to death over the last 20 years or so. There were "cutbacks" almost every year, and health care economists advised the government that physicians were nothing more than cost centres, and that the only way to get health care costs under control was by having fewer physicians. The government loved this advice and cut medical school enrolments, despite knowing the demographic time bomb awaiting them in the 2020s.

If you were a provincial premier 20 years ago, well, then that simply wasn't your problem. This is the one major failing of multiparty democracy with elections every four years. You tend to have very short timelines in terms of policy development.

It takes a minimum of 11 years to mint a GP and 13 years to mint a medical specialist. Subspecialists might require 15 years of training. They are expanding enrolment at the medical schools in Halifax, Moncton and Saint John, and building a new one in Charlottetown, but it will take at least 12-15 years of pain before we start to see a dent in our medical manpower deficit. It is extremely frustrating and demoralizing to watch.

I will soon be part of the problem. I am 65 and will be leaving the call schedule at the end of the year (after 40 years of disrupted sleep patterns). I will fully retire in 2-3 years. There are many more like me. Things will get far worse before they get better...........

[q12]

As Ontario and BC Home Prices Sink, These 4 Provinces are Becoming More Expensive (Atlantic Canada)

PUBLISHED: 1:21 PM NOV 24, 2022
Since the February market peak, home prices in Canada’s most expensive provinces — Ontario and British Columbia — have taken a substantial hit. But not all provinces are on the same track. In fact, four have seen a jump in prices over the past eight months.

A new report from Zoocasa analyzed the change in the average home price in all 10 provinces from February 2022, when the market hit its high, to October 2022. As to be expected, Ontario suffered the biggest loss, with the average home price there falling $196,400 — an 18.26% change. It was followed by BC with an 8.5% drop, representing a difference of $89,300.

With interest rates up, and likely to continue rising, Canada’s most expensive provinces have unsurprisingly been hit the hardest by decreased demand due to buyers holding off on purchasing now rather than taking on a substantially larger interest rate on an already pricey home. In fact, a recent analysis by Ratehub.ca found that homebuyers with a mortgage in 2022 would pay 250% more in interest alone in the first year of their mortgage compared to a buyer in 2021.

The relatively more affordable provinces of Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta have also seen their prices fall over the past several months, although much more moderately than BC and Ontario. Quebec’s fell by $27,500 while Alberta’s prices are down just $2,100 — a 0.46% decline.

Amidst these losses, Atlantic Canada’s home prices have been resilient, with Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick’s average prices having gone up from February to October. According to the report, this is likely a reflection of “the increasing demand for more affordable housing, as well as out-of-province buyers migrating to more affordable areas.”

PEI has seen the biggest increase, with prices there up $33,300 since February — a 10.1% jump. Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia have seen an almost identical increase in the dollar amount of their homes, going up $16,500 and $16,400, respectively. New Brunswick has seen the smallest increase, with prices there up $4,000.

Looking at prices at a municipal level, Ontario has still seen the most significant losses, and is the only province with major markets that have had their average home prices drop by more than $200,000. The Greater Toronto Area, Hamilton-Burlington, and Kitchener-Waterloo are all down by more than $220,000.

But when it comes to cities that have seen price growth, unlike the provinces, they’re not exclusive to Atlantic Canada. In fact, Victoria, Calgary, and Regina have experienced price growth, with Victoria’s average home price up a substantial $20,600.

https://storeys.com/ontario-bc-home-prices-sink-four-provinces-more-expensive/

[darkharbour]

Is it me or are those Saint John numbers wrong in that table, in the sense that they marked a -0.67% change, but the price numbers they showed increased since February by $49,500?

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

Is it me or are those Saint John numbers wrong in that table, in the sense that they marked a -0.67% change, but the price numbers they showed increased since February by $49,500?

Very true. I just emailed them. others can as well at [email protected]

[KnoxfordGuy]

From Statistics Canada:

Atlantic Canada experiences a recent uptick in retaining skilled immigrants.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221212/dq221212b-eng.htm?HPA=1

In 2015 New Brunswick had a 48% retention rate.
In 2019 it was 72%

The other Atlantic provinces are experiencing much the same.

This is telling me that our population was going to go up without the pandemic. We just got a huge boost.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Statistics Canada has released their quarterly population figures for October 1st.

Canada: 39,292,395 +.9

Newfoundland and Labrador 528,818 +.5
Prince Edward Island 172,707 +1.2
Nova Scotia 1,030,953 +1.1
New Brunswick 820,786 +1.1

[MonctonRad]

The population clock has been updated again (NB at 822,898).

NB is going to crack 823,000 in just a day or two.

It should be remembered that NB just passed 800,000 in March. I can't recall the figure for January 1st, but it was probably in the 795,000 range.

That's about 28,000 new NB residents in only a year. This is pure insanity.

We may see NB at over 1,000,000 before 2030.

I wonder how long before NS catches Saskatchewan????

[bridgeoftea]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The population clock has been updated again (NB at 822,898).

NB is going to crack 823,000 in just a day or two.

It should be remembered that NB just passed 800,000 in March. I can't recall the figure for January 1st, but it was probably in the 795,000 range.

That's about 28,000 new NB residents in only a year. This is pure insanity.

We may see NB at over 1,000,000 before 2030.

I wonder how long before NS catches Saskatchewan????

I feel like as long as growth continues for the big 3 cities with a big focus on housing and jobs, probably quicker than we think!

Definitely feels like a new leaf for New Brunswick with a build it and people will come which definitely didn't feel like that was the case 10 years ago. (could be wrong only been in the province 3.5 years now)

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by bridgeoftea

I feel like as long as growth continues for the big 3 cities with a big focus on housing and jobs, probably quicker than we think!

Definitely feels like a new leaf for New Brunswick with a build it and people will come which definitely didn't feel like that was the case 10 years ago. (could be wrong only been in the province 3.5 years now)

I just hope we start promoting this growth to get more services into the three biggest cities. Moncton is doing OK, but still behind Halifax in terms of variety and quantity of retail available. Fredericton and Saint John are even further behind. It would be nice to get some more options for groceries, clothing, automobile, and more...not just more fast-food outlets. And of course, more flights and airlines!

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

I just hope we start promoting this growth to get more services into the three biggest cities. Moncton is doing OK, but still behind Halifax in terms of variety and quantity of retail available. Fredericton and Saint John are even further behind. It would be nice to get some more options for groceries, clothing, automobile, and more...not just more fast-food outlets. And of course, more flights and airlines!

The services we need more of are not of the retail kind.

[JHikka]

There's tiers to retail as there is with anything else. Halifax is the top tier in Atlantic Canada barring some very rare exceptions. Halifax is a few tiers below Toronto, etc.

Better not to focus on attaining corporate franchises and instead focus on fostering local, community-driven ventures instead. There might not be any fancy new chains in Saint John but there's a very nice Chinese grocery store now Uptown, and many convenience stores are shifting more towards tiny Korean grocery store offerings. Those didn't exist ten years ago and represent the changing diversity of grocery options available to locals.

[bridgeoftea]

Originally Posted by JHikka

There's tiers to retail as there is with anything else. Halifax is the top tier in Atlantic Canada barring some very rare exceptions. Halifax is a few tiers below Toronto, etc.

Better not to focus on attaining corporate franchises and instead focus on fostering local, community-driven ventures instead. There might not be any fancy new chains in Saint John but there's a very nice Chinese grocery store now Uptown, and many convenience stores are shifting more towards tiny Korean grocery store offerings. Those didn't exist ten years ago and represent the changing diversity of grocery options available to locals.

Agree with Freshville, Indian King grocery stores are awesome!
I am sad to have seen the Middle Eastern store near the new Naan Ya Business only last a few months. Was hoping it would be a mainstay too.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Better not to focus on attaining corporate franchises and instead focus on fostering local, community-driven ventures instead. There might not be any fancy new chains in Saint John but there's a very nice Chinese grocery store now Uptown, and many convenience stores are shifting more towards tiny Korean grocery store offerings. Those didn't exist ten years ago and represent the changing diversity of grocery options available to locals.

Retail has become a lot less important than in the past too. People in LA are ordering the same Amazon stuff as people in Boise these days. Then there's a growing blight of luxury retail that's generic and pointless unless you want to signal that you have lots of money to burn. I find the high end areas of a lot of cities, full of businesses you don't find in Atlantic Canada, all feel the same and are boring.

I think even a lot of food stuff has been relatively "democratized" lately. As with luxury retail there's a kind of restaurant that's expensive but not that great. The biggest/best food cities will have the more breadth of good places but smaller places can still have lots of good ones.

And the reality is that people living in say the GTA are not traveling around the whole region every week going to different places. They tend to settle into a local area (east vs. west, 905 vs. 416) most of the time that's much closer in scale to a medium sized city.

[MonctonRad]

N.B. sees record population growth, adding 25,000 people in past year
Statistics Canada figures show province growing faster than national average
Shane Magee · CBC News · Posted: Dec 28, 2022 6:00 AM AT | Last Updated: 6 hours ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-population-increase-1.6696373

Of the 8,725 population increase between July 1 and Oct. 1, 7,460 were from international migration. Another roughly 1,500 people moved to New Brunswick from other provinces and territories.

There were 250 more deaths than births recorded.

Hallman said of the international migrants, 3,300 were immigrants and about 4,200 were non-permanent residents.

"What we've seen since the start of the pandemic, the Maritime provinces in particular have been gaining a lot of people through inter-provincial migration," Hallman said.

A lot of them have been people from Ontario relocating to the Maritimes. Hallman said they can't say for certain what is driving that move, but it could include cheaper housing and the ability to work remotely

[Beaubassin]

Estimates for census subdivisions

• Moncton (C) 85,802 (+4,137) +5.1%
• Saint John (C) 73,611 (+1,759) +2.4%
• Fredericton (C) 66,879 (+1,982) +3.1%
• Dieppe (C) 31,535 (+2,004) +6.8%
• Riverview (TV) 21,352 (+603) +2.9%
• Quispamsis (TV) 19,454 (+308) +1.6%
• Miramichi (C) 18,283 (+231) +1.3%
• Edmundston (C) 17,026 (+163) +1.0%
• Tracadie (RGM) 16,424 (+229) +1.4%
• Bathurst (C) 12,370 (+29) +0.2%
• Rothesay (TV) 12,260 (+113) +0.9%
• Oromocto (TV) 10,020 (+177) +1.8%
• Shediac (TV) 8,182 (+512) +6.7%
• Beaubassin East / Beaubassin-est (RCR) 7,620 (+516) +7.2%
• Sackville (TV) 6,152 (+194) +3.3%
• Woodstock (TV) 5,849 (+198) +3.5%
• Memramcook (VL) 5,352 (+225) +4.4%
• Grand Falls / Grand-Sault (TV) 5,313 (+11) +0.2%

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014201

[Freddypop]

Originally Posted by Beaubassin

Estimates for census subdivisions

• Moncton (C) 85,802 (+4,137) +5.1%
• Saint John (C) 73,611 (+1,759) +2.4%
• Fredericton (C) 66,879 (+1,982) +3.1%
• Dieppe (C) 31,535 (+2,004) +6.8%
• Riverview (TV) 21,352 (+603) +2.9%
• Quispamsis (TV) 19,454 (+308) +1.6%
• Miramichi (C) 18,283 (+231) +1.3%
• Edmundston (C) 17,026 (+163) +1.0%
• Tracadie (RGM) 16,424 (+229) +1.4%
• Bathurst (C) 12,370 (+29) +0.2%
• Rothesay (TV) 12,260 (+113) +0.9%
• Oromocto (TV) 10,020 (+177) +1.8%
• Shediac (TV) 8,182 (+512) +6.7%
• Beaubassin East / Beaubassin-est (RCR) 7,620 (+516) +7.2%
• Sackville (TV) 6,152 (+194) +3.3%
• Woodstock (TV) 5,849 (+198) +3.5%
• Memramcook (VL) 5,352 (+225) +4.4%
• Grand Falls / Grand-Sault (TV) 5,313 (+11) +0.2%

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014201

Add the 4300 souls due to municipal reform that occurred on January 1 this year, Fredericton proper now has a population of approx 71000

[MonctonRad]

The T&T had these little statistical nuggets released by APEC, based on the recent census estimates:

1) - St. John's (NL), 2.3% annual growth rate (219,000), St. John's now accounts for 42% of the total population of NL.
2) - Charlottetown (PE), 4.2% annual growth rate (87,000), #3 growth rate in Canada, now accounts for 51% of the population of PEI.
3) - Halifax (NS), 4.5% annual growth rate (480,000), #2 growth rate in Canada, now accounting for 47% of the total population of NS.
4) - Moncton (NB), 5.4% annual growth rate (172,000), #1 growth rate in Canada, accounting for 21% of the total population of NB.

The primate cities in NS, PEI and NL now all account for more than 40% of the population of their respective provinces, with Charlottetown actually accounting for the majority of the Island population.

NB is of course different with three relatively equivalent cities, but, lumped together, NB also has close to 50% of the population living in larger urban centres.

EDIT:

Here's some more APEC info from Huddle - a good article.

Moncton, Halifax Lead Canada In Population Growth
Moncton, Halifax, and Charlottetown are leading Canada in population growth as an increasing number of young adults chose to make Atlantic Canada their home.
https://huddle.today/2023/01/26/moncton-halifax-lead-canada-in-population-growth/

[Mattyyy]

Statscan has released their population estimates as per July 1st, 2022 and the numbers are impressive:

- Moncton 171,608 (162,824 in 2021) = + 8,724 (5%)
- Halifax 480,582 (459,869 in 2021) = +20,713 (5%)
- Fredericton 116,159 (112,428 in 2021) = +3,731 (3%)

These are only a few examples and I don't have time to run through other cities.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710013501

[MonctonRad]

At this rate, Moncton will have 200,000 people by 2026.

[mylesmalley]

Originally Posted by Mattyyy

- Moncton 171,608 (162,824 in 2021) = + 8,724 (5%)

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710013501

I know these are estimates, but that's just unbelievable growth in such a short period of time.

We've flown past Trois-Rivières and Saguenay. Basically tied with Guelph. Rushing up toward Kingston, Sudbury, who we'll pass next year if this trend continues.